Sample Category Title

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6438 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6296) holds. Above 0.6438 will resume the rebound from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) holds, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6764) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3780 last week but recovered since then. A short term bottom could be formed on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Further rebound is in favor this week. However, upside should be limited by 1.4150 support turned resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3780 at 1.4166). On the downside, firm break of 1.3780 will resume the whole fall from 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3464) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

GBP/JPY's rebound from 184.35 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 195.95 resistance next. Firm break there will suggest that choppy decline from 199.79 has also finished too. On the downside, below 189.28 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 175.27).

EUR/JPY's rebound from 158.27 extended higher last week but upside is limited below 164.16 so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 164.16 will resume whole rise from 154.77. Next target will be 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. However, break of 158.27 will bring deeper fall back to 154.40/77 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.44).

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8737 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8518 support holds. On the upside, 0.8622 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.8737 first. Firm break there will resume the larger rally from 0.8221. However, sustained break of 0.8518 will bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8447).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's consolidation from 1.8854 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, above 1.8014 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.8554 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 1.7750 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7354).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6199) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, firm break of the above mention 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum will argue that it's indeed resuming the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low).

EUR/CHF's stronger than expected rebound last week suggests that fall from 0.9660 has already completed at 0.9218, ahead of 0.9204 low. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. In either case, further rally is expected this week as long as 0.9336 support holds, towards 0.9660. However, break of 0.9336 will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9962) holds.

Global risk sentiment showed further improvement last week, with stock markets around the world posting impressive gains. Although headlines continued to focus on the confusing state of U.S.-China trade tensions, there was quiet but notable progress on multiple trade fronts, including US talks with Japan, South Korea and India.

US equities rebounded alongside the global rally even though they still lack the decisive momentum needed to confirm that a durable bottom has been established. European markets, on the other hand, painted a far more encouraging picture.

The strength of the rebound in European equities suggests that the worst of the April selloff may already be behind us. Moreover, there is a growing sense that the sharpest phase of the tariff crisis has passed, and that incremental improvements could take root from here.

The shift in sentiment was clearly reflected in the currency markets too. Kiwi ended the week as the strongest performer, followed by Aussie and Sterling. All three currencies benefited from the rebound in risk appetite, with investors rotating out of safe-haven assets and into higher-yielding or growth-linked currencies. On the other end, the safe-haven trio—Swiss Franc, Yen, and Euro—underperformed, as investors rotated away from defensive assets amid easing fears. Dollar and Loonie finished in the middle of the pack.

While the equity rally suggests a return of broader risk appetite, investor interest in US assets has yet to fully recover. This is likely due to ongoing concerns over U.S. policy consistency and the uncertain path for trade negotiations. Until clearer signals emerge from Washington and stronger technical confirmations develop in US stock markets, Dollar may continue to lag behind the recovery seen elsewhere.

Markets Rally on Trade Progress, But Major Hurdles with China and EU Remain

Global stock markets extended their strong rally last week. There seems to be growing optimism that the worst phase of the tariff crisis may be behind us, at least for now. Trade negotiations appear to be picking up momentum across several fronts, offering hope for partial resolutions. Recent economic data, particularly PMI surveys from the Eurozone and the US, suggest that businesses have been bracing well for uncertainty, cushioning the blow from trade tensions.

In an interview with Time magazine on Friday, US President Donald Trump said he expects "many" trade deals to fall into place over the next three to four weeks. Positive signals are emerging from several bilateral channels too. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa is set to visit Washington this week for a second round of talks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted that a US-South Korea trade deal could be finalized as early as next week. US and India are reported to have agreed on the terms for a bilateral deal covering trade in goods, services, and critical sectors like e-commerce and minerals. Switzerland also announced it was among a group of 15 countries given "somewhat preferential treatment" in tariff talks, with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter indicating that the 90-day truce could be extended for active negotiating partners.

However, not all fronts are moving smoothly. Despite initial discussions, talks between the US and the EU have yet to yield tangible compromises. Progress remains slow, even in setting a basic framework for formal negotiations. The slow movement with Europe highlights that achieving broad global de-escalation is far from guaranteed.

Meanwhile, the situation with China remains the murkiest. Rumors continue to swirl about informal discussions, but no clear confirmation has been provided by either side. Trump insists that some communication with Beijing is ongoing, while Chinese officials deny that any talks are happening. Although there were earlier hopes for de-escalation, Trump has reiterated that tariffs on China will remain in place unless "they give us something substantial."

Without a clear breakthrough or even a defined negotiation channel, US-China trade tensions remain a major overhang for global markets, tempering some of the broader optimism.

European Strength Offers Hope, Caution Persists for US Indexes

While US stocks have staged a strong rebound recently, the technical backdrop remains somewhat unconvincing. The recovery lacks decisive confirmation, particularly in DOW. In contrast, the outperformance seen in European markets is offering hope that the worst of the market correction could already be behind us. Particularly in the UK and Germany, technical signals suggest that early April's steep selloff may have been a medium-term shakeout rather than the start of a long-term bearish trend.

