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Market movers today

Data calendar for today is almost empty for main markets, only German IFO index for October due.

In Sweden, September PPI index will be released.

Otherwise, we continue to keep a close eye on developments in Middle East before we tune in for the ECB meeting on Thursday.

The 60 second overview

Markets: Equities halted a five-day decline as improved earnings reports and a calmer bond market spurred broad gains. The S&P 500 saw a 0.7% increase, with nearly every sector rising, while the tech-centric Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had surged to a 16-year high of over 5% on Monday, retraced to around 4.84%. European equities closed higher with STOXX600 rising 0.4%, despite the release of a gloomy report on the euro area economy. Elsewhere, EUR/USD ticked lower to 1.06 on the relatively stronger US PMI data. Oil prices ended lower for a third consecutive session as traders continued to monitor the conflict in the Middle East. Markets in Asia are mostly higher this morning as China has once again stepped up stimulus measures. European futures are higher while US futures are mixed with tech-heavy indices lower, driven by late hour earnings disappointments.

Euro area: Monetary policy tightening may be materialising in the euro area after yesterday's weaker-than-expected PMI figures. The economic deterioration seems to be broad-based with both the manufacturing and service sector declining. The composite index stood at 46.5 (cons.: 47.4, prior: 47.2). The rate sensitive manufacturing sector declined for the seventh consecutive month to 43.0 (cons.: 43.7, prior: 43.4), while the service sector fell to 47.8 (cons.: 48.6, prior: 48.7). Overall, the euro area October PMIs signal that economy continued to cool in Q4, which is what the ECB wants, as both activity and prices fell thereby confirming the 'soft landing narrative'. The labour market also cooled with the manufacturing sector recording the largest employment declines in three years while service sector employment almost stagnated. The risk for the soft-landing narrative is still that activity suddenly declines too fast. Currently, this risk is mainly present in the manufacturing sector that continues to be weaker than expected. New orders fell in both sectors, which signals further downside risks ahead. Hence, the economy is still cooling, but the continued weak manufacturing sector could quickly make the slowdown too fast for ECB's comfort.

US: In the US, PMI composite recorded a reading of 51 (cons.: 50.0, prior: 50.2). Both manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations. Manufacturing PMI reached 50 (cons.: 49.5, prior: 49.8), marking its highest level since April. Services PMI showed improvement as well, rising to 50.9 (cons.: 49.9, prior: 50.1). Overall, another upside surprise in US macro data, adding broad support to the USD. Details showed easing services sector price pressures and employment indices ticking modestly lower, which suggest easing price pressures, pointing to less need for Fed tightening.

UK: UK preliminary PMIs for October were slightly better than expected. Composite higher at 48.6 (cons: 48.5, prior: 48.5). Momentum in service sector continues to fade in line with the past months' releases with September at 49.2 (cons: 49.3, prior: 49.3). Input price inflation meanwhile slowed for the third consecutive month in October and was the lowest since early 2021 and cost pressures overall seem to moderate. All indices remain below 50 and overall point to an increasingly gloomy growth outlook despite the slight upside surprise.

Equities: Global equities were higher yesterday, as yields were lower. The biggest drop in US yields was on Monday but still influenced cash equity trading on Tuesday. Macro data was not at all impressive and hence the bad-news-good-news for equities also still vibrant. It was not a massive rotation story yesterday since energy was the only outlier as oil prices lost a couple of percentage points. Earnings numbers were mixed yesterday both during trading hours and after the close of US cash trading. In US yesterday, Dow +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.9% and Russell 2000 +0.8%.

FI: Yesterday, European bonds partly caught up with the rally in US Treasuries late Monday. The quite significant yield declines seen in the morning were supported by the Eurozone PMIs coming out weaker than expected in October, and the Q3 ECB Bank Lending Survey showing renewed tightening of credit conditions among banks. The bond market rally lost some steam in the afternoon, though Bund yields ended the day 5bp lower across the curve. Long UST yields fell marginally throughout the day, while the short end of the curve rose following the surprisingly strong US PMI figures in the afternoon.

FX: After the almost one-figure increase in EUR/USD on the back of declining US yields, the cross declined to around the 1.06 mark yesterday. USD/JPY continues to trade just short of 150. EUR/GBP remains steady slightly above the 0.87 mark. The pressure on Scandies continued with EUR/SEK increasing above 11.75 and EUR/NOK surpassing 11.80.

