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BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned today that the recently imposed U.S. tariffs are likely to exert “downward pressure” on both the global and Japanese economies through “various channels.”

While he did not specify the transmission mechanisms, the remarks reflect growing concerns that escalating trade tensions could weigh on exports, dampen corporate sentiment, disrupt supply chains, as well as trigger volatility in the financial markets including currencies.

Ueda reiterated BoJ’s commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably, noting that monetary policy would be guided appropriately based on evolving economic, price, and financial developments. He emphasized that the central bank will maintain a data-dependent approach and continue to scrutinize conditions “without any pre-conception”.

New Zealand’s services sector remained in contraction in March, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index inching up slightly to 49.1 from 49.0. This marks another month below the long-run average of 53.0 highlighting the ongoing weakness.

While the headline improvement was minimal, underlying components showed a mixed picture—activity/sales dropped from 49.1 to 47.4. But new orders/business climbed from 49.5 to 50.8, the highest since February 2024, suggesting some pickup in future demand. Employment rose from 49.1 to 50.2, ending a 15-month streak of contraction, and offering early signs that firms may be regaining confidence in hiring.

The share of negative comments from survey participants fell slightly to 56.7%, with ongoing concerns about high interest rates, inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and broader economic uncertainty. Businesses also cited external pressures such as global tariffs and rising input costs.

Full NZ BNZ PSI release here.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1200 resistance.
• It broke a key contracting triangle with resistance at 1.1035 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is again rising and might aim for gains above 1.3120.
• Gold prices rallied further and traded to a new record high above $3,200.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained supported above 1.0880 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh surge above the 1.1000 and 1.1050 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair broke a key contracting triangle with resistance at 1.1035. There was a close above the 1.1200 resistance, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The bulls pumped the pair above the 1.1350 and 1.1400 levels. A high was formed at 1.1473 and is currently consolidating gains. If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.1420 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1450 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.1500 zone. A close above the 1.1500 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.1550 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.1320 level. The next key support sits near the 1.1250 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.1200 level.

Looking at Gold, the price started a fresh increase, and the bulls might soon aim for a move toward the $3,280 level.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• Fed's Waller speech.
• Fed's Harker speech.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged over the weekend that global investors are grappling with deep uncertainty surrounding the direction of US trade and fiscal policy. Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, Kashkari said the bond market’s recent volatility reflects an effort to “determine what is the new normal in America,” particularly regarding long-term Treasury yields.

He emphasized that Fed has “zero ability” to influence that end point, which he said is shaped entirely by trade negotiations and fiscal decisions coming out of Washington.

Kashkari underlined that tariffs are inherently inflationary, but the key question is whether their effect on prices will be temporary or more sustained. “Tariffs push up prices and push down economic activity,” he noted, describing it as a difficult scenario in which Fed’s tools are limited. The central bank’s role, he added, is "to make sure that it's only a one time adjustment in prices and nothing longer term than that."

He also made clear that monetary policy alone cannot undo the economic drag from a trade war. As the market digests new rounds of tariffs, retaliation, and policy reversals, Kashkari said, “we’re going to have to watch and see.”

"We can just keep inflation from getting out of hand," he added.

USDCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCAD broke support zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.3800

USDCAD currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 1.4040 (which reversed the price sharply at the start of April, as can be seen below), 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from September and the support trendline of the daily down channel from March.

The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to intermediate impulse wave (C) from February.

USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3800, former monthly low from November.

USDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• USDJPY broke the support zone
•  Likely to fall to support level 141.65

USDJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 144.60 (which stopped wave 1 at the start of April, as can be seen below) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from January.

The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to wave (3) from the end of March.

Given the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 141.65, former strong support from August and September.

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 87785.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently reversed from support zone between the support level 76685.00 (former low for wave (A) from the start of March, as can be seen below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from September.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier short term wave B – which belongs to ABC correction (B) from the start of March.

