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At the start of the current trading week, there was a sharp pullback in major currency pairs. GBP/USD climbed to 1.2580, EUR/USD tested 1.0400 as resistance, and USD/CAD temporarily dropped below 1.4200. However, dollar sellers failed to fully capitalise on this movement, and the pairs have so far been unable to maintain their recent levels.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD rally observed since mid-September paused following another test of the 1.4470 level. On the daily timeframe, a reversal pattern, the “double top,” was formed, and its partial completion concluded after the pair dropped to 1.4280. Currently, the pair is trading above 1.4350. With the right fundamental catalyst, the price could retest the 1.4470–1.4450 range. Conversely, if USD/CAD falls below the recent low of 1.4270, a further decline toward the 1.4200–1.4170 range may follow.

Key events that could influence USD/CAD dynamics today include:

16:30 (GMT+2): Average hourly earnings in the US
16:30: US non-farm payrolls
16:30: Canadian unemployment rate
16:30: Canadian employment change

EUR/USD

As expected, after updating last year’s low, EUR/USD managed to correct toward the 1.0430–1.0400 range. However, a more significant recovery failed to materialise, and the pair is currently testing the 1.0300 level as support. Depending on today’s employment data, the pair may either rise above 1.0430 or retest the recent low at 1.0230.

In addition to US employment data, the following events may affect EUR/USD pricing today:

11:00 (GMT+2): Spanish industrial production
16:00: Germany’s current account balance (non-seasonally adjusted)
18:00: US 5-year inflation expectations index from the University of Michigan

This version retains all critical information while using British English terms and improving fluency.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.47; (P) 194.64; (R1) 195.81; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Rise from 188.07 might have completed at 198.84 already. Deeper fall would be seen to 188.07 support. Firm break there will argue that corrective pattern from 180.00 has already completed. Nevertheless, above 198.94 will target 199.79 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.36; (P) 162.90; (R1) 163.42; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation below 164.89 and intraday bias remains neutral. Rise from 156.16, as a leg in the corrective pattern from 154.40, should continue as long as 160.89 support holds. On the upside, break of 164.89 will target 166.67, and above. However, firm break of 160.89 will turn bias back to the downside for 156.16 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8338; (P) 0.8372; (R1) 0.8404; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside for the moment, as rally from 0.8221 short term bottom is in progress for 0.8446 key resistance. Strong resistance might be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. But for now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.8327 resistance turned support holds, in case retreat. Decisive break of 0.8446 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in D MACD, decisive break of 0.8446 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Further rally should be seen towards 0.8624 key resistance, even as a correction to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Overall, however, medium term outlook will be neutral at best until decisive break of 0.8624 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621). Risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6591; (P) 1.6628; (R1) 1.6661; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook as range trading continues, and intraday bias stays neutral. Corrective pattern from 1.6800 could extend further. But strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to bring rebound. Near term risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.6800 resistance holds, in case of extended recovery. Firm break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9385; (P) 0.9394; (R1) 0.9405; More....

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Corrective rebound from 0.9204 could still extend higher through 0.9440. But upside should be limited by 0.9481 fibonacci resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9329 support will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.9204 might extend higher, strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 to limit upside. Down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in favor to resume through 0.9204/9 support zone at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4372; (P) 1.4388; (R1) 1.4411; More...

Intraday bias USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment, and consolidations from 1.466 could extend, probably with another fall. But downside should be contained above 38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4466 at 1.4066 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4466 will resume larger up trend to 1.4667/89 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress for retesting 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6172; (P) 0.6196; (R1) 0.6219; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point, and further decline is expected as long as 0.6301 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6169 key support will confirm larger down trend resumption. Nevertheless, break of 0.6301 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6394).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006, and could have completed at 0.6941 already. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6587) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.69; (P) 158.04; (R1) 158.51; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor with 156.01 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 156.01 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 154.13) instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9117; (R1) 0.9137; More…

USD/CHF is still bounded in range below 0.9136 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.9007 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.9136 will resume the rally from 0.8374 to 0.9223 key resistance next. However, firm break of 0.8956 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8896).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.8374 as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes. However, decisive break of 0.9223 will be an important sign of bullish trend reversal.