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Copper's up trend resumed last week and accelerated significantly higher. The move was primarily driven by imposition of new trade sanctions by the UK and US, targeting Russian exports of key metals including aluminium, copper, and nickel to major commodity exchanges like LME and CME. This policy move, aimed at penalizing Russia for its actions in Ukraine, has effectively curtailed supplies of these metals, exerting upward pressure on prices.

The underlying fundamentals of Copper have also been robust, shaped by a combination of supply-side challenges and a upturn in the global economy. Notably, rebound in China's industrial activity has played a crucial role in bolstering market momentum. Additionally, disruptions at significant mining operations have tightened the supply further, adding to Copper's momentum.

From a speculative standpoint, the enthusiasm in the copper market is also palpable. According to recent LME data, hedge funds have increased their net long positions in Copper to the highest levels since February 2021. This influx of financial investments into copper futures suggests that prices may now be exceeding the actual market fundamentals, indicating a speculative bubble in formation.

Technically, the strong break of 4.3556 resistance confirmed resumption of whole rise from 3.1314 (2022 low). Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 4.2645 support holds. Next target is 261.8% projection of 3.5021 to 3.9346 from 3.6324 at 4.7647.

This level is close to 100% projection of 3.1314 to 4.3556 from 3.5021 at 4.7263, as well as long term channel resistance. The cluster resistance zone at around 4.7 would be crucial to decide whether Copper is already in a secular bull markets that's ready to power through 5.000 psychological level.

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, in a discussion with Les Echos, stressed that increase in oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East would not trigger a "mechanical" policy shift. Instead, the bank would carefully assess whether these increases significantly fuel core inflation and inflation expectations before deciding on any action.

Villeroy made it clear that ECB is prepared to act without undue delay in lowering interest rates. "No — unless there is a surprise, we must not wait too much," he said.

"From the point we have sufficient confidence in the fact that we will meet the 2% inflation objective by next year, our duty is to minimize the cost in terms of activity and employment," Villeroy said. "That is the sense of a first cut in June."

In an interview with SRF, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan stressed the critical issues of sluggish growth and the need for structural reforms. He underscored the importance of enhancing productivity to bolster economic growth across nations. Additionally, e highlighted the troubling high levels of debt and substantial deficits many countries are grappling with, which he deemed unsustainable in the long run.

Jordan emphasized that correcting these fiscal imbalances is imperative for future economic stability. He warned against the misuse of monetary policy as a tool for financing state debts, asserting that such practices could lead to dire consequences.

"It is very important that at the same time monetary policy remains geared towards price stability, rather than monetary policy being needed to finance debt, otherwise it will not end well," Jordan cautioned.

• GBPUSD broke key support level 1.2535
• Likely to fall to support level 1.2335

GBPUSD currency pair continues to fall strongly after breaking the key support level 1.2535, which has been steadily reversing the price from December.

The breakout of the support level 1.2535 coincided with true breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward ABC correction (B) from last October .

Given the strong bearish sterling sentiment seen across the FX markets today, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2335, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.

EUR/USD: A Pause After the Rally

Last week, 60% of analysts adopted a neutral stance in their previous forecast and were proven absolutely correct. EUR/USD had a calm week, even boring at times, moving along the 1.0650 mark within the narrow corridor of 1.0600-1.0690. Market participants were recuperating from the rally of the preceding days, with dollar bulls counting profits and bears licking their wounds. The American currency reached five-month highs against the euro, British pound, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, while USD/JPY once again set a 34-year price record, and the DXY index climbed to 106.42.

The macroeconomic data from the U.S., unmistakably inflationary in nature, started making an impact on March 8 with the employment report. NonFarm Payrolls exceeded expectations at 275K, compared to the previous 229K and the forecast of 198K, propelling the dollar upwards. Another boost came on April 10 with fresh U.S. inflation data showing a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 3.5%, the highest in six months, which quashed any expectations of a rate cut in June, sending the Dollar Index soaring.

Last week's macroeconomic figures only reinforced the image of a robust U.S. economy with a tight labour market. The number of unemployment benefit claims stayed at a relatively low level of 212K, and the manufacturing activity indicator hit its highest mark in two years. Retail sales data released on April 15 almost doubled the forecast at 0.4%, actually coming in at 0.7% month-on-month, following a 0.9% increase in February, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. These figures indicate that both manufacturers and consumers have well adapted to the high interest rates. Employment and income levels are sufficiently high, increasing the likelihood of price rises.

