Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8494; (P) 0.8507; (R1) 0.8517; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8559) holds. Decisive break of 0.8491/7 will resume larger down trend to 0.8376 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6284; (P) 1.6333; (R1) 1.6369; More...

Break of 1.6322 minor support argues that rebound from 1.6211 has completed at 1.6403 after rejection by 55 D EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.6211 first. Firm break there will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the correction from 1.7062. On the upside, above 1.6403 will resume the rebound from 1.6211 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9915; (P) 0.9922; (R1) 0.9930; More....

EUR/CHF's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 0.9252 should target 100% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural resistance. On the downside, below 0.9880 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9728 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even just as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

Yesterday was a slow Monday. The US and the UK markets were closed, the news flow was light and the trading volumes were thin.

The barrel of US crude trades a touch below its 100-DMA. The tense geopolitical setup is supportive of further gains along with the rising US demand into summer and OPEC’s restrictive tone regarding its outlook. China is also spending big to prop up its sputtering property market – a thing that brings further support to oil and commodity prices. Sentiment in oil is tilted to the upside, but there is one major risk to rebound above the $80pb level: a potentially waning reflation trade. If the central banks temper their rate cut plans into summer, demand outlook for oil could get hammered and the latter could limit recovery.

Back to back ECB cuts?

European Central Bank’s (ECB) Francois Villeroy de Galau said yesterday that the ECB could lower interest rates both in June and the July meetings – a comment that doesn’t match the ECB’s official communication that keeps its options open beyond the June meeting. And I prefer keeping the latter as the base-case scenario, because if inflation in Europe picks up momentum, the ECB can’t afford back-to-back rate cuts. Inflation updates from Eurozone countries will flow in throughout this week, the aggregate number is due Friday morning. That gives time to the ECB doves time to dream on Mr. Villeroy’s early-week comments and should – in theory – limit the topside potential in the euro.

But the EURUSD is pushing higher at the start of this week, on the back of a broad-based weakness in the US dollar. The dollar index is preparing to test the 200-DMA support against hawkish odds. There is too much optimism that Friday’s PCE print will bring relief. So much in fact that even a softer-than-expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) core inflation this morning didn’t send the USDJPY higher. So if that’s the case, if the US PCE index hints at softer inflationary pressures at Friday’s release, we could see the dollar index sink below the major 38.2% Fibonacci level and into the medium-term bearish consolidation zone. That would allow the EURUSD to extend gains above the 1.09 resistance but a dovish shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations would also boost the dovish ECB expectations, and the latter would limit the EURUSD’s upside potential. In summary, I don’t see the EURUSD spike above the 1.10 level when the ECB is sitting on the front seat of the monetary policy easing bus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0856; (R1) 1.0871; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0894 could extend further. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance next. However, break of 1.0804 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0752 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2761; (R1) 1.2788; More...

GBP/USD's rally from 1.2298 resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen to 1.2892 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2670 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg which might have completed already. Break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351(2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.3141. Meanwhile, break of 1.2445 support will extend the corrective pattern with another decline instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9141; (R1) 0.9151; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Current development suggests that pull back from 0.9223 has completed already. Above 0.9157 will bring retest of 0.9223. However, break of 0.9077 support will bring retest of 0.8987. Break there will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.70; (P) 156.87; (R1) 157.06; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 157.78 will resume the rally from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, to 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 153.59. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3611; (P) 1.3642; (R1) 1.3666; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is mildly on the downside as fall from 1.3742 extends. Rise from 1.3176 could have completed at 1.3845. Firm break of 1.3589 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.3176 to 1.3845 at 1.3432. On the upside, above 1.3670 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6631; (P) 0.6645; (R1) 0.6669; More...

AUD/USD's recovery from 0.6591 extends higher today, but stays below 0.6713 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579 intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.