Credit: Yesterday we saw a continuation of more supportive risk sentiment in the credit markets. Itraxx main tightened 1.6bp to 85.4bp while Xover tightened 8.5bp to 455bp. In spite of the strength in synthetic indices we continue to register weakness in cash bonds where the amount of sellers out-number the buyers, and where investors continue to fear negative fall-outs from the combination of high rates and the risk of a gloomy macro-economy in most jurisdictions.

DXY:

The DXY chart currently maintains a bearish overall momentum, suggesting the potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 105.38 is considered significant as it aligns with an overlap support level, indicating its potential importance as a substantial area of price support. Additionally, there is an intermediate support at 106.02, which is identified as a pullback support. This further reinforces the notion of potential support in this region and may act as a key level where buyers could step in to counter further downward movement.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 106.72 is characterized as a swing high resistance level, signifying a potential barrier to upward price movements. Beyond this, the 2nd resistance at 107.37 is also marked as a swing high resistance, emphasizing the presence of resistance zones that could impede any upward price advances.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum, indicating the potential scenario of a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support at 1.0492 is considered significant as it aligns with a swing low support level, suggesting a potential area of price support. Additionally, there is a level at 1.0580 where traders are waiting for downside confirmation, and it’s identified as an overlap support. This level may serve as a key reference point for potential reversals.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.0680 is characterized as a swing high resistance level, indicating a potential barrier to further upward price movements. Additionally, there is an intermediate resistance at 1.0635, marked as an overlap resistance, which could further impede upward price advances.

EUR/JPY:

The EUR/JPY chart is exhibiting a weak bullish momentum with price making a bullish reaction off the 1st support level to rise towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level at 158.51 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. Further below, the 2nd support level at 157.65 is marked a pullback support that aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 159.78 is identified as a pullback resistance. The 2nd resistance level at 160.31 is identified as a level that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci projection level.

EUR/GBP:

The EUR/GBP chart is exhibiting a bullish momentum with price making a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st resistance level at 0.8731 is identified as an overlap resistance. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 0.8759 is identified as a level that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci projection level.

To the downside, the intermediate support level at 0.8701 is identified as an overlap support while the 1st support level at 0.8687 is also marked as an overlap support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 0.8670 is identified as an overlap support.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart currently exhibits bearish overall momentum, suggesting the potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 1.2106 is considered significant as it aligns with a multi-swing low support level, indicating a potential area of price support. Additionally, the 2nd support at 1.2049 is identified as another multi-swing low support, and it coincides with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension level, which adds to its significance as a potential strong support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.2270 is characterized as an overlap resistance level, which could pose as a barrier to further upward price movements. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 1.2340 is marked as a swing high resistance, indicating another potential level where the price may face resistance.

GBP/JPY:

The GBP/JPY chart currently exhibits a neutral momentum with price potentially fluctuating between the 1st resistance and the 1st support levels.

The 1st support level at 181.28 is identified as a pullback support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 179.68 is marked as a swing-low support.

On the resistance side, the intermediate resistance level at 182.84 is identified as an overlap resistance. Higher up, the 1st resistance level at 183.71 is noted as a pullback resistance.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart currently exhibits bearish overall momentum, indicating the potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 0.8868 is considered significant as it aligns with a pullback support level, suggesting it could act as a potential area of price support. Additionally, the 2nd support at 0.8807 is identified as an overlap support, further reinforcing the potential for it to provide strong support to the price.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.8940 is characterized as an overlap resistance level, which could serve as a barrier to any significant upward price movement. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 0.8995 is also marked as an overlap resistance, indicating another potential level where the price may face resistance.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, indicating the potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 149.41 is considered significant as it aligns with an overlap support level, suggesting it could act as a potential area of price support. Additionally, the 2nd support at 148.41 is also identified as an overlap support, further reinforcing the potential for it to provide strong support to the price.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 149.97 is characterized as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a potential barrier to any significant upward price movement.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart currently exhibits an overall bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying bearish divergence versus price, indicating the likelihood of a bearish move towards the 1st support level, especially if price breaks below the intermediate support.

The intermediate support level at 1.3736 is identified as an overlap support while the 1st support level at 1.3689 is also marked as an overlap support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 1.3658 is noted as a pullback support, potentially acting as a strong support zone.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 1.3786 is identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 100.00% Fibonacci projection level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 1.848 is also marked as a swing-high resistance, potentially acting as a barrier to further bullish advances.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD chart currently exhibits a neutral momentum with price potentially making a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance level to drop lower towards the 1st support level.