In this context, there is no reason for the Fed to start a cycle of monetary easing in June, especially since inflation is still far from the 2.0% target. Market participants are now expecting the first rate cut by 25 basis points in September, with another similar cut by the end of the year. These forecasts were confirmed by John Williams, the head of the New York Federal Reserve, who noted that the latest inflation data were disappointing and that there was no urgent need to cut interest rates. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, while stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are on the decline.

Attempts by EUR/USD bulls to initiate a rebound were halted on April 18 at the 1.0690 level after Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Vice-President of the ECB and head of the Bank of France, confirmed that the European regulator would likely cut rates in June if there were no significant surprises. Even hawkish figures like Robert Holzmann, head of Austria's central bank, agreed with these dovish forecasts.

The pair closed the five-day period at 1.0656. Fundamental indicators still favour the dollar, and although a correction northward for the pair cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely to be substantial or prolonged. For the immediate future, as of the evening of April 19, 80% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, with the remaining 20% expecting a bounce upwards. Among trend indicators on D1, 90% are red, and 10% are green. All oscillators are red, though 15% of them are in the oversold zone. The nearest support for the pair is found at 1.0600-1.0620, followed by 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450, down to 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are at 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0725, 1.0795-1.0800, up to 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, and 1.1015, reaching up to 1.1050 and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming workweek can be termed a week of preliminary data. On Tuesday, April 23, preliminary business activity data (PMI) will be released for various sectors of the economy in Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA. On Thursday, April 25, preliminary U.S. GDP figures for Q1 2024 will be released. This will be followed by the usual data on initial unemployment claims and, on April 26, data on personal consumption expenditures in the country.

GBP/USD: CPI Disappoints BoE

Last week's macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom were less than favourable. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.2% from a forecast of 4.0%. Claims for unemployment benefits surged from 4.1K to 10.9K, although this was notably below the market's expectation of 17.2K.

The bigger surprise came from the inflation indicators released on Wednesday, April 17. General inflation (CPI) decreased from 3.4% to 3.2% year-on-year, and core inflation dropped from 4.5% to 4.2%, against a market expectation of 4.1%. The monthly CPI remained steady at 0.6%. Unexpectedly high food prices and a sharp increase in housing costs at 3.8% month-on-month contributed to the inflation surprise. Volatile items such as books and video games also saw significant price rises; book prices experienced the largest monthly increase ever recorded at 4.9%, while video games prices increased by 2.3%.

"Overall, this is not what the Bank of England (BoE) would have wanted to see," analysts at TD Securities commented. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey quickly reassured the public, stating, "We are virtually at the same inflation level as in February and I expect the data next month to show a significant drop." He also mentioned that the oil price hike had not been as steep as expected, and the impact of the Middle East conflict was less than feared.

Indeed, the price rise in airline tickets, which are significantly influenced by fuel costs, was just 0.1% month-on-month. Given the early Easter this year, this increase seems quite mild. However, BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene expressed concerns about how energy prices and other supply shocks might affect inflation expectations in the future.

Recall that a week earlier, Megan Greene, in her column in the Financial Times, stated that inflation risks in the United Kingdom remain much higher than in the USA, and that 'markets are mistaken in their predictions regarding rate cuts [for the pound].' 'Markets have come to believe that the Fed will not start lowering rates so soon. In my view,' she wrote at the time, 'rate cuts in the United Kingdom should also not be expected anytime soon.' Following such remarks, just as with the dollar, markets anticipate no more than two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, each by 25 basis points.

Last week, GBP/USD opened at 1.2448 and closed at 1.2370, failing to breach the key 1.2500 level. Analysts are divided on the pair's future movement: 80% foresee a further decline, while 20% predict a rebound. All D1 trend indicators and oscillators point downwards, though a third are signalling oversold conditions. If the pair falls further, support lies at 1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070, 1.1960, and 1.1840. In case of a rise, resistance will be encountered at 1.2425, 1.2515, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, and 1.2885-1.2900.

The upcoming week will see the release of preliminary business activity data (PMI) for the United Kingdom almost simultaneously with Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, April 23. No other significant economic data from the United Kingdom is expected this week.

USD/JPY: Higher and Higher...

Last week, USD/JPY once again reached a 34-year high, peaking at 154.78. This level was last seen in 1990. According to economists at the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB), the pricing dynamics continue to suggest further strengthening of the dollar. "The upside risks remain as long as the dollar stays above 153.75, our strong support level," they wrote. "Should the price break above 155.00, focus will shift to 155.50." Meanwhile, strategists from the Dutch Rabobank believe that reaching 155.00 could significantly increase the risk of currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance to protect the yen from further weakening. According to the results of a survey published by Reuters, nearly all respondents (91%) believe that Tokyo will intervene at some point to stop further weakening of the currency. Sixteen out of twenty-one economists expect interventions in the USD/JPY at the level of 155.00. The rest predict similar actions at levels of 156.00 (2 respondents), 157.00 (1), and 158.00 (2).

