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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6645; (P) 1.6719; (R1) 1.6793; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.6647 will extend the corrective fall from 1.7062 to 1.6259/6601 support zone. On the upside, firm break of 1.6887 resistance should confirm that correction from 1.7062 has completed at 1.6647. Further rally should be seen through 1.7062 to 1.7377 projection level.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.87; (P) 157.30; (R1) 158.01; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 156.57) will argue that fall from 159.75 is a larger scale correction. Deeper fall would be seen back towards 151.39 support. On the upside, break of 159.75 will resume larger up trend to 163.06 projection target.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96. This will remain the favored case as long as 151.39 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.73; (P) 183.32; (R1) 183.95; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 186.75 would target 55 D EMA (now at 182.31). Sustained break there will argue that it's already in a larger scale correction and target 176.29 support next. On the upside, break of 185.67 resistance will indicate that the pull back from 186.75 has completed. Further rise should then be seen through 186.75 to resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9557; (P) 0.9571; (R1) 0.9591; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and outlook stays bearish with 0.9601 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.9513 will resume the decline from 1.0095, towards 0.9407 low. However, break of 0.9601 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 0.9646 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the cross is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9818). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

The Bank of England may have little option but to raise rates again next week despite comments recently indicating the debate will be fairly balanced.

The UK labour market figures offer something for everyone on the face of it but under the circumstances, BoE hawks will likely be more emboldened by the figures than the doves.

Employment figures fell for a second month as the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% which may be viewed as mildly encouraging to policymakers hoping to see more slack in the labour market. But much more progress will be needed if we're going to see the vote swing in favour of a hold.

Especially when wage growth is continuing to rise, with average earnings not only rising to 8.5%, including bonuses but the June figure also being revised higher to 8.4%. I don't see how the MPC can see that and even consider pausing on the whole and markets seem to agree, with a 25 basis point hike almost 80% priced in. What comes after that is harder to judge at this stage and will depend on how the data performs over the next two months.
Oil rally slows but Brent remains above $90

Oil prices are creeping higher again on Tuesday, with Brent trading around $91 despite there being a mixed view on the economic outlook. As we heard from the European Commission yesterday, growth in the euro area is going to be relatively minor, with Germany struggling to avoid another recession.

The UK has shown a lot more resilience than anticipated but still faces recession risks and marginal growth at best. People are feeling a little more optimistic about the US, with last week's services PMI backing that up, but even here there are significant downside risks. While China is a big unknown with efforts to stimulate the economy being targeted and far from guaranteed to boost growth substantially.

That said, one thing we're guaranteed is supply to continue to be restricted until the end of the year at least following the recent announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The rally has stalled a little over the last week but there are few signs of a corrective move lower at this stage and therefore I suspect we'll hear a lot more $100 oil chat before long.

Gold remains soft ahead of the US inflation report

Gold rallies over the last couple of days have been far from encouraging, with gains being quickly unwound to end the session far from the highs. That's despite the dollar easing on Monday which appeared to support gold prices but clearly not for that long which could be a bearish signal.

The greenback is slightly higher this morning which is weighing on the yellow metal a little. While you could read more into price action over the last couple of sessions, I'm inclined not to with the US inflation data due tomorrow. That will likely drive the next move and could heavily influence what the Fed does next week.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0719; (P) 1.0739; (R1) 1.0770; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as consolidation continues above 1.0685. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0944 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.0685 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support zone next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Strong support could be seen from 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609) to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Break of 1.0944 will indicate the start of the second leg, and target retest of 1.1274. However, sustained break of 1.0609/0634 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0199.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2471; (P) 1.2509; (R1) 1.2547; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2443 is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2618 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.2443 will resume the decline from 1.3141 and target 100% projection of 1.3141 to 1.2618 from 1.2799 at 1.2276.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Strong support would be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, and consolidation from there is set to extend, until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8895; (P) 0.8911; (R1) 0.8925; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral as consolidation from 0.8943 is extending. While deeper pull back cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained above 0.8743 support to bring another rally. Break of 0.8943 will extend the rise from 0.8551 to 0.9146 cluster resistance.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8551 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rally would be seen to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160). Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.91; (P) 146.59; (R1) 147.27; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 147.88 is extending. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, outlook remains bullish with 144.43 support intact. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6389; (P) 0.6420; (R1) 0.6461; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6356 continues. While stronger recovery might be seen, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.6356 will resume larger fall to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.