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In a speech today, Finnish ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn highlighted the potential damage that US tariffs could inflict on global economic activity.

According to Bank of Finland estimates, import tariffs of 25% on US imports from the Eurozone and 20% on imports from China, along with reciprocal measures by those regions, would shave more than 0.5% off global output this year and next

Rehn stressed that this looming trade conflict would carry both deflationary and inflationary implications for Europe. "It's worth recalling that if growth were to slow down in the world economy and euro area economy compared to forecasts, that would weigh on inflation downwards," Rehn said.

Given this uncertainty, he noted that ECB will assess fresh economic data ahead of its April meeting before committing to additional rate cuts or a pause.

On Tuesday, Gold prices hovered near 2,900 USD per troy ounce, holding steady as the US dollar weakened and demand for safe-haven assets rose. Concerns about the US economic outlook and escalating trade tensions continue to support Gold’s consolidation.

Key market drivers for Gold

Fears of an economic downturn intensified after President Donald Trump referred to the current situation as a "period of transition" in an interview with Fox News, implying that current policies may lead to a recession.

Meanwhile, trade tensions remain elevated. The US had recently delayed imposing a 25% tariff on select Canadian and Mexican goods for a month while Canada maintained its retaliatory measures. China imposed additional tariffs on some American agricultural products in response to the US tariff hikes.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increasing economic uncertainty but refrained from signalling an imminent interest rate cut.

This week, US inflation data will be in focus, as it may shape the Fed’s future policy outlook. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 19 March.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, Gold recently formed a growth wave to 2,931 USD, followed by a correction to 2,880 USD. An upward move towards 2,906 USD is forming a consolidation range around this level. A breakout to the upside could trigger a further rise towards 2,980 USD, the local target. After reaching this level, a correction back to 2,900 USD is likely. If the price moves downward from the consolidation range, a correction to 2,860 USD is possible. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing sharply upward.

On the H1 chart, Gold completed a correction wave to 2,880 USD, and the market is now forming a new growth wave towards 2,906 USD, which is expected to be reached today. A subsequent potential pullback to 2,891 USD may occur, forming a consolidation range around this level. If Gold breaks downward from this range, a correction to 2,860 USD is possible before a renewed upward move. However, an upward breakout would open the path towards 2,980 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and pointing firmly upward.

Conclusion

Gold remains in consolidation, balancing between a weakening US dollar and ongoing economic uncertainties. Technical indicators suggest a likely upward move towards 2,980 USD, though short-term corrections to 2,900 USD or 2,860 USD could occur before further gains. Market sentiment largely depends on upcoming US inflation data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations.

• GBP/USD takes a breather after hitting a five-month high.
• Overbought signals strengthen as price tests key resistance.

GBPUSD has been treading water around the 1.2923 level, struggling to gain further traction after its March bull run stalled near the upper boundary of its bullish channel.

The pair surged as high as 1.2945 last week, marking its highest level since November 2024. However, strengthening overbought signals suggest the recent rally may be losing steam, as the RSI and the stochastic oscillator seem to have peaked above 30 and 20, respectively.

A decisive breakout above the 1.2923-1.2950 resistance—aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downtrend—could reignite buying interest. If the November peak of 1.3040 is surpassed, momentum could build toward the 2023 high of 1.3140, with the next resistance possibly emerging near 1.3260, a key barrier from August 2024 and March 2022.

On the flip side, if sellers regain control, the pair may retreat toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which hovers just above the 50% Fibonacci level of 1.2765, and the 20-day SMA at 1.2712. Further losses could bring the lower band of the bullish channel into play around the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.2600, ahead of the 50-day SMA at 1.2513.

In summary, GBPUSD is at a crucial juncture. A push beyond 1.2950 and out of the bullish channel could inject fresh momentum. Otherwise, the next move could see the pair sliding backwards.

As shown on the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) index chart today:

→ The index has fallen below the psychological 20,000-point level, reaching its lowest in approximately six months.

→ The decline from the December peak now exceeds 10%, officially marking the start of a correction.

Why the Nasdaq 100 Is Falling Today

Bearish sentiment stems from a combination of factors, including (according to Zacks analysts):

→ The Trump administration’s tariff policies and their potential economic impact. Concerns increased after the latest jobs report showed unemployment rising from 4.0% to 4.1%.

→ Worries about AI investment costs and their long-term profitability.

→ Market anticipation of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 15:30 GMT+3.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart

Price movements indicate that the steeper growth channel (marked in black), which had been in place since last August, has lost relevance. A broader view of the chart reveals that the index has now approached the lower boundary of a long-term channel (marked in blue), which has been forming since early 2024. Key price formations that helped define this channel are highlighted in orange.