In the UK, FTSE 's breach of 55 D EMA (now at 8420.51) and break of 55 W EMA (now at 8260.66) suggest that corrective fall from 8900.82 has already completed at 7554.83. Price actions from 8908.82 is likely just a medium term consolidations pattern, rather than a long term bearish trend reversal. The range of the consolidations should be set between 38.2% retracement of 4898.79 to 8902.82 at 7376.99 and 8908.82.

Nevertheless, for the near term, while further rise could be seen as long as 8166.53 support holds, FTSE should start to lose momentum above 55 D EMA.

Germany’s DAX tells a similar story. The index’s corrective fall from the 23476.01 has likely completed at 18489.91. What we are seeing now is a medium-term consolidation rather than a full trend reversal. The range is set between 38.2% retracement of 8255.65 to 23476.01 at 17661.83 and 23476.01.

For the near term, further rise is in favor as long as 21044.61 support hold. But DAX should lose momentum as it approaches 23476.01 high.

Turning to the US, developments in Europe suggest that DOW may eventually find solid support from 38.2% retracement of 18213.65 to 45073.63 at 34813.12 to contain downside even in case of another fall, should another selloff occur. Still, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 41361.53) is needed to indicate that fall from 45703.63 has completed. Or risk will remain on the downside for the near term.

NASDAQ's picture is a little bit more promising than DOW. Firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 17604.27) will indicate that fall from 2024.58 has completed at 14783.03, after defending 38.2% retracement of 6631.42 to 20204.58 at 15019.63. That should set the range for medium term consolidations for NASDAQ.

Dollar Struggles Despite Risk Stabilization, Policy Uncertainty Remains a Drag

While risk sentiment has shown signs of stabilizing in global markets, and even hints at a return of risk appetite, this does not necessarily imply a renewed interest in US assets. In particular, both the Dollar and US. Treasuries continue to face headwinds until investors see more policy consistency from the Trump administration. Markets remain wary of abrupt shifts in trade policy, tariff threats, and broader economic strategies, which cloud the overall investment climate for Dollar-based assets.

Another important factor is the evolving US trade balance. Should the Trump administration succeed in narrowing the US trade deficit, there could be a meaningful structural impact on the demand for Dollar-denominated assets. A narrower deficit would mean fewer surplus Dollars circulating abroad to be recycled into US Treasuries and other assets, potentially pushing yields higher and softening the Dollar's appeal at the same time, particularly if fiscal deficits remain large.

Technically, Dollar Index's recovery from 97.92 short term bottom is lacking decisive momentum. As long as 100.27 resistance holds, near term risk will remain on the downside for another fall through 97.92 sooner rather than later. Break of 97.92 will pave the way to 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97 next.

Nevertheless, firm break of 100.27 would set the stage for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60, even still as a corrective move.

NZD/JPY Extends Rebound, Bullish Reversal Hinges on 87.35 Break

NZD/JPY extended the rebound from 79.79 last week as risk sentiment continued to improve. The breach of falling trend line resistance is a tentative sign that fall from 92.45 has completed at 79.79. Further rise is now in favor as long as 83.88 support holds.

On the upside, decisive break of 87.35 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 99.01 to 79.79 at 87.13) will argue that corrective decline from 99.01 has already completed too. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 91.66.

However, rejection by 87.13/35 will keep near term outlook bearish. Break of 83.88 support will bring retest of 79.79, and possibly resumption of the down trend from 99.01 too.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF's stronger than expected rebound last week suggests that fall from 0.9660 has already completed at 0.9218, ahead of 0.9204 low. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. In either case, further rally is expected this week as long as 0.9336 support holds, towards 0.9660. However, break of 0.9336 will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9962) holds.

Monday, Apr 28, 2025

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Friday, May 2, 2025

• Global stocks saw a positive week due to easing US-China trade war concerns, despite mixed messages from President Trump.
• Gold experienced a decline as safe haven flows decreased, while Bitcoin saw a significant increase.
• The US Dollar Index is aiming for its first weekly gain since mid-March but remains vulnerable below the 100.00 level.
• The upcoming week is packed with high-impact data releases from Asia Pacific, Europe, UK, and the US, potentially raising recession fears.

Week in review: Trump and Bessent eye China deal as markets grow optimistic

Global stocks ended the week on a solid note as early week concerns around Federal Reserve independence and the ongoing US-China trade war dissipated. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent have tempered rhetoric as they eye a deal with China.

The comments by both parties went a long way to restoring some confidence in the market and this has seen a notable shift in sentiment. Risk assets have risen at a steady pace for the majority of the week, while safe haven flows have taken a knock.

