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USDTRY hit a new all-time high of 5.4243 yesterday before prices pulled back a little today. The upside momentum had eased between May and July but started to gain traction again during August.

Momentum indicators are holding firmly in the bullish zone but warn of a possible overextended rally. The RSI has crossed into overbought territory above 70 and is now pointing downwards, suggesting a weakening of the positive momentum. The stochastics paint a similar picture with the %K line posting a bearish crossover with the slower moving %D line in the overbought region.

Should USDTRY continue to head higher, the next major resistance will likely come from the 423.6% Fibonacci extension of the downleg from 4.9786 to 4.7348, around 5.7675. A climb above this barrier would put the focus on the psychological 6.0000 level. But first, the pair would need to overcome immediate resistance at the 261.8% Fibonacci extension around 5.3730.

However, if today’s losses developed into a downside correction, support should initially come at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 5.1300. Further down, the July 12 swing high would likely provide support at 4.9786, while below that, the 50% Fibonacci at 4.8565 should be watched.

Looking at the more longer-term outlook, the pair remains on a clear uptrend, which has steepened sharply in recent months.

The European and Asian sessions were happy to book ‘long’ dollar profits, but North America has decided to renew their acquaintance with the dollar bulls.

A lack of major economic data releases and a stabilizing Chinese yuan overnight provided a temporary reprieve for risk assets and EM currencies.

Another strong JOLTS jobs opening report (+6.66M) has provided the dollar some early support, enabling it to retrace some of its overnight losses.

Sterling’s Wild West

Trading GBP/USD (£1.2943) is proving to be a bit like the Wild West – unpredictable – the pound is again threatening to penetrate yesterday’s record 12-month low now that its failed to benefit from last week’s Bank of England rate rise. Markets are now turning their attention to the Brexit process, which will likely dominate trends in GBP for the remainder of this year.

Loonie failing to fly

USD/CAD (C$1.3020) is another early looser against the dollar, despite crude oil prices remaining better bid now that the U.S has re-introduced sanctions against oil exporter Iran that is expected to tighten global supply.

The loonie has lost some appeal with the Can Ivey July PMI producing a disappointing headline (61.8 vs. 64.2). Dollar bulls want to see C$1.3040 break before adding to their ‘short’ CAD positions again.

Turkish lira takes a bath

The Turkish lira ($5.2492) has recovered some lost ground after plummeting to new record lows yesterday ($5.42), helped by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announcing a cut in the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks, a measure which should boost dollar liquidity. Turkish 10-year bond yields have backed up +25 bps to +20%.

Yesterday’s necessary course of action reaffirms the central banks reluctance to hike rates.

However, the plunge in the currency over the past few weeks is now on a scale, which has, in the past, prompted the CBRT to hike interest rates aggressively. Will the CBRT hike the repo rate this week? They need to, but will they dare defy President Recep Tayyip Erdogan?

With little economic data to hang your hat on, low volumes and market participation, most investors prefer to wait for a significant breakout in any of the G7 pairs before participating with any gusto.

Canada Ivey PMI dropped to 61.8 in July, down from 63.1 and missed expectation of 64.2. The index spiked higher to 71.5 back in April but that was just a one month wonder.

Employment index dropped to 55.3, down from 59.3.

Inventory index rose to 56.2, up from 51.7.

Supplier deliveries index dropped to 46.6, down from 47.0.

Prices index dropped to 71.1, down from 74.3.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.19; (P) 111.37; (R1) 111.60; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. The corrective fall from 113.17 might extend lower. But in case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.14 will target a test on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9935; (P) 0.9960; (R1) 0.9991; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with today's steep retreat. With 0.9920 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Above 0.9984 will target a test on 1.0067 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9920 minor support will turn bias to the downside, to bring another decline to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.0056.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we'd expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 fibonacci level will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2904; (P) 1.2960; (R1) 1.2999; More...

With 1.2998 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside. Current down trend from 1.4376 should target 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.2998 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But in case of recovery, upside should be limited below 1.3212 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4141). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. Decisive break of 1.2874 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 1.1946 low. On the upside, break of 1.3212 resistance is needed to be the first indication of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1532; (P) 1.1552 (R1) 1.1574; More.....

EUR/USD's rebound suggests bottoming at 1.1529. Focus is back on 1.1610 minor resistance. Break will indicates that the consolidation pattern from 1.1509 has started another rise leg. Intraday will be turned back to the upside for 1.1745 resistance, and possibly above. Still, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1851 to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1507 key support will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Dollar trades broadly lower today and selloff accelerates in early US session. EUR/USD's reversal ahead of 1.1507 key support level is a factor pressing the greenback. The Chinese Yuan is also attempting another rebound after yesterday's brief setback, with USD/CNH back pressing 6.82.