Strengthening the national currency could involve tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), whose next meeting is scheduled for Friday, April 26. At its last meeting on March 19, the Japanese regulator made an unprecedented move by raising the rate from -0.1% to +0.1%, the first increase in 17 years. Asahi Noguchi, a BoJ board member, indicated that any future rate increases would likely occur at a much slower pace compared to recent tightenings by other global central banks. He noted that it would take a significant amount of time for a positive rate cycle to become firmly established, making it uncertain whether there will be another rate increase this year.

A Reuters poll showed that no economists expect a rate hike by the BoJ before the end of June. However, 21 out of 61 respondents believe that rates could be raised in the third quarter, and 17 out of 55 anticipate a fourth-quarter hike. Of a smaller sample of 36 economists, 19% think a July hike is possible, but October is the most likely time for an increase, with approximately 36% expecting it. In contrast, 31% believe the BoJ might take action in 2025 or later.

The pair closed the week at 154.63. Rabobank experts currently see the dollar being supported by demand for safe assets amid escalating Middle East tensions. A de-escalation between Israel and Iran could help temper the rise of the American currency. The median forecast surprisingly aligns with predictions for the two previously mentioned pairs: 80% of analysts expect further weakening (downward movement for this pair indicates a strengthening dollar), while 20% anticipate a rebound. All D1 trend indicators and oscillators point upwards, with 50% in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 154.30, with further support at 153.90, 153.50, 152.75, 151.55-151.75, 150.80-151.15, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. Identifying resistance levels remains challenging after the pair's recent peaks, with the nearest resistance at 154.75-155.00, followed by 156.25. Additional benchmarks include the June 1990 monthly high around 155.80 and the April 1990 turnaround peak at 160.30.

Besides the aforementioned BoJ meeting, consumer inflation data for the Tokyo area will also be published on Friday, April 26. No other major events regarding the Japanese economy are expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Will China's BTC-ETF Ignite the Market?

This analysis is prepared just hours before the 'hour X': the scheduled halving on Saturday, April 20. We will detail the market's reaction to this significant event next week. Meanwhile, let's focus on the events leading up to it.

In the days leading up to the halving, the leading cryptocurrency did not bring joy to investors. Starting on April 8, the price of bitcoin was on a downward trajectory. The weekly decline in BTC was the largest in the past eight months, and in dollar terms, it was the steepest since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. Following bitcoin, other major altcoins also plummeted, losing about a third of their value. The local minimum for BTC/USD was recorded on April 17 at around $59,640. At that moment, analyst and co-founder of venture company CMCC Crest, Willy Woo, warned that if the price of bitcoin fell below the short-term holders' support level at $58,900, the market might enter a bear phase. However, this did not occur, and the price returned to around $62,000.

Analysts at CryptoQuant believe that the recent crash was necessary to reset unrealized trader profits to zero—a typical signal of a bottom in bull markets. Willy Woo suggested that "current bearish sentiments are actually a bullish sign," and that the next level where major short liquidations would occur is between $71,000 and $75,000. Renowned trader RektCapital reassured investors, stating that a price drop before the halving is a normal trend. "There is no need to panic, as this drop has occurred in all cycles. Don't think that it's different this time," he emphasized.

There were, however, other theories about the recent price drop. According to one, the fall in bitcoin was helped by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and an attack by Iran on Israel. CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, speculated that bitcoin could reach a new all-time high if the conflict in that region subsided. In this context, he urged world leaders to take control of the situation to prevent a further decline in prices for all financial assets, including cryptocurrency.

In contrast, Michael Saylor, president of MicroStrategy, believes that geopolitical tension will actually benefit bitcoin, suggesting that "chaos is good for bitcoin." Logically, this makes sense: cryptocurrency was born in response to the economic crisis of 2008, making it an alternative means of capital preservation during upheavals. (Note that MicroStrategy, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, is the largest public holder of bitcoin and naturally interested in its price increase.)

OpenAI's ChatGPT did not overlook the international situation either. This Artificial Intelligence believes that if the crisis between Israel and Iran intensifies, the price of the main cryptocurrency will only slightly decrease, and this will be a short-term reaction. More severe impacts would likely be on assets like stocks. Bitcoin, however, is expected to quickly recover its position. ChatGPT, like Michael Saylor, anticipates that an initial drop will be followed by a bullish rally as investors look for a safe haven, potentially driving "digital gold" to a new historical high of $75,000. If the escalation in the Middle East becomes protracted and leads to a series of smaller conflicts, ChatGPT predicts the volatility range for bitcoin could expand: with an initial fall to $55,000 followed by a surge to $80,000.

