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Aussie Trading On A Weaker Footing In The Morning Session

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7560, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7517. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7643, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7683.


For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.71% against the USD and closed at 0.7612 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 0.4% or $27.0/MT to $6734.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.7% or $13.5/MT to $2046.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7604, with the AUD trading 0.11% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7560, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7517. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7643, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7683.

Moving ahead, market participants would anxiously await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision, due tomorrow. Additionally, Australia’s AiG performance of services index for November and retail sales data for October, will also be eyed by traders.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Euro-Zone’s Manufacturing Sector Revised Higher To Hit A 17-Year High In November

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR marginally declined against the USD and closed at 1.1892 on Friday.

In economic news, the Euro-zone's final Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a level of 60.1 in November, up from an earlier estimate that indicated an advance to a level of 60.0 and notching its highest level since April 2000. The PMI had registered a level of 58.5 in the previous month.

Moreover, Germany's final Markit manufacturing PMI advanced to a level of 62.5 in November, confirming the preliminary print. The PMI had recorded a level of 60.6 in the previous month.

The greenback declined against its key counterparts on Friday, after news emerged that former US national security adviser, Michael Flynn, is ready to testify that the US President, Donald Trump directed him to contact Russian officials during the 2016 presidential campaign.

On the macro front, the US ISM manufacturing activity index dropped more-than-anticipated to a level of 58.2 in November, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 58.3. The index had registered a level of 58.7 in the prior month. Additionally, the nation's final Markit manufacturing PMI fell less than initially estimated to a level of 53.9 in November, following a reading of 54.6 in the prior month. The preliminary print had recorded a drop to a level of 53.8.

On the other hand, the nation's construction spending grew at its fastest pace in five months, after it climbed more-than-anticipated by 1.4% on a monthly basis in October, amid a surge in public construction outlays. Market participants had expected construction spending to advance 0.5%, compared to a gain of 0.3% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1871, with the EUR trading 0.18% lower against the USD from Friday's close, as the US Dollar gained ground after the US Senate approved a long-awaited tax overhaul over the weekend.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1835, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1798. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1924, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1976.

Going ahead, investors would look forward to the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence index for December, due to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US factory orders and final durable goods orders data, both for October, slated to release later in the day, will attract a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages

UK’s Manufacturing Sector Activity Hit Its Highest Level Since August 2013 In November

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.38% against the USD and closed at 1.3470 on Friday, shrugging off robust manufacturing sector data in the UK.

Data indicated that UK's Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly advanced to a more than four-year high level of 58.2 in November, confounding market consensus for a fall to a level of 56.5, thus suggesting that manufacturing sector would give a boost to the sluggish British economy in the last quarter of 2017. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a revised level of 56.6.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3472, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3427, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3383. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3529, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3587.

Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on Britain's Markit construction PMI for November slated to release in a few hours and a meeting between British Prime Minister, Theresa May, EU Chief Executive Jean-Claude Juncker and his Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Trading Lower In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.52% against the JPY and closed at 112.06 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 112.75, with the USD trading 0.62% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

Overnight data showed that Japan’s monetary base climbed 13.2% on an annual basis in November. In the previous month, monetary base had recorded a rise of 14.5%.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.81, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.86. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.30, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.84.

Looking forward, investors would focus on Japan’s Nikkei services PMI for November, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session

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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.78% against the CHF and closed at 0.9764 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9826, with the USD trading 0.63% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9750, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9675. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9886, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9947.

With no major macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic news.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canadian Unemployment Rate Fell To Its Lowest In Nearly A Decade In November

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 1.54% against the CAD and closed at 1.2698 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar gained ground against the USD on Friday, after the latest Canadian jobs data painted a bright picture of the nation's labour market.

Canada's unemployment rate declined more-than-expected to 5.9% in November, dropping to a nearly ten-year low level and boosting optimism over the health of the nation's labour market. In the prior month, the unemployment rate had recorded a rate of 6.3%, while investors had envisaged for a fall to 6.2%.

Moreover, the nation's annualised gross domestic product (GDP) sharply slowed to 1.7% in the three months to September, compared to a revised expansion of 4.3% in the prior quarter, as exports tumbled and businesses pulled back on investment. Meanwhile, market participants had anticipated the GDP to slow down to 1.6%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2715, with the USD trading 0.13% higher against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2635, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2556. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2843, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2972.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8793; (P) 0.8818; (R1) 0.8848; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as it's bounded in sideway trading between 0.8732/9032 last week. Outlook stays bearish with 0.9032 resistance intact. That is, fall from 0.9305 is expected to resume later. Break of 0.8732 will target 0.8303 key support level. Nonetheless, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

EUR/GBP 4 Hours Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1665; (P) 1.1690; (R1) 1.1731; More...

EUR/CHF rebounds strongly ahead of 1.1584 support. But it's staying well below 1.1736 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD and rising wedge like structure suggests that the cross is near to forming a top, if not formed. Hence, even in case of another rise, we'd expect limited upside potential. On the downside, sustained break of 1.1584 support will be a strong sign of trend reversal and should turn outlook bearish for 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1736 at 1.1313.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1195 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect another to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1195 is firmly taken out.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7559; (P) 0.7599; (R1) 0.7646; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7531 is still in progress. But still, as long as 0.7729 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. Break of 0.7531 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. Nonetheless, break of 0.7729 will indicate near term reversal, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound would be seen back to 0.7896 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8033). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2602; (P) 1.2752; (R1) 1.2828; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2916 is extending. While deeper pull back could be seen, we'd expect downside to be supported by 1.2598 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Break of 1.2916 will resume the rally from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2888). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We'll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart