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• USDCHF finds strong obstacle at 200-day SMA
• MACD endorses negative momentum; RSI near oversold region

USDCHF plunged to a new more than two-month low of 0.8879 today but has found support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the 0.8895 area. 

 The pair is currently in a bearish retracement with the 20- and the 50-day SMAs posting a negative crossover.

According to the technical oscillators, the MACD is extending its negative momentum beneath its trigger and zero lines, while the RSI is moving horizontally near the 30 level.

In case of steeper negative actions, the market may retest the 0.8740 support, while even lower the 0.8455 barricade is waiting to endorse the bearish outlook.

On the other hand, a successful rebound off 0.8895 could drive the market towards the 0.9000 psychological level. Above this restrictive level, the 20- and the 50-day SMAs around 0.9050 and 0.9075 respectively may attract traders’ attention.

All in all, USDCHF is creating a negative move in the short-term view and a slip beneath the flat 200-day SMA could open the way for more decreases.   

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated today that the decision to cut interest rates yesterday was "logical" given the tendency for inflation to decrease. However, he emphasized that inflation remains "stubborn," particularly in the services sector.

Nagel highlighted that negotiated wages are expected to rise sharply this year and continue strong growth thereafter. He noted, "We on the ECB Governing Council are not driving on autopilot when it comes to interest rate cuts."

Council member Olli Rehn stated that inflation will continue to decline and interest rate cuts will support economic recovery. Rehn suggested that the possible scale of interest rate cuts over the next few years could range from 1 to 2 percentage points, assuming no new economic shocks occur.

Council member Gediminas Šimkus indicated that more than one rate cut might be necessary this year. He acknowledged that while data shows clear signs of disinflation, the path ahead will be challenging. Vice President Luis de Guindos added that inflation is expected to be around 2% next year but also noted "huge uncertainty in the economy."

• USDCAD constrained within a range as US & Canadian jobs data awaited at 12:30 GMT
• Bulls need a rally above 1.3775; bears could take control below 1.3578

USDCAD has been swinging sideways over the past two weeks between 1.3740 and 1.3600, unable to reverse the short-term downtrend from April’s peak of 1.3844.

The technical signals are currently uncertain, lacking a clear indication as the RSI continues to hover near its neutral mark of 50 and the stochastic oscillator maintains a flat trajectory.

Perhaps a close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3668 could help the price climb towards the upper band of the range at 1.3740 and probably touch the key resistance line at 1.3775. Note that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December 2023 downleg is within this neighborhood. Further up, the pair could confront the top of 1.3844 and aim for the 1.3900 psychological mark, a break of which would open the door for the 2022 peak of 1.3976.

In the event that downside pressures resurface, initial support could develop around the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3622. A move lower and beneath 1.3600 could immediately stall near the 200-day SMA and the crucial support trendline at 1.3578. If the bears claim the latter too, the decline could stretch towards the falling line at 1.3525. Additional losses from there could aggressively squeeze the price towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.3450.

To sum up, the short-term outlook for USDCAD remains neutral. The market could be influenced if it moves sustainably above 1.3775 or below 1.3578.

Gold price started a fresh increase above $2,350. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $78.40 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,315 zone against the US Dollar.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at $2,368 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $74.30 support.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $73.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,315 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $2,340.

The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,350 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded as high as $2,385. The price is now consolidating gains near the $2,385 zone and the RSI is above 70.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,315 swing low to the $2,38 high at $2,368. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $2,368.

The first major support is near the $2,350 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,315 swing low to the $2,38 high. If there is a downside break below the $2,350 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,342 support. Immediate resistance is near the $2,385 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,392 level. An upside break above the $2,392 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,420 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price found support near the $72.40 zone against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $73.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The bulls were able to push the price toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78.42 swing high to the $72.42 swing low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $73.50.

The hourly RSI is near the 65 level, but the price is struggling near $75.50. The next resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78.42 swing high to the $72.42 swing low at $76.15.

A clear move above the $76.15 could send the price toward the $77.50 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78.40 level. Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from the $75.50 resistance.

Immediate support sits near the $74.30 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $72.40. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $72.40. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $71.20 support zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.63; (P) 199.28; (R1) 199.73; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Current development suggests that rise from 191.34 has completed at 200.72 after rejection by 200.53. On the downside, break of 197.18 will resume the fall to 155.02. Further break of 195.02 will target 191.34 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 188.63 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend is expected to continue. Sustained trading above 200.53 will pave the way to 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.03; (P) 169.66; (R1) 170.09; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Current development suggests that rebound from 164.31 has completed at 170.81. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 170.87 resistance holds. Below 168.01 will target 167.31 support first. Break there will target 164.01 support next.

In the bigger picture, a medium top was formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). But as long as 55 W EMA (now at 166.81) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. That is, larger up trend remains in favor to continue. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8500; (P) 0.8512; (R1) 0.8526; More….

Sideway trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8546) holds. Decisive break of 0.8491/7 will resume larger down trend to 0.8376 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9643 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6288; (P) 1.6346; (R1) 1.6394; More….

Sideway trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 1.6211 support will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the correction from 1.7062. On the upside, above 1.6403 will resume the rebound from 1.6211 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9672; (P) 0.9697; (R1) 0.9709; More….

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.9740 minor resistance will argue that pull back from 0.9928 has completed after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9670. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.9670 will bring deeper fall to 0.9563 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even just as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0867; (P) 1.0884; (R1) 1.0907; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0788 support holds. Break of 1.0915 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. However, firm break of 1.0788 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0788 support will extend the corrective pattern instead.