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Summary

Soaring gold prices and heavy overseas demand have pushed large volumes of physical gold out of the U.S., mechanically narrowing the trade deficit. But don’t mistake this for an economic improvement.

Gold transfers reflect asset reallocation under geopolitical stress, not real economic activity, which is why the Bureau of Economic Analysis largely strips it out of GDP. When gold is excluded, the trade deficit looks worse than the headline suggests.

All That Glitters Is Not Growth

From 2000 through 2020, the spot price of gold averaged less than $1,000 per ounce. In 2020, gold broke above $2,000 for the first time. By March 2025 it crossed $3,000, by October it surpassed $4,000, and today gold is trading near $5,000 per ounce.

Gold and other precious metals are now at- or near-record highs as investors and central banks seek protection from geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty, and declining real interest rates. Offering forward‑looking price guidance is outside the scope of this report. The boneyard of economists who have tried to forecast gold prices is already crowded enough without adding ours to the pile.

What matters for understanding gold right now is not the price forecast, but the composition of demand. The appetite for gold is increasingly being driven by large institutional buyers and ETFs, as well as by overseas investors. Some crypto‑related firms are also purchasing physical gold to back gold‑linked tokens.1 As a result, substantial quantities of gold are being shipped out of the United States.

This surge in precious-metals exports has mechanically narrowed the U.S. trade deficit. Under normal circumstances, a narrowing trade deficit would be supportive of measured GDP growth. In this case, however, appearances are misleading.

The reason is straightforward: most gold moving across borders reflects asset reallocation, not real economic activity. Non‑monetary gold trade does not represent the production of new goods or services, so it does not meaningfully contribute to GDP. Consequently, the recent “gold rush” will not show up as stronger economic growth, even though it is having a visible impact on headline trade statistics.

This distinction matters because it underscores why the apparent “normalization” in the trade deficit is anything but.

Why Gold Trade Is Largely Excluded From GDP

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is tasked with measuring economic production, not the reshuffling of existing assets. Gold generally serves one of two purposes: it is either used as an input into production (for example, jewelry or electronics), or it is held as a store of value (bullion, bars, and coins). The bulk of gold crossing borders lately falls squarely into the second category (Figure 1).

Because most non‑monetary gold trade represents investment flows rather than production, the BEA strips gold imports and exports out of GDP. Instead of relying on volatile trade flows, the BEA uses a simpler proxy for gold net exports: domestic gold production minus industrial use.2 Under normal conditions, this adjustment is small enough to go unnoticed. When gold trading surges, however, the wedge between headline trade data and GDP‑relevant activity can become large.

That is precisely what is happening now. Large swings in gold imports and exports are distorting the trade numbers without signaling any meaningful change in underlying economic activity.

What the Latest Trade Data Show

If non-monetary gold—along with a small handful of other investment‑driven categories—is excluded from both exports and imports, the trade deficit is actually wider than headline figures suggest by almost $12 billion (Figure 2).3 The gold trade has been masking ongoing imbalances rather than resolving them. A similar dynamic was at play in late 2024/early 2025, when imports of finished metal shapes surged ahead of expected tariff increases.

Two components are almost entirely responsible for the surge in gold exports today: bullion (unmarked or minimally processed gold) and gold bars.

Bullion exports have been running at more than twice their typical volume. Over the past three months, an average of roughly 75 metric tons of gold bullion has left the United States each month, compared with a post‑pandemic monthly average closer to 30 metric tons. While this series has always been volatile, recent outflows have clustered near the upper end of the historical range.

The move in gold bars has been far more dramatic. For several years through mid‑2025, gold bar exports averaged just 0.5 metric tons per month. That changed abruptly in late summer. Gold bar exports surged to approximately 11 metric tons in September—a more than sixteen‑fold increase—before jumping again to over 50 metric tons in October. Exports then collapsed back toward trend in November.

When combined with soaring prices, these volume swings become even more striking in dollar terms. A sixteen‑fold increase in the physical quantity of gold bars exported in September translated into roughly a twenty‑fold increase in their dollar value. In other words, the volatility in gold exports reflects not just higher prices, but unusually large movements of physical metal out of the country.

Bottom Line

Gold’s role in the recent trade data is a reminder that not all cross‑border flows are created equal. Capital moving to shelter looks very different from goods moving to market, even if both pass through the same statistical tables. The BEA’s treatment of non‑monetary gold is not a technical footnote—it is a recognition of that fundamental distinction.

For readers of the data, the takeaway is simple but important: a narrower trade deficit driven by gold exports is not evidence of renewed economic strength. It is evidence of caution. And in moments like this, separating signal from shine matters more than ever.

