Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2909; (P) 1.2938; (R1) 1.2974; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 1.3013 short term top could still continues. Below 1.2886 will target near term channel support (now at 1.2782) and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Sterling fell broadly today after UK’s February CPI came in slightly below expectations. However, the selloff has been contained, with markets still expecting the BoE to proceed cautiously with policy easing. In particular, services inflation remained sticky at 5%, signaling that underlying price pressures are not abating as quickly as hoped.

Some economists argue that February’s inflation dip may prove to be a false dawn. The scheduled rise in energy bills and national insurance contributions next month could push inflation back towards 4% level again, undermining hopes of sustained disinflation.

Against that backdrop, BoE is unlikely to accelerate the pace of rate cuts. Markets still see a 25bps rate reduction as a realistic outcome for BoE’s next meeting in May. That would align with the central bank's previously communicated strategy of a cautious and gradual easing path, one cut per quarter.

On the day, Sterling is the weakest performer among major currencies, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies continue to lead with Kiwi topping the chart. Dollar and Euro are positioning in the middle of the pack.

Technically, Nikkei's near term rebound from 35987.13 appears to be losing momentum at it approaches 55 D EMA. Break of 37608.49 support will indicate rejection by the EMA, and should bring deeper fall through 35897.13 to resume the whole decline from 40398.23. If realized, this down move in Nikkei should be accompanied by another selloff in USD/JPY.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.31%. DAX is down -0.42%. CAC is down -0.49%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.004 at 4.766. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.006 at 2.795. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.65%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.60%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.04%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.014 to 1.587.

US durable goods orders rises 0.9% mom in Feb, ex-transport orders up 0.7% mom

US durable goods new orders rose 0.9% mom to USD 289.3B in February, much better than expectation of -0.7% mom fall.

Ex-transport orders rose 0.7% mom to USD 190.9B, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.8% mom to USD 271.3B.

Transportation equipment led the increase, up 1.5% mom to USD 98.3B.

Fed's Goolsbee sees surging inflation expectations as a red flag

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that a shift in market-based long-run inflation expectations toward the elevated levels seen in consumer surveys, such as the University of Michigan’s, would be a "major red flag" demanding immediate Fed attention.

He emphasized that if investor sentiment converges with households' expectations, now at the highest since 1993, Fed would have little choice but to respond.

Goolsbee noted that Fed has moved into “a different chapter” marked by heightened uncertainty, contrasting with the “golden path” of 2023 and 2024, when inflation eased without damaging growth or jobs.

While he still sees interest rates being “a fair bit lower” in the next 12–18 months, he acknowledged that economic unpredictability, particularly surrounding trade policy, may delay Fed’s next move. His stance: “wait and see is the correct approach,” though not without costs.

In conversations with business leaders, Goolsbee said April 2—the date of expected US tariff announcements—has become a key flashpoint of anxiety. This uncertainty, he said, is fueling a broad hesitancy in investment and hiring decisions across the Fed district.

ECB’s Panetta: Focus on inflation, not unreliable neutral rate estimates

Italian ECB Governing Council Member Fabio Panetta urged the central bank to steer its attention toward inflation projections rather than attempting to anchor policy decisions on the elusive concept of the “neutral interest rate” or R-star.

In a letter to the Financial Times, Panetta argued that the neutral rate is an invisible target that can only be approximated using models and surveys that are “riddled with uncertainty,” especially in today’s volatile environment.

Panetta warned against ECB becoming “fixated” on labeling its stance as restrictive based on R-star estimates, calling. Instead, he emphasized that the ECB’s efforts should remain firmly grounded in assessing inflation data and determining whether monetary policy is appropriately calibrated to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% target.

ECB’s Villeroy sees room for rate cuts to 2% by summer

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled there is "still scope for further easing," though he emphasized that the pace and magnitude remain uncertain.

Speaking to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Villeroy acknowledged that current market expectations of ECB rates around 2% by summer represent a “possible scenario,” considering Europe’s summer period spans from June through September.

He also addressed recent tightening in financial conditions, noting that the rise in long-term bond yields—triggered by Germany’s massive defense and infrastructure spending plans—must be factored into ECB’s monetary policy assessment.

The spending surge, aimed at countering a perceived US retreat in global leadership, has raised concerns about its inflationary impact. However, Villeroy downplayed those risks, arguing that Europe’s weak domestic demand could offset inflationary pressure from higher public expenditure.

He added that if such fiscal spending is coupled with expanded industrial supply, the inflation impact would likely be limited.

UK CPI slows to 2.8% in Feb, core down to 3.5%

UK CPI slowed from 3.0% yoy to 2.8% yoy in February, below expectation of 2.9% yoy. CPI Core (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) fell from 3.7% yoy to 3.5% yoy, below expectation of 3.6% yoy.

CPI goods annual rate slowed from 1.0% to 0.8%, while the CPI services annual rate was unchanged at 5.0%.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% mom.

BoJ’s Ueda: Vigilant on upside inflation risks, signals readiness for stronger action

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized today that the central bank remains "vigilant" to upside surprises in "underlying inflation.

While recent "very high" inflation has been driven largely by temporary factors like import costs and food prices, there’s still a possibility that underlying inflation could accelerate more quickly than expected.

Ueda warned that if such "broad-based inflation" materializes, BoJ would need to respond by raising interest rates and even take “stronger steps”.

However, for now, he reaffirmed the view that underlying inflation remains “just a bit” short of the 2% target, though it is on track to gradually converge to that level.

Meanwhile, data released today showed Japan’s services producer price index rose 3.0% yoy in February, a deceleration from January’s 3.2% and below expectations of 3.1%.

Australia CPI slows to 2.4% in Feb, trimmed mean ticks down to 2.7%

Australia’s monthly CPI eased to 2.4% yoy in February, slightly below expectations of 2.5% yoy and marking a step down from the steady 2.5% yoy pace seen over the past two months.

Core inflation measures also softened, with the trimmed mean slipping from 2.8% yoy to 2.7% yoy. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel eased from 2.9% yoy to 2.7% yoy.

The largest contributors to annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.1%), alcohol and tobacco (+6.7%), and housing (+1.8%).

Still, the overall slowdown adds to the case for RBA to remain on hold at its upcoming meeting. The central bank has made it clear that February’s rate cut does not set an automatic path for further easing. With the more comprehensive Q1 CPI data still to come, today’s numbers are unlikely to shift policy expectations in a meaningful way.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2909; (P) 1.2938; (R1) 1.2974; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 1.3013 short term top could still continues. Below 1.2886 will target near term channel support (now at 1.2782) and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

US durable goods new orders rose 0.9% mom to USD 289.3B in February, much better than expectation of -0.7% mom fall.

Ex-transport orders rose 0.7% mom to USD 190.9B, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.8% mom to USD 271.3B.

Transportation equipment led the increase, up 1.5% mom to USD 98.3B.

Full US durable goods orders release here.

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled there is "still scope for further easing," though he emphasized that the pace and magnitude remain uncertain.

Speaking to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Villeroy acknowledged that current market expectations of ECB rates around 2% by summer represent a “possible scenario,” considering Europe’s summer period spans from June through September.

He also addressed recent tightening in financial conditions, noting that the rise in long-term bond yields—triggered by Germany’s massive defense and infrastructure spending plans—must be factored into ECB’s monetary policy assessment.

The spending surge, aimed at countering a perceived US retreat in global leadership, has raised concerns about its inflationary impact. However, Villeroy downplayed those risks, arguing that Europe’s weak domestic demand could offset inflationary pressure from higher public expenditure.

He added that if such fiscal spending is coupled with expanded industrial supply, the inflation impact would likely be limited.

• EUR/USD pulls back ahead of April 2 tariffs.
• Support at 1.0765; mixed technical signals.
• Bearish confirmation below 1.0565.

EURUSD has extended its retreat from the five-month high of 1.0953, trading lower for the second consecutive week, with the bears steering the price toward the key support near 1.0770.

The latest explosive vertical rally stalled below the 1.1000 threshold, and in the weekly chart, the bulls remain capped under the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), raising concerns about further downside as investors reassess the impact of reciprocal tariffs, Germany’s defense spending and lower interest rates on economic growth.

On the daily chart, a bullish crossover between the 20- and longer-term EMAs offers a glimmer of hope that the upward trajectory could stay intact. However, a drop below these EMAs, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upleg at 1.0655, could reinforce selling pressure toward the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.0565. A tentative support trendline from February’s lows adds extra significance to this area – failure to hold there could dampen prospects of a bullish reversal.