The 1st resistance level at 0.6392 is identified as an overlap resistance. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 0.6439 is marked as a swing-high resistance, making it a potentially strong resistance level.

To the downside the 1st support level at 0.6347 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 0.6295 is noted as a multi-swing-low support, further reinforcing its importance as a potential support area.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum with price potentially making a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance level to drop lower towards the 1st support level. In addition, price is also trading below the bearish Ichimoku cloud to reinforce the bearish momentum.

The 1st resistance level at 0.5864 is identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 0.5934 is also marked as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level, making it a potentially strong resistance level.

To the downside the 1st support level at 0.5816 is identified as a pullback support. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 0.5758 is noted as a support level that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level, further reinforcing its importance as a potential support area.

DJ30:

The Dow Jones (DJ30) chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum with price potentially making a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 32,875.86 is identified as a pullback support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 32,726.41 is also noted as a pullback support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 33,452.55 is identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e.e the 50.00% retracement and the 78.60% projection levels. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 34,074.52 is marked as an overlap resistance.

GER40:

The DAX (GER40) chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum with price potentially making a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 14,628.70 is identified as a swing-low support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 14,555.10 is marked as a level that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 15,007.60 is identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 15,135.90 is noted as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level.

US500

The S&P 500 (US500) chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum with price potentially making a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 4,198.80 is identified as a pullback support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 4,173.40 is also marked as a pullback support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 4,264.90 is identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 4,318.00 is noted as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

BTC/USD:

The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart currently exhibits an overall bullish momentum with price potentially making a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st resistance level at 34,664 is identified as an overlap resistance. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 37,460 is marked as a pullback resistance.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 31,832 is identified as a pullback support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 30,217 is also noted as pullback support.

ETH/USD:

The Ethereum (ETH/USD) chart currently exhibits an overall bullish momentum with price potentially making a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st resistance level at 1,846.08 is identified as a pullback resistance. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 1,879.88 is also marked as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 1,775.49 is identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Further below, the 2nd support level at 1,735.19 is also noted as pullback support that aligns with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

WTI/USD:

The WTI chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum, indicating a potential scenario for price to make a bearish continuation towards the 2nd support level should it break below the 1st support level. In addition, price has also broken below the bullish Ichimoku cloud to reinforce the bearish momentum.

The 1st support level at 83.38 is identified as an overlap support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 80.64 is also marked as a swing-low support that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a potential support zone.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 85.11 is identified as an overlap resistance. Beyond this, the 2nd resistance level at 89.36 is noted as a swing-high resistance, making it a potentially strong resistance level.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

The XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) chart currently demonstrates a bearish overall momentum, suggesting the potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 1947.23 is considered significant as it aligns with an overlap support level, indicating its potential to serve as a substantial area of price support. Additionally, the 2nd support at 1932.26 is identified as a pullback support, further strengthening the potential for it to act as a support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1984.47 is characterized as a multi-swing high resistance level, implying that it could pose a significant obstacle to any notable upward price movement. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 2003.60 is identified as a swing high resistance, reinforcing the potential for resistance in this region.

Additionally, there is an intermediate support at 1957.29, which aligns with an overlap support, providing an additional level of potential support for price.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0551; (P) 1.0623; (R1) 1.0662; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.0693 will resume the rebound to 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763). On the downside, break of 1.0522 support will retain near term bearishness for resuming the whole decline from 1.1274 through 1.0447 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0684) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2113; (P) 1.2201; (R1) 1.2249; More

GBP/USD is extending the consolidation pattern from 1.2036 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside breakout is still mildly in favor. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2036 will resume whole decline from 1.3141 for 1.1801 support next. However, break of 1.2336 will turn bias back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top could still be a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) only. But risk of complete trend reversal is rising. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1417. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.2384) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8895; (P) 0.8924; (R1) 0.8960; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral, and further decline is expected as long as 0.9000 resistance holds. Below 0.8886 will resume the fall from 0.9243 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8551 to 0.9243 at 0.8815 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8551 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.9000 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8974) argues that rebound from 0.8551 might be completed as a correction at 0.9243. In other words, larger fall from 1.0146 (2022 high) is possibly not over yet. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8551 will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.51; (P) 149.72; (R1) 150.12; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as consolidation from 150.15 is extending. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3660; (P) 1.3698; (R1) 1.3729; More...