Endnotes

1 - Reuters and Bloomberg both quote interviews with Paolo Ardonio, the CEO of Tether, about adding several tons of physical gold to its storage sites in Switzerland.

2 - See "How Are Exports and Imports of Nonomonetary Gold Treated in BEA's National Economic Accounts?" for more detail.

3 - The BEA BOP-basis category of non-monetary gold adds the census-basis categories of non-monetary gold (end-use code 12260 for exports and 14270 for imports), numismatic coins (end use 41300), and finished metal shapes (end use 12300 for exports, 15200 for imports) and then a separate BOP adjustment for gold transactions not captured by the Customs Protection Bureau. Note, this last category is not something we proxy in our gold-adjusted trade balance in Figure 2.

• US NFP and CPI data awaited after Warsh’s nomination as Fed chief.
• Yen traders lock gaze on Sunday’s snap election.
• UK and Eurozone Q4 GDP data also on the agenda.
• China CPI and PPI could reveal more weakness in domestic demand.

Dollar recovers on Warsh nomination, upbeat ISM mfg PMI

The US dollar has entered a recovery mode and managed to outperform all its major peers this week, mainly driven by the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. During his term, between 2006 and 2011, Warsh was concerned about inflation and was against balance sheet expansion, and that’s why investors were surprised by Trump’s choice.

Having said that though, Trump is obsessed with aggressive rate cuts and Warsh may have shown signs of a different approach this time. In any case, with the ISM manufacturing PMI surprising to the upside, the prices subindex of the services report rising as well, but the ADP private employment report revealing less-than-expected jobs growth for January, investors remained convinced that the Fed may need to proceed with two quarter-point rate cuts this year.

NFP and CPI on tap amid bets of two Fed cuts in 2026

With that in mind, next week, the spotlight is likely to turn to the rescheduled NFP report on Wednesday, and Friday’s CPI data, both for January. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have accelerated to 68k from 50k, while the unemployment rate is forecast to have held steady at 4.4%. However, taking into account that private payrolls are expected to have increased to 70k from 37k, but the ADP report revealed only a mere 22k job gains in the private sector, the risks surrounding the NFP print may be tilted to the downside. The slide in the employment subcomponent of the ISM services PMI is adding extra credence to that view.

A report contrasting Fed Chair Powell’s view that the downside risks to the labor market are diminishing could prompt investors to add to their rate cut bets and thereby bring the US dollar under some selling pressure.

However, whether the slide will be sustained or not will likely depend on Friday’s CPI data. The headline rate held steady at 2.7% in December, decently above the Fed’s objective of 2%, and with the prices subindices of both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs suggesting accelerating inflation, the risks of the CPIs may be tilted to the upside. Thus, should the CPI data reveal further stickiness in consumer prices, the US dollar is very likely to reverse and recover at least a portion of any NFP-related losses.

The US retail sales will be released on Tuesday, ahead of both the NFP and CPI reports.

Will a Takaichi win take Dollar/Yen back to the 160.00 area?

The dollar gained the most ground against the yen, which came under pressure after Japan’s PM Takaichi talked about the benefits of a weaker yen. The Japanese currency has staged a stellar recovery following concerns about a coordinated US-Japan intervention, with dollar/yen falling from around 159.00 to 152.00, before rebounding on Takaichi’s remarks back above the 157.00 zone.

Now yen traders will likely lock their gaze on Japan’s snap election on Sunday. Takaichi called for elections in an attempt to strengthen her hand in parliament and thereby be able to proceed more easily with her fiscal plans.

During the first month of the year, polls showed a drop in popularity of the new prime minister with only one of them pointing to a more-than-70% support compared to three in December. However, the remaining showed a still strong 60%.

Thus, should the current coalition confirm expectations of a landslide, the yen could give back more of its intervention-related gains, on speculation of large spending and bigger pressure on the BoJ to proceed more slowly with future interest rate hikes. That said, should dollar/yen approach the 160.00 zone again, intervention warnings or new rate checks could be possible, limiting further advances.

On the contrary, if Takaichi’s coalition does not secure a majority, the yen could strengthen as she pledged to step down. Political uncertainty could weigh on Japan’s stock market, and the yen could eventually attract safe-haven flows, supported by expectations of a less expansionary fiscal policy and a more hawkish BoJ stance down the road, even if there is an initial delay until a new governing coalition is formed.

As BoE rate cut chances grow, GDP data enter the spotlight

From the UK, the first estimate of Q4 GDP will be released, alongside the monthly GDP print for December and the industrial and manufacturing production rates for the same month.