Despite the negative slope in the technical indicators, the stochastic oscillator is already within the oversold zone and the RSI has yet to cross below its 50 neutral mark, both suggesting that upside movements or some stability is still possible.

A sustained bullish outlook however could be a tough task. Buyers need to reclaim 1.0953 and break through the psychological 1.1000 barrier to test the crucial falling trendline at 1.1050 stemming from the 2021 peak. A breakout there could pave the way toward the next important barrier at 1.1175-1.1200.

Overall, EURUSD could remain under pressure in the coming sessions, with the 1.0770 area likely acting as support. A breakdown could expose the market to the 1.0600 territory.

Cable fell to two-week low on Wednesday on softer than expected UK February inflation data that fuel expectations for BoE rate cut in May.

Fresh weakness pressure support at 1.2883 (20DMA / last Friday’s low) break of which to open way for deeper correction (dips from new multi-month high at 1.3014 were so far shallow) and expose next significant support at 1.2798 (200DMA / Fibo 23.6% of 1.2099/1.3014 rally).

The notion could be supported by negative signals developing on weekly chart (overbought conditions / double weekly Doji with strong upside rejection last week).

Also, the price returned into rising weekly Ichimoku cloud, with close within the cloud to add to negative signals, along with potential monthly bull-trap above 1.2924 Fibo resistance).

On the other hand, economists are not very optimistic and expect inflation to remain sticky, with lower February numbers to be seen as temporary improvement rather than sustained easing in price pressures.

In such scenario, price adjustment is likely to remain limited with shallow dips to signal that larger bulls hold grip and on track for fresh advance after consolidation.

Res: 1.2952; 1.2989; 1.3000; 1.3042.
Sup: 1.2883; 1.2861; 1.2798; 1.2715.

Today, the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were released. According to ForexFactory:

• The actual annual CPI came in at 2.8%,
• Analysts had expected it to remain at the previous level of 3.0%.

As a result, the British pound weakened, and a slight spike in volatility was observed on the FTSE 100 stock index chart (UK 100 on FXOpen)

Technical Analysis of FTSE 100

In early March, bearish activity (indicated by an arrow) led to a break of the support level around 8757, which then acted as resistance.

However, as soon as bears pushed the price below the February low, bulls stepped in.

Currently, the UK stock index chart is forming a narrowing triangle, which can be interpreted as a sign of equilibrium between supply and demand. However, this pattern will eventually be broken.

It is possible that the release of significant news—such as developments in international trade tariffs—could disrupt the balance of supply and demand, triggering a trend movement for the FTSE 100 index (UK 100 on FXOpen).

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Fundamental Analysis: UK Inflation and Monetary Policy Expectations

Key Takeaways:

1. UK inflation miss (2.8% YoY) pressures GBP, but sticky services inflation (5%) tempers BoE rate cut bets.
2. Fiscal policy in focus: UK Spring Statement's spending cuts may limit growth, keeping GBP vulnerable.
3. USD resilience persists despite tariff risks, with PCE data as next catalyst.
4. Critical technical levels: 1.2850 (support) and 1.2950 (resistance). Breakouts will dictate short-term direction.
5. Risk warning: Monetary policy divergence (BoE vs. Fed) and geopolitics fuel volatility.

The British Pound (GBP) faces bearish pressure this Wednesday following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. February's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.8%, below the 2.9% forecast and January's 3.0% reading. Core inflation (excluding volatile items) also eased to 3.5%, reinforcing expectations of potential Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in coming months. However, services inflation—a key BoE metric—remained sticky at 5%, potentially delaying aggressive monetary easing.

Key Short-Term Drivers

Market focus now shifts to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Spring Statement, expected to announce fiscal measures including welfare cuts and a £2.2 billion defense spending boost. Moderate fiscal tightening could cap economic growth and keep GBP subdued. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) shows resilience despite uncertainty over potential Trump tariffs (April 2 deadline), adding volatility to the pair.

USD Outlook

Friday's US Core PCE data (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) will be critical. A persistent print (forecast: 2.7% YoY) may strengthen the USD further, while a downside surprise could revive risk appetite and temporarily relieve GBP pressure.

