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The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

Inflation has picked up in recent months, as anticipated in the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting stronger economic activity and higher gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation have edged up, in line with a narrowing output gap and the diminishing effects of lower food prices. The Bank projects inflation will rise to 2 per cent in the second half of 2018. This is a little later than anticipated in July because of the recent strength in the Canadian dollar. The Bank is also mindful that global structural factors could be weighing on inflation in Canada and other advanced economies.

The global and Canadian economies are progressing as outlined in the July MPR. Economic activity continues to strengthen and broaden across countries. The Bank still expects global growth to average around 3 1/2 per cent over 2017-19. However, this outlook remains subject to substantial uncertainty about geopolitical developments and fiscal and trade policies, notably the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Canada's economic growth in the second quarter was stronger than expected, and was more broad-based across regions and sectors. Growth is expected to moderate to a more sustainable pace in the second half of 2017 and remain close to potential over the next two years, with real GDP expanding at 3.1 per cent in 2017, 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 1.5 per cent in 2019. Exports and business investment are both expected to continue to make a solid contribution to GDP growth. However, projected export growth is slightly slower than before, in part because of a stronger Canadian dollar than assumed in July. Housing and consumption are forecast to slow in light of policy changes affecting housing markets and higher interest rates. Because of high debt levels, household spending is likely more sensitive to interest rates than in the past.

The Bank estimates that the economy is operating close to its potential. However, wage and other data indicate that there is still slack in the labour market. This suggests that there could be room for more economic growth than the Bank is projecting without inflation rising materially above target.

Based on this outlook and the risks and uncertainties identified in today's MPR, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. While less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. In particular, the Bank will be guided by incoming data to assess the sensitivity of the economy to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 6, 2017. The next full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 17, 2018.

USD/CHF - 0.9912

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9795, Target: 0.9895, Stop: 0.9760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9840, Target: 0.9940, Stop: 0.9805

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s rally above resistance at 0.9882 confirms our view that recent rise from 0.9421 low is still in progress and bullishness remains for this move to extend further gain to 0.9940-50, then towards 0.9970, having said that, near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter well below psychological resistance at 1.0000, bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar again on pullback as said support at 0.9838 should limit downside and bring another rise. A firm break below 0.9830 would defer and risk test of support at 0.9796 but only break of latter level would signal top is formed instead, risk retracement of recent rise to 0.9775-80, however, support at 0.973037 should remain intact.

GBP/USD - 1.3254

Original strategy :

Sold at 1.3185, stopped at 1.3220

Position : - Short at 1.3185

Target :  -

Stop : - 1.3220

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite falling marginally to 1.3110, as cable found decent demand there and has rallied in London session, the subsequent breach of previous resistance at 1.3228 has shifted risk to the upside as this move signals the fall from 1.3338 has ended at 1.3088, hence further gain to resistance at 1.3287 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to provide confirmation, bring a stronger rebound towards 1.3338 resistance.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3228 (previous resistance turned support) cannot be ruled out, recon 1.3190-00 would limit downside and 1.3150 should hold, bring another rebound later. As near term outlook has turned mixed, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside for now.

EUR/USD - 1.1779

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite yesterday’s brief fall to 1.1725, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.1730 and the subsequent rebound 1.1793 suggest further consolidation would take place and recovery to 1.1800 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.1820-25 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.1858, bring further choppy trading later.

On the downside, below said support at 1.1725 would extend the fall from 1.1880 top to 1.1700 and possibly towards indicated previous support at 1.1669 but break of latter level is needed to retain bearishness and extend further subsequent decline to 1.1640-45 first. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

USD/JPY - 114.16

Original strategy  :

Buy at 113.40, Target: 114.40, Stop: 113.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 113.80, Target: 114.80, Stop: 113.45

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Dollar’s rally after finding renewed buying interest at 113.24 adds credence to our view that recent upmove from 107.32 has resumed and upside bias remains for further gain to 114.45-50 (50% projection of 111.65-114.10 measuring from 113.24), then towards 114.75-80 (61.8% projection), however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 115.00 would hold from here.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar again on pullback as 113.70-80 should hold, bring another rise. Below support at 113.54 would abort and suggest an intra-day top is formed, bring test of 113.24 support, however, break there is needed to provide confirmation, bring retracement of recent rise to 113.00 later. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1737; (P) 1.1764 (R1) 1.1787; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.1669 will resume the corrective fall from 1.2091 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. We'd expect strong support from there to complete the correction. On the upside, break of 1.1879 will revive the case that pull back from 1.2091 has already completed at 1.1669. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3086; (P) 1.3157; (R1) 1.3200; More....

GBP/USD rebounds strongly today but it's staying in range of 1.3026/3337. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.3026 will resume the decline from 1.3651 and target 1.2773 key support level. This will also revive the case of medium term reversal. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 1.3337 will resume the rebound from 1.3026 to 61.8% retracement of 1.3651 to 1.3026 at 1.3412 and above.

In the bigger picture, while the medium term rebound from 1.1946 was strong, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Outlook is turned a bit mixed and we'll stay neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2773 key support will argue that rebound from 1.1946 has completed. The corrective structure of rise from 1.1946 to 1.3651 will in turn suggest that long term down trend is now completed. Break of 1.1946 low should then be seen. On the upside, break of 1.3835 support turned resistance will revive the case of trend reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9861; (P) 0.9886; (R1) 0.9934; More....

USD/CHF reaches as high as 0.9939 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise from 0.9420 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0342 high. On the downside, below 0.9837 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9736 support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could develop into a medium term move and target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9587 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.42; (P) 113.72; (R1) 114.20; More...

USD/JPY's break of 114.09 indicates resumption of recent rally from 107.31. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 114.49 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65. On the downside, below 113.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 111.64 support holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completed. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.11; (P) 149.60; (R1) 150.06; More

GBP/JPY's rebound from 146.92 resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 151.38 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 152.82 high. Firm break there will confirm resumption of medium term rise from 122.36 and target 163.87 resistance next. On the downside, break of 149.11 minor support will turn bias to the downside and extend the correction from 152.82. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.