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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3514; (P) 1.3547; (R1) 1.3586; More...

While GBP/USD dips notably today, downside is contained well above 1.3414 support so far. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3615 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.3414 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2913) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1392; (P) 1.1415; (R1) 1.1444; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8197; (P) 0.8213; (R1) 0.8234; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 0.8038 are seen as a corrective pattern to decline from 0.9200. While fall from 0.8475 might extend lower, downside should be contained by 0.8038 to bring rebound. Break of 0.8436 resistance will suggest that it's already in the third leg of the correction, and target 0.8475.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8696) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.06; (P) 144.51; (R1) 145.04; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 146.27 resistance will argue that price actions from 148.64 has completed as a corrective pattern. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 148.64 resistance and above to resume the rebound from 139.87 low. However, firm break of 142.10 will bring retest of 139.87 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8424; (R1) 0.8433; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from resumed by breaking through 0.8448 resistance, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Strong resistance could be seen from 0.8500 to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 0.8413 support will bring retest of 0.8354 low. However, firm break of 0.8500 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8591 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

Sterling is sold off notably today after dismal UK labor market data intensified expectations of a BoE rate cut in August. The most striking element was the -109k drop in payrolled employment—the largest non-pandemic decline since records began in 2014—coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since mid-2023.

While wage growth remains elevated, its slowdown reinforces the view that inflationary pressures are easing. With signs that labour market cooling is gaining momentum, markets are increasingly pricing in not just an August rate cut, but a follow-up move in November. Traders will, however, closely monitor Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal statement tomorrow, which may influence expectations depending on the scale and orientation of policy shifts.

Elsewhere, markets are also eyeing the second day of US-China trade talks in London. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that he expected a full day meeting today, while the negotiations are "going well". Both sides are expected to issue updates later in the day.

Overall in the currency markets, Sterling is currently the worst performer, followed by Swiss Franc, and then Dollar. Loonie is the best, followed by Aussie, and then Euro. Yen and Aussie are positioning in the middle.

Technically, focus is now on 1.1045 support in GBP/CHF with today's dip. Firm break there will complete a head and shoulder top pattern, which suggest that rise from 1.0610 has completed, at 1.1200. Deeper decline should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0610 to 1.1200 at 1.0975, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 1.0835.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.53%. DAX is down -0.40%. CAC is up 0.01%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.094 at 4.543. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.035 at 2.535. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.32%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.08%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.44%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.002 to 1.480.

ECB's Villeroy: Favorable 2 and 2 zone is not static

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a conference today that ECB is now in a favorable "2 and 2 zone. That means, inflation is forecast at 2% this year, while deposit rate is also at 2%.

Nevertheless, he warned that with current uncertainties, this zone "does not mean a comfortable zone or a static zone". "We will remain pragmatic and data-driven, and as agile as necessary," Villeroy added.

Separately, Finnish ECB policymaker Olli Rehn warned that as inflation is projected to stay below 2% this year, the central must be mind of "not slipping towards the zero lower bound."

“We must not grow overconfident — instead we must stay vigilant and monitor the risks in both directions,” Rehn said. “The ECB team must remain alert and ready to act with agility as and if needed.”

Eurozone Sentix surges back into positive territory, recession fears recede

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone turned notably upbeat in June, as Sentix Investor Confidence index climbed from -8.1 to +0.2—its first positive reading since June 2024 and well above expectations of -6. Current Situation Index also improved markedly from -19.3 to -13.0, while Expectations Index jumped from 3.8 to 14.3.

Germany led the improvement, with its overall Sentix index rising to -5.9, the highest since March 2022. Expectations climbed by 12 points to 17.5, while current conditions advanced for the fourth consecutive month to -26.8.

According to Sentix, fears of a recession triggered by the US tariff shock in April have largely dissipated, and the economic outlook for the Eurozone is now tilted toward a cyclical upswing.

With economic momentum building and the Sentix inflation barometer showing signs of easing price pressures, ECB may view its policy as being in a “comfort zone.” While another rate cut isn’t off the table, any such move could be delayed if the upswing continues to solidify over the summer.