The overall development helps lifted global equities too. At the time of writing, DAX is up 0.86%, CAC up 0.83% and FTSE up 0.99%. Earlier in the Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.69%, Singapore Strait Times gained 1.66% while Hong Kong HSI increased 1.54%. China Shanghai SSE defended 2700 handle again and jumped 2.74% to 2779.37.

With the help of easing risk aversion, Australian Dollar is trading as the strongest one today, followed by Euro. Sterling is the second weakest one as worries over no-deal Brexit continues to weigh.

Technically, Euro is a major focus in the current session. EUR/USD's immediate focus in on 1.1610 minor resistance. Break will confirm bottoming and EUR/USD should then start another rising leg in the consolidation pattern from 1.1509, targeting 1.1745 resistance EUR/GBP is now pressing 0.8957 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume medium term rally from April low at 0.8620.

German trade surplus narrowed, industrial production dropped

Euro shrugs off another batch of weak German economic data. Released from Germany, trade surplus narrowed to EUR 21.8B (EUR 19.3B seasonally adjusted) in June. Exports rose 7.8% yoy to EUR 115.5B. Imports rose 10.2% yoy to 93.7B. Industrial production dropped -0.9% mom in June, worse than expectation of -0.5%. Also from Europe, Swiss foreign currency reserves rose to CHF 750B in July. UK Halifax house prices rose 1.4% mom in July.

China foreign exchange reserves rose 0.19% in July

The Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in its website that at the end of July this year, the country was holding USD 3.1179T in foreign exchange reserves, up USD 5.8B, or 0.19% from end of June.

SAFE said that cross-border capital flows were generally stable. And, supply and demand in the foreign exchange markets was balanced. The jump in FX reserve was primarily due to non-US dollar currency exchange rate conversion and asset price changes

However, SAFE also noted the volatility in global financial markets and the "double rally" in USD exchange rates and interest rates. Some emerging markets were hit hard because of that. Additionally, "external uncertainties" increased due to escalating trade conflicts.

RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%

RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% for the 22nd meeting today. The accompanying statement continued to deliver a "neutral" tone on the future path of the monetary policy. Since the last meeting, domestic economic growth has stayed, and will stay, "above trend" while the job market has continued to improve.

Wage growth has remained soft but the worst is likely over. Hopefully, this would help lift household consumption which has been RBA's major concern. The statement had more coverage of inflation that the previous one. The discussion signals that RBA might downgrade its inflation forecast at the upcoming Statement of Monetary Policy.

Inflation has been "in line" with RBA's expectations with headline CPI and core CPI at 2.1% and close to 2%, respectively, in the past year. It suggested that the central forecast is "for inflation to be higher in 2019 and 2020 than it is currently". Meanwhile, it noted that "once-off declines in some administered prices in the September quarter are expected to result in headline inflation in 2018 being a little lower than earlier expected, at 1.75%". This signals that we might see downward revision in inflation forecast at the Statement of Monetary Policy due Friday.

More in RBA Keeps Policy Rate at Record Low for Two Years; Might Downgrade 2018 Inflation Forecast

Japan real wages grew at fastest pace since 1997

Japan nominal labor cash earnings rose strongly by 3.6% yoy in June versus expectation of 1.7% yoy. Real wages grew 2.8% yoy, the fastest pace in 21 years since January 1997. Looking at the details, regular pay grew 1.5% yoy. One-off payment including bonuses jumped an impressive 7.0% yoy. Overtime pay also rose 3.5% yoy, a notable acceleration of 2.0% yoy in May. The set of data should be welcomed by BoJ. Nonetheless, persistent strength is needed to eventually change the "social mode" of deflation mind set, which suppresses inflation pressures.

Also from Japan, overall household spending dropped -1.2% yoy in June, matched expectations. Leading index dropped to 105.2 in June, down from 106.9 and missed expectation of 105.4.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1532; (P) 1.1552 (R1) 1.1574; More.....