Given that the index is at the lower boundary of the blue channel and the RSI indicator on the daily chart has dropped to multi-year lows, a short-term recovery may be likely. However, the fundamental backdrop will play a decisive role—clear signs of U.S. economic stability could support a rebound, while extreme fear (as reflected in CNN’s Fear & Greed Index) may continue to weigh on sentiment.

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Market picture

Crypto market capitalisation has been falling to $2.5 trillion following the rumbling fall of the US stock market. It is dipping below the peaks of early 2024 and late 2021. Previously, a similar decline would complete a corrective pullback, attracting buyers. However, the chances of such an outcome are now lower than in previous years due to the powerful influence of traditional financial companies, which has strengthened the link between the crypto market and stock dynamics.

For now, though, we can argue that there is less terror in crypto. The Fear and Greed Index is at 24 (+4 points for the day), while the low point was a week earlier at 10.

Bitcoin slipped towards $76.5K in the early hours of Tuesday but has popped above $80K at the time of writing, approaching Monday’s consolidation levels. A bearish pattern persists on the daily timeframes, which suggests a strengthening sell-off after a failure under the 200-day moving average. The scenario of a pullback to the $70-74K area still looks the most probable for us. This is all the truer as the consolidation and rebound in early March has taken the short-term oversold stance out of the market.

Ethereum is trying to find a pivot point after falling towards $1750 at the start of Tuesday. These were the lowest values in the last 17 months. On weekly timeframes, the RSI oscillator hit its lowest point since mid-2022 – near the bottom of the bear market. Does this signify an opportunity for the recklessly bold or a breakdown in the leading altcoin? We will find out in the coming days.

News background

According to CoinShares, global crypto fund investments fell by $876 million last week after record outflows of $2.911 billion a week earlier. Investments in Bitcoin fell by $756 million; in Ethereum, by $89 million. Investments in Solana rose by $16 million, in XRP by $6 million, and in Sui by $3 million.

Another recalculation increased Bitcoin mining difficulty by 1.43% to 112.15T. The growth did not compensate for a 3.15% drop two weeks ago. However, the figure came close to the all-time high of 114.17T reached in January.

Strategy (former MicroStrategy) intends to raise $21bn through the sale of preferred shares as part of its At-The-Market program. The proceeds will be used to buy Bitcoin and other corporate purposes.

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of the Natural Gas futures ticker symbol: $NG_F. The rally from the 31 January 2025 low showed a higher high sequence & provided a short-term opportunity at the blue box area. In this case, the pullback managed to reach the Elliott wave blue box area & reacted strongly. So, we advised members not to sell Natural Gas but to buy the pullbacks in 3, 7 or 11 swings. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Natural Gas 1-Hourr Elliott Wave Chart From 3.07.2025

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 3.07.2025 Asia update. In which, the rally to $4.551 high ended wave ((i)) & made a pullback in wave ((ii)). The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave (a) ended at $4.227 low. A short-term bounce to $4.518 high then ended wave (b) & started the next leg lower in wave (c) towards $4.195- $3.993 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

Natural Gas Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.11.2025

Above is the Latest 1-hour Elliott Wave Chart from the 3.11.2025 Asia update. In which the Natural Gas is showing a perfect reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking a long position. Since then, the $NG_F has already made a new high above $4.551 high confirming the next extension higher towards $5.226- $5.577 target area.

We saw another big drop in the stock market yesterday, with SP500 pulling back now around 10 percent from all-time highs. This type of correction has always been proved to be a healthy one since 2023, as each similar pullback was later fully reversed. This suggests we could still see some price stabilization this week. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, tomorrow could bring interesting price movements, especially if inflation data in US softens due to lower energy prices since mid-January.

On another note, trade tarrfis tensions remain a key market driver, with reports that Canada may take also some actions against US tariffs. This reinforces the idea that no one wins in a trade war, but it could still keep the US dollar bearish as other countries continue responding.

The dollar index is pushing lower, breaking lower with an extended wave three, with an interesting target around the 103 area.Next wave four bounce is a sell.

US30, Daily

In the Daily timeframe, US30 fell to the critical support area, testing MA200. The CCI confirms the market weakness and forms a trend line, a break above, which will indicate the possibility of a rebound.

• If the price breaks through 41900 and MA200, the decline will continue to 40300;
• A rebound from the support will bring US30 back to 43400;

In focus today

Focus in the euro area is on the ECB watchers conference where several ECB officials will be present. We will particular pay attention to Lagarde's speech at 09:45 CET.

From the US, the January JOLTs labour turnover survey is due for release. The number of job openings is a key measure of labour demand for the Fed. Markets will also pay close attention to the NFIB's small business optimism survey given the ongoing political uncertainty and its negative impact on business confidence.

