Sample Category Title

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.1% against the JPY and closed at 112.83.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.66, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Data released overnight showed that Japan's Nikkei services PMI registered a drop to a level of 51.0 in September, expanding at its weakest pace in eleven months, amid a slowdown in new orders. The PMI had registered a level of 51.6 in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.38, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.1. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.07, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.48.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.09% against the CHF and closed at 0.9734.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9722, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9692, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9663. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9769, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9817.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.19% against the CAD and closed at 1.2491.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2468, with the USD trading 0.18% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2438, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2407. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2519, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2569.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic news for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2501; (R1) 1.2522; More....

A temporary top is formed at 1.2537 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. With 1.2326 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Above 1.2537 will target 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break of 1.2777 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. However, break of 1.2326 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2061 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7800; (P) 0.7819; (R1) 0.7853; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment, with focus on 0.7807 key near term support. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 support will indicate near term reversal. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7674) first. Meanwhile, rebound from 0.7807 will retain bullishness. Above 0.7907 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. In case of further rally, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7807 is the first signal that such correction is focused. Break of 0.7328 will bring retest of 0.6826 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1738 (R1) 1.1780; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.1832 minor resistance intact, fall from 1.2091 is expected to extend through 1.1661 support. Decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we're expecting support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1832 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective fall is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3212; (P) 1.3249; (R1) 1.3277; More....

With 1.3454 minor resistance intact, GBP/USD's correction from 1.3651 could extend lower to 61.8% retracement of 1.2773 to 1.3651 at 1.3108. However, break of 1.3454 will indicate completion of the pull back. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.3651 high.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the long term trend in GBP/USD has reversed. That is, a key bottom was formed back in 1.1946 on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Current rise from 1.1946 will target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466 next. In any case, medium term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.2773 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.87; (R1) 113.15; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9714; (P) 0.9749; (R1) 0.9771; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it struggled to take out 0.9772 firmly. And outlook remains unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 key resistance will suggest that whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 0.9860/1.0099 resistance zone. However, break of 09669 minor support will suggest rejection from 09772 and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9587 support. Break will target retesting 0.9420 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend from 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

While major US indices extended their record run overnight, Dollar is lagging behind and is turning soft today. DOW closed up 0.37% at 22641.67, S&P 500 up 0.22% at 2534.58, NASDAQ up 0.23% at 6531.71. 10 year yield jumped to 2.361 but pared gain to close down -0.003 at 2.334. Technically, there are a few points to noted. USD/CHF struggled to stand above 0.9772 key near term resistance. USD/JPY also struggles to take out a medium term channel resistance. Meanwhile, AUD/USD also cannot sustain below 0.7807 key support. It's early to tell if Dollar is completing it's near term rebound, but risk is increasing.

It's reported that US President Donald Trumps' advisers have finalized a shortlist of candidate to lead Fed after Janet Yellen's term expires next year. While Yellen stays in the shortlist naturally, it's very doubtful if she's still be considered. Meanwhile, Trump's chief economic advisor Gary Cohn, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh are part of the shortlist. Yellen, Cohn, Powell and Warsh are believed to be interviewed by Trump last week already. Trump also indicated that he could make a decision in two or three weeks.

MEP voted to delay trade negotiations with UK

Members of the European Parliament voted to delay trade discussions with UK until there is a "major breakthrough" in the negotiation. The motion was backed by 557 MEPs, with 92 against and 29 abstained. While the vote was not binding, it did show the united stance among EU officials on the issue. And, some EU officials are clearly dissatisfied with the way UK is taking the negotiations. The Parliament's chief Brexit spokesman Guy Verhofstadt blamed the open splits among UK officials for the of progress. He pointed out that "there are differences between Hammond and Fox... and Johnson and May."

UK Brexit Secretary David Davis said that they're "ready for the alternative" should outcome of Brexit negotiation falls short of "the deal that Britain needs". And, "there is a determined exercise under way in Whitehall devoted to contingency arrangements so that we are ready for any outcome."

More than 15000 people protested in Barcelona yesterday, against the Spanish government's violence on the disputed Catalonia independence referendum. 50 roads were blocked while most schools and small businesses were closed. The official result of Sunday's referendum will presented to Catalonian parliament today or tomorrow. And a formal declaration of independence could be declared shortly after. European Parliament will discuss the situation today. Meanwhile, Spain's King Felipe VI criticized that Catalan leaders have broken the law of the stat and showed and "inadmissable lack of loyalty."

BoJ Nakaso: Could incur red ink during stimulus exit

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said that during the exit of monetary stimulus, the BoJ could incur "red ink". But he expressed his confidence that "short-term fluctuations in the BOJ's revenues won't disrupt our policy-making." And, the central bank could learn from Fed's experience on tapering of quantitative easing. Meanwhile, Nakaso also urged the government to take a "balanced" approach on fiscal policies and emphasized that "it's important to create a sustainable fiscal framework in Japan." This was seen as a response to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plan to delay the target of reaching primary budget surplus by a few years.

On the data front

UK BRC shop price dropped -0.1% yoy in September. UK services PMI will be a main focus in European session. Eurozone will release retial sales and services PMI final. From US, ADP employment and ISM services will be released.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9714; (P) 0.9749; (R1) 0.9771; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it struggled to take out 0.9772 firmly. And outlook remains unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 key resistance will suggest that whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 0.9860/1.0099 resistance zone. However, break of 09669 minor support will suggest rejection from 09772 and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9587 support. Break will target retesting 0.9420 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend from 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

Economic Indicators Update