It is worth noting that the discussed drop in BTC/USD occurred against the backdrop of a noticeable strengthening of the American currency. This was not only due to the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tension but also because of a postponement in market expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's easing of monetary policy. After the inflation data published on April 10, market participants decided that the first rate cut would not happen in June but in September, causing the Dollar Index (DXY) to surge sharply. Naturally, the strengthening of one asset in a currency pair led to the weakening of the other: the principle of leverage is irrefutable.

Now, a few words about what awaits the main cryptocurrency after the halving. This year, 75% of the investment influx has been provided by the newly launched spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Their combined balance now totals $12.5 billion, with the U.S. accounting for over 95% of the global inflow into exchange-traded crypto funds. The interest in ETFs has been so strong that BlackRock's fund became the fastest-growing in history.

According to CryptoQuant analysts, the reserves of bitcoin on exchanges will last only a few months at the current rates. Total available exchange reserves have decreased by more than 800,000 BTC and have reached their lowest level in the history of two-year observations. As of April 16, they stand at about 2 million BTC. Assuming a daily influx into spot BTC-ETFs of about $500 million, which at current prices equates to approximately 8,025 coins, it would take just nine months to completely deplete these reserves.

The results of calculations using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which demonstrates the relationship between an asset's usage and its reserves, show that after the halving, the bitcoin S2F coefficient will reach 112 points. This is nearly twice the S2F for gold (60 points), indicating that by January 2025, bitcoin will become a more scarce commodity than the most popular precious metal.

In such a scenario, another powerful new driver could emerge. Following the U.S., similar investment inflows into cryptocurrency could be provided by spot ETFs in China. According to insider information from Bloomberg, the SEC of Hong Kong could make a positive decision on launching such funds within the next few days. And perhaps the predictions by ARK Invest's CEO, Cathy Wood, and author Robert Kiyosaki, who expect the price of bitcoin to reach $2.3 million per coin by 2030, are not so far from the truth.

As of the evening of Friday, April 19, BTC/USD is trading around $64,150. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $2.32 trillion, down from $2.44 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 79 to 66 points, moving from the Extreme Greed zone to the Greed zone.

Finally, a bit of intriguing information for collectors. As it has been revealed, miners have begun active preparations for the "hunt" for the first "epic" satoshi to be mined after the current halving. Whoever mines it might receive a substantial sum, as the estimated value of this "collectible" digital coin could be several tens of millions of dollars. About two years ago, Casey Rodarmor, creator of the Ordinals protocol on the blockchain of the first cryptocurrency, developed a system for classifying the rarity of individual sats. With the launch of "inscriptions," it became possible to number and sell fractions of bitcoin similar to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Rodarmor's scale varies from the first "unusual" satoshi in each block to the "mythical" – the very first in the history of the blockchain. One of the highest degrees of rarity is the "epic" sat, mined in the first block after each halving. It is possible that collectors might value such an asset even at $50 million. (Remember that a satoshi is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin (0.00000001), and at the current BTC price, the price of a regular, non-collectible sat is just $0.00064).

It was a dramatic week in the global financial markets with rapid shifts in investor sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While calm was eventually restored somewhat, the volatility served as a clear indicator of the underlying vulnerability in investor confidence.

Amidst this geopolitical backdrop, the narrative from Fed hawks solidified the expectations of a later and smaller smaller scale of interest rate cuts this year. For some FOMC members, even the possibility of an additional rate hike has not been completely dismissed.

As the week concluded, Dollar held a middle ground in the currency rankings. But it's positioned to capitalize should geopolitical tensions flare up anew, or risk sentiment turns sour further.

Overall in the currency markets, Swiss Franc affirmed its status as a prime safe-haven asset, outperforming other major currencies throughout the week. Canadian Dollar and Euro also stood out with strong performances. Conversely, Japanese Yen remained the week's weakest link, even though it showed signs of deceleration in its decline against Dollar. New Zealand and Australian Dollars, along with the British Pound, rounded out the lower end of the performance spectrum.

Bearish Turn in US Stocks Continue to Take Shape, Supporting Dollar

The bearish reversal in US stock markets became increasingly apparent last week. S&P 500 logged its most substantial weekly decline since March of the previous year, with a loss exceeding -3%. NASDAQ wasn't spared either, enduring -5.5% drop, marking its steepest weekly fall since November 2022. Although DOW managed a slight increase of 0.01%, this marginal gain did little to counteract the broader losses it faced earlier in the month.