UK labor market softens as unemployment rises to 4.6% and wage growth slows

UK labor market data released today point to gradual cooling. In May, payrolled employment dropped by -109k, or -0.4% mom. Claimant count rose sharply by 33.1k, well above the expected 4.5k increase. Wage pressures are also easing, with median monthly pay rising by 5.8% yoy, down from 6.2% previously, though still within a relatively tight band seen this year.

For the three months to April, unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% as expected, while both average earnings measures came in softer than forecast. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose 5.2% yoy, and total pay increased 5.3% yoy, both under the 5.5% consensus.

BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms gradual tightening path, cites limited room for rate cuts

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated to parliament today that interest rate hikes will continue, though cautiously, once the central bank gains "more conviction that underlying inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level".

Ueda explained that BoJ still maintains negative real interest rates to support inflation momentum and ensure price growth remains both stable and sustained.

However, Ueda also flagged a significant limitation in policy space should economic conditions deteriorate. With the short-term policy rate still only at 0.5%, the BoJ has "limited room" to cut rates in response to any sharp downturn in growth.

Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment edges higher as rate cuts clash with growth worries

Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment index rose a modest 0.5% mom in June to 92.6, reflecting a population still mired in what Westpac called a “holding pattern of cautious pessimism.”

The data reveal "two clear opposing forces" shaping household attitudes: easing inflation and RBA’s May rate cut have improved perceptions around major purchases. On the other hand, sluggish domestic growth and global trade uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on expectations.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the RBA’s next meeting on July 7–8. With economic data remaining mixed and labor market tightness still evident, Westpac expects the central bank to proceed with caution and keep the cash rate on hold. Nonetheless, a fresh round of economic projections in August could pave the way for another 25 basis point cut, as RBA recalibrates its stance amid still-sluggish growth.

Australia’s NAB business confidence lifts to 2, but employment conditions erode

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index turned positive in May, rising from -1 to 2. However, the improvement in confidence was not matched by underlying business conditions, which weakened further. Business Conditions index slipped from 2 to 0, with trading conditions dipping slightly from 6 to 5, profitability remaining in the red at -4, and employment conditions dropping from 4 to 0 — all pointing to a stagnating environment.

On the inflation front, cost indicators presented a mixed picture. Labor cost growth remained firm at a quarterly equivalent pace of 1.7%. Purchase cost and final product price growth eased to 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Retail price growth held steady at 1.2%, suggesting persistent margin pressures.

NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld emphasized that business conditions are still weak and warned that continued softness could cap any recovery in confidence. She also flagged the labor market as a key area to monitor, with the employment index now below average.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8424; (R1) 0.8433; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from resumed by breaking through 0.8448 resistance, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Strong resistance could be seen from 0.8500 to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 0.8413 support will bring retest of 0.8354 low. However, firm break of 0.8500 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8591 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a conference today that ECB is now in a favorable "2 and 2 zone. That means, inflation is forecast at 2% this year, while deposit rate is also at 2%.

Nevertheless, he warned that with current uncertainties, this zone "does not mean a comfortable zone or a static zone". "We will remain pragmatic and data-driven, and as agile as necessary," Villeroy added.

Separately, Finnish ECB policymaker Olli Rehn warned that as inflation is projected to stay below 2% this year, the central must be mind of "not slipping towards the zero lower bound."

“We must not grow overconfident — instead we must stay vigilant and monitor the risks in both directions,” Rehn said. “The ECB team must remain alert and ready to act with agility as and if needed.”

While gold prices remain heated and volatile at the top, its precious counterparts—silver and platinum—are attracting bullish interest and surging toward multi-year highs.

Platinum has gained about 35% from its lows at the beginning of the year at $900, reaching $1,225 at the start of the day on Tuesday. The latest rally brought the price back to the 2021 highs, ending a three-year sideways trend. Bulls intensified their push after successfully breaking through the $1,000 level in the middle of last month.

Silver is up 27% since the beginning of the year, accelerating its growth in the last couple of weeks after an 18% correction in early April. With the price reaching $36.9 on Monday, silver is trading at its highest level since February 2012.

In both cases, bulls were encouraged by the rapid correction in gold, which did not turn into a prolonged decline. This was a signal that gold was seeing profit-taking rather than a reversal of sentiment. In such conditions, traders look for alternatives. Since the platinum and silver markets are less liquid, price movements here are usually more significant.