In Sweden, the Riksbank attends a parliamentary hearing on 2024 and current monetary policy. The hearing starts at 09.00 and ends at 11.30. All five board members will participate. We hope to get some clarity on how the individual members assess the risk balance between higher-than-expected inflation prints and the still fragile recovery.

Overnight, many large Japanese companies will announce their responses to their union's demands. Unions have requested a 6.1% pay increase this year, the highest in 32 years. Solid pay increases are key for the continued economic recovery in Japan and the outlook for a continuation of Bank of Japan hikes.

US and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia today to discuss strategies to end the three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although Zelenskyy spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince yesterday, he will not attend today's meeting. However, he assured that Ukraine will participate constructively.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In euro area, the Sentix investor confidence indicator increased more than expected in March to -2.9 (cons: -9.3) from -12.7 in February. Although the index remains low historically, the upward trend is positive, marking its highest level since June. Historically, the Sentix indicator has correlated well with the PMIs, suggesting an expected rise in PMIs for March as well.

In Germany, the Greens declared that they will not support the coming chancellor Merz's spending package and change of the debt brake. This announcement precedes the parliamentary vote next Tuesday, where the CDU and SPD requires support from the Greens for a two-thirds supermajority to pass the bill. However, we see the statement from The Greens as a negotiating tactic to get concessions e.g. on more green spending in the fund and not an outright refusal of the package. The proposal from the SPD and CDU/CSU aligns closely with the Greens' election campaign so we expect them to eventually back a package, which also seems to be the conviction in markets that moved only marginally on the news.

German industrial production exceeded expectations in January, increasing by 2.0% m/m (prior: -1.5%, cons: 1.5%). The less volatile three-month comparison shows stable production from November 2024 to January 2025 (0.0%). Although production has stabilised, it is premature to declare the end of the previous declining trend, given its volatility and PMIs below 50.

In Denmark, Danish CPI inflation rose to 2.0% (prior: 1.5%), slightly exceeding expectations. This marks a return to 2%, a level not seen since summer 2023. The increase was driven by rising electricity prices, and rent. Rent increases were partly due to adjustments in subsidised housing, indicating some costs are still being passed to tenants. Overall, Danish price pressure remains relatively muted.

In Sweden, the monthly indicators presented mixed signals. The GDP indicator, known for its unreliability, fell 0.5% m/m but showed positive y/y growth. Household consumption, typically volatile but reasonable measure, decreased from December, indicating a sideways movement overall. Industrial orders exceeded expectations, rising 16% y/y. Private production remained stable, with industrial production value down following a strong previous month. This aligned with our view that Sweden's business sector was performing well, while households continued to face challenges.

In Norway, core inflation increased to 3.4% y/y (prior: 2.8%, cons: 2.9%) in February, notably exceeding Norges Bank's estimate of 2.7%. This unexpected increase raises the question of whether Norges Bank will reconsider its plan to cut rates in March, especially as January figures also exceeded expectations, hinting at accelerating inflation. The likelihood of Norges Bank cutting rates in March has decreased (from almost 100%), and it has become a very close call by now. Markets are pricing 14bp worth of rate cuts for the March meeting and hence close to a 50/50 call. We still expect Norges Bank to deliver the 25bp cut.

Equities: US equities were in free fall yesterday. Nasdaq plunged -4%, marking its worst day since 2022. This was not a rotation into defensives or European shares, but a full-blown growth fear reaction from investors. Clearly, markets tested the Trump put. Or the Musk put for that matter, with Tesla leading the declines by dropping -15%, marking its worst day since 2020. Magnificent Seven all sharply lower, in the ballpark of 2-5%, thereby leading the declines. However, value cyclicals like banks and materials were hit as well. Hence, equal-weight S&P 500 was also dramatically lower, but outperforming cap-weighted index by 130bp. Unlike the last weeks, risk-off also spread to Europe, triggering a classic risk-off rotation leading cyclicals (banks, tech, industrials) to drop 2-3% while defensive stocks were higher. VIX rose to the highest level since August last year.

S&P 500 is now down -8.5% and we are therefore closing in on correction territory. Nasdaq is already there, down -12%. This means that we are inches away from a level where markets typically trough if we are not heading for recession. If this is indeed a correction, positioning is our best friend. Our correction monitor is turning closer to typical "oversold conditions" but not quite there. There are still many more calls in the market, CTA beta remains high, valuations are bloated, and LIBOR vs OIS (the banks stress indicator) is at normal levels. On top of this, markets are in the hands of Trump and not fundamentals. This combination does not make us bold. Hence, we stick to our Europe vs US allocation and do not recommend overweighting US shares just yet.

FI&FX: US yields resumed the decline in yesterday's session amid rising recession fears in markets sending US equities severely in red territory on the first trading day of the week. 10Y and 2Y US swap yields both fell by around ~8 bp which also contributed to stalling the EUR rates sell-off. The Bund ASW-spread is still trading around -12bp. In the Scandies the NOK CPI surprise drove a substantial flattening of the curve with 2s10s dropping 7bp amid markets now pricing the "promised" March Norges Bank rate cut as a close to 50/50-event. This also contributed to NOK being the big overperformer in FX markets even despite Brent Crude oil prices falling below USD 70/bbl on rising growth concerns. EUR/SEK rose somewhat in the early part of yesterday's session now trading just below the 11.00 mark. EUR/USD did little during yesterday's session.

Markets

There were hardly any (US) data with market moving potential yesterday. If anything, the NY Fed 1-year inflation gauge again drifted marginally higher (3.13%). US officials, including Donald Trump, also abstained from ‘high profile’ comments. Still, it didn’t change markets’ assessment. The unwinding of the US exceptionalism trade continued and even intensified. Major US equity indices declined between 2.08% (Dow) and 4.0% (Nasdaq). The latter cleared the 17468 support (23% retracement rally 2022/24) and reached the target of the ST multiple top formation (neckline 18831). A clear warning signal. Powell’s ‘guidance’ last Friday, that the Fed won’t be carried away by one or two softer data to remove its wait-and-see stance didn’t impress markets. US yields declined between 11.9 bps (5-y) and 5.7 bps (30-y). The US 2-y yield revisited last week’s correction low near 3.84%. Markets are moving further into 75 bps + territory regarding this year’s Fed rate cut expectations. Yields at longer maturities didn’t really test the ST lows. The decline in US yields and steepening of the yield curve in the first place probably mirrors market uncertainty on the impact of the Trump chaos on ST growth and the need/hope for the Fed to come to the rescue at some point. At the same time an ongoing underperformance/ bottoming out of yields at longer maturities at some point also might be an indication of the market questioning the LT US (economic and political) credentials. Whatever one sees as the reason for yesterday’s ‘sell USA repositioning’ (cyclical or structural) it also prevent the dollar from taking up its (usual/previous?) safe haven role. DXY closed little changed near 103.9. Idem for EUR/USD (close 1.0834). The safe haven role, if any, was taken up by the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY briefly dropping below the 147 big figure. Regarding the European side of the global repositioning, the German Greens ‘rejecting’ the proposed reform of the constitutional debt brake (cf infra) maybe to some extent tempered the rise in German/EU yields. Still German yields (2-y -3.1 bps; 30-y +0.7 bp) held up remarkably well given the sharp decline in the US.

Asian equity indices this morning mostly show losses of up to 1.0%/1.5%, with trading still developing rather orderly given yesterday’s WS sell-off US. US yields tentatively stabilize (minus 1/2 bps) , but nothing more than that. The dollar struggles to prevent further losses (DXY 103.7, EUR/USD 1.086, USD/JPY 147.3). Later today, the eco calendar ‘in normal times’ would be assessed as containing only second tier releases with only the US NFIB small business confidence and the JOLTS job openings scheduled for release. However, in current environment, negative surprises might further fuel the reversal of the ‘US exceptionalism trade’. In Europe, the objections of German Greens at least isn’t seen as profoundly changing the new framework of fiscal stimulus. The Bund future is again drifting lower. On FX markets, EUR/USD remains well bid. Las week’s correction top (1.0889) stays within reach with only 1.0937 (Nov top) last intermediate resistance on the path to a complete reversal to the 1.1214 2024 top.

News & Views

The German Green party presented a counter-offer after indicating that they wouldn’t support Chancellor-to-be Merz’s proposed constitutional reforms to raise deficit spending via the outgoing parliament (new Bundestag gets seated on March 25). The Greens want to raise the threshold for defense spending exemptions from debt rules to 1.5% of GDP instead of the 1% proposed by Merz. They don’t seem to have an issue with the two other pillars of the plan, setting up a €500bn infrastructure fund and loosing states’ fiscal rules. The main bills are interconnected and probably need to pass together through parliament. Afterwards, the Bundesrat, representing the states also needs to approve proposed legislature with a 2/3rd majority. Some more horse-trading will be needed as CDU/CSU/SPD/Greens lack the numbers in two of the 16 states.

UK consumer spending lost momentum in February after a bounce in January. Sales at member stores of the British Retail Consortium rose by 1.1% Y/Y, down from 2.6% Y/Y in January. BRC CEO Dickinson said that the weak performance makes many retailers uneasy, especially as they brace for GBP 7bn of new costs from the Budget and packaging levy in 2025, as well as the potential impact of the Employment Rights bill. The industry is already doing all it can to absorb existing costs, but they will be left with little choice but to increase prices or reduce investment in jobs and shops, or both.