Sample Category Title

GOLD (in USD) Bearish pause.

Gold's weakness is definitely on since the metal reached resistance given at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Expected to reach support at 1177 (11/01/2017 low). For the time being, the metal is pausing around $1200.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD) Consolidating.

Silver's selling pressures are important. Hourly support is given at 16.63 (27/01/2016 low). Expected to see continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude Oil (in USD) Selling pressures diminish around $48.

Crude oil's bearish pressures continues. The commodity has been unable to mount a serious challenge to 55.24 (03/01/2017 high) resistance. Strong support given at 49.61 (08/12/2016) has been broken. Expected to see deeper selling pressures.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/CHF Continued bearish pressures.

EUR/CHF's renewed bearish pressures continues to increase. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Temporary surges seem the new normal for the CHF.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Continued increase.

EUR/JPY's demand has rejuvenated. Hourly resistance at 121.34 (10/02/2017 high) has been broken. Strong resistance is given at a distance at 123.31 (27/01/2017 high). Expected to show further increase.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Weakening.

EUR/GBP is pushing lower. Selling pressures increase around 0.8800. Key resistance is given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high). The road is wideopen for further weakness as there is no close support.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CHF Approaching uptrend channel.

USD/CHF is still riding within uptrend channel and is on its way to monitor support implied by lower bound of the uptrend channel. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Hourly support is given at 1.0075 (13/03/2017 low). Expected to consolidate.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Sideways price action.

USD/CAD's bullish pressures are definitely on after breaking key resistance at 1.3353 (20/01/2017 high). Yet, as long as this resistance was not broken (20/01/2017 high), bullishness was limited. Expected to see further upside potential for the pair.

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Short-term demand is fading.

AUD/USD's technical structure is still negative. The road is wide-open for further weakness towards support given at 0.7494 (19/01/2017 low). Key resistance is given at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high) while hourly resistance is given at 0.7592 (13/03/2017 high).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Ready to increase.

EUR/USD continues to strengthen despite ongoing bearish consolidation. Hourly resistance given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) has been broken while hourly support at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper increase towards resistance at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high).

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Continued weakness.

GBP/USD continues to edge lower despite ongoing consolidation since the pair has broken support given at 1.2254 (19/01/2017 low). The road is wide-open for further decline. Hourly resistance is now given at 1.2300 (05/03/2017 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Pausing below resistance at 115.62.

USD/JPY is pushing higher towards key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 113.56 (06/03/2017 low). Expected to push higher.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF - 1.0092

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback retreated after meeting resistance at 1.0109 and mild downside bias is seen for test of 1.0060 support, however, break there is needed to signal the fall from 1.0171 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.0035-40 but support at 1.0009 should remain intact, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

On the upside, above said resistance at 1.0109 would bring rebound to 1.0120 but break of resistance at 1.0142 is needed to signal low is formed and suggest the fall from 1.0171 has ended, bring another rise towards this level later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

GBP/USD - 1.2182

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2155, Target: 1.2255, Stop: 12120

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2140, Target: 1.2250, Stop: 1.2105

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable resumed recent decline and extend weakness to 1.2109 yesterday, the subsequent rebound suggests low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.2260-65, above there would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2290-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2109), however, resistance at 1.2301 should limit upside and price should falter below 1.2335-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring another decline later.

In  view of this, we are looking to buy cable on dips as 1.2135-40 should limit downside. Only below said support at 1.2109 would extend recent decline to 1.2090, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2070 and reckon 1.2040-50 would hold from here, sterling may stage another rebound from there later.

EUR/USD - 1.0620

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the single currency slipped to as low as 1.0600, as euro found good support there and has rebounded again, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and gain to 1.0660-65 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal low is formed, bring further gain to 1.0680-85 but price should falter below this week’s high at 1.0714.

On the downside, below said support at 1.0600 would signal top has been formed at 1.0714 and downside risk remains for the fall from there to bring retracement of recent rise to 1.0570-75, then 1.0550 but reckon downside would be limited and support at 1.0525 should remain intact. As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

The Greenback was under pressure during early trading on Wednesday as bears exploited the pre-FOMC jitters and anxiety to attack prices lower. Although sellers may be commended on their ability to trigger a sharp technical correction ahead of the FOMC meeting, the downside risks may be limited especially after Tuesday's impressive inflation data reinforced expectations of a probable rate hike in March. Much attention will be directed towards both the FOMC statement and economic projections this evening which may offer investors some insight on the pace of hikes this year. An upwards shift in the updated 'dot plot' could heighten speculations of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates at least four times in 2017. The Dollar should remain buoyed with confidence consistently rising over the health of the US economy and prospects growing over higher US interest rates this year.

