Sample Category Title

US non-farm payroll employment rose 139k in May, above expectation of 130k. That's slightly below average monthly gain of 149k over the prior 12 months.

Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, matched expectations. Participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9% yoy.

Full US NFP release here.

Gold is moving within a narrow range in European trading on Friday, but still being constructive after Thursday’s strong upside rejection at pivotal $3400 zone and daily close in red.

Near-term action stays around support at $3355 (broken Fibo 61.8%) and above 10DMA ($3335) which gives a dash of optimism, as several attacks already failed at this zone.

Technical structure on daily chart remains predominantly bullish (despite the evident loss of positive momentum) however, negative signals are developing on hourly chart (the price broke below the base of hourly Ichimoku cloud / 14-momentum is heading south and approaching the centreline), but this is initial signal that still requires confirmation.

Fundamentals are likely to be metal’s main driver again, after surprise talk between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi cooled trade fears and US jobless claims disappointed on jump to new multi-month high.

All eyes are on US May Nonfarm payrolls (130K f/c vs Apr 177K), with gold expected to receive strong boost if May numbers disappoint, while smaller negative impact could be expected on upbeat results.

The data are to provide more clues about the condition in the US labor market that will contribute to Fed’s short-term policy outlook.

First support lays at $3335 (10DMA) followed by $3318 (broken triangle’s upper trendline) and breakpoints at $3300 (psychological) and $3290 (daily cloud top).

Immediate resistance lays at $3368 (hourly cloud top, followed by $3375 (session high) and upper triggers at $3392 (Jun 3 high) $3400/03 (psychological / yesterday’s spike high) and $3310 (Fibo 76.4% of $3500/$3120 correction).

Res: 3375; 3403; 3410; 3437.
Sup: 3335; 3318; 3300; 3290.

The USD/JPY pair rose to 143.80 on Friday, marking a second consecutive day of yen depreciation. The decline comes as traders adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of a key report on US employment figures.

Market cautious ahead of NFP; political factors also in play

Investors are focused on the imminent US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. In the meantime, the market has turned cautious, favouring the US dollar.

Political developments have also contributed. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a telephone conversation and agreed to continue trade negotiations. However, no concrete outcomes or details were disclosed, offering only limited clarity to the geopolitical picture.

Weak domestic data adds pressure on the yen

On the domestic front, Japan posted an unexpected decline in consumer spending for April. Household spending fell by 0.1% y/y, reversing the 1.4% growth in March and missing the 1.0% increase forecast. The drop highlights the impact of rising prices on domestic demand, adding to uncertainty over the pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary tightening.

Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank remains prepared to raise interest rates if the economic and inflation outlook warrants it. The BoJ continues to pursue a measured yet steady approach to policy normalisation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to consolidate around 143.33. The current move is heading towards 144.23. A downward breakout from this range would pave the way for a decline to 142.20, with a possible extension to 140.50. Conversely, an upward breakout could trigger a bullish move towards 146.25. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply upwards, indicating growing bullish potential.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 143.33. The structure features a completed growth wave to 143.96, followed by a correction (test from above) to 143.33. The next likely move is an upward push to 144.23, expected to occur today. This may then be followed by a decline to 142.20 and potentially further to 140.50. The Stochastic oscillator supports this setup, with its signal line above 50 and trending towards 80, indicating strong short-term buying pressure.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid cautious market positioning ahead of US labour data and lingering trade-related uncertainty. Meanwhile, weak Japanese spending data raises questions over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike. Technically, 144.23 is the next key resistance, while 142.20 and 140.50 serve as potential support levels in the event of a reversal. The market’s direction will likely hinge on the outcome of the US NFP report.

Eurozone retail sales rose just 0.1% mom in April, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% mom rise. Modest gains in food, drink, and tobacco sales (+0.5%) and a solid rebound in automotive fuel purchases (+1.3%) were offset by a -0.3% decline in non-food product sales.

Across the EU, retail sales rose a more robust 0.7% mom, but the underlying data painted a sharply divided picture. Poland led with a remarkable 7.5% surge, followed by Slovakia and Sweden at 2.4%. In contrast, Germany—the region’s largest economy—saw a -1.1% drop, dragging on the overall Eurozone figure.

Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

One day after ECB delivered its eighth rate cut in this easing cycle, a coordinated message emerged from several Governing Council members: ECB is not committing to further immediate action.

Latvian central banker Martins Kazaks was particularly blunt, stating that markets should not expect a rate cut at every meeting. He emphasized the value of preserving "policy space".

"We don’t get much data between now and the July meeting so it may well be the case that we pause," Kazaks said. "But uncertainty remains very high, the political situation may change every day. So forward guidance isn’t your friend in these circumstances."

Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras echoed this sentiment, calling ECB’s work on inflation “nearly done,” while warning that further cuts would require growth to fall short of current forecasts.

Estonian Governor Madis Muller also struck a cautious tone, suggesting the rate-cutting cycle may be “almost finished,” but acknowledged that visibility is limited. All three policymakers stressed that decisions ahead would remain data-driven, and that it was too early to rule out any scenario.

French Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus declared victory over inflation. However, both underlined the importance of maintaining flexibility in the face of mounting global uncertainty. Villeroy also reassured that “We have tools to react if there's deflation.”

Silver has experienced a significant breakout, decisively surpassing its previous high from October 2024. This signals the start of the next upward leg in its price trajectory. From the last notable low on April 7, 2025, the rally has been unfolding as an impulsive wave with an extended structure, often referred to as a “nest.” Beginning from the April 7, 2025 low, wave (1) reached its peak at 33.684. It was then followed by a corrective pullback in wave (2), which concluded at 31.635. From this point, silver resumed its upward momentum in wave (3). The metal displays an internal subdivision characteristic of another impulsive wave.

Breaking down the progression from wave (2) low, the initial wave 1 advanced to 33.69. A subsequent dip in wave 2 found support at 32.58, as illustrated in the accompanying 1-hour chart. The metal then continued its ascent, nesting higher once again. From the wave 2 low, the sub-wave ((i)) peaked at 33.56. A pullback in wave ((ii)) then followed which bottomed out at 32.67. Silver then resumed its upward trend in wave ((iii)). Wave (i) of ((iii)) concluded at 33.49 and wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 32.75.

Looking ahead, silver is expected to achieve two additional highs to complete wave (iii) before encountering a corrective pullback in wave (iv). Afterwards, the upward trajectory should resume. In the near term, as long as the pivotal low at 32.58 remains intact, any dips are likely to attract buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swings, setting the stage for further upside potential. This technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for silver, with the current structure supporting continued gains in the near future.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart

XAGUSD Elliott Wave Technical Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgT5TRbkU24

The major currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, are showing restrained movement as markets await the release of key US employment data. Investors remain cautious, assessing the outlook for monetary policy in light of recent central bank decisions.

Today, market participants will focus on the release of the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. According to the consensus forecast, employment is expected to increase by 127K jobs in May, down from 177K in April and below the 12-month average of 156,800. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2%, consistent with recent months.

The anticipated slowdown in job growth is likely tied to ongoing economic uncertainty driven by trade tensions and the imposition of new tariffs. Weak ADP employment data, which showed a gain of only 37K jobs in May, has further raised concerns about the labour market. If the NFP data comes in below expectations, it may reinforce forecasts of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.15%. This marks the eighth rate reduction since May 2024, driven by a slowdown in eurozone inflation to 1.9%, below the ECB’s 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the bank is in a “strong position” to navigate the current global economic uncertainty, including trade tensions with the United States. This contributed to the strengthening of the EUR/USD pair to the 1.1490 level. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a potential retest of the April high around 1.1570.

Key events that may impact EUR/USD pricing today include:

09:00 (GMT+3): Germany Industrial Production
11:30 (GMT+3): Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
12:00 (GMT+3): Eurozone GDP
12:00 (GMT+3): Eurozone Retail Sales for April

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading around 143.80, showing signs of consolidation after a recent decline. Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds have dropped to 2.88%, and 10-year yields to 1.46%, reflecting rising bond prices. The decline in yields is linked to expectations of reduced issuance of ultra-long bonds by Japan’s Ministry of Finance following weak demand at recent auctions. This has strengthened the yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

Nevertheless, buyers are managing to hold the price above the 142.50 support level, which could support a renewed upward move.

Key events that may influence USD/JPY pricing today:

15:30 (GMT+3): US Average Hourly Earnings
15:30 (GMT+3): US Nonfarm Payrolls
15:30 (GMT+3): US Unemployment Rate

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Yesterday, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time since May 2024. According to ForexFactory, the main refinancing rate was lowered from 2.40% to 2.15% (having stood at 4.50% in May 2024).

According to Reuters:

→ ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that interest rates are now at a “good level”, despite the extremely high uncertainty caused by tariff threats from President Donald Trump.

→ Following the press conference, markets interpreted the message as a sign that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates again at its next meeting in July.

In response to the ECB's decision, the EUR/USD rate jumped to its highest level in a month and a half, but later retreated (as indicated by the arrow) back to previous levels.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

Four days ago, while analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:

→ drew an ascending channel;

→ suggested that bullish momentum could push the EUR/USD rate up to the psychological level of 1.1500 during the current week.

In fact, at yesterday’s peak, the rate came very close to 1.1500. However, a candlestick with a long upper shadow had formed on the EUR/USD chart, by the end of the day. Additionally, this morning, the 1.1450 level has acted as a resistance zone.

This suggests bearish activity, which could pull the rate down towards the lower boundary of the local channel (outlined in black), and possibly even attempt a breakout below it.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.57; (P) 194.54; (R1) 195.80; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35. However, firm break of 191.86 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.25; (P) 163.96; (R1) 165.04; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the upside with break of 164.24. Firm break of 165.19 will resume whole rally from 154.77 and target 166.67 resistance next. For now further rise is expected as long as 162.87 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.