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Canadian Dollar is one of the month’s top performers as markets grow increasingly confident that the BoC has concluded its easing cycle and entered a prolonged pause. Expectations for a steady hold tomorrow are well-priced, and confirmation from Governor Tiff Macklem could open additional upside for Loonie, particularly in crosses.

The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged after nine cuts over the past 17 months. Macklem signaled in late October that policymakers may be done reducing rates after lowering the policy rate to 2.25%. While the bank continues to stress that the economy is undergoing a “difficult transition” due to structural damage from the U.S. trade conflict, it has also noted that monetary policy has limited room to stimulate demand while keeping inflation anchored.

Incoming data since then have strengthened the case for a hold. Q3 GDP grew at a 2.6% annualized pace versus the BoC’s projection of 0.5%. Employment rose by 54k in November, extending the steady gains seen in September and October. Underlying inflation remains above the 2% target and risks proving stickier than the bank would prefer. These developments reinforce the conclusion that the easing cycle has run its course.

Markets will focus on whether Macklem explicitly affirms this long-pause stance in the statement and press conference. Clear communication on this front could further underpin CAD strength into early 2026.

Technically, EUR/CAD's fall from 1.6456 resumed by breaking through 1.6138 support last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, the decline is likely correcting the whole rise from 1.4483. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.6201) holds. Next target is 100% projection of 1.6465 to 1.6138 from 1.6317 at 1.5990.

Decisive break there will solidify this near term bearish case and bring downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 1.5788 next.

Nevertheless, in the picture, strong support is likely to be seen between 38.2% retracement of 1.4483 to 1.6465 at 1.5708 and 55 W EMA (now at 1.5780) to contain downside and bring rebound.

The Japanese Yen rout shows no signs of abating, pushing the USD/JPY pair to yet another set of monthly highs despite tomorrow’s highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve, combined with expectations of another hike in Japan.

The decisive driver behind the Yen's continued weakness is the market's profound distrust of the Japanese monetary and fiscal coordination.

Japanese Yen against other major currencies – Generated with the help of Gemini

On one side, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government has pushed through gigantic stimulus with a stance the market deems fiscally reckless, leading to the original flash higher in USD/JPY – Reassuring words from the PM haven't had the best reception.

On the other side, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is desperately trying to signal a normalization shift.

In recent remarks, Ueda emphasized that the "certainty of the BoJ’s outlook materializing is increasing gradually," and that current policy remains "accommodative," even after previous minor adjustments.

Still, Traders deem the divergence in both policies not being sustainable and leading to a confidence extinction.

Even if the Bank of Japan hikes, how much can they really hike?

The Yen's safety will be contingent on not just a hike, but a more stable and decisive tightening cycle.

Also, keep a close eye on reactions to the Dollar tomorrow while Powell speaks!

USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

What was thought to have been a top in the currency pair now looks like a healthy pullback.

As the daily RSI went from overbought to neutral, bulls resurfaced strongly and are making a statement in the price action and are fully back in control.

The only way for bears to have a case here would be if a mean reversion move towards the close would bring the action back within the 156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance.

But things are not looking in this direction right now.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

USD/JPY 4H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Look at how clean the September Channel got respected on the recent rebound.

USD/JPY technical levels of interest:

Support Levels:

• 155.00 Pivot Zone
• Recent Lows 154.40
• 154.00 Psychological Support
• 50-Day MA 153.00
• 150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA
• 146.00 August Range Main Support

Resistance Levels:

• 156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance (breaking)
• 157.90 to 158.90 Yearly Resistance
• 157.895 Recent Highs
• 2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.00
• 1990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.00

1H Chart

USD/JPY 1H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current move does not look like it's about to stop.

• A mini-resistance is coming up right above 157.00 and will be one of the two final points for sellers to appear again.
• The other one naturally being 157.895, the recent highs.

Momentum is very overbought which may prompt some stoppage, but with buyers disregarding tomorrow's number, I wouldn't be surprised to see continuation here.

A big part of the longer-run outlook for the pair will be dependent on what happens at tomorrow's FOMC event.

The second most important event will be the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19.

Don't just watch the rate decision, keep a close eye on communications from the Central Banks!

Safe Trades!

Metals have completed yet another round of high-pace rally to new highs since the US government reopened and NY Fed’s Williams delivered his extra-dovish comments.

After hawkish fears failed to materialize into real corrections in the bullions, traders were eager to push for such squeezes yet again.

But with Gold failing to breach new all-time highs on this run, the attention is caught up in industrial metals, which have outperformed all precious peers (palladium, platinum, and gold).

Metal Performance since Enc-October 2025. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current leaders of the surge are Copper and Silver, which are heavily benefiting from their extreme necessity in the AI components creation and electrification megatrends.

Silver, in particular, has seen its price nearly double over the last twelve months and has recently surged to a record settlement of $59.14 an ounce.