From a technical standpoint, although the Dollar Index is slightly pressured on the daily charts, a decisive breakout above 101.50 could open a path back towards 102.00.

Sterling could turn chaotic

Investors should be prepared for a chaotic rollercoaster ride when dealing with Sterling as the Brexit developments, political risk and overall uncertainty sparks explosive levels of volatility. It was only on Monday investors were speculating that Article 50 will be triggered as soon as Tuesday before markets confirmed that Theresa May will start the Brexit negotiations at the end of the month. Recent reports released during early trading on Wednesday suggesting that the European Union could force the UK to wait until June to start the Brexit talks has compounded to the confusion which may translate to more pain for Sterling in the longer term. With the ongoing Brexit woes effectively strengthening the relationship between uncertainty and Sterling, further downside losses should be expected.

Concerns remain elevated over Brexit having negative impacts to the UK economy with the recent mixed jobs reports providing permission for bears to send the GBPUSD lower. Although the unemployment rate in the UK has declined to its lowest since 1975; the decline in average earnings that may rekindle concerns over the sustainability of UK's consumer fuelled economic growth could weigh heavily on sentiment. The Brexit anxieties have gripped the Pound and the frighteningly low buying sentiment may cap major upside gains moving forward.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is heavily pressured on the daily charts. Price weakness below 1.2150 could encourage a decline towards 1.2000.

Commodity spotlight – WTI

WTI Crude descended deeper into the abyss on Tuesday after reports of a surprise output jump from Saudi Arabia revived concerns of the excessive oversupply in the global markets. There was already a small seed of doubt over the compliance side of the production cut agreement with this release providing the permission for bears to attack oil prices. It is becoming clear that the optimism over the OPEC production cut is rapidly diminishing with fears of the cartel not renewing the deal for the second half of the year already translating to renewed selling pressures. Oil market weakness has become a key theme this quarter and bears may install fresh rounds of selling if U.S crude inventories continue to rise incessantly. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude is heavily bearish on the daily charts. Previous light support around $49 may transform into a temporary resistance which may open a path back down towards $47.

USD/JPY - 114.69

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback met renewed selling interest at 115.20 yesterday and slipped again, retaining our view that further consolidation below last week’s high at 115.51 is in store and risk of another fall to 114.48 support cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 114.26 support and as this move is viewed as retracement of recent upmove, reckon downside would be limited to 114.00-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-115.51) and price should stay well above strong support at 113.56-61), bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. A firm break above 115.20 would suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound but still reckon said resistance at 115.51 would cap upside. Only break there would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to previous resistance at 115.62, then towards 115.90-00. 

EUR/USD remains under pressure, as the pair has dropped closed to the 1.06 line. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0630. On the release front, Eurozone Employment Change edged up to 0.3%, above the forecast of 0.2%. In the US, it's a busy day. Retail sales and CPI indicators are expected to soften in February. Today's highlight is the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to raise the benchmark rate a quarter-point, from 0.50% to 0.75%. On Thursday, the eurozone releases Final CPI, while the US publishes a host of key indicators, led by unemployment claims.

German numbers were a mixed bag on Tuesday. There was further indication that inflation continues to improve, as Final CPI rebounded with a gain of 0.6%, compared to a 0.6% decline a month earlier. The well-respected ZEW Economic Sentiment report improved to 1.28, although the markets had expected a stronger reading. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment climbed to 25.6, its strongest gain since December 2015.

The eurozone continues to post improved inflation and growth data, and this has led to calls in some quarters for the ECB to tighten monetary policy. The ECB has kept the benchmark rate at a flat 0.0%, and its asset-purchase program does not expire until December. Will ECB President Mario Daraghi taper the monthly purchases or at least signal such an intent? Draghi is doing his best to perform a complicated balancing act. A stronger economy would favor tighter policy, but he does not want ECB to become entangled in heated political contests in Europe. Dutch voters are having their say on Wednesday, while France holds elections in April, followed by Germany in September.

With the markets expecting a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, will the currency markets react to a Fed move? Although a rate hike has been priced in by the markets at 93%, there have been disappointments in the past, so a rate move could boost the dollar at the expense of gold. Strong US employment numbers in February have reinforced market speculation that the Fed will raise rates for the first time this year. Nonfarm payrolls sparkled in February, as the indicator jumped to 235 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 196 thousand. Wage growth climbed 2.6% compared to February 2016, while the participation rate edged up to 63.0%, up from 62.9%. These solid job numbers have also provided President Trump with a much-needed boost. Trump is under pressure to present an economic agenda, but the markets won't mind giving him some additional breathing room, with the economy performing so well.