USD/CAD continues to spiral higher but stays below 1.3784 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 1.3784 could extend further. On the downside, break of 1.3659 support will bring another falling leg to extend the near term corrective pattern from 1.3784. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3784 resistance will resume the rise from 1.3091 to retest 1.3976 high.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Decisive break of 1.3976 high will confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3378 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6333; (P) 0.6356; (R1) 0.6379; More...

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays below 0.6444 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and downside breakout is expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.6284 will resume whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. However, firm break of 0.6444 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Australian Dollar made significant gains in Asian session today following unexpectedly robust inflation figures for Q3 and September. This has caused a flurry of revised predictions from economists who now anticipate a rate hike by RBA in its next meeting in November. While there's speculation about a subsequent hike in December, such a back-to-back move by RBA remains a distant probability. Boosting Aussie's ascent is also reports on China's intentions to roll out a new fiscal stimulus to bolster its economic recovery. New Zealand Dollar is tailing Aussie, marking its position as the day's second strongest currency.

Conversely, all eyes are on Canadian Dollar as it lags, with BoC's impending rate decision looming large. Although the consensus leans towards BoC maintaining its current stance, market participants will be keenly observing the accompanying statement and freshly minted economic forecasts. Dollar is also on the softer side, possibly marking time until the release of US GDP figures tomorrow. With treasury yields hinting at short-term stabilization, the forthcoming economic data could be pivotal for the greenback. Meanwhile, Yen and Swiss Franc are on standby, tracking overarching risk sentiments. The Euro and Sterling are displaying a moderate recovery, offsetting some of the previous day's losses post PMI data release.

From a technical standpoint, Gold is now at a near term juncture. The precious metal's immediate challenge is to capitalize on its rebound from t3.6% retracement of 1810.26 to 1997.00 at 1925.25 and surpass the 1997.00 resistance in the next two days. Failure to do so might send it back to 38.2% retracement at 1925.66, extending the correction into mid-November.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.87%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.79%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.45%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0024 at 0.856. Overnight, DOW rose 0.62%. S&P 500 rose 0.73%. NASDAQ rose 0.93%. 10-year yield rose 0.002 to 4.840.

Australia CPI slows to 5.4% yoy in Q3, but rises to 5.6% yoy in Sep

Australia's CPI for Q3 registered a 1.2% qoq rise, exceeding expectation of 1.1% qoq and marking an acceleration from the previous quarter's 0.8% qoq. Notably, some of the most pronounced price hikes were observed in automotive fuel (+7.2%), rents (+2.2%), new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers (+1.3%), and electricity (+4.2%).

Over the twelve months, inflation saw a deceleration, with CPI moving from 6.0% yoy to 5.4% yoy in Q3. However, this figure surpassed the anticipated 5.3% yoy. It's essential to note that this is the third consecutive quarter where the annual inflation rate has experienced a downturn, dropping from its high of 7.8% in Q4 2022.

The trimmed mean CPI, which excludes volatile items, recorded a 1.2% qoq increase again outpacing the forecasted 1.1% qoq and the previous quarter's 1.0% qoq . When analyzing the annualized data, the trimmed mean CPI decelerated from 5.9% yoy to 5.2% yoy, surpassing the predicted 5.1% yoy.

Commenting on the latest figures, Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of price statistics, highlighted that "prices continued to rise for most goods and services." However, she also noted a few sectors that registered price declines, notably child care, vegetables, and domestic holiday travel and accommodation.

Furthermore, the monthly CPI for September recorded acceleration from 5.2% yoy to 5.6% yoy , which was above the anticipated 5.4% yoy. Significant price surges in this period were identified in Housing (+7.2%), Transport (+9.4%), and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.7%).

Reflecting on these trends, Marquardt stated, "This is the second consecutive rise in the annual movement up from 5.2% in August and 4.9% in July. While many industries' price increases are slowing, automotive fuel has had large annual increases in the last two months, which has been driving the movement higher."

Aussie soars on anticipated RBA Nov hike; GBP/AUD targets 1.8854 support

Australian Dollar experienced a notable surge following the release of higher-than-anticipated consumer inflation figures. The data illustrates an accelerated quarterly inflation rate for Q3, and a more modest deceleration in the annual inflation rate than projected. Furthermore, the monthly CPI has been on the rise for two consecutive months. Given this backdrop, market participants are now anticipating another 25bps rate hike by RBA in their upcoming November 7th meeting, pushing the rate to 4.35%.