The yellow metal is currently stuck in a narrow range and Silver keeps testing its highs. Both are awaiting tomorrow afternoon's FOMC decision before making their next definitive move. Gold’s direction will inevitably drag other metals with it.

Today's analysis will focus on a Silver intraday chart and take a look at Gold to see if the upcoming FOMC (particularly communications during the speech) has the potential to push prices higher, what could happen depending on hawkish and dovish tones, and what technical targets are now in play.

Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart and Technical Levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Prospects for Silver were scary after last month's double-top formation.

But as seen throughout the year, when metals are racing higher while the US dollar heads lower, a general sign of currency balancing and risk-management perspectives from global Central Banks encourages the spread of further commodity demand.

Reaching some new highs last Monday, Silver has maintained its high-range consolidation throughout the entire week (between $56.60 to $58.50).

Ongoing sideways action at the highs allows overbought RSI levels to retreat while conserving higher chances of an upside breakout. Still, to keep an eye on the fundamental background, watch for these elements:

If Powell's speech (starting at 14:30 E.T. tomorrow) makes mentions of a stressed labor market picture and/or if he makes allusions to more work to be done on rates, new all-time highs can easily be expected – Silver could spike between $60–$62.

On the other hand, mentions of temporary readjustments in data, one-time reductions in labor, a "cut-and-see" approach, or anything of the sort will hurt metal demand quite harshly – a test of the previous all-time highs of $54 to $55 would make sense. If hawkish repricings see further strength, low $50s could also be visited.

Keep an eye on 2026 cuts: The more cuts, the more fuel for the "Everything rally", and vice versa.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $60
• 2025 record $55.48
• $52 to $53 mini-resistance
• $51.18 session highs
• Potential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)
• Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)

Support Levels:

• $48.30 to $49 support
• $47 low of potential daily channel
• $45.55 October 28 lows
• $43.00 to $45.00 Weekly pivot
• $39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support
• 2012 Highs Support around $37.50

Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart and technical levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Gold sacrificed some current momentum to hold a more balanced approach ahead of the FOMC.

Moving sideways since reaching some new highs in end-October, the yellow metal could be forming an ascending triangle, a very bullish pattern.

In the case of an upside break, take the leg of the triangle (its height – $250 in this pattern) and use it as a Measured Move target which could point to $4,550 in the Bullion.

Do not forget that patterns don't mean much before they play out, and for them to play out, traders will await tomorrow's meeting.

With RSI right back at neutral (and bouncing higher from there), there is space for breakouts; expect explosive price action!

Similarly to Silver (and same for all metals), the direction of the breakout will be highly dependent on Powell's tone tomorrow – The main catalyst for continuation (or reversal) for all Markets!

Levels to watch for Gold (XAU) trading:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time High resistance $4,300 to $4,400
• Ascending triangle highs: $4,250 to $4,260
• $4,380 Current all-time Highs
• Fib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575

Support Levels

• Support, 8H 50-period MA and Triangle bottom $4,140 to $4,150
• Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)
• $3,700 consolidation Support
• $3,500 Major Support

Safe Trades!

The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index edged higher in November, rising to 99.0 from 98.2 in the previous month. Business uncertainty, meanwhile, increased modestly, with the uncertainty index rising by 3 points to 91— below the 12-month average of 94.

Of the ten subcomponents in the index, six rose during the month, one was unchanged, and three moved lower. Small businesses felt more pessimistic about the economy (-5 points) and future credit conditions (-2 points). Plans for capital outlays in the next six months also declined (-3 points). On the other hand, a greater share of businesses expected higher real sales (+9 points) and earnings (+2 points).

Labor market indicators showed a modest improvement on the month. The net share of businesses planning to increase employment rose by 4 points to 19%—the highest level since December 2024. However, actual hiring remained subdued, as the average change in employment per firm stayed negative for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the share of firms with unfilled job openings ticked up to 33% from 32% in the previous month, remaining within the range observed over the last five months and generally below its pre-pandemic average.

The net share of business owners raising average selling prices jumped by 13 points to 34%, marking the largest monthly increase in the survey’s history. Looking ahead, plans to raise prices in the next three months were unchanged. However, more businesses planned to raise workers’ compensation (+5 points to 24%).

Key Implications

Small business optimism remained relatively stable in November, despite notable improvement in the sales outlook. Labor market indicators have also shown modest progress. After taking a step back during the government shutdown, hiring intentions continued to move higher—a trend that has persisted since May—with more businesses planning to raise wages in the next three months. Still, job openings remain relatively low and have generally been on a downward trend since the start of the year, reinforcing the “low hire, low fire” theme.

Inflationary pressures intensified last month. While one month does not make a trend, the large jump in the share of businesses raising prices in November cannot be fully dismissed. Although inflation reports have been delayed by the government shutdown, prior data have shown that inflationary pressures were broadening across goods categories, and it looks like small businesses are more willing to pass those through to consumers.