EUR/USD's rebound suggests bottoming at 1.1529. Focus is back on 1.1610 minor resistance. Break will indicates that the consolidation pattern from 1.1509 has started another rise leg. Intraday will be turned back to the upside for 1.1745 resistance, and possibly above. Still, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1851 to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1507 key support will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Economic Indicators Update

Here are the latest developments in global markets:

FOREX: The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, eased by 0.26% today, after it came close to the more than 1-year high of 95.652 on Monday. Dollar/yen retreated as well by 0.20%, while euro/dollar picked up speed, trading near 1.1600 (+0.30%). Also, pound/dollar recovered some ground (+0.18%) after falling to an 11-month low overnight on worries about a no-deal UK exit from the European Union. A Bloomberg report stated today that the UK government aims to postpone October’s Brexit deal deadline to November when the G20 meeting will take place and EU leaders will likely need to have a complete Brexit picture before they meet the US president. In the antipodean sphere, aussie/dollar moved higher by 0.62% following the RBA policy meeting today (see below), creating a 1-week high at 0.7437, while kiwi/dollar rose by 0.25%. Dollar/loonie continued the negative movement, dropping by 0.30% to post an almost two-month low. The Turkish lira held near its all-time lows against the US dollar as heightened concern over a diplomatic spat with the US overshadowed the central bank’s attempt to support the currency.

STOCKS: European equities advanced considerably on Tuesday. The UK’s FTSE 100, German DAX and French CAC 40 were up by 0.58%, 0.89%, and 0.71% respectively, recovering some of their losses after last week’s sell-off. Even the Italian FTSE MIB, which underperformed yesterday, was up by 0.18%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up by 0.50%, while the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 traded higher by 0.71%. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 traded higher on Tuesday by 0.16%, 0.35%, and 0.3% respectively, pointing to a positive open on Wall Street today.

COMMODITIES: Oil prices were in bullish mode as the US activated its renewed sanctions against Iran today. WTI crude oil jumped by 0.61% to $69.43, while Brent rose by 0.89% to $74.41, erasing Monday’s losses. In precious metals, gold moved higher (+0.79%) on the back of a weaker greenback after the rebound from the 17-month low.

Day ahead: JOLTS Job openings, global dairy prices in focus; BoJ summary of opinions pending

Developments on the trade front will continue to concern investors during the day as the recent war of words between the US and China signaled that tensions are unlikely to ease anytime soon, with Chinese authorities warning on Monday that China could survive its conflict with the US after threatening import tariffs on $60 billion goods imported from the US on Friday. While it is too early to identify the impact of US tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed to China as well as to other US allies such as Japan and the EU, July’s exports and import figures out of China on Wednesday at a tentative time could give some evidence on China’s trade conditions. Particularly, analysts believe that overall Chinese exports have slowed down slightly, growing by 10.0% year-on-year (y/y) compared to 11.2% in June, while imports are projected to have picked up speed, from 14.1% y/y to 16.2%. Hence, the trade balance is expected to come in lower, with the surplus falling by $2.14 billion to $39.33.

Out of the US, JOLTs job openings and consumers credit numbers due later today at 1400 GMT and 1900 GMT respectively could drive the dollar in the absence of any other major data releases.

Meanwhile in Japan, the focus will turn to monetary policy early in the Asian session as the Bank of Japan is scheduled to publish its summary of opinions for its 30-31 July meeting at 2350 GMT. Note that during the latest gathering, the Bank underlined that interest rates would remain low for an “extended period of time” and the trading range on 10-year Japanese government bonds could be more flexible, with investors wondering how long the stimulus program could persist at a time when other central banks such as the Fed have already started the unwinding process. A Reuters report, however, revealed for the first time that plans over raising rates twice this year were discussed. Earlier today, Japan’s Statistics Bureau showed that household spending declined for the fifth month in June on a yearly basis, but by less than expected, and real wages surprisingly hit the highest growth rate in 21 years due to larger bonus increases in the summer.

In Australia monetary policy will remain in the forefront as well, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor, Philip Lowe, giving a speech at 0305 GMT on Wednesday at the Anika Foundation Luncheon in Sydney. Recall that today, the RBA decided – as widely anticipated – to keep rates at a record low of 1.5%, However, it said that “over the next couple of years” the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 5.0% rather than 5.25% seen previously.

In New Zealand, the kiwi could see some fluctuation in the wake of global dairy prices at a tentative time as dairy products hold the largest share of New Zealand’s exports.

In Canada, Ivey PMIs will be available for review at 1400 GMT, with scope to drive the loonie. Still, not much reaction is expected as recent releases brought no significant changes to the currency.

Geopolitical updates could be of interest as well following the activation of US sanctions against Iran at midnight in Washington. Restrictions include the purchase of dollar banknotes by Iran, gold and other metals as well as auto purchases. In the North Korean peninsula, concerns over the denuclearization of the region moved back to the forefront, with the US National Security Adviser, John Bolton, criticizing on Monday North Korea’s efforts to abandon its nuclear program as promised to the US president.

