Sample Category Title

• S&P 500 reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 5400.00

S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the support zone located between the key support level 51900.00 (former low of wave 2 from May), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from April.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

Given the predominant daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 5400.00 (former support from the end of July).

EUR/USD retreated after initial rise to 1.1007 last week and turned into consolidations. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.1007 first. Further break there will resume rally from 1.0665 to 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1056 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that's still be in progress. Break of 1.1138 resistance will be the first signal that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 (2023 high). However, break of 1.0776 support will extend the correction with another falling leg back towards 1.0447 support.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1008) will raise the chance of long term reversal. But even in this case, firm break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Rejection by 55 M EMA will maintain bearishness for extend the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) through 0.9534 at a later stage.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 141.67 last week. While further rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 holds. Below 144.04 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 141.67. Break there will resume the fall from 161.94 to 140.25 support next. Nevertheless, decisive break of 149.41 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 154.19, even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.86) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 132.81).

GBP/USD's decline from 1.3043 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 1.2664. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target this support next. However, break of 1.2839 resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.3043 has completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.3141 is extending with fall from 1.3043 as another leg. Break of 1.2612 support would strengthen this case. But still, downside should be contained by 1.2036/2298 support zone even in case of deep decline. Rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) remains in favor to resume at a later stage.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. But still, firm break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed to indicate bullish trend reversal. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 are tentatively seen as a consolidation pattern only.

USD/CHF rebounded after initial fall to 0.8431 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 holds. On the downside, below 0.8559 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first. Break there will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 0.8332 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8734 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.8920, even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.6348 last week. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6614) will target 0.6798 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6506 minor support will indicate rejection by the 55 D EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6348 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. Meanwhile, break of 0.6798 will target upper side of the range at 0.7156.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

USD/CAD spiked higher to 1.3946 last week but reversed from there. Yet, downside is contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3717) so far. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.3790 minor resistance, will retain near term bullishness. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3946 high. However, sustained trading below 1.3717 will dampen the original bullish view and bring deeper decline back towards 1.3588 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern, that might have completed at 1.3176 (2023 low) already. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149. This will be the favored case as long as 1.3588 support holds, in case of pullback.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY rebounded after initial dive to 180.00 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 holds. On the downside, below 184.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 180.00 low. Break there will resume the fall from 208.90 to 178.32 support next. However, firm break of 190.73 will extend the rebound to 61.8% retracement at 197.35, even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, fall from 208.09 medium term top is seen as correcting the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper decline is in favor as long as 55 W EMA (now at 189.23) holds. But strong support could emerge between 178.32 and 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for the medium term corrective pattern is already set.

In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it's at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 169.23).

EUR/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 154.40 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 holds. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40 first. Break there will resume the fall from 175.41 to 153.15 support next. However, sustained break of 162.42 will bring strong rise to 61.8% retracement at 167.38, even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, fall from 175.41 medium term top should be correcting the whole rise from 114.42 (2020 low). Deeper decline could be seen as long as 55 W EMA (now at 161.92) holds. But strong support should emerge between 153.15 and 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that the range of the medium term corrective pattern has already been set.

In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.46).