Markets

News that German parliament was set to approve a record €52bn in military procurement contracts next week extended the latest Bund sell-off immediately at the start of trading, resulting in new cycle/near term highs across the curve. Unlike the past few days, the move lacked technical momentum and triggered some return action. Yesterday’s hawkish Schnabel quotes didn’t gain traction in other public comments. ECB Lagarde has some “closing arguments” tomorrow before the central bank enters its pre-rate decision quiet period. We don’t expect her to back Schnabel’s views (endorsing market/survey expectations that rate hike will be the next ECB move). The EMU eco calendar was empty with December PMI’s (Dec 16) the next and final input before the final central bank gathering (Dec 18). German yields trade 0.7 bps (2-yr) to 1.5 bps (10-yr) lower with the belly of the curve slightly outperforming the wings. Today’s main event risk is the vote on the social security bill in French parliament after closing this report. Failure to pass it would imply a €30bn shortfall for the social security system alone instead of the envisioned €22bn in the bill. It would also endanger the timeline of passing the overall budget and put new question marks around the survival chances of PM Lecornu’s minority government. Risks are probably asymmetric with especially a failure to get the bill through parliament able to trigger a (euro-negative) market reaction.

The US yield curve shows a modest bull flattening with yields 0.6 bps (2-yr) to 2.5 bps (30-yr) lower. The latest NER pulse by ADP research showed private employers adding an average of 4.75k jobs/week for the four weeks ending November 22. The week’s positive number hints at an upswing in the labor market after four straight weeks of negative pulse estimates, though a closer look at the series shows a big negative number in the week ending October 25 dropping out of the equation. In the run-up to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, the figure failed to move the market needle. In FX space, EUR/USD remains numbed right in the middle of the trading range in place since summer (1.1650 area) while equity markets are treading water for a second session straight. UK Gilts outperformed, the curve bull steepening (up to -4 bps at 30-yr tenor) with weak November BRC retail sales painting a grim picture. EUR/GBP is equally unfazed at 0.8735. BoE policymakers appearing before a parliamentary hearing (Chair Bailey not involved) held close to their mixed personal views.

News & Views

Hungarian inflation slowed further in November from 4.3% to 3.8% Y/Y (vs 3.9% Y/Y expected). As such headline inflation returned within the target 3% +/- 1% tolerance band of the National bank of Hungary (MNB). On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.1% (vs flat in October). The MNB contributes the fall in the annual consumer price index primarily to slower price increases for fuel and unprocessed food (+9.8% Y/Y). At the same time, the MNB’s underlying inflation measures remained broadly unchanged in Y/Y-terms. Sticky-price inflation and core inflation excluding processed food was 5.4% Y/Y and 4.6% Y/Y, respectively. Price of tradables were unchanged M/M and eased slightly to 2.6% Y/Y. Markets services prices printed at 0.3% M/M and 7.2% Y/Y (from 7.4%). The MNB indicated that households’ inflation expectations remain at a higher level than during the period when the inflation target was achieved pre-Covid. The slowdown in inflation is at least partially due to government measures to cap the prices of some essential consumer prices. In this respect, today’s data probably won’t be enough for the MNB to change its bias that some policy tightness is still needed to address underlying inflationary pressures and financial stability. The forint regains a small part of yesterday’s correction after Fitch cut the rating outlook to negative (EUR/HUF 383.75)

US president Trump in an interview with Politico said that he didn’t promise Hungarian Prime Minister Orban a financial safety net of up to $20bn. Orban said the country would be able to activate such backup in case of speculation against the forint. Trump admitted that Orban had asked for the shield but didn’t give any concrete indication whether such assistance was still to be considered in the future.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1613; (P) 1.1643; (R1) 1.1668; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidations below 1.1681 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor with 1.1590 minor support intact. Corrective fall from 1.1917 could have completed at 1.1467. Above 1.1681 will target 1.1727 resistance first. Firm break there will solidify this case and bring retest of 1.1917 high. However, break of 1.1590 will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.1467 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1346) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3303; (P) 1.3325; (R1) 1.3344; More...

GBP/USD is extending consolidations below 1.3384 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.3178 support intact, further rally is still expected. As noted before, fall from 1.3787 should have completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. On the upside, above 1.3384 will target 1.3470 resistance. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8035; (P) 0.8061; (R1) 0.8093; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the upside for 0.8101 and then 0.8123 resistance. As noted before, price actions from 0.7828 are developing into a corrective pattern. Firm break of 0.8123 will target 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.7812. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7990 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.22; (P) 155.61; (R1) 156.31; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pullback from 157.88 could have completed at 154.33 already. Further rise should be seen to 157.88 and above. Firm break of 158.85 structural resistance will be a strong bullish sign, and should target a retest on 161.94 high next. For now, risk will stays mildly on the upside as long as 154.33 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Currency market dynamics have not shifted meaningfully as the session progresses, with the day’s relative performance table largely intact. Aussie remains firmly at the top, supported by the RBA’s hawkish hold earlier today. Governor Michele Bullock effectively shut the door on further easing and made clