Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.53; (P) 161.35; (R1) 161.83; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue below 163.86. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 175.41. On the downside, however, firm break of 159.80 support will suggest that the rebound from 154.40 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 154.40 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Current development suggests that the first leg has completed. The range of consolidation should be seen between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.12; (P) 191.02; (R1) 191.79; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 191.99 is still extending. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 208.09. On the downside, however, firm break of 187.84 support will argue that rebound from 180.00 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 180.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Current development suggests that the first leg has completed and the range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1160; (P) 1.1175; (R1) 1.1200; More....

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1200 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Downside of retreat should be contained above 1.0007 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 1.1200 will resume recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232, and then 1.1274 high.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.1138 resistance indicates that corrective pattern from 1.1274 has completed at 1.0665 already. Decisive break of 1.1274 (2023 high) will confirm whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0665 at 1.1740. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0947 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3205; (P) 1.3236; (R1) 1.3291; More...

GBP/USD's rally is still in progress despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Intraday bias stays on the upside for Current up trend should target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3409. On the downside, below 1.3179 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 38.2% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.3364. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2664 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8388; (P) 0.8437; (R1) 0.8464; More…..

USD/CHF's break of 0.8431 support indicates resumption of whole decline from 0.9223. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9049 to 0.8431 from 0.8747 at 0.8365, and then 0.8332 low. On the upside, above 0.8484 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8747 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.52; (P) 144.35; (R1) 144.78; More...

Despite weak downside momentum as seen in 4H MACD, further decline is still expected in USD/JPY with 146.47 resistance intact. Fall from 149.35 should target 141.67 low. Firm break there will resume the whole fall from 161.94 to 140.25 support next. On the upside, above 146.47 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 149.35 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.38) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3425; (P) 1.3462; (R1) 1.3480; More...

USD/CAD's decline from 1.3946 is still in progress today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.3176 support next. On the upside, above 1.3514 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.3588 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6771; (P) 0.6784; (R1) 0.6805; More...

AUD/USD edges higher as rise from 0.6348 continues today. Intraday bias stays on the upside despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Next target is 0.6870. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6348 at 0.6949. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6696 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.

Australian Dollar rose broadly in the Asian session following the release of stronger-than-expected inflation data. The slight slowdown in inflation wasn't as pronounced as markets had anticipated, reinforcing RBA's stance that it is not yet ready to cut interest rates. While the data does reduce the urgency for another rate hike, it still supports the view that RBA will maintain its current policy stance for the foreseeable future.

RBA's attention now turns to the upcoming Q2 GDP data, scheduled for release on September 4. This data will provide crucial insights ahead of its next meeting on September 23-24. However, with inflationary pressures remaining elevated, RBA is expected to hold rates steady. The real test will come with Q3 inflation data, due on October 30, which will play a significant role in RBA's full policy review at its November 4-5 meeting.

On the global stage, Swiss Franc continues to be the strongest performer of the week so far, underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Canadian Dollar follows closely, driven by a rally in oil prices, which is also linked to the geopolitical situation. Sterling is currently the third strongest currency.

In contrast, Euro is facing significant pressure, making it the weakest currency this week at this point. This week's business and consumer sentiment data from Germany have exacerbated concerns about a recession in the Eurozone's largest economy. Yen is also underperforming, weakened by the rebound in benchmark yields in the US and Europe. US Dollar is struggling to regain its footing after last week's Jackson Hole Symposium, making it the third weakest currency.

In the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum had a sharp sell-off during the Asian session, attributed to reported massive long liquidations. Technically, the strong break of 2531.80 supported should confirm that corrective rebound from 2084.51 has completed at 2819.10 already, after rejection by 2797.60 support turned resistance. Down trend from 3973.10 also remains intact with the rebound capped well below falling 55 D EMA. Retest of 2084.51 low should be seen next. The question is whether there is strong enough selling to push Ethereum to 61.8% projection of 3561.65 to 2084.51 from 2819.10 at 1906.22.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.23%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.88%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.11%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.41%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0101 at 0.890. Overnight, DOW rose 0.02%. S&P 500 rose 0.16%. NASDAQ rose 0.16%. 10-year yield rose 0.015 to 3.833.

Australia's monthly CPI slows to 3.5% in Jul, slightly above expectations

Australia's monthly CPI inflation slowed from 3.8% yoy in June to 3.5% yoy in July, above the expected 3.4% yoy. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel also eased, dropping from 4.0% yoy to 3.7% yoy. Additionally, the annual trimmed mean CPI, a measure that smooths out irregular price fluctuations, decreased from 4.1% yoy to 3.8% yoy.

The most significant contributors to the price increases were housing (+4.0%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.8%), alcohol and tobacco (+7.2%), and transport (+3.4%). These sectors continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, despite the overall slowing trend.

BoJ's Himino signals readiness for further rate hikes if economic confidence grows

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to adjusting its monetary policy if confidence in the economic outlook strengthens. In a speech, Himino stated that if BoJ gains "growing confidence" in its economic and price forecasts, it "will adjust the degree of monetary accommodation," signaling readiness for rate hikes ahead.

Himino outlined the baseline scenario for fiscal 2025 and 2026, describing it as a "reasonably balanced state" where inflation aligns with the price stability target, and economic growth "slightly above cruising speed". However, he cautioned against two risk scenarios: one where inflation remains above 2% and another where it falls well below 2% and fails to recover.

Addressing recent financial market volatility, Himino noted that Yen's appreciation might ease the import cost pressures faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, though it could reduce yen-denominated profits for export industries. He reassured that Japanese firms have developed competitive strengths. Stock price volatilities, while influential, should not significantly undermine business sentiment.

Looking ahead

Swiss UBS economic expectations and Eurozone M3 money supply will be released in European session. US will release weekly crude oil inventories.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6771; (P) 0.6784; (R1) 0.6805; More...

AUD/USD edges higher as rise from 0.6348 continues today. Intraday bias stays on the upside despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Next target is 0.6870. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6348 at 0.6949. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6696 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

Key Highlights

• NZD/USD rallied above the 0.6050 and 0.6120 resistance levels.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 0.6120 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold started a consolidation phase and might climb above $2,525.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD remained supported and might eye more upsides.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar started a strong increase above the 0.6000 level against the US Dollar. NZD/USD broke the 0.6100 barrier to move into a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 0.6120 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). It even surpassed the 0.6200 level and tested 0.6235.

The pair is now consolidating gains below 0.6250. Immediate support is near the 0.6195 level or the 38.2% Fib retracement of the upward move from the 0.6127 swing low to the 0.6236 high.

The next key support sits near the 0.6180 level. The main support is now forming near 0.6120. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6120 on the same chart. A downside break below the 0.6120 level could set the pace for a larger decline.

The next major support is near the 0.6060 level or the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6000 support level.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 0.6235 level. The first key resistance sits near the 0.6250 level. A clear move above the 0.6250 level could set the pace for a move toward the 0.6320 level.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair rallied above the 1.1150 level and now seems to be consolidating gains for more upsides.

Economic Releases

• Eurogroup Meeting.