Bitcoin can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 87785.00, which stopped the previous wave A.

It has been a brutally volatile week across global markets, driven by a whirlwind of US tariff implementations, abrupt reversals, and rapid retaliatons. Investors were left scrambling to make sense of the White House’s constantly shifting trade stance. We won’t attempt to recap every step of the tariff saga, when even members of the administration seemed unable to track the unfolding policy moves.

The most consequential outcome of the week was the broad-based pressure on US assets. The sharp selloff in Treasuries drew the most concern, raising alarms over whether the bedrock of the financial markets is beginning to erode. That said, while the jump in yields was certainly eye-catching, it has yet to cross the threshold into full-blown crisis territory.

US stocks, after plunging to their lowest levels in months mid-week, managed to stage a strong rebound. Key technical support levels held, keeping the long-term uptrend intact—for now. However, that doesn’t mean the risks are gone. If the mounting tariffs ultimately tip the US into recession, the bounce may prove to be nothing more than a bear market rally.

Dollar also struggled, ending as the week’s worst performer. Despite rising yields and some risk-off mood, neither provided the greenback any meaningful support. Dollar Index is now on the verge of resuming its broader medium-term downtrend.

In the broader forex markets, Sterling and Yen also underperformed. On the other end, Swiss Franc stood tall as the market’s safe-haven anchor, followed by Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Euro and Canadian Dollar ended the week in middle ground.

Tariff Shock and Yield Spike Rattle Markets; Not a Crisis Yet, But Warnings Are Flashing

The essence of the market chaos: US reciprocal tariffs officially went into effect—only to be paused within hours to allow room for negotiation, except for China. On the surface, that might have calmed markets. And indeed, it opened the door to dialogue, with Taiwan reportedly holding the first video talks, while delegations from the EU and Japan are en route for face-to-face meetings in Washington in the coming days.

But on the other side of the equation was deepening hostilities between the US and China. Both sides escalated tariffs beyond economically meaningful levels, effectively moving toward full-scale trade decoupling. The narrative is no longer about negotiation—it’s about economic separation.

What spooked markets the most wasn’t just the trade conflict, but the simultaneous selloff in US assets—equities, Dollar, and perhaps most importantly, Treasuries. This rare alignment of outflows suggested something deeper: a loss of confidence. Some speculate this is precisely why US President Donald Trump reversed course and paused the reciprocal tariffs—because of the violent reaction in the bond market.

Indeed, Trump and his economic advisors have repeatedly cited the importance of keeping bond yields low to support the broader economic agenda. As yields spiked and refinancing costs soared, concerns within the White House likely escalated. A persistent rise in yields would undermine everything from fiscal stimulus to housing affordability and corporate balance sheets.

There are several theories about what triggered the Treasury selloff. Some point to the unwinding of the “Treasury basis trade”—a leveraged strategy used by hedge funds that collapsed under margin stress. Others blame foreign governments, particularly China, for dumping US debt in retaliation.

But perhaps the most straightforward explanation is the simplest: long-term investors are losing interest in US assets, shifting instead into alternatives like Gold in this time of uncertainty, which surged to fresh record highs this week.

Importantly, not all global bond markets are suffering. Germany’s 10-year yield remained within a calm 2.5–2.7% range.

Japan’s 10-year yield held steady around 1.3–1.4% after being pulled up by US yields.

In contrast, US 10-year yields soared, nearing 4.6%, a stark rise from just 3.89% a week ago.

Technically, the picture in US 10-year yields is worrying but not yet in panic mode. For the near term, the decline from 4.809 should have bottomed at 3.886% as a correction. As long as 4.289 support holds, further rise toward 4.809 is expected.

That said, this is still within the bounds of a broad consolidation pattern from the 2023 peak at 4.997%. Current rally might just be one of the legs.

However, if 10-year Treasury yields were to break decisively above the symbolic 5% level, the impact could be seismic. Borrowing costs across the economy would surge along, from mortgages to corporate debt, tightening financial conditions at a pace that could choke off growth.