For a deeper understanding, one can refer to the minutes from RBA's October meeting which highlighted the Board's "low tolerance" towards unexpected surges in inflation. Adding weight to these expectations, Governor Michelle Bullock made it clear just a day prior, stating, "The Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation."

GBP/AUD's steep decline this week argues that corrective rebound from 1.8854 has completed at 1.9339 already. That came after failure to sustain above 55 D EMA (now at 1.9226). Risk will now stay on the downside as as 1.9339 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Break of 1.8854 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.9967 to 61.8% projection of 1.9967 to 1.8854 from 1.9339 at 1.8651 next.

BoC to hold, with hawkish untone?

BoC rate decision is today's market highlight, as the consensus veers towards maintaining interest rate at 5.00%. The potential for a rate hike has dwindled, especially after the September CPI data revealed a more rapid deceleration in inflation than anticipated. Now, speculations swirl regarding the possibility of a "hawkish hold," which leaves the door open for further tightening.

Market consensus on the BoC's next moves, however, isn't unanimous. A recent Reuters poll showcased a split opinion. A slim majority of 8 of the 18 economists surveyed perceive a a "high" likelihood of another hike. As for rate reductions, opinions stand divided too. 19 economists project rates falling beneath the current benchmark by the end of June, while 11 anticipate maintaining or even exceeding the current level.

As the BoC is set to unveil its latest growth and inflation forecasts, market participants are keenly awaiting insights that might shed light on the bank's future monetary stance.

Amid these discussions, the Canadian Dollar isn't faring well, even when pitted against the underperforming Yen. Risk is mildly on the downside for CAD/JPY as long as 109.96 resistance holds. Deeper fall is slightly in favor as to 107.51 support and below to extend the corrective pattern from 111.14 high. While a break of 109.96 will resume the rebound from 107.51. Breaking 111.14 to resume larger up trend is not expected. So upside potential is limited for the near term.

Elsewhere

Germany Ifo business climate will be the highlight of European session. Later in the day, US will release new home sales.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6333; (P) 0.6356; (R1) 0.6379; More...

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays below 0.6444 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and downside breakout is expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.6284 will resume whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. However, firm break of 0.6444 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
00:30	AUD	Monthly CPI Y/Y Sep	5.60%	5.40%	5.20%
00:30	AUD	CPI Q/Q Q3	1.20%	1.10%	0.80%
00:30	AUD	CPI Y/Y Q3	5.40%	5.30%	6.00%
00:30	AUD	RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q3	1.20%	1.10%	1.00%
00:30	AUD	RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q3	5.20%	5.00%	5.90%
08:00	CHF	Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Oct			-27.6
08:00	EUR	Germany IFO Business Climate Oct		85.9	85.7
08:00	EUR	Germany IFO Current Assessment Oct		88.5	88.7
08:00	EUR	Germany IFO Expectations Oct		83.3	82.9
08:00	EUR	Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Sep		-1.70%	-1.30%
14:00	USD	New Home Sales Sep		684K	675K
14:00	CAD	BoC Interest Rate Decision		5.00%	5.00%
14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-0.5M	-4.5M
15:00	CAD	BoC Press Conference

Short Term view of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests that cycle from 9.11.2023 low is in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 9.11.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 27493.1 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 25994.2. The crypto currency then extended higher again in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) at 28582.4 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 26526.78 as the 90 minutes chart below shows. The crypto-currency has extended higher in wave ((iii)).

Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 27113.3 and dips in wave ii ended at 26825.8. Bitcoin then extended higher in wave iii towards 27972.8 and dips in wave iv ended at 27680.1. Final leg wave v ended at 39377,3 which completed wave (i). Pullback in wave (ii) ended at 28042.70. Bitcoin then extended higher again in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 30335.7 and wave ii ended at 29669.50. Wave iii higher ended at 35150 and pullback in wave iv ended at 32671.30. Final leg wave v ended at 35152 which completed wave (iii). Pullback in wave (iv) ended at 33250. Near term, expect Bitcoin to extend 1 more leg to end wave (v) of ((iii)), then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) and turns higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 26526.78 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Bitcoin(BTCUSD) 90 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

BTCUSD Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoAAz4trwkQ