Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.33; (P) 150.14; (R1) 150.72; More...

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. Strong resistance is still expected from 150.92 to complete the corrective recovery from 146.52. On the downside break of 148.17 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. However, firm break of 150.92 will argue that fall from 158.86 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8818; (P) 0.8834; (R1) 0.8855; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.8757 could extend further. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2858; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2935; More...

GBP/USD recovered again after brief dip to 1.2869 and intraday bias stays neutral. Correct fall from 1.3013 short term top could extend lower to near term channel support (now at 1.2792). . But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0729; (P) 1.0767; (R1) 1.0789; More...

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged that strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726 to completion the correction from 1.0953. On the upside, break of 1.0857 will bring retest of 1.0953 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.0176. However, sustained break of 1.0726 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0630).

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

The steady drip of tariff news from US President Donald Trump continued overnight, pushing US equities lower and weighing on risk sentiment globally. The tech-heavy NASDAQ led the decline with a drop of over 2%, while broader US indexes also closed in the red. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi followed with notable declines—particularly in auto stocks—while other regional bourses stayed relatively steady, suggesting selective impact.

Despite the equity selloff, currency markets have shown muted reactions so far. Major FX pairs and crosses are treading water, largely trapped within yesterday’s ranges. This suggests that while traders are alert to the evolving trade policy, many are experiencing tariff fatigue and are reluctant to reposition aggressively before next week’s pivotal developments.

The latest tariff news centers around a 25% duty on imported cars and light trucks “not made in the United States,” scheduled to take effect on April 3. However, the rollout comes with key exemptions. Automotive parts compliant with USMCA are spared, and all other auto parts imports are exempt until May 3 to allow time for administrative clarity. It’s a classic case of shock softened by implementation ambiguity.

The centerpiece remains April 2, which Trump has dubbed “liberation day” and “the big one,” when reciprocal tariffs will be formally announced. However, in a shift of tone, Trump now says the measures will be “very lenient,” and “less than the tariff they’ve been charging (the US) for decades,” hinting at a softer-than-expected rollout. That may explain the relatively calm tone in FX markets despite the ongoing trade drama.

In terms of currency performance this week, Canadian Dollar is leading the charge along with commodity currencies. Aussie and Kiwi follow, while traditional safe havens like Yen and Dollar are under pressure. Euro joins them as one of the weakest, while Sterling and Swiss Franc are in the middle of the pack.

Technically, the selloff in NASDAQ overnight is just continuation of the near-term consolidation pattern from the 17238.23 low. Another bounce toward 38.2% retracement of 2024.58 to 17238.23 at 18371.38 remains possible. But strong resistance at the 55 D EMA (now at 18688.06) should cap upside. The larger correction from the 20204.58 peak is still expected to resume eventually, with a break below 17238.23 at a later stage.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.97%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.79%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.23%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.41%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.006 at 1.593, approaching 1.6% mark. Overnight, DOW fell -0.31%. S&P 500 fell -1.12%. NASDAQ fell -2.04%. 10-year yield rose 0.031 to 4.338.

Fed’s Musalem: Persistent tariff inflation could delay cuts or force hikes

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that while the initial effects of import tariffs may be short-lived, their broader inflationary impact could linger. He stressed concern that underlying inflation may be influenced more persistently than expected, and if so, Fed might have to consider a tighter policy stance.

Although this isn’t his baseline scenario, Musalem emphasized that the Fed must remain vigilant to second-round effects from tariffs.

He noted that if inflation stays above the 2% target and the economy remains strong, the current “modestly restrictive” monetary stance would need to be maintained longer.

More significantly, "If the labor market remains resilient and the second-round effects from tariffs become evident, or if medium- to longer-term inflation expectations begin to increase actual inflation or its persistence, then modestly restrictive policy will be appropriate for longer or a more restrictive policy may need to be considered," he said.

BoC minutes: Rate cut driven by tariff threats, signals no guidance amid uncertainty

BoC’s March 12 Summary of Deliberations revealed that the decision to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.75% was driven primarily by "tariff threats and elevated uncertainty".

Governing Council members acknowledged that, under normal circumstances, holding the rate at 3% would have been appropriate. However, the impact of steel and aluminum tariffs, additional tariff threats, and the unpredictable stance of the US administration had begun to materially affect business and consumer decisions. This was "significantly weakening the near-term outlook".

Looking ahead, BoC emphasized the complexity of the situation and the fluid nature of trade tensions. "It would not be appropriate to provide guidance on the future path for the policy interest rate," the minutes noted.

Looking ahead

Eurozone M3 money supply is the only feature in European session. Later in the day, US will release Q1 GDP final, goods trade balance, jobless claims and pending home sales.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0729; (P) 1.0767; (R1) 1.0789; More...

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged that strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726 to completion the correction from 1.0953. On the upside, break of 1.0857 will bring retest of 1.0953 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.0176. However, sustained break of 1.0726 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0630).

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a downside correction from the 1.3000 resistance zone.
• It traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 1.2960 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD dipped below the 1.0850 and 1.0800 support levels.
• The US GDP could grow 2.3% in Q4 2024.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound struggled to continue higher above 1.3015 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a downside correction below the 1.2950 level.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 1.2960. The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2557 swing low to the 1.3014 high.