Investor sentiment has been dampened by a combination of delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Initial hopes for a rate cut as early as mid-year have been pushed back with market consensus now pointing towards an adjustment no sooner than September. This shift comes in response to persistently high inflation rates that have tempered the urgency for immediate monetary easing.

Additionally, the geopolitical landscape has introduced further instability into the markets. Recent escalations between Israel and Iran had investors on edge, as they could have far-reaching impacts on global inflation and supply chain. Although a full-blown conflict was seemingly averted, the dramatic fluctuations observed on Friday highlights the fragile state of global investor confidence, reflecting the risk for sudden market shifts based on geopolitical developments.

Technically, it's unsure whether S&P 500's fall from 5263.95 is correcting the rise from 4103.78 only, or the whole five-wave up trend from 3491.58. But in either case, deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 4103.78 to 5263.95 at 4817.92. Above 55 D EMA (now at 5067.54) will bring recovery first. But risk will now continue to stay on the downside as long as 5263.96 resistance holds.

Decisive break of 4817.92 will target 4600 cluster support in the medium term, which includes 4607.07 resistance turned support, 61.8% retracement of 4103.78 to 5263.95 at 4586.90, and 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 5263.96 at 4586.9.

Similarly, further decline is expected in NASDAQ to 38.2% retracement of 12543.85 to 16538.86 at 15015.21 first. Decisive break there will suggest that it's already correcting the whole five-wave up trend from 10207.47. Next target will be cluster support slightly above 14000, with 61.8% retracement of 12543.85 to 16538.86 at 14074.74 and 38.2% retracement of 10207.47 to 16538.86 at 14120.26.

Dollar Index edged higher to 106.51 last week but turned sideway since then. Some consolidations would be seen first but further rally is expected as long as 104.97 resistance turned support holds. Rise from 100.61 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 99.57. Break of 106.51 will target 107.34 resistance, and possibly further to 100% projection of 99.57 to 107.34 from 100.61 at 108.38. The next up move could be fueled by intensified risk aversion.

Sterling Tumbles as Markets Reassess Chance of Summer BoE Rate Cut

Sterling ended as the worst European major last week, largely due to the sharp decline towards the week's end. Expectations on BoE rate cut changed little earlier in the week, impact from weaker than expected job data offset by stronger than expected inflation reading. However, the real catalyst for Sterling's downturn was the remarks from BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

Ramsden's commentary suggested a closer alignment of UK's inflation trends with that of Eurozone, rather than the US. He indicated that the upcoming April CPI figures are likely to reflect this convergence. He highlighted the easing labor market and the effective impact of current restrictive monetary policies in controlling inflation, particularly within the service sector. Inflation is less of a worry for Ramsden now.

This discourse reintroduced the possibility of a rate cut by BoE this summer, following ECB's anticipated reduction in June and preceding Fed's expected adjustment in September.

Technically, GBP/CHF's steep decline last week was contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0634 to 1.1481 at 1.1157 so far. That keeps price actions from 1.1481 as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0634 only. Break of 1.1360 minor resistance will solidify near term bullishness for another rally through to 1.1481 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.1157 will raise the chance of reversal, as another falling leg in the pattern from 1.1574. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 and below.

Kiwi and Aussie Underperform on Risk Aversion

New Zealand and Australian Dollar were both underperformers last week. The weakness more stemmed from risk-off sentiment, as both RBNZ and RBA are no where near a rate cut for now.

NZD/USD is now trying to draw support from falling channel support line. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.5938 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of the channel could prompt downside acceleration through 0.5771 low. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 0.6368 to 0.6037 from 0.6215 at 0.5679 next. Nevertheless, break of 0.5938 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound first.

AUD/CAD's breach of 0.8799 support affirms that case that corrective recovery from 0.8725 has completed with three waves up to 0.9005. Further decline is now expected as long as 0.8881 resistance holds. Firm break of 08725 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.9063. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.9063 to 0.8725 from 0.9005 at 0.8667, or even further to retest 0.8562 low.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY rose further to 154.77 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 150.83).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds (2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 152.87 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 172.08. (This is a pure technical view without considering Japan's intervention.)

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0601 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138t o 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Current fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg. While deeper decline is would be seen to 1.0447 and possibly below, Strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 to complete the correction.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It's still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1036) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY rose further to 154.77 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 150.83).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds (2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 152.87 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 172.08. (This is a pure technical view without considering Japan's intervention.)

GBP/USD's decline from 1.2892 continued lower last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2207 next. On the upside, above 1.2467 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.2036 support and possibly below. But strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2452 at 1.1417 to complete the correction.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.