On Thursday, the Bank of England kept interest rates untouched at 3.75%, but the voting pattern revealed that the decision was a close call. Four members voted for a rate cut and five for no action, which means that only one official is needed to change his/her mind at one of the upcoming meetings for a rate cut to be delivered.

Officials remained willing to further reduce interest rates, with Governor Bailey noting that disinflation is on track and ahead of schedule, which allows scope for some further easing if the outlook evolves in line with the Bank’s projections.

This prompted investors to add to their rate cut bets, assigning a nearly 50% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming decision on March 19. By the end of the year, they expect two rate cuts, similar to the Fed.

Thus, with the economy slowing down and the third quarter of 2025 undergoing sluggish growth, another round of soft data for Q4 could increase the chances of a March rate cut, pushing the British pound lower. However, it is worth mentioning that the improvement in the PMI data during the last three months of the year compared to Q3, is tilting the risks to the upside. The further PMI increases in January point to a healthier start of the new year.

EZ GDP on tap amid comments about strong Euro

Euro traders will also have to digest preliminary GDP data for Q4, due to be released on Friday. The ECB also kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, providing little new information in the accompanying statement. President Lagarde expressed once again the view that the Eurozone economy is doing well but added that a stronger euro could bring inflation down beyond current expectations. On Friday, ECB policymaker Kazaks said that a material strengthening of the currency could trigger a monetary policy response.

Thus, a GDP data set pointing to some weakness during the last quarter of 2025 could enhance concerns that the strong currency may have hurt the economy even more at the turn of the year, and although market participants are not assigning any meaningful chance of a rate cut down the road, they may start considering it.

China CPI and PPI data also on the agenda

Elsewhere, China’s CPI and PPI data for January are due to be released during Wednesday’s Asian session. The world’s second largest economy grew 5.0% in 2025, driven by the nation’s effort to achieve record exports to the rest of the world, which led to a record trade surplus.

However, weakness in the domestic parts of the economy persisted, with retail sales growing only 3.7% and property investment dropping by 17.2%. Although the CPI entered into positive territory in October and accelerated in November and December, the headline PPI rate has been in negative territory since November 2022. Perhaps manufacturers are keeping prices low to stay competitive amidst US President Trump’s tariffs. That said, further deflationary prints could raise concerns about the profitability of such firms and thereby their contribution to the broader economy.

In such a case, the aussie could pull back a bit, but with the RBA turning more hawkish than other major central banks, and actually raising interest rates this week, any retreat in aussie/dollar may be limited and short-lived, especially if the greenback comes under pressure due to potentially weak nonfarm payrolls.

In the US, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair was received positively by markets, as the USD regained ground and precious metals turned lower this week. While Warsh has occasionally sided with Trump in calling for lower rates in the US, we still think his nomination should reduce concerns regarding the Fed's independence. This week also brought a string of labour market data that all surprised on the downside. The ADP data showed US employed increased by 22k private sector jobs in January (consensus: +48 k). The Challenger report showed more job cuts than expected in January and the JOLTs job opening came in at 6.5m in December (consensus 7.2m). Hence, the US ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to just 0.87 in December. Such cooling is usually a good predictor for weakening wage growth and may be a concern for the private consumption outlook and, all else equal, supports the case for earlier cuts from the Fed. On the other hand, the ISM manufacturing surprised significantly positively rising to 57.1 in January from 47.4 while the services index was as expected at 53.8 (cons: 53.5, prior 53.8). The jobs market report scheduled for Wednesday will thus be very important to follow.

In the euro area, inflation declined as expected to 1.7% y/y in January from 2.0% y/y while core inflation was slightly weaker than expected at 2.2% y/y (cons: 2.3% y/y). The decline in headline inflation was well expected due to a significant base effect on energy inflation, which was the main reason for the decline. Yet, a weaker-than-expected services inflation print of 0.15% m/m s.a. means that the January report provided a dovish signal for the ECB. Despite inflation falling below target the ECB decided to leave its key policy rates unchanged with the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, as widely expected by markets and consensus. Lagarde accentuated the positive factors of the economy such as low unemployment while downplaying the role of the inflation undershooting and strengthened euro. For further information, see ECB Review - Accentuate the positive, 5 February.

In the UK, the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% in an unexpectedly narrow vote split of 5-4, which was a dovish surprise. In their report, they concluded that the economic outlook for the UK involves less growth and inflation than previously anticipated. This also entails that we continue to aim for the next rate cut in April but also pencil in another cut in November. For details, see Bank of England Review, 5 February.

In China, the January PMIs were a mixed bag. The official NBS PMI manufacturing dropped 49.3 (consensus 50.1) from 50.1 whereas the private RatingDog PMI manufacturing increased to 50.3 (consensus 50.0) from 50.1. The details show the difference was due to export orders. However, the PMIs do not change the picture of a Chinese economy that continues to muddle through in a two-speed fashion with strong exports and tech developments amid weak domestic demand.

Next week focus turns to the US job market report, Q4 employment cost index, retail sales, and January CPI. We expect 60K new jobs and CPI at 2.4% y/y in January. In Asia, the Japanese election this Sunday is important for financial markets while China publishes home price data and CPI during the week. In Europe, we receive the first euro area employment data for 2025Q4 and UK GDP.

Full report in PDF. 

• Precious metals rebounded, but remain expensive relative to early 2026 levels
• Gold’s rally was not driven by falling rates or rising inflation expectations
• Geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty boosted safe haven demand
• Downside appears limited, but upside momentum is likely to slow

Partial rebound, but valuations remain elevated

The precious metals market has seen a partial rebound after a sharp correction, but this has not fundamentally changed the picture of still elevated valuations. Gold remains more than 12 percent above its levels at the start of 2026, while silver is around 4 percent higher. In silver, the recent selloff pushed prices to new early February lows before only a modest rebound followed. The scale of the earlier rally keeps the question of how durable the correction really is firmly on the table.

Spot price chart for gold and silver, source: Bloomberg

A rally detached from classic macro drivers

What makes the current situation unusual is that the strong rise in gold prices was not supported by traditional macroeconomic factors. Real interest rates have not fallen materially, and long term inflation expectations in the United States remain stable, slightly below 2.5 percent. Markets are pricing in only two further rate cuts to around 3 percent by year end. At the same time, fundamental valuation models suggest that even after the recent pullback, gold is still priced roughly 2000 dollars per ounce above levels justified by macro fundamentals over the past three years, increasing vulnerability to further corrections.

Safe haven demand driven by global uncertainty

The main driver behind this overvaluation has been gold’s growing role as a safe haven. The war between Russia and Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and a more confrontational stance by China towards Taiwan have significantly raised global uncertainty. The freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves has also heightened concerns among central banks about the safety of reserve assets. These factors were reinforced by the unpredictability of US economic policy under Donald Trump, including pressure on the Federal Reserve, aggressive trade policies, and rising fiscal risks, which undermined confidence in traditional safe assets.

Limited downside, but slower gains ahead

Recent price action shows that even a partial easing of uncertainty can halt rallies and trigger profit taking. Still, a sharp collapse in gold prices appears unlikely, as recent months have shown that declines are quickly used as buying opportunities, including by central banks. In the medium term, the most likely scenario is price stabilisation in gold and silver, followed by a moderate recovery, with higher volatility and clearly slower gains than at the start of the year.

Canada's economy lost 25k jobs in January (-0.1% month/month), weaker than consensus expectations for a 5k increase. The details were healthier, with full-time positions rising 45k, while part time tumbled 70k. Since January 2025, full time positions are up 149k, while part-time roles have fallen by 14k.

The unemployment rate tumbled back to 6.5% from 6.8% in December. The unemployment rate was dragged lower by 119k people leaving the labour force. This brought down the labour force participation rate by 0.4 percentage points to 65.0% – its lowest level since May 2021. Importantly, StatCan noted that reasons for not participating in the labour market were little changed from last year, with the exception of youth aged 15 to 24 being more likely to be attending school.

Job gains were concentrated in information, culture and recreation (+17k), business, building and other support services (+14k) agriculture (+11k) and utilities (+4.2k). The biggest losses were in manufacturing (-28k), educational services (-24k) and public administration (-10k).

Wage growth slowed again in January, with average hourly wages up 3.3% versus a year ago (3.4% in December).

Key Implications

Was this good news or bad news? The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 6.5% - its lowest level since September 2024. However, the economy still shed 25K jobs. It was thanks to an even larger decline in the labour force that the overall job market got tighter. This is a trend to keep an eye on. Canada's population is expected to shrink in 2026, meaning a smaller pool of available workers. Under these conditions the unemployment rate can continue to fall even if Canada is losing jobs.

One report is unlikely to move the needle for the Bank of Canada. The unemployment rate suggests the labour market is better than expected – but not necessarily tight. An unemployment rate of 6.5% is still above a long-term level associated with stable inflation. Coupled with the uncertainty about the supply side of the economy, and the prospects for trade, the BoC is likely content to watch things play out.