Notes/Observations

• German Jun Trade Balance registers a slightly better surplus but exports highlighted mounting trade tension were starting to bite
• Germany Jun Industrial Production registered another data miss highlights the slowdown in growth momentum ahead.
• UK Halifax data strengthen evidence of uptick in UK house prices
• China July FX Reserves registers its 2nd straight monthly rise

Asia:

• RBA left its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 1.50%; as expected; sees CPI a bit lower in 2018 but higher in 2019-20 period
• Japan Jun Labor Cash Earnings y/y: 3.6% v 1.7%e (multi-year high); Real Cash Earnings y/y: 2.8% v 0.9%e (fastest rise since Jan 1997)
• Japan Jun Household Spending M/M: 2.9% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.4%e (5th straight decline)
• BoJ board said to have considered raising rates before tweaking policy in July. BoJ said to have considered raising rates in Jan 2018, but did not do it amid market turbulence. The moves the BoJ took last week said to be a compromise between board member Amamiya ('Mr BOJ') and Gov Kuroda

Europe:

• Germany wants its Economic Ministry to be able to intervene in investments and takeovers if an investor outside the European Union acquires a shareholding of at least 15 percent in a German company
• PM May UK PM May to meet Scotland First Min Sturgeon after Brexit standoff
• UK July BRC Sales LFL y/y: 0.5% v 1.5%e; total sales growth slowed as the heat laid bare the underlying weakness in consumer spending

Americas:

• Mexico Econ Min Guajardo: NAFTA negotiations still have many subjects remaining on the table. To return to Washington for further NAFTA talks in the middle of this week

Energy:

• Iran President Rouhani: the US could not be trusted; Tehran govt had always believed in diplomacy. Opened to talks if US was 'sincere' but talks alongside sanctions was meaningless
• White House National Security Adviser Bolton: If Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, it would be their 'worst mistake'

Economic Data:

• (NL) Netherlands July CPI M/M: +1.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.1 v 1.7% prior
• (NL) Netherlands July CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +1.1% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.6%e
• (DE) Germany Jun Current Account Balance: €26.2B v €20.9Be; Trade Balance: €21.8B v €20.9Be; Exports M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Imports M/M: 1.2% v 0.3%e
• (DE) Germany Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.0%e
• (NO) Norway Jun Industrial Production M/M: +4.7% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: +2/9% v -1.6% prior
• (NO) Norway Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5% prior
• (DK) Denmark Jun Industrial Production M/M: +0.3% v -1.5% prior
• (ZA) South Africa July Gross Reserves: $50.5B v $50.6B prior; Net Reserves: $42.3B v $42.5B prior
• (FR) France Jun Trade Balance: -€6.3B v -€5.5Be
• (FR) France Jun Current Account: -€2.6B v -€2.9B prior
• (CH) Swiss Q2 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.00 v 1.09 prior
• (MY) Malaysia End-July Foreign Reserves: $104.5B v $104.6B prior
• (ES) Spain Jun House transactions Y/Y: 1.8% v 4.7% prior
• (CH) Swiss July Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 749.7B v 748.2B prior
• (AT) Austria July Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.3% prior
• (CZ) Czech Jun National Trade Balance (CZK): 15.8B v 15.6Be
• (HU) Hungary Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.2% v +1.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.8% prior
• (UK) July Halifax House Prices M/M: 1.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.7%e
• (SE) Sweden Jun Private Sector Production M/M: 0.3% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.0%e
• (SE) Sweden Jun Industrial Orders M/M: -5.8% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -3.5% v 2.2% prior
• (SE) Sweden Jun Industry Production Value Y/Y: 5.7% v 4.7% prior, Service Production Value Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.3% prior
• (SE) Sweden July Budget Balance (SEK): +15.7B v -17.3B prior
• (TW) Taiwan July CPI Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.3%e; WPI Y/Y: 7.0% v 6.6% prior
• (TW) Taiwan July Trade Balance: $2.2B v $5.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 4.7% v 7.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 20.5% v 10.0%e
• (CN) China July Foreign Reserves: $3.118T v $3.107Te (2nd straight monthly rise)
• (CZ) Czech July International Reserves: $144.6B v $144.2B prior
• (IS) Iceland July Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -15.5B v -20.5B prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

