Sample Category Title

As shown on the EUR/USD chart today, the euro rose to a 4-week high against the US dollar this morning.

The euro's strength relative to the US dollar is supported by traders’ expectations ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision, scheduled for Thursday at 15:15 GMT+3.

This upcoming event is notable not only because the ECB is expected to cut rates from 2.40% to 2.15% (for the seventh consecutive time), but also due to the broader context shaped by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s recent remarks on the euro’s status as a reserve currency.

At the same time, the US dollar is weakening amid growing trade concerns—on Friday, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%. He also accused China of breaching the recent trade truce.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

Seven days ago, when analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:

→ observed bullish sentiment;

→ highlighted the importance of the 1.1400 resistance level;

→ suggested that bears might attempt to strike back.

Since then, the price has pulled back from the mentioned level (as indicated by the arrow), but found support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The current bullish momentum could push EUR/USD towards the psychological level of 1.1500 during the week ahead.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Asian Market Wrap

Markets are on the backfoot this morning as US tariffs and trade tensions are once again in focus, denting risk appetite.

The Asian session reflected this with risk assets struggling while haven flows have returned with a bang. Gold is up as much as $60 from Friday's close, trading around $3350 an ounce at the time of writing.

Tariffs are back in the spotlight after recent legal debates about Trump-era tariffs, which are at record-high levels. Investors worry these tariffs could push the US into a recession. At the same time, uncertainties around US trade policies and talks with countries like China are adding to the tension.

On top of this, a major tax plan is being watched closely, as it could significantly increase the US deficit.

In Asia, Steel and Aluminum stocks fell sharply following President Trump's plans to raise tariffs from 50% to 250%.

Elsewhere, US Equity futures were trading lower with the S&P 500 down about 0.5% and European indices looking weak heading into the European Open.

The US Dollar index remains under pressure while the safe haven Yen rose on haven demand. Crude Oil prices were also higher overnight as OPEC+ expanded production less than expected.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

On the data front, Asia's factory activity slowed down in May due to weak demand in China and the effects of U.S. tariffs, according to private surveys. This points to a worsening outlook for the region, which used to grow quickly and heavily reliant on exports.

The European Open

European shares enjoyed a positive month of May but have opened lower this morning.

The European STOXX 600 index dropped by 0.2% early in the day. Steel companies like ArcelorMittal and Thyssenkrupp saw their shares fall by 1% and 1.1%, respectively. Tariffs affecting cars also hit automakers hard, causing their sector to drop by 1.2%.

On the data front, Swiss GDP was released a short while ago and showed the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, which had slower growth of 0.3%. However, this growth was less than the earlier estimate of 0.7%.

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, and PMI data will be in focus today as a host of countries report their final numbers.

Following the drop off in Asia, it will be intriguing to see how the numbers shake up but there could be discrepancies as many companies sought to beat tariffs and upped their manufacturing activity in recent weeks.

Beyond that markets will be hoping that risk appetite is restored as the day progresses at least on the tariff front. China continues to talk diplomacy on the tariff front but did face accusations from US President Trump on Friday of not following through on its promise to scale back tariffs. The Chinese responded that they had maintained communication on trade with the United States

Developments in this regard is likely to be the major driving force for risk sentiment today and for the first half of the week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - DAX Index

From a technical standpoint, the DAX had printed a fresh high last week around the 24387 but continues to struggle to hold convincingly above the 24000 handle.

The index is down around 0.8% at the time of writing with the 20-day MA currently providing support at the 23786 handle.

A break of this level could potentially open up further downside as risk appetite remains under pressure with support resting at 23500, 23200 and the 50 day MA around 22711.

If sentiment does improve, a move higher back toward the 24000 handle could materialize but this is dependent on developments around the US-China situation once more as well tariffs on steel and aluminum proposed by US President Donald Trump.

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Trade safe!

UK manufacturing activity remained in contraction in May, with PMI finalized at 46.4, up modestly from April’s 45.4.

The data indicate that the sector continues to face “major challenges,” according to S&P Global’s Rob Dobson, citing turbulent domestic and global conditions, trade uncertainty, subdued client confidence, and increased wage costs tied to tax changes.

Still, there are early signs that the worst of the downturn may be easing. The indexes for output and new orders have risen for two consecutive months and were stronger than the initial flash estimates, hinting at possible stabilization.

However, Dobson warned that the sector could either steady or slip further depending on how trading conditions evolve in the coming months.

Full UK PMI manufacturing release here.

Eurozone PMI manufacturing was finalized at 49.4 in May, up from April’s 49.0 and marking the highest level in 33 months.

Production increased across all four major economies: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, supporting economist Cyrus de la Rubia's view that the recovery is gaining traction.

De la Rubia also noted that output has now risen for three straight months, reinforcing the view that the recovery is gaining traction. Historical data suggests a 72% chance of another output increase next month.

Falling input costs, driven by lower energy prices, have enabled manufacturers to cut selling prices again, offering the ECB more flexibility for its expected interest rate cuts.

However, the outlook remains clouded by external risks, particularly the threat of higher US tariffs on EU goods. Any escalation in transatlantic trade tensions could quickly derail the fragile rebound.

Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

Switzerland's GDP expanded by 0.5% qoq in Q1, beating market expectations of 0.4% qoq. When adjusted for the impact of major sporting events, GDP growth came in even stronger at 0.8% qoq. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs noted that the services sector posted broad-based gains and domestic demand remained firm, contributing to the overall solid performance.

A standout was the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, which surged 7.5% in the quarter, driven by a sharp rise in pharmaceutical exports. This lifted overall manufacturing output by 2.1% and goods exports by 5.0%. Notably, exports to the US jumped significantly, suggesting possible front-loading in anticipation of evolving US trade policy.

Full Swiss GDP release here.

Gold started a fresh increase above the $3,300 resistance level. WTI Crude Oil is gaining bullish momentum and might even test $62.75.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $3,250 zone against the US Dollar.
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $3,318 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude Oil climbed above the $60.50 and $60.80 resistance levels.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $60.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $3,250 zone, formed a base, and started a fresh increase above the $3,280 level.

The bulls cleared the $3,300 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was also a move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,331 swing high to the $3,271 low. The RSI is now above 50 and the price could aim for more gains.

Immediate resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,331 swing high to the $3,271 low at $3,318. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,318.

The next major resistance is near the $3,330 level. An upside break above the $3,330 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,382. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,400 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $3,300 zone. If there is a downside break below the $3,300 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $3,270 support. The next major support sits at $3,250. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,220 level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a fresh upward move from $59.45 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $60.00 resistance.

The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $62.76 swing high to the $59.45 low. The price even climbed above the 50-hour simple moving average. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $60.80.

It tested the $61.50 resistance zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $62.76 swing high to the $59.45 low.

The RSI is now near the 50 level and the price could aim for more gains. If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $62.00. The next major resistance is near the $62.75 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $63.45 level or even $65.00.

Conversely, the price might correct gains and test the $60.80 support level. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near the $59.45 zone, below which the price could test the $58.00 zone.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $56.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.50 support zone.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

‘Trade noise’ is moving again to the fore, further complicating any eco-driven market reaction function. Soft US data (US Q1 GDP was upwardly revised to -0.2% Q/Qa, but with a setback in private consumption and a soft core PCE deflator; claims were also higher than expected) triggered a setback in US yields on Thursday. April US PCE deflators, remained benign despite uncertainty on trade/tariffs and confirmed this yield decline/steepening on Friday. US yield changes ranged between 4.1 bps (2-y) and +1.4 bps (30-y). After a decline on Thursday, German yields ceded less than 1bp across the curve on Friday. German May inflation was close to expectations (0.2% M/M and 2.1 Y/Y). Aside from the data, headlines on trade showed that uncertainty on the topic is here to stay. A federal US court of appeal paused an earlier court ruling assessing the Liberation Day tariffs as being illegal. Still, the essence on the issue remains subject to further court decisions. On Friday, US president Trump openly accused China off violating the Geneva trade truce reached earlier last month. Comments from the US administration indicated that China exports of rare earths was a source of conflict. Uncertainty caused some investor caution going into the weekend (Nasdaq -0.32%). The dollar basically closed the session little changed (DXY 99.33, EUR/USD 1.135).

Trade-related uncertainty continues dominating the market talk this morning. US president Trump announced to raise the import duties on the import of steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% staring June 4. Chinese officials equally accused the US of violating the consensus reached in Geneva, warning they might take additional action to defend their interests. The flaring up of trade-related tensions causes markets to start the week with a risk-off bias. (Nikkei -1.3%, S&P 500 future -0.5%). The dollar is losing ground against the likes of the yen (USD/JPY 143.4) and the euro (EUR/USD 1.1375). For now, the uncertainty again hardly helps US Treasuries, with yields even rising marginally this morning. Trade uncertainty probably will continue to set the tone for trading today though the US manufacturing ISM is worth keeping an eye on. Later this week, we have US JOTS job openings (tomorrow), the ADP report and services ISM (Wednesday) and the payrolls (Friday). A big negative labour market surprise probably remains necessary for the Fed (and markets) to change their assessment on a cautious Fed approach also in H2. In Europe, May CPI inflation tomorrow (expected headline 2% and core 2.5%) is the final input ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy meeting. For now, we see stocks and the dollar as most vulnerable to the trade noise. The impact, especially on US interest markets is far less straightforward.

News & Views

The eight OPEC+ countries that in 2023 announced additional voluntary production cuts, will continue returning to normal output levels. In December of last year, they agreed to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2mn b/d of production cuts. They started the process with a larger than expected 320k b/d in April, followed by 411k b/d increases in May and June. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman on Saturday agreed on a similar output hike for July (411k b/d) on Saturday. The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions, allowing for flexibility to continue to support oil market stability. Oil prices trade higher this morning (Brent > $64/b) as markets were wrongfooted by earlier rumours that the eight OPEC+ countries could speed up the reversal of their additional cuts with an output hike of up to 600k b/d in for July.

Polish PM Tusk’s pro-European candidate Trzaskowski narrowly lost the second round of Polish presidential elections. The Warsaw mayor lost against the candidate of the previous, nationalist, Law and Justice party (PiS). Nawrocki won 50.9% of the vote against 49.1% for Trzaskowski. The outcome deals a blow to Tusk’s reform agenda which has been partly held hostage by a presidential veto since taking office in 2023. The previous Polish president, Duda, another PiS nominee, blocked amongst others the planned judicial overhaul. The Polish zloty loses ground this morning with EUR/PLN jumping from 4.24 to 4.27. A test of EUR/PLN 4.30 is in the cards..

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.24; (P) 193.95; (R1) 194.51; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 196.38. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35. However, firm break of 191.86 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.83; (P) 163.45; (R1) 164.09; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral. On the upside, above 164.24 will bring retest of 165.19 resistance first. Firm break there will resume while rise from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 161.06 will resume the decline from 165.19 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8412; (P) 0.8425; (R1) 0.8446; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.8354 short term bottom should continue to 0.8458 resistance, and then 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Nevertheless, break of 0.8354 will resume the decline from 0.8737 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. There is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.