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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2468; (P) 1.2497; (R1) 1.2525; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is in favor with 1.2471 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2471 will indicate that this rebound has completed, and revive near term bearishness. Retest of 1.2298 should then be seen in this case.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg which might have completed already. Break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351(2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.3141. Meanwhile, break of 1.2298 support will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9071; (P) 0.9083; (R1) 0.9093; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9096) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9000) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will suggest that the pull back has completed, and bring stronger rebound to retest 0.9223 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6557; (P) 0.6580; (R1) 0.6602; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6562) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 0.6464 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3704; (P) 1.3733; (R1) 1.3752; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3629) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target 1.3477 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9751; (P) 0.9762; (R1) 0.9772; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9728 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Break of 0.9847 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8587; (P) 0.8603; (R1) 0.8615; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from 0.8497 low. On the downside, below 0.8585 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6280; (P) 1.6332; (R1) 1.6388; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.6216 is still extending. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 will turn bias back to the downside to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at 1.5807.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.47; (P) 166.91; (R1) 167.63; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 164.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58. Further rise would be seen to 168.64 resistance. On the downside, below 165.63 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). As long as 55 W EMA (now at 157.82) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

USDJPY has been in a roller coaster in the last few weeks due to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Intervention. In this article, we will look at the short term Elliott Wave path for the currency post the intervention. We are calling the structure of the rally from 12.28.2023 low as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Up from 12.28.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 150.88 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 146.485.

The pair then extended higher in wave 3 towards 160.21. The 45 minutes chart below shows the starting point of wave 3 high. Pullback in wave 4, which is supposedly when the BOJ intervened, took the form of a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 154.48 and wave ((b)) ended at 157.98. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 151.81 which completed wave 4 in higher degree. The pair has turned higher in wave 5. Up from wave 5, wave (i) ended at 154 and wave (ii) ended at 153.4. Near term, as far as pivot at 151.8 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

USDJPY 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAd030RIjHU

Stocks on this side of the Atlantic Ocean are better bid these days than their American peers thanks to a combination of too-lofty valuations in the US, good corporate earnings from European companies and the expectation of looser monetary policies in Europe and the UK sooner than in the US. Plus, the AI rally – that’s been boosting the major US indices - looks like it is losing momentum.

The Stoxx 600 and the FTSE 100 traded at fresh records yesterday, as the S&P500 stalled. Nvidia for example, hasn’t hit a fresh record since March and AMD lost more than 30% since its March peak. Arm holdings, on the other hand, tanked 9% in the afterhours trading yesterday, after lowering its revenue and profit forecast for this fiscal year. Nvidia’s earnings – due May 22nd – can’t come soon enough to confirm or reject the fear that AI spending might start slowing. If that’s the case, the US stocks will need the help of a favourable Federal Reserve (Fed) stance to hold ground near ATH levels, but the macroeconomic picture is – what it is.

Yesterday saw another Fed speaker, Susan Collins, echo that reaching the 2% inflation goal could take longer than previously, while Lisa Cook said that firms have ample earnings to cover their debt payments, that financial firms are well positioned to absorb shocks and that the commercial real estate risks are sizeable but manageable. All in all, she didn’t sound like there is any sense of emergency for cutting the interest rates while inflation is comfortably stagnating above 3% in the US.

In Europe, however, things look different. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate in the Q1 due to a sufficient slowdown in inflation, the Riksbank opted for a 25bp cut yesterday, as expected, and said that there could be two more rate cuts this year, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut its rates when it meets in June, and the Bank of England (BoE) will – maybe – give more details on its plans to lower rates at today’s MPC decision.

What’s interesting is the European and Brits’ determination to ease their monetary policies regardless of what the Fed will do despite the risk of seeing their currencies depreciate and re-boost the domestic price pressures. Yet the European policymakers’ new slogan ‘data-dependent, not Fed-dependent’ will seemingly keep them on a dovish diverging path as long as the dollar’s appreciation remains manageable. For now, the undiscourageable Fed doves keep the dollar appetite contained. But as long as this focus on economy continues – which will require a steady slowdown in inflation – we shall see the European currencies continue to depreciate against the US dollar.

Zoom into the BoE

The BoE is not expected to cut its policy rate today, but the MPC is expected to agree less on when to cut rates. Four MPC members out of nine are sitting in the hawkish camp, Governor Bailey has shifted his stance from ‘it’s too early to talk about cuts’ to ‘the inflation dynamics between the US and UK are diverging’. Some see a small chance that the BoE could cut rates in June meeting, In tandem with the ECB. But a more realistic scenario is an August BoE cut.

Walking into the meeting, Cable trades in the bearish consolidation zone - below the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on October to March rebound, and unless we hear anything unexpectedly hawkish, there is no reason for it to reverse trend. Cable should continue to attract sellers near the 1.25 level into next week’s US inflation report. Then, things will likely take a clearer turn.