Beyond the US, such a move could trigger forced selling by foreign holders, particularly if trade tensions worsen or FX reserves are rebalanced. The result could be a broad and disorderly repricing of global assets, especially in equity markets and emerging economies, ushering in a new chapter where financial stability, rather than inflation, becomes the dominant concern.

Stock Rebound Preserves Uptrend, But Recession Could Break the Spell

The steep intra-week selloff in US equities, among the sharpest in years, has been met with an equally aggressive rebound. Key technical levels held, for example in DOW, which bounced decisively ahead of the 55-month EMA, preserving the long-term uptrend from the 2009 low. For now, market action points to a deep medium-term correction rather than the beginning of a full-blown bear market. However, it would be premature to call the all-clear.

Many economists and central bankers globally have described the US tariff hikes as a textbook stagflationary shock—simultaneously dampening growth and fueling price pressures. According to estimates from the European Commission, the existing 10% blanket tariffs and the 25% metal duties could shave 0.8% to 1.4% off US GDP by 2027. For the EU, the impact is more muted at around 0.2%. But if the tariff regime becomes entrenched or if retaliations escalate further, those numbers could rise dramatically—especially with US-China tariffs not yet fully factored in.

Inflation expectations are also flashing warning signs. While the March US CPI data delivered some relief by slowing more than expected, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey painted a grimmer picture. One-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%—a level last seen in 1981—up sharply from 5.0% in March. Inflation could reaccelerate ahead if supply shocks persist or if inflation expectations become unanchored.

Adding to the concern is the historical warning from the yield curve, something that we have mentioned a number of times. The spread between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasuries—the classic recession signal—inverted in mid-2022 and uninverted last August. Historically, this un-inversion has preceded recessions around 6 to 12 months. That puts the timeline for a economic downturn squarely within 2025. That clock is ticking.

Technically, DOW's defense of 55 M EMA (now at 3558.57) keeps long-term uptrend from 6369.96 (2009 low) alive. For the near term tough, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 45703.63 to 36611.78 at 41841.20 is needed to confirm that correction from 45703.63 has completed. Without that, the best investors can expect is range-bound consolidation.

The worst-case scenario? Decisive break of 55 M EMA would open up deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 6469.95 to 45703.64 at 30327.02 at least.

Dollar Index Cracks 100 Psychological Level, Heading to 95?

Dollar Index dived to as low as 99.01 last week as fall from 110.17 reaccelerated. The break of 100.15 support (2024 low) affirms the case that whole down trend from 114.77 (2022 high) is resuming. Further break of 99.57 (2023 low) should confirm this bearish case. Meanwhile, near term risk will stay heavily on the downside as long as 103.22 support turned resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

So where will Dollar Index head to? Price actions from 114.77 are so far still viewed as a corrective pattern. The next line of defense could come at 38.2% retracement of 70.69 (2008 low) to 114.77 at 97.93. If not, the next target will be 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

The development in EUR/USD should also be considered. Last week's break of 1.1274 resistance (2023 high) should confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). More importantly, EUR/USD is now breaking through the falling channel resistance that lasted more than 1.5 decade. Rise from 0.9534 is likely to extend to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916, or slightly further to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 0.9534 at 1.2019.

Given the EUR/USD's bullish outlook, and that Yen is also strong against Dollar, Dollar index is more likely to hit above mentioned 94.97 projection level than not.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's fall from 1.4791 high continued last week and accelerated through 1.3946/76 key support zone. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.3773. On the upside, break of 1.4150 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high) and 55 W EMA (now at 1.3992) indicates that a medium term is already in place at 1.4791. Fall from there would either be a correction to rise from 1.2005, or trend reversal. In either case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3479) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term correction should then follow.

EUR/USD's rally continued last week and accelerated to as high as 1.1427. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694. On the downside, below 1.1245 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0912 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0725) holds.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1324) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.