• None seen

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.6% at 391.0, FTSE +0.7% at 7719, DAX +1.0% at 12725, CAC-40 +0.9% at 5526, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 9797, FTSE MIB +1.0% at 21803, SMI +0.5% at 9193 S&P 500 Futures +0.3%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

• European Indices trade higher across the board following on from strong Asian Indices and positive US futures.
• On the earnings front financial names Unicredit and Commerzbank reported results, while German names Deutsche Post trades higher along with Schaeffler, Heidelberger Druck and Wacker Neuson following results, while Beiersdorf, Zalando trade lower.
• Danish Jewelry maker Pandora trades almost 20% lower after cutting its outlook, with Meggit Galenica and Dominos Uk among other notable decliners.
• Looking ahead notable earners include Dean Foods, Crox, Emerson Electric and Aramark Holdings.

Movers

• Consumer Discretionary Pandora [PNDORA.DK] -19.5% (Cuts outlook), Zalando [ZAL.DE] -5.3% (Earnings), Beiersdorf [BEI.DE] -2.1% (Earnings), IHG [IHG.UK] -1.2% (Earnings), Dominos UK -10% (Earnings)
• Financials Uni Credit [UCG.IT] +2.0% (Earnings)
• Industrials Oerlikon [OERL.CH] +10% (Earnings), Meggit [MGGT.UK] -0.9% (Earnings), Shaeffler [SHA.DE] +7.4% (Earnings), Deutsche Post [DPW.DE] +2.0% (Earnings), Wacker Neuson [WAC.DE] +11.3% (Earnings)

Speakers

• Italy Dep PM Di Maio (5-Star party leader): Senior officials to meet on Wed, Aug 8th to discuss the next budget
• China PBoC Policy Adviser stated that govt should further improve targeted RRR cuts and macroprudential assessment mechanism; should use policy interest rate to replace bank lending and deposit rates over time
• China FX Regulator SAFE reiterated that cross-border capital flows to remain stable overall, Financial asset price fluctuation and changes in non-USD currencies led to increase in July FX data. Global trade frictions had risen since the start of 2018 and the fluctuation in CNY currency had increased

Currencies

• Trade tensions remained the predominate theme but the USD saw some consolidation in its recent strength as Treasury bond yields stopped its march north for the time being.
• EUR/USD stayed above the 1.15 handle for the time being and continued its summer trading range. The pair was higher by 0.2%
• GBP/USD was steady but not too far from recent 10-month lows as Brexit concerns remains the key trading catalyst.

Fixed Income

• Bund Futures trades at 162.29 up 4 ticks as the German trade surplus narrowed and industrial production dropped. A move back above 162.75 would target 163.47 then 163.63, with a move below 161.75 targeting 161.45 then 160.45.
• Gilt futures trades at 122.99 up 3 ticks, as Gilts continue to hover around 123 with continuing upside targeting 123.18 then 124.44, with a move lower seeing initial support at 122.23 then 121.85.
• Tuesday 's liquidity report showed Monday's excess liquidity fell from €1.905T to €1.897T. Use of the marginal lending facility fell from €290M to €190M.
• Corporate issuance saw 10 issuers raise $10.5B in the primary market

Looking Ahead

• (IL) Israel July Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $114.8B prior
• 05.30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL sales data
• 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills
• 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €1.3-1.7B in 6-month and 12-month Bills
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR2.4B in 2032, 2040 and 2048 bonds
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v 3.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior
• 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Bonds
• 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €2.0B in 3-month bills
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) COPOM Minutes
• 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.3% prior
• 07:45 (US) Weekly Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales
• 08:00 (PL) Poland July Official Reserves: No est v $109.0B prior
• 08:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction (held on Wed)
• 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (CL) Chile July Trade Balance: $0.3Be v $0.5B prior; Total Exports: $6.0Be v $6.5B prior; Total Imports: $5.5Be v $6.0B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.3B prior
• 08:30 (CL) Chile July International Reserves: No est v $37.0B prior
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
• 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
• 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Nominal Wage M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
• 09:00 (RU) Russia July Official Reserve Assets: $458.6Be v $456.7B prior
• 09:30 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction
• 10:00 (CA) Canada July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 63.1 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 65.1 prior
• 10:00 (US) Jun JOLTS Job Openings: 6.625Me v 6.638M prior
• 10:30 (TR) Turkey July Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -26.7B prior
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
• 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes
• 15:00 (US) Jun Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $24.6B prior
• 15:00 (MX) Mexico Citibanamex Survey of Economists
• 16:00 (AR) Argentina Central Bank (BCRA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the 7-Day Repo Reference Rate unchanged at 40.00%
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories