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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3244; (P) 1.3315; (R1) 1.3410; More....

GBP/USD's rise from 1.3038 resumed after steep but brief pull back. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3651 to 1.3026 at 1.3412. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.3651 high. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.3412, followed by break of 1.3220 support, will indicate that price actions from 1.3026 is merely a correction. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.3026 low.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Nonetheless, subsequent fall was contained by 55 week EMA (now at 1.3069). Outlook is a bit mixed. For the moment, as long as 1.3835 support turned resistance holds, medium term rise from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern. That is, we'd expect another leg in the long term down trend through 1.1946 low. However, sustained break of 1.3835 should at least send GBP/USD to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9808; (P) 0.9830; (R1) 0.9860; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation above 0.9776 temporary low. As long as 0.9946 resistance holds, another fall is still expected. Below 0.9776 will extend the decline from 1.0037 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9656. We'll look for bottoming again below 0.9656 and above 0.9420. On the upside, break of 0.9946 resistance will indicate that the decline from 1.0037 has completed and bring retest of this resistance.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don't expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.05; (P) 111.34; (R1) 111.76; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 110.83 temporary low. As long as 112.71 resistance holds, fall from 114.73 is expected to continue. Below 110.83 will target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. For the moment, we're still favoring the case medium term corrective pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. Hence, we'll looking for bottoming below 110.14 to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 112.71 will suggest that the fall from 114.73 is completed and turn bias to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 107.31 support holds, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. And another rise is in favor. Break of 114.73 resistance will target a test on 118.65 high first. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7582; (P) 0.7601; (R1) 0.7613; More...

At this point, AUD/USD is still staying in the consolidative pattern from 0.7531 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7729 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 0.7531 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. However, considering bullish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7729 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7896 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8049). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2771; (P) 1.2797; (R1) 1.2842; More....

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as the consolidation pattern from 1.2916 is still in progress. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rebound. Above 1.2836 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2916 first. Further break of 1.2916 will resume whole rally from 1.2061 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2895). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We'll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8819; (P) 0.8900; (R1) 0.8954; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as it's still bounded in range of 0.8732/9032 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.9032 resistance intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor in the cross. Break of 0.8732 will resume the fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support level. However, on the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5543; (P) 1.5616; (R1) 1.5663; More....

Near term outlook in EUR/AUD will remain bullish as long as 1.5458 support holds. Medium term rise from 1.3624 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6551, which is close to 1.6587 key resistance. However, firm break of 1.5458 will now indicate near term topping and should bring pull back towards 55 day EMA (now at 1.5232).

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1630; (P) 1.1665; (R1) 1.1684; More...

Near term outlook in EUR/CHF stays bullish as long as 1.1584 support holds. Current medium term rise from 1.0629 would extend to 1.2 key level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 1.1584 will now indicate near term reversal and should bring pull back to 1.1355 support or below.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1355 support holds. However, break of 1.1355 will indicate medium term topping. In that case, EUR/CHF should head back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.1142) and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.63; (P) 132.09; (R1) 132.47; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral corrective pattern from 134.48 is still unfolding. As long as 134.48 key resistance holds, risk remains on the downside for deeper pull back. Break of 131.16 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 134.48 at 126.97, which is close to 127.55 support. We'll look for support from there to bring rebound on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

STOCKS

Dow (23836.71, +1.09%) has risen sharply finally trading above our target levels of 23800. Resistance is visible near current levels which if holds, may push the index back towards 23500; else a break above 23850 if seen could take it higher towards 24000, opening up further upside for the near to medium term. Note that although immediate resistance is visible on the candle charts, the 3-day line charts indicates an upside room towards 24000-24500 which would be our next target on a break above 23850/900 levels.

Dax (13059.53, +0.46%) is trading within the 13200-12900 region and this may continue for a few more sessions. The current sideways consolidation may be a temporary base building phase which could possibly lead to a sharp break above 13200 in the medium term. While above 12900, Dax remains bullish for the medium term.

Nikkei (22576.86, +0.40%) is stable as usual below 22760 and could trade in the 22760-22250 region for some time. A break on either side is necessary to have more clarity on further direction. For now Nikkei is likely to remain range-bound. Near term resistance near 112.00-111.65 if holds and pushes back Dollar Yen towards 111-110 in the medium term could possibly lead to a fall in Nikkei too. But for now that remains unclear.

Shanghai (3314.51, -0.57%) recovered a bit yesterday to close above 3320 but is again attempting lower levels today. Looking at the downside momentum, a fall towards 3300 and lower is more likely in the near term.

Nifty (10370.25, -0.28%) could be stable within 10450-10300 region for a few sessions. A corrective fall towards 10300-10200 is preferred while below 10500. Only on a break above 10500, we would focus on further upside.

Sensex (33618.59, -0.31%) however looks more bullish than Nifty just now. A break above 33750 could take it higher towards 34000 in the near term.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1295.60) has room on the upside and could rise towards 1320 in the near term while Silver (16.86) has broken below immediate support and could move down to 16.75-16.60 in the near term.

Brent (63.24) is trading at slightly lower levels today and could test 62.50-62.00 before again bouncing back. Overall long term looks bullish towards 65.

WTI (57.67) has immediate support at 57 and could possible see a bounce from there back to levels near 59-60. Failure to sustain above 57 would take it lower towards 56-55 before producing an upmove.

Copper (3.1080) could be moving lower on weak Chinese stocks but is trading at support levels just now. A rise from 3.10-3.08 is needed to take it higher again towards 3.15-3.20. Near to medium term looks bullish. Only on a break below 3.05, our lower target of 2.95 would come into picture.

FOREX

Dollar-Index (93.221) seems to have had a definitive bounce from support near 92.50-92.70 with three days of continuous rise in levels. The markets have thus shrugged off the possibility of further immediate dollar weakness and we could see the index trading between a range of 92.25 to 93.75 in the next two weeks. A more concrete view on whether Dollar will see a sustained phase of strength or weakness would depend on the index breaching resistance around 93.5 or support around 92.25-92.50 respectively in the next week or two.

Euro (1.1851) has seen a hold of the resistance at 1.19 on the weekly line charts and is now likely to move further down in the near term towards support near 1.1825 on the daily candles, a break of which could further pull it down to test support near 1.1775 on the weekly candle chart. However, it would be prudent to wait and watch if Euro goes below 1.1775 or rebounds above 1.19, before commenting on the sustainability of its weakness or strength.

Dollar-Yen (111.42) has also moved up with the weakening of dollar seeing a halt. As predicted in our briefing on Monday, this slight rebound of the Yen has created a new support for it on the daily candles at 111.25. It could well oscillate between resistance around 111.75-112.00 and support at 111.25 in the next few sessions, before a more concrete market view on dollar strength moves it above or below that range.

Pound (1.3368) contrary to our expectations has breached resistance on daily charts at around 1.335 and now seems to be poised for an upmove towards 1.34-1.3415 levels, from where there could be a slight corrective dip.

Dollar Rupee (64.4150) is likely to find support in the 64.40/30 region from where a bounce back to levels near 64.50/60 is possible. Some strength in the US Dollar could possible keep Rupee stable today with an intra-day high of 64.30.

INTEREST RATES

After moving up slightly to 0.72% the day before, the US 30-5 Yr Spread (0.69%) has dipped again a bit, but remains above the crucial channel Support which could push it up towards 0.75%, if not higher.

There has not been much movement in US Yields yesterday, but the chances of a rise remain valid while the 5Yr (2.07%), 10Yr (2.33%) and 30Yr (2.76%) remain above Supports seen near current levels.

In comparison, the German 2Yr (-0.71%) and 5Yr (0.34%) could be reasserting their overall downtrend. The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.99%) has also started dipping a bit and may try to test -2.03% over the next week or two.

The long-term trend Resistance on the Japan 10Yr (0.03%) has held, pushing the yield lower from levels of 0.039% and 0.036% seen earlier this week. If it falls further, it could end up weakening the Yen.

As we mentioned yesterday, it will be interesting to see if the US Q3 GDP will come in near/ higher/ lower than the market expectation of 3.30% tomorrow.

As expected, the Indian 10Yr GOI (7.03%) has come off a bit from just below 7.10% and may get into a sideways range of 6.90-7.10% for some days.