Friday saw US equities largely muted as market participants continue to wait for more information on the US-China situation. The mood remained somewhat uneasy after the US President Donald Trump said he would see it as a "total victory" if tariffs on foreign imports reach 50% within a year.

He also mentioned talks with China about a tariff deal and claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him, though Beijing denies any negotiations are happening. The mixed messages dampened some optimism, which had been boosted by China granting exemptions on the steep 125% tariffs for certain U.S. imports.

Despite the uncertainty on Friday, all in all market participants should see this as a positive week.

At the time of writing the S&P 500 has gained 4% this week, while the Nasdaq is up 5.6% and the Dow has risen 2.4%. The increases are largely due to hopes that U.S.-China trade tensions may ease.

The overall Mood remains cautious as the economic outlook worsens and tariffs hurt company earnings. The benchmark index remains below levels prior to the April 2 announcement, and is over 10% off its February record close.

Source: LSEG

The dollar was set for its first weekly gain since mid-March on Friday, influenced by mixed signals about U.S.-China relations improving. It rose 0.82% against the yen to 143.775 and 0.42% against the Swiss franc to 0.82985. Meanwhile, the euro dropped 0.24% to $1.1363, and the pound fell 0.12% to $1.332, despite unexpectedly strong UK retail sales.

On the commodities front, Gold has struggled as safe haven flows have slowed down this week. The early week flurry which sent Gold to $3500/oz has disappeared as hopes of a trade deal escalate.

Gold is trading down 1.6% for the week and on course to print a massive shooting star candlestick close on the weekly timeframe. This does not bode well for bulls especially if any trade deals are struck or announced over the weekend or early next week.

For now, a return to the weekly high at $3500/oz may require an escalation in trade tensions once more, otherwise the level may remain out of reach in the short term.

Bitcoin has been a big beneficiary this past week with the world's largest crypto benefiting from the improved sentiment. At the time of writing Bitcoin is up around 10% for the week.

Oil prices dropped on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss of over 2%, as markets expected an oversupply. Fears around oversupply were exacerbated when some OPEC+ members proposed increasing oil production again in June, according to a report earlier this week.

The week ahead: Shortened trading week brings a host of data releases

The upcoming week will be a busy one with a barrage of high impact data releases scheduled. There are also lingering concerns around tariffs which are unlikely to dissipate soon.

President Trump said on Friday that he expects trade deals in the next three to four weeks which leaves the door open for further twists and turns in the saga.

Asia Pacific Markets

It will be a busy week for the Asia Pacific region with high impact data from Japan, China and Australia all on the agenda.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for now, despite high inflation and uncertainty about U.S. trade policies. However, it is likely to indicate plans for rate hikes in the coming months.

It's a busy week in China as a potential trade deal with the US comes into focus. Beyond that markets are eagerly watching for the first PMI data since tariff conflicts worsened. On Sunday, China will release industrial profits data, which will show if profits turned positive after falling 0.3% year-on-year in the first two months. On Wednesday, China’s official and Caixin PMIs will reveal how tariffs have affected the manufacturing sector.

In the Pacific region we have some inflation data for Q1 being released in Australia. The RBA prefers the quarterly data as it provides a more stable view of inflationary trends. Markets expect CPI to rise due to higher food and electricity costs, even though service prices have slightly decreased.

Europe + UK + US

In developed markets, it will be a huge week for US data. Next week’s U.S. data could raise recession fears. Consumer confidence is expected to drop as households worry about rising prices from tariffs, job losses, and potential government benefit cuts. Falling investments and wealth are making people spend less

A weak first-quarter GDP report is likely. A surge in imports earlier this year, driven by fears of tariffs, may have hurt growth. Consumer spending and investments in March likely kept the economy growing, but future quarters may be worse.

April's jobs report will show slower hiring due to economic uncertainty. Layoffs remain rare, but slower job growth could slightly increase unemployment as more people look for jobs than the market can absorb.

Canada's election has taken an unexpected turn after Donald Trump suggested making Canada the 51st U.S. state. The Conservative Party has lost support, while the Liberal Party has gained momentum under its new leader, Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. The winner will have to tackle the economic impact of a trade war, as 75% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S.

Europe also has a busy week ahead with a host of high impact data releases. Euro GDP preliminary numbers for Q1 will be released on Wednesday 09:00am GMT time.

The week will come to a close on Friday with Eurozone CPI preliminary numbers. Markets are expecting a slight uptick on the YoY print to 2.5% from a previous print of 2.4%.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY)

This week's focus remains on the US Dollar Index.

The index is on course for its first weekly gain since mid-March but the index looks set to close below a key level of 99.57.

Without a break above the 100.00 key psychological level the DXY remains vulnerable to further downside.

Immediate resistance rests at 100.00, 100.61 and 101.18.

Looking at key areas of support and we have the 99.00 handle, 98.30 and of course the 97.70.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - March 28, 2025

Source: TradingView.Com (click to enlarge)