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Gold Dips Remain Attractive—Are Bigger Gains Just Around The Corner?
Key Highlights
- Gold found support near $3,200 and started a fresh increase.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,285 on the 4-hour chart.
- EUR/USD is still consolidating gains below the 1.1420 resistance zone.
- WTI Crude Oil prices could start another decline below the $57.00 level.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Gold prices remained supported above $3,200. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $3,240 and $3,250 resistance levels.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price settled above the $3,300 level, the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours), and the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours). There was a clear move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,500 swing high to the $3,201 low.
There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,285 on the same chart. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $3,430 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,500 swing high to the $3,201 low.
The next major resistance sits near the $3,460 level. A clear move above the $3,460 resistance could open the doors for more upsides. The next major resistance could be $3,480, above which the price could rally toward the milestone level of $3,500.
On the downside, initial support is near the $3,350 level. The first key support is near $3,315. The next major support is near the $3,305 level. The main support is now $3,300. A downside break below the $3,300 support might call for more downsides. The next major support is near the $3,200 level.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a consolidation phase and might soon aim for a fresh increase if it clears the 1.1420 resistance.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- BoE Interest Rate Decision - Forecast 4.25%, versus 4.5% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 230K, versus 241K previous.
Elliott Wave Perspective: Oil’s (CL) Rally Likely to Stall, Signaling Deeper Losses
The current market cycle for Light Crude Oil (CL), starting from its high on January 15, 2025, is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave pattern. This technical structure suggests a corrective phase with alternating declines and recoveries. From the peak, the price dropped to 55.12, completing wave (W), followed by a rally to 65.07, marking the end of wave (X). The decline has since resumed in wave (Y), which is breaking down into a WXY pattern, indicating further downside momentum.
Within wave (Y), the initial decline, wave W, is forming as a zigzag. From the wave (X) high, the price fell to 61.53 (wave (i)), then rallied to 63.92 (wave (ii)). The decline continued in wave (iii) to 56.39, followed by a bounce to 59.87 in wave (iv). The final drop in wave (v) reached 55.30, completing wave ((a)) in a higher degree. Currently, wave ((b)) is unfolding as a zigzag, with its first leg, wave (a), reaching 60.26. A pullback in wave (b) is expected soon, followed by a rise in wave (c) to complete wave ((b)).
Looking ahead, as long as the key resistance at 65.07 holds, any rally is likely to fail after 3, 7, or 11 swings, leading to further declines. Traders should watch these levels closely for potential selling opportunities.
Oil 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart
CL Video Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JERYX14Y-5I
EURNZD Wave Analysis
EURNZD: ⬆️ Buy
- EURNZD reversed from support level 1.8845
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9200
EURNZD currency pair recently reversed from the support level 1.8845 intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.8845 stopped the C-wave of the active medium-term ABC correction (4) from the start of April.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURNZD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.9200.
AUDCHF Wave Analysis
AUDCHF: ⬇️ Sell
- AUDCHF reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5235
AUDCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the major resistance level 0.5375 (former multi-month low from last August), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous impulse wave C of the short-term ABC correction 4 from the start of April.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.5375, AUDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5235 (low of the previous correction b).
NZDUSD Wave Analysis
NZDUSD: ⬇️ Sell
- NZDUSD reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5900
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.6020 (which has been reversing the price from November), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous short-term correction 2 from the end of April.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.6020 and the bullish USD sentiment seen today, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5900.
EURAUD Wave Analysis
EURAUD: ⬆️ Buy
- EURAUD reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.7700
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the support level 1.7415 (former resistance from the start of March), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the support level 1.7415 and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURAUD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.7700.
Fed stands pat, notes solid economy and elevated inflation
As expected, Fed held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a unanimous vote from the FOMC.
In its post-meeting statement, Fed acknowledged that recent data have been influenced by fluctuations in net exports, but emphasized that overall economic activity continues to expand at a "solid pace."
The statement reinforced Fed’s confidence in the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate has "stabilized at a low level" and that conditions "remain solid."
Inflation was described as “somewhat elevated.”
Full statement below.
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
FOMC Ahead: Will Powell Surrender the Dollar to Trump?
Markets are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Fed meeting. Economists and analysts are unanimous that no rate changes are expected, and the rate will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Despite developments in India and Pakistan and news of upcoming talks between the US and China, the market is poised for strong moves, remaining in a state of uncertainty about the central bank’s next steps.
Since Trump took office, the Fed has tightened its interest rate policy in response to the pro-inflationary risks expected from tariffs. Rising inflation expectations in the US confirm this trend.
Recent GDP and trade balance data showed an increase in imports before tariffs were imposed, which has a negative effect on the economy. However, this effect can be seen because of strong demand supported by positive employment data.
Rate expectations for the June meeting shifted in favour of ‘no change’, with a 70% probability of such an outcome versus 0.8% a month earlier. This supported the US currency. The DXY index remains at the same level as on April 11th after declining due to trade conflicts. The Fed may maintain a cautious tone on inflation, which will support the USD, but tariff disputes are the main influence on the USD exchange rate.
Since the beginning of the year, USD declines have clearly correlated with escalating tariff threats. If Powell complies with Trump’s demands and outlines the need to cut rates soon, this could lead to a USD sell-off. Historically, this behaviour has been accompanied by consolidation and continued rate cuts rather than an immediate rebound. This would also support the stock market.
However, such a reversal of events would contradict Powell’s previous statements and is not supported by significant economic data.