Technical Analysis | GBPUSD, H4

Supply Zone (Sell): 1.2945 || Demand Zones (Buy): 1.2820 / 1.2787

Price opened the session with a -0.40% decline following disappointing UK February CPI data. This activated a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, with the descending neckline indicating increasing bearish pressure.

The bullish technical structure is challenged by two consecutive (though weak) breakdowns below the key H4 support at 1.2911. This latest low establishes 1.2967 as the last validated H4 resistance, which now serves as our reference level for maintaining a bearish bias unless decisively broken.

In this context, we anticipate further downside after a potential pullback toward 1.2927-1.2930, where fresh selling pressure could emerge. Targets align with high-volume demand zones at 1.2820 and 1.2787, which also match the measured move projection of the reversal pattern.

Trading Scenarios:

• Bearish: Wait for buyers to push the price to 1.2927, then sell below it, targeting 1.2861, 1.2820, 1.2800, and 1.2787.
• Bullish: Only above 1.2787, targeting 1.2860.

Invalidation Conditions: The reversal scenario is invalid if the price decisively breaks above the 1.2945 POC (Point of Control) and the 1.2967 resistance.

Critical Notes:

Reversal/Exhaustion Pattern (PAR): Always wait for M5 confirmation (e.g., pin bars or engulfing patterns) before entering trades at key levels.

POC Significance: The Point of Control marks the highest volume concentration. If the price previously fell from this zone, it acts as resistance; if it rallied, it becomes support.

This technical outlook remains valid unless fundamental catalysts (e.g., US PCE data) override price action.

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 150.37 on Wednesday, indicating a fading correction from the previous session as trading volumes declined.

Key drivers behind the USD/JPY surge

Investors are shunning risk ahead of potential US retaliatory tariffs, which could weigh on Japanese exports – a key pillar of the economy. Meanwhile, demand for risk assets, including equities and commodities, has further eroded support for the safe-haven yen.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January meeting minutes, released earlier, revealed policymakers’ willingness to consider further rate hikes, contingent on wage growth and inflation trends. One member even suggested rates could reach 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

However, the BoJ’s decision in March to hold rates at 0.5% reinforced its cautious stance, with officials wary of global economic risks, particularly potential US trade measures. Given the central bank’s reluctance to tighten policy soon, the yen lacks a key bullish catalyst.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market has formed a growth wave structure up to 150.93. After reaching this target, a pullback to 148.73 is possible, effectively marking the consolidation range at the wave’s peak. A breakout to the upside would indicate a continuation of the trend towards 153.60. This is a local target, after which a correction to 151.20 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram zone. A decline towards the zero line is expected.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a correction up to 149.30. Once this pullback is complete, a new growth wave towards 150.97 may begin. This is also a local target. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line is above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20.

Conclusion

With the BoJ maintaining a dovish stance and risk sentiment weighing on the yen, USD/JPY bulls remain in control. Traders should watch for a breakout above 150.93 to confirm further upside, while corrections could offer short-term pullback opportunities.

EUR/USD declined from the 1.0950 resistance and traded below 1.0850. USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 151.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0850 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0820 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 149.55 and 150.00 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 150.30 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0950 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0850 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below 1.0820 and tested the 1.0775 zone. A low was formed near 1.0776 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.0800 level. The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0954 swing high to the 1.0776 low.

The pair is now trading below 1.0820 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.0820 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0820.

The next key resistance is at 1.0850. The main resistance is near the 1.0865 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0954 swing high to the 1.0776 low.

A clear move above the 1.0865 level could send the pair toward the 1.0910 resistance. An upside break above 1.0910 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0950.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0775. The next key support is at 1.0750. If there is a downside break below 1.0725, the pair could drop toward 1.0700. The next support is near 1.0650, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 148.20 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 148.80 against the Japanese Yen.

It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 149.55. The pair climbed above 150.00 and traded as high as 150.94. It is now consolidating gains and there was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 148.18 swing low to the 150.94 high.

The current price action above the 150.00 level is positive. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 150.95. The first major resistance is near 151.20. If there is a close above the 151.20 level and the RSI moves above 70, the pair could rise toward 152.50.

The next major resistance is near 153.20, above which the pair could test 155.00 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is 150.30 and a bullish trend line, below which the bears could gain strength.

The next major support is visible near the 149.55 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 148.18 swing low to the 150.94 high.

If there is a close below 149.55, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 148.40 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 147.50 region.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.