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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8047; (P) 0.8065; (R1) 0.8080; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 0.7828 are developing into a corrective pattern. Risk is mildly on the upside as long as 0.7990 support holds. Firm break of 0.8123 will target 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.7812. However, break of 0.7990 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7877 support.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.11; (P) 156.53; (R1) 157.33; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 154.33 is in progress for retesting 157.88. Decisive break there will will target 158.85 structural resistance. Firm break there will be a strong bullish sign, and should target a retest on 161.94 high next. On the downside, below 155.73 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But risk will stays mildly on the upside as long as 154.33 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Key takeaways

• AUD is leading the FX space on renewed RBA hawkishness, while the JPY remains the weakest major currency as BoJ signals flexibility on policy.
• USD/JPY’s recent five-day rally is losing steam, with momentum indicators and resistance confluence pointing to a potential minor bearish reversal.
• A break below 156.00 on the USD/JPY could open the way toward 155.35 and 154.40, while a move above 157.15 would negate the downside setup.

In the FX market, a “K-shaped” performance has emerged with the AUD rallying and outperforming among the major currencies against the US dollar due to the hawkish monetary policy guidance from the Australian central bank, RBA. In today’s Asia session, AUD extended its gains by 0.1% after a 0.3% return seen on Tuesday, 9 December, towards a three-month high at 0.6650 (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

At the end of the spectrum, the Japanese yen weakened for the third consecutive session against the greenback (USD/JPY rallied by 1% on a 5-day rolling basis) due to mixed messages from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda’s speech on Tuesday, 9 December.

Ueda highlighted that the BoJ may ramp up government bond buying if long-term JGB yields rise rapidly, which appeared to be a signal that the BoJ is willing to tweak its existing policy after the BoJ ended its yield curve control programme in March 2024 that previously suppressed the rise in the 10-year JGB yield.

Interestingly, technical analysis suggests that the recent 5-day rally of the USD/JPY from its 154.40 minor swing low printed on 5 December 2025 has started to lose upside momentum that may lead to a potential minor bearish reversal on the USD/JPY.

Let’s unravel in greater detail.

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bearish with 156.00 as potential downside trigger

Fig. 2: USD/JPY major & medium-term trends as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the 157.15 key short-term pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY, and a break below 156.00 key near-term support (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a minor bearish reversal to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.35 and 154.40.

A break and an hourly close below 154.40 may kickstart another minor downtrend sequence to expose 153.70 (also the 50-day moving average) next in the first step (see Fig. 3).

Key elements

• Tuesday, 9 December 2025’s rally on the USD/JPY ex-post BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech has stalled at the pull-back resistance of a former medium-term ascending support from 29 October 2025 low, the minor swing high area of 24 November 2025, and close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor downtrend from 20 November 2025 high to 5 December 2025 low, all confluence at the 157.15 level.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bearish breakdown below a key ascending support after it exited from the overbought region (above 70). These observations suggest that the recent short-term upside momentum of the USD/JPY has eased.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A clearance above 157.15 invalidates the minor bearish reversal view for a further potential squeeze up for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 158.00/158.35.

• While some central banks are signalling that they have finished easing, the Fed intends to continue.
• The US dollar remains stable as the White House confirms the Fed’s independence.

In the Foreign Exchange market, an increasing number of key central banks are ending their easing measures. The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand have made it clear that they have finished their rate-cut cycles. Similar signals are expected from the Bank of Canada. The ECB feels comfortable with the current level of rates. As a result, markets are beginning to price in that the next step will be a tightening. This is leading to a strengthening of the world’s major currencies against the dollar. But the latter is not giving up without a fight.

The Fed is likely to cut rates for the third consecutive time in 2025, but as in the previous two cases, the USD index risks rising. The baseline scenario is a hawkish shift, where the rate cut will be accompanied by less dovish rhetoric on the outlook and hints of a pause in policy easing. Judging by the quotes, the probability of one rate cut in 2026 is rising in the futures market, while the chances of three cuts are falling. This allows the US dollar to remain stable amid the changing policy landscape.