Markets

“Zero. Zip. Nada.” An overlooked speech by Fed governor Waller gets more attention. Last week he explained why he dissented against the most recent Fed decision, arguing in favor of a 25 bps rate cut. His main argument is continued weakness on the labour market: “Despite ticking down in its most recent reading, the unemployment rate has risen since the middle of last year. Payroll gains in 2025 were very weak. Compared to the prior ten-year average of about 1.9 million jobs created per year, payrolls increased just under 600,000 for 2025. And, last year's data will be revised downward soon to likely show that there was virtually no growth in payroll employment in 2025. Zero. Zip. Nada.” The argument gained traction yesterday following disappointing (second tier) US labour market data. Weekly claims ticked up more than expected (231k from 209k), January Challenger job cuts showed the worst January layoffs since January 2009 (108k job cuts, up from 36k in December) and downwardly revised JOLTS job openings declined further in January to their lowest level since September 2020 (6542k). In hindsight, the weak US labour data probably weren’t given the proper weight in explaining yesterday’s risk-off correction. The numbers came amidst the BoE & ECB policy decisions, the AI spending & valuation debate, the potentially disrupting impact from agentic AI and the highly volatile situation on other hyped assets like several commodities or crypto. It’s probably wise to keep yesterday’s reaction (function) in mind when delayed January payrolls (including revisions) will be published next week on Wednesday. Compared to the end of last week, a next Fed rate cut is now fully discounted by the June instead of the July policy meeting. Risks of a further repositioning are rising, especially when the market smells something like a job recession. On Friday, January US inflation number will highlight progress on the other part of the Fed’s dual mandate. Overall, risk markets try to get their nerves back today after a panicky week with dip-buyers showing up. The EuroStoxx50 rebounds 0.9% with US equity markets opening about 1.0% stronger. Crypto and (precious) metals also trade off the sell-off lows amid an empty eco calendar. Daily changes on US and European yield curves are limited to 1 bp with EUR/USD holding around 1.18 and EUR/GBP around 0.87. JPY holds near this week’s weakest levels going into parliamentary elections. A strong LDP-victory might cause jitters on Monday morning and test the Ministry of Finance’s resolve to enter the FX market if needed. All eyes will in such scenario also be on the NY Fed which was rate checking to support the Japanese MoF mid-January when USD/JPY came dangerously close to the 160-handle.

News & Views

The ECB’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters (SPF) showed few changes in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025. Respondents see HICP inflation at 1.8% this year, 2% in 2027. The first estimate for 2028 is set at 2.1%. 2026 growth is seen slightly stronger at 1.2% and is expected to improve to 1.4% and 1.3% in 2027 & 2028. Forecasters expect unemployment to gradually ease over the 2026/28 horizon (6.3%, 6.2%, 6.1% respectively). A summary of recent contacts between the ECB staff and non-financial companies pointed at gradually increasing business momentum and confidence, with growth still primarily driven by services. Reports from industry activity were mixed. Growth in consumer spending on services continued to outpace growth in spending on goods, but retailers reported disappointing spending in late 2025. The investment outlook improved. Manufacturers point to order books for projects related to electrification, data centers, energy and defense. Digital services also see strong demand growth. Global trade was proving resilient to US tariffs, but EMU net trade suffered from trade diversion. The employment outlook remained lackluster amid a strong focus on cost-cutting and the AI threat. Growth in selling prices had remained moderate as also wage growth is expected to slow (2.7%this year from 3.2% last year).

Canadian employment declined by 24 800 in January while a small rise was expected. However, the decline was only due to part-time work (-69.7k). Full-time employment rose 44.9k. In a broader perspective, overall employment still was up 134k compared to the same month last year. Despite lower monthly employment, also the unemployment rate declined from 6.8% to 6.5% (lowest since September 2024) The Labour force participation rate declined 0.4% to 65% as fewer people were looking for work. Hourly wage growth of permanent workers slowed to 3.3% from 3.7%. Today’s data won’t change Bank of Canada’s neutral policy bias.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1761; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1808; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral again with current recovery. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1731) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2 psychological level, and target 1.1576 support. On the upside, above 1.1870 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 1.2081. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7753; (P) 0.7771; (R1) 0.7799; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7816 will resume the rebound from 0.7603 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 0.7896). But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8166) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.60; (P) 156.97; (R1) 157.41; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. Rise from 142.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Above 157.33 will target 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper retreat. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.59) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3472; (P) 1.3575; (R1) 1.3631; More...

GBP/USD recovered after dipping to 1.3507 and intraday bias it turned neutral again. On the downside, below 1.3507 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3483). Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger scale correction, and target 1.3342 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3732 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3867. Firm break there will resume larger up trend towards 1.4284 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is resuming by breaking through 1.3787 high. Further rally should be seen to 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.