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USD/JPY gyrated in range of 142.10/148.64 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 146.27 will target 148.64 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 139.87. Nevertheless, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to 139.87 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.17) and even below.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3592 last week, but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3389 support holds. Break of 1.3592 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3442 from 1.3138 at 1.3874. However, decisive break of 1.3389 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2866) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, for now, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are still seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. However, firm break of 1.4248 resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480) will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

Price actions from 0.8038 are seen as a corrective pattern to the decline from 0.9200, which might still be extending. On the downside, below 0.8187 will bring retest of 0.8038 low. On the upside, above 0.8346 will bring stronger rebound to 0.8475. But after all, larger down trend is expected to resume after the correction completes.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8732) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6536 but quickly retreated. Still, downside is contained by 0.6406 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week, and further rise is mildly in favor. Above 0.6536 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6406 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6536 at 0.6298.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6441) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fail through 0.5913 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD rebounded after edging lower to 1.3685, but upside was limited well below 1.4014 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and near term outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 1.3685 will resume whole fall from 1.4791 towards 1.3418 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3485) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

GBP/JPY rebounded notably last week but failed to break through 196.38 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35. However, firm break of 191.86 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 175.85).

EUR/JPY extended the rebound from 161.06 last week but failed to break through 165.19 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 164.24 will bring retest of 165.19 resistance first. Firm break there will resume while rise from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 161.06 will resume the decline from 165.19 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.91).

EUR/GBP's rebounded after dipping to 0.8354 last week. The development suggests that a short term bottom was formed, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 0.8458 resistance, and then 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Nevertheless, break of 0.8354 will resume the decline from 0.8737 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. There is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.7245 resumed last week and the development suggests that fall from 1.8554 might have completed as a correction. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, however, break of 1.7460 support will bring retest of 1.7245 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 is expected after the whole corrective pattern from there completes. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6240) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, firm break of 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum will argue that it's indeed resuming the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low).

EUR/CHF continued to gyrate inside established range last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rise from 0.9218 might continue, either as a correction to fall from 0.9660, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. On the upside, above 0.9419 will target 0.9445 resistance and above. Nevertheless, on the downside, firm break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9527) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9919) holds.