In addition, the debt market is not buying into Donald Trump’s idea of flooding the FOMC with doves. Jerome Powell’s resignation and the potential dismissal of Lisa Cook will allow the White House to increase the number of its people on the Committee. This could lead to aggressive rate cuts and a weaker US dollar. Unfortunately, Treasury yields are higher than in September, when the Fed resumed easing. Traders do not believe that the rate will fall below 3.25%.

The White House itself is indirectly to blame for this. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Fed is not a one-person show. The chairman has only one vote there, just like everyone else. The leading candidate for the position, Kevin Hassett, has stated that he does not intend to bow to political pressure. If the US president told him to lower rates and inflation accelerated to 4%, he would not do so.

Most likely, the US administration is being disingenuous. The White House aims to create the appearance of Fed independence to avoid undermining investor confidence in the USD as the primary reserve currency. However, we believe that the policies of Donald Trump and the central bank may be more aligned than ever before, which mitigates the decline in yields and increases the risks of a weakening greenback.

The dollar index – recovery leg from 98.70 daily higher base (the bottom of pullback from 100.32 peak) slows on Wednesday, as traders await the verdict from Fed at the end of two-day policy meeting.

Markets widely expect a 25-basis points rate cut, but focus will be on signals about the central bank’s rate path in coming months.

The Fed projected two rate cuts in 2026 (in September) with main question whether the policymakers will stick to existing agenda or will take more dovish stance and signal stronger policy easing, which is President Trump’s favored scenario, as he is in the process of choosing a successor for Jerome Powell, who is going step down in early 2026.

However, decision of 25-based points rate cut should not be the key market driver, but any surprise from the Fed could spark stronger market action.

More dovish than expected, Fed projections should add pressure on dollar and subsequently boost gold, while opposite effects could be expected in case the policymakers take more hawkish stance.

Technical picture is mixed on daily chart as rising thick daily cloud continues to underpin, but positive impact is countered by strengthening bearish momentum, while MAs are in mixed setup, with immediate action being capped by falling converged 10/200DMA’s for the second straight day.

Res: 99.30; 99.51; 99.70; 100.00.
Sup: 98.90; 98.70; 98.60; 98.31.

EUR/USD climbed higher and tested the 1.1680 resistance. USD/JPY managed to reclaim 156.00 and might aim for more gains.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1680 pivot zone.
• There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 1.1640 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above 155.50 and 156.00.
• There is a bullish trend line forming with support near 156.30 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1550. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.1600 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 1.1600 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.1681, and the pair started a downside correction. There was a drop below 1.1650, and the pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1555 swing low to the 1.1681 high.

However, the bulls are active above 1.1620. On the upside, the pair is now facing bears near 1.1640 and 1.1650. There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance at 1.1640.

The next breakout region sits at 1.1680. An upside break above 1.1680 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1750. Immediate support is 1.1620. The first major key area of interest on the EUR/USD chart is near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 1.1585.

If there is a downside break below 1.1585, the pair could drop toward 1.1555. The next key breakdown area sits at 1.1520, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 154.35. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 155.00 against the Japanese Yen.

It settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 156.00. The upward move was such that the pair even tested 156.90. A high was formed at 156.93 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below 156.75.

The current price action is positive, and the pair seems to be aiming for more gains. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support near 156.30 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 154.34 swing low to the 156.93 high.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 156.90. The first key hurdle sits at 157.00. If there is a close above 157.00 and the RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 157.50. The next stop for the bulls might be 157.80, above which the pair could test 158.40 in the coming days.

On the downside, the first major support is near the trend line at 156.30. The next area of interest could be near 155.65, below which the pair could test the 61.8% Fib retracement at 155.35. Any more losses could open the doors for a move toward 154.35.

