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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8656; (P) 0.8671; (R1) 0.8692; More....

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8548 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 0.8764 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.8633 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8548 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. This decline is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Break of 0.8201 will target 100% projection of 0.9499 to 0.8201 from 0.9267 at 0.7969. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8764 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6144; (P) 1.6210; (R1) 1.6252; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.6319 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.6478 resistance. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.6148 will resume recent decline for 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9409; (P) 0.9430; (R1) 0.9448; More...

EUR/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 0.9402 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 0.9543 resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.9407 will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9416 from 0.9683 at 0.9325. However, sustained break of 0.9543 will bring further rally back to 0.9683 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9407 (2022 low) will resume long term down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 (2020 high) to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3246; (P) 1.3311; (R1) 1.3345; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 1.3897 is in progress and would targets a retest on 1.3091 support. On the upside, above 1.3369 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3479 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by deeper then expected fall from 1.3897. But after all, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern that's in progress. Larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6751; (P) 0.6777; (R1) 0.6830; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 0.6269 should target 0.6894 resistance first. Sustained break there will target 0.7156 next. On the downside, below 0.6723 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6541 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.57; (P) 142.60; (R1) 143.14; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 140.94 is extending. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 146.58 resistance holds. Firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8536; (P) 0.8587; (R1) 0.8614; More....

Immediate focus is now on 0.8551 support in USD/CHF. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. Break of 0.8650 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8819 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8551 could trigger downside acceleration to 100% projection of 0.9111 to 0.8665 from 0.8819 at 0.8373.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8551 are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the decline from 1.0146 (2022 high). Fall from 0.9243 is seen as the second leg for now. Strong support should be seen 0.8551 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 0.8819 resistance will argue that the third leg has started already, and target 0.9243. However, firm break of 0.8551 will confirm resumption of larger down trend from 1.0146 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2636; (P) 1.2666; (R1) 1.2720; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2793 is extending. Further rally is still expected as long as 1.2499 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.2793 will resume the rally from 1.2036. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2068 to 1.2731 from 1.2499 at 1.2909.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg that's in progress. Upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0960; (P) 1.0986; (R1) 1.1038; More...

EUR/USD breached 1.1008 but stays below 1.1016 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1016 will resume the whole rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. However, break of 1.0888 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the pattern from 1.1016 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

The forex markets have entered a quieter phase in Asian session, likely influenced by the holiday season, leading to reduced market activity. This calm follows an overnight sell-off of Dollar, driven by renewed risk-on sentiment as seen in the stock markets. Despite this shift, the Dollar has not experienced further selling pressure in Asia. Market participants are now closely monitoring key upcoming economic data from US, including PCE inflation and durable goods orders. However, the likelihood of a significant or sustained move in the greenback appears limited for the time being.

Japanese Yen, which had been showing signs of recovery, is now seeing its momentum wane following release of Japan's inflation data, which came in line with market expectations. Minutes from BoJ's October meeting revealed a diversity of opinions among policymakers about the timing for exiting negative interest rates, with a notable emphasis on preparing market communications for such a transition. For the time being, Yen is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with more range-bound trading likely in the near term.

GBP/CAD is a pair that's worth some attention today, given releases of UK retail sales and Canadian GDP data. Technically, fall from 1.7270 short term top is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.7332. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.7051 minor resistance holds, to 61.8% retracement of 1.6335 to 1.7270 at 1.6705 and below. But stronger support should emerge at around 1.6355 to complete the decline.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.11%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.27%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.17%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.01%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0361 at 0.628. Overnight, DOW rose 0.87%. S&P 500 rose 1.03%. NASDAQ rose 1.26%. 10-year yield rose 0.017 to 3.894.

Japan's CPI core slows to 2.5% yoy, but services inflation hit three-decade high

Japan's core CPI, which excludes fresh food, decreased from 2.9% yoy to 2.5% yoy in November, marking the lowest level since July 2022. Despite this deceleration, inflation remains above BoJ's target of 2% for the twentieth consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.

All-items CPI also experienced a slowdown, dropping from 3.3% yoy to 2.8% yoy. Additionally, core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, showed a slight decrease from 4.0% yoy to 3.8% yoy.

Notably, goods inflation saw a significant reduction, declining from 4.4% yoy to 3.3% yoy. In contrast, service inflation showed an acceleration, rising from 2.1% yoy to 2.3% yoy. This increase in service inflation is the sharpest in three decades, dating back to October 1993, if the effects of past consumption tax hikes are excluded.

Energy prices, a key factor in inflation calculations, dropped by -10.1% yoy. Japanese government's subsidies to reduce fuel costs played a role in tempering inflation rates. Without these subsidies, core CPI would have seen an increase of around 3%, according to the ministry.

Looking ahead

UK retail sales and Q3 GDP final are the main features in European session. Later in the data, Canada GDP is a focus. Also, US will release personal income and spending with PCE inflation, as well as durable goods orders.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0960; (P) 1.0986; (R1) 1.1038; More...

EUR/USD breached 1.1008 but stays below 1.1016 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1016 will resume the whole rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. However, break of 1.0888 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the pattern from 1.1016 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Economic Indicators Update