There was a move below the 1.2920 support and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), but the pair is still above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.2950 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2980 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.3000 zone. A close above the 1.3000 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.3080 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.2840 level. The next key support sits near the 1.2785 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2557 swing low to the 1.3014 high. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.2730 level.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a short-term downside correction after the bulls failed to clear the 1.0950 resistance zone.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• US Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2024 – Forecast 2.3% versus previous 2.3%.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 225K, versus 223K previous.

Short Term Elliott Wave view in EURUSD suggests rally from 2.3.2025 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 1.0528 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 1.036. Wave 3 higher ended at 1.0955 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Pullback in wave 4 is now in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure.

Down from wave 3, wave (i) ended at 1.0857 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1.0917. Pair then extended the decline in wave (iii) towards 1.081 and wave (iv) correction ended at 1.086. Final wave (v) ended at 1.079 which completed wave ((a)) of the zigzag structure in higher degree. Rally in wave ((b)) then ended at 1.0858. Wave ((c)) lower is now in progress as a 5 waves. Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1.077 and wave (ii) ended at 1.083. Expect pair to extend a few more low to finish wave (v) of ((c)) of 4 before it resumes higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.095 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.

EURUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

EURUSD Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve3ynCCcC80

BoC’s March 12 Summary of Deliberations revealed that the decision to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.75% was driven primarily by "tariff threats and elevated uncertainty".

Governing Council members acknowledged that, under normal circumstances, holding the rate at 3% would have been appropriate. However, the impact of steel and aluminum tariffs, additional tariff threats, and the unpredictable stance of the US administration had begun to materially affect business and consumer decisions. This was "significantly weakening the near-term outlook".

Looking ahead, BoC emphasized the complexity of the situation and the fluid nature of trade tensions. "It would not be appropriate to provide guidance on the future path for the policy interest rate," the minutes noted.

Full BoC minutes here.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that while the initial effects of import tariffs may be short-lived, their broader inflationary impact could linger. He stressed concern that underlying inflation may be influenced more persistently than expected, and if so, Fed might have to consider a tighter policy stance.

Although this isn’t his baseline scenario, Musalem emphasized that the Fed must remain vigilant to second-round effects from tariffs.

He noted that if inflation stays above the 2% target and the economy remains strong, the current “modestly restrictive” monetary stance would need to be maintained longer.

More significantly, "If the labor market remains resilient and the second-round effects from tariffs become evident, or if medium- to longer-term inflation expectations begin to increase actual inflation or its persistence, then modestly restrictive policy will be appropriate for longer or a more restrictive policy may need to be considered," he said.

• Gold prices faced resistance despite tariff threats, failing to reach previous highs.
• Gold ETFs saw their largest single-day increase since 2022, indicating strong demand.
• US economic data had a short-term impact on prices, but haven demand remains elevated.

Gold prices failed in their attempt to print a fresh weekly high today despite the latest tariff threats by US President Donald Trump. Markets rallied to peak just above the $3030/oz but fell short of yesterday's highs around $3036/oz.

ETF Flows Record Largest Daily Increase Since 2022

In last week's Gold article titled Gold Price Outlook: ETF Flows, Central Bank Buying, and XAU/USD Price Targets , we did take a look at Gold ETF flows. This is now back in focus following a significant uptick in ETF flows yesterday.

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 23 tonnes of gold in a single trading session, marking the largest one-day increase since 2022. During the first quarter of 2025, gold-backed ETFs have gained around 155 tonnes overall, pushing total holdings to their highest level since September 2023. If this pace continues, it could also play a role in supporting higher gold prices.

As mentioned last week, despite the significant inflows this year current holdings still remain below the record levels reached in 2020. This leaves the door open for further additions which at this stage cannot be ruled.

Uncertainty surrounding US President Trump’s trade policies remains a key factor, and concerns over trade and tariffs are likely to keep boosting gold prices and keep demand elevated.

Tariff Talk and US Data

Gold benefitted earlier in the day after United States (US) President Donald Trump mentioned on Tuesday that Copper tariffs will be implemented in the coming weeks, which is far sooner than markets were anticipating.

US data followed in the US session and saw Gold prices drop back below the $3020/oz handle.

Orders for durable goods made in the US went up by $2.7 billion, or 0.9%, in February 2025 compared to the previous month. This followed a bigger-than-expected rise of 3.3% in January and surprised analysts who had predicted a 1% drop. The total value of orders reached $289.3 billion.

The positive data helped the US Dollar and seemed to weigh on Gold prices. However as i have said over the past few weeks, data releases appear to be having short-term effects on the Gold price in particular with haven demand remaining elevated.

This trend is likely to continue with US PCE data on Friday. Is there a chance of a pullback in Gold prices? The answer is yes, most definitely. However, any such move may prove short-lived and present an opportunity for buyers to join the trend once more.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, Gold prices have failed to record a daily candle close above the 3025 resistance handle since Monday.

This does leave the precious metal vulnerable to further downside but this has been limited so far.

Looking at the four-hour chart (H4) below, Gold does appear to be rangebound between the 3004 and 3030 handles respectively.

A four-hour candle close above or below this block of consolidation could lead to a sharp move for Gold prices.

Immediate support rests at 2982 and 2950 if the lows at 3004 are breached.

On the upside immediate resistance rests in the 3025-3030 range before the 3050 and 3075 handles come into focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, March 25, 2025

Source: TradingView

Support

• 3004
• 2982
• 2950

Resistance

• 3025
• 3050
• 3075