In 2011, the silver rally pushed the price from less than $18 to almost $50. If the momentum that has been driving precious metals since the beginning of the year continues, bulls may aim to repeat the peaks of fifteen years ago or even try to exceed them. On weekly timeframes, silver is not overheated, with an RSI of 64. In 2011 and 2018–2019, only an RSI above 80 was a signal for a reversal.

Platinum has fallen sharply in recent years, falling out of focus for investors as the automotive industry has sought to move away from internal combustion engines, where platinum is actively used. In recent weeks, however, platinum has emerged as an alternative to gold as a metal for gold reserves. However, it has yet to prove its potential. The 2021 turning point is in the $1,200–1,300 range. Successfully overcoming this resistance level opens the way to $1,500 and then $1,900, which, in a bullish scenario, could well be reached by the end of the year.

In this article, we will take a look at Ethereum. We can see that Cryptocurrencies formed a major low back in April 2025 and have been rallying since then. Some have rallied more than others and we see Bitcoin even made a new all time high already. ETHUSD, on the other hand, has not yet made a new high above it’s December 2024 peak but it has nearly doubled since forming a low back on April 7, 2025 rallying from $1385 to $2789. It is currently trading at $2674 and is attempting to break above the earlier peak of $2789. Today, we will take a look at the structure of the rally from April 7, 2025 low and try to determine the next move in the cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) 8 Hour Elliott Wave Chart June 10, 2025

Above chart shows current rally is clearly impulsive with clear separation and extension in wave 3. Wave (1) ended at $1687.2, wave (2) completed at $1473. Wave 1 of 3 completed at $1873.2 wave 2 of (3) completed at $1753.2, this followed by a strong rally in wave 3 which ended at $2606.5, this was followed by an irregular wave 4 which ended at $2407.5 and then a new high in wave 5 to $2738.9 which completed wave (3) of the on-going impulse Elliott wave structure. Then, we saw a 3 waves pull back in wave (4) which was expected to complete between $2387.5 – $2224.6 which was 100 – 161.8 fib extension area of wave A related to wave B. Wave (4) competed at $2325 and the rally resumed in wave (5). We have already seen a new high above wave (3) peak but the new high was in 3 waves which is part of a corrective sequence. Since wave (5) should be an impulse so it can’t have a corrective sequence. We considered the possibility of a FLAT in wave (4) but the decline was also left in 3 waves and Ethereum rally is getting closer to the previous peak due to which we are considering the possibility of an Ending diagonal structure in wave (5) when we are currently in wave 3 of (5). 100 – 161.8 fibonacci extension area of wave 1 related to wave 2 comes between $2850 – $3141 from where we can see a pull back in wave 4 followed by another 3 swings higher to complete the ending diagonal wave (5) and impulsive rally from April 7, 2025 low. Afterwards, expect a larger 3 waves pull back to correct the cycle from April 7, 2025 low before the rally resumes.

USD/JPY ranges within daily cloud (144.43/145.59) also between daily Tenkan and Kijun-sen lines, with Kijun-sen (145.38) capping the action today.

Near term technical structure is slightly bullishly aligned, with growing positive momentum and repeated close above Tenkan-sen supporting the notion.

On the other hand, overbought stochastic might be limiting factor that partially offsets positive signals.

Sideways near-term mode to be expected as long as price holds within the cloud, as strong downside rejection on Monday and upside rejection today supports scenario.

Firmer direction signals to be expected on clear break of either boundary of daily cloud, with dollar being underpinned by optimism on US China trade talks, though support was so far insufficient for stronger movements.

Markets await release of US inflation data this week, to get more clues about Fed’s action in the near future.

Signals that Bank of Japan will keep its monetary policy unchanged in the meeting next week, could be initial negative signal for yen.

Sustained break below cloud base / daily Tenkan to weaken near term structure and risk test of supports at 143.65/00 and 142.40 on stronger acceleration.

Conversely, firm break of cloud top to generate bullish signal and expose targets at 146.15/38 (Fibo 61.8% of 148.64/142.11 / May 29 spike high).

Res: 145.29; 145.59; 146.15; 146.38.
Sup: 144.33; 143.65; 143.00; 142.40.