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The USD/JPY pair is consolidating near 156.57 on Wednesday, pausing after three consecutive days of gains. This stability comes despite a notable shift in rhetoric from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stated the central bank is drawing closer to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target – a strong signal that a policy tightening move could be imminent.

The market is now actively pricing in the possibility of a rate hike as early as next week’s BoJ meeting. Investors’ primary focus will be on Governor Ueda’s post-meeting comments, which are expected to shape the policy outlook for 2025.

The yen’s broader weakness is being fuelled by growing concerns over Japan’s public finances, exacerbated by expanded fiscal spending under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration. Furthermore, the yawning interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies continues to incentivise short positions against the yen, which remains one of the world’s lowest-yielding currencies.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY maintains its bullish structure following a strong impulse that propelled the price from 154.30 to the key resistance zone of 157.20–157.90. The pair is currently consolidating just below the 157.20 level, where selling pressure has previously emerged.

The price holding above the middle Bollinger Band confirms buyers retain overall control. The expansion of the upper band indicates elevated volatility and suggests the market is gathering strength for another attempt to breach resistance.

A decisive breakout and consolidation above 157.20 would open the path towards the 157.90–158.00 area. Should a correction unfold, the nearest significant support sits at 155.60. A break below this level would signal a deeper pullback, potentially targeting the major demand zone and the lower Bollinger Band near 154.30.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is undergoing a pullback after its recent surge to 157.20. The decline has found tentative support near the middle Bollinger Band, with the pair attempting to stabilise around 156.50.

The near-term structure remains bullish, supported by the price’s position above the middle Bollinger Band. Dynamic support is forming in the 156.00–156.10 zone, aligned with the indicator’s lower band. The Stochastic oscillator has turned down from overbought territory, confirming the current short-term corrective phase.

For the uptrend to resume, buyers must reclaim the 157.20 level, which would pave the way for a test of 157.90. Conversely, a sustained break below 156.00 would be the first clear sign of bullish exhaustion, increasing the probability of a deeper decline towards 155.60.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is at a critical juncture, caught between bullish technical momentum and a shifting fundamental backdrop for the yen. While the pair’s uptrend remains technically intact, the impending BoJ decision introduces significant event risk. A hawkish shift from the central bank could catalyse a sharp correction. In the near term, the 157.20 resistance and 156.00 support levels are pivotal; a breakout from this range will determine the next directional move.

On 2 December, we noted that the final month of the year is traditionally favourable for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), as:

→ since around the 1950s, December has been positive in more than 70% of cases;

→ the average monthly gain is approximately +1.0%.

Today, with traders worldwide focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, there is reason to highlight another statistic. According to media reports, in 20 out of 20 instances when equity markets were near record highs and the Fed cut rates, the S&P 500 rose over the following 12 months.

Given the current backdrop — proximity to all-time highs and expectations of rate cuts — it is possible that this could become the 21st such case.

An analysis of price action on the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) suggests that the stock market is reflecting nervous anticipation of the news, as the index is trading at roughly the same levels as at the start of December.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

From the demand side:

→ the price has managed to hold firmly above the 6785 level (which may act as support going forward) and has broken above a previously formed descending channel (shown in red);

→ an ascending channel formed in early December, which can be interpreted as cautious optimism ahead of the news.

From the supply side:

→ the late-October record high may act as psychological resistance;

→ yesterday’s decline (indicated by the arrow) suggests that bears are ready to act more aggressively if given a catalyst.

Overall, taking the above into account, it is reasonable to suggest that the S&P 500 market (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is in a “calm before the storm” phase. Be prepared for volatility spikes later today, starting from 22:00 GMT+3.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 207.84; (P) 208.39; (R1) 209.20; More...

GBP/JPY's break of 208.09 high confirms long term up trend resumption. Intraday bias stays on the upside for next near term target at 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 205.17 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.54; (P) 182.10; (R1) 182.96; More...

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed by breaking through 181.98 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 180.07 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside should be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 170.25) holds, even in case of deep pullback.