Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9533; (P) 0.9577; (R1) 0.9611; More....

EUR/CHF is extending consolidations below 0.9660 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9489 support holds. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 0.9204 to 0.9516 from 0.9331 at 0.9643 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 0.9836 next.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.9487) is a medium term bullish sign. Sustained break trading above long-term falling channel resistance (at around 0.9620) would suggest that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has bottomed at 0.9204. Stronger rally should then be see to 0.9928 key resistance at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4299; (P) 1.4324; (R1) 1.4352; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.4238 support will argue that corrective pattern from 1.4791 has started the third leg already. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.4150 support and below. On the upside, though, break of 1.4541 will resume the rebound from 1.4150, as the second leg of the pattern.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6330; (P) 0.6348; (R1) 0.6376; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 0.6407 will resume the rebound from 0.6087 to 100% projection of 0.6087 to 0.6407 from 0.6186 at 0.6506, even still as a corrective move. On the downside, below 0.6268 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6186 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6482) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0859; (P) 1.0904; (R1) 1.0948; More...

EUR/USD is staying in consolidations below 1.0953 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0821 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.0953 will resume the rise from 1.1076 to retest 1.1274 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.0821 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2969; (P) 1.2990; (R1) 1.3025; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside with breach of 1.3009 temporary top. Current rally from 1.2099 should target 1.3433 high. However, firm break of 1.2910 will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That would turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8755; (P) 0.8783; (R1) 0.8803; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.8757 could extend. But in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.15; (P) 149.15; (R1) 149.69; More...

USD/JPY's currently steep decline suggests rejection by near term falling channel resistance. Immediate focus is now on 148.22 minor support. Firm break there will indicate that corrective rebound from 146.52 has completed and bring retest of this low first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Asian markets are showing signs of mild risk-off sentiment today, with Hong Kong and China stocks retreating from recent gains. The weaker regional tone contributed to a stronger Yen. Additionally, Yen’s rebound is also fueled by post-FOMC Dollar softness. The technical picture suggests that the recent pullback in Yen against Dollar has likely run its course, allowing the currency to regain some ground.

Meanwhile, the weaker regional sentiment has put pressure on New Zealand Dollar, despite the strong GDP data that showed the country exiting recession. Aussie is also under pressure, not just due to the broader market risk aversion but also because of softer-than-expected employment data, which saw a surprise contraction in jobs. While both the Kiwi and Aussie have had some resilience earlier this week, today's price action suggests that traders are probably turning more cautious.

SNB rate decision will be the first major focus in the European session, with the central bank widely expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut. A key question is whether SNB signals that the current easing cycle is nearing its end. Attention will then shift to BoE, which is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady. The focus will be on the voting composition within the MPC.

For the week so far, Dollar is currently the worst performer, followed by Euro and Aussie. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest, followed by Kiwi and Sterling. Loonie and Yen are positioning in the middle, with Yen's outlook improving due to today’s risk-off flows.

In Asia, Japan is on holiday. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.51%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.67%. Overnight, DOW rose 0.92%. S&P 500 rose 1.08%. NASDAQ rose 1.41%. 10-year yield fell -0.025 to 4.256.

US stocks recovered as Fed sticks to two rate cut outlook for 2025

US stocks closed higher overnight, and extended their near-term consolidations. Investors were somewhat relieved that Fed maintained its outlook for two rate cuts this year. However, the central bank also introduced a note of caution, warning in its statement that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased” and that it remains “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

In the post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell explicitly addressed the impact of tariffs. He warned that “the arrival of tariff inflation may delay further progress” on disinflation. He also noted that Fed’s quarterly summary of economic projections does not show further downward progress on inflation this year, attributing this to new tariffs coming into effect.

This acknowledgment reinforces the stance that while rate cuts remain in the pipeline, the timing and extent of policy easing will depend on how inflation evolves in the face of trade disruptions and supply chain adjustments.

Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, a widely expected move. Fed fund futures now assign roughly 70% probability that the next rate cut will come in June, compared to just 47% a month ago.

Technically, S&P 500 turned into consolidations after falling to 5504.65 last week. 55 W EMA (now at 5596.07) could offer some support for a near term recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 5873.77) holds.

On resumption, fall from 6147.43, as a correction to the rise from 3491.58, should target 38.2% retracement at 5132.89.

New Zealand GDP exits recession with stronger-than-expected 0.7% qoq growth in Q4

New Zealand’s economy expanded by 0.7% qoq in Q4, surpassing expectations of 0.4% qoq and officially pulling the country out of recession. However, the broader picture remains mixed, as GDP still declined by -0.5% yoy, reflecting the lingering impact of previous contractions.

The positive quarterly growth was driven by expansions in 11 out of 16 industries, with the rental, hiring, and real estate sector, retail trade, and healthcare services leading the gains.

Despite the overall improvement, some key sectors struggled, with construction and information media & telecommunications posting declines.

Still, a major positive takeaway from the report is that GDP per capita rose by 0.4% in Q4, marking its first increase in two years.

Australian employment plunges -52.8k in Feb, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

Australia’s employment dropped sharply by -52.8k in February, significantly missing market expectations of 30k gain. The decline was broad-based, with full-time jobs falling by -35.7k and part-time employment down by -17k.

Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts. The participation rate declined by -0.4% to 66.8%, suggesting that fewer people were actively seeking work, which helped keep the jobless rate from rising. Additionally, monthly hours worked fell by -0.4% mom, reflecting softer labor market conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics attributed part of the decline in employment to fewer older workers re-entering the labor force. However, the broader trend still points to resilience in the job market, with employment up by 266k people, or 1.9%, compared to last year. The annual employment growth rate remains close to the 20-year pre-pandemic average of 2.0%.

SNB to cut, BoE to hold, a look at GBP/CHF

Two major central banks will announce their monetary policy decisions today, with SNB leading, followed by BoE.

SNB is widely expected to lower its policy rate by 25bps to 0.25%. With inflation at just 0.3% in February, well below the mid-point of target range, there is both room and necessity for further easing to keep medium-term inflation expectations anchored closer to 1%.

However, the urgency for additional policy support appears to be diminishing, especially with growing optimism around Eurozone economy. Stronger Eurozone growth, driven by major fiscal expansion plans, is expected to lift Euro and boost demand for Swiss exports, which could help mitigate recession and deflation risks in Switzerland.

A Reuters poll of economists showed that most expect rates to remain at 0.25% by year-end, while 10 foresee a move to 0%, and only three expect SNB to maintain the current 0.50% level.

Meanwhile, BoE is widely expected to hold its Bank Rate steady at 4.5%, with little change to its cautious forward guidance. A Reuters poll of 61 economists showed unanimous expectations for a rate hold today, with the next cuts projected for May, August, and November.

The key focus for markets will be whether any additional Monetary Policy Committee members join Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra in voting for an immediate rate cut, which could signal a shift toward a more dovish stance in the coming months.

Technically, while GBP/CHF extended the rally from 1.1086, it has clearly struggled to find convincing momentum. It's plausible that this rise is the third leg of the corrective rebound from 1.0741, which has already completed after meeting 61.8% projection of 1.0741 to 1.1368 from 1.1086 at 11437. Break of 1.1299 support will solidify this bearish case and bring deeper fall back to 1.1086 support. Nevertheless firm break of 1.1501 will pave the way to 1.1675 resistance next.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.15; (P) 149.15; (R1) 149.69; More...

USD/JPY's currently steep decline suggests rejection by near term falling channel resistance. Immediate focus is now on 148.22 minor support. Firm break there will indicate that corrective rebound from 146.52 has completed and bring retest of this low first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Two major central banks will announce their monetary policy decisions today, with SNB leading, followed by BoE.

SNB is widely expected to lower its policy rate by 25bps to 0.25%. With inflation at just 0.3% in February, well below the mid-point of target range, there is both room and necessity for further easing to keep medium-term inflation expectations anchored closer to 1%.

However, the urgency for additional policy support appears to be diminishing, especially with growing optimism around Eurozone economy. Stronger Eurozone growth, driven by major fiscal expansion plans, is expected to lift Euro and boost demand for Swiss exports, which could help mitigate recession and deflation risks in Switzerland.

A Reuters poll of economists showed that most expect rates to remain at 0.25% by year-end, while 10 foresee a move to 0%, and only three expect SNB to maintain the current 0.50% level.

Meanwhile, BoE is widely expected to hold its Bank Rate steady at 4.5%, with little change to its cautious forward guidance. A Reuters poll of 61 economists showed unanimous expectations for a rate hold today, with the next cuts projected for May, August, and November.

The key focus for markets will be whether any additional Monetary Policy Committee members join Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra in voting for an immediate rate cut, which could signal a shift toward a more dovish stance in the coming months.

Technically, while GBP/CHF extended the rally from 1.1086, it has clearly struggled to find convincing momentum. It's plausible that this rise is the third leg of the corrective rebound from 1.0741, which has already completed after meeting 61.8% projection of 1.0741 to 1.1368 from 1.1086 at 11437. Break of 1.1299 support will solidify this bearish case and bring deeper fall back to 1.1086 support. Nevertheless firm break of 1.1501 will pave the way to 1.1675 resistance next.

Australia’s employment dropped sharply by -52.8k in February, significantly missing market expectations of 30k gain. The decline was broad-based, with full-time jobs falling by -35.7k and part-time employment down by -17k.

Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts. The participation rate declined by -0.4% to 66.8%, suggesting that fewer people were actively seeking work, which helped keep the jobless rate from rising. Additionally, monthly hours worked fell by -0.4% mom, reflecting softer labor market conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics attributed part of the decline in employment to fewer older workers re-entering the labor force. However, the broader trend still points to resilience in the job market, with employment up by 266k people, or 1.9%, compared to last year. The annual employment growth rate remains close to the 20-year pre-pandemic average of 2.0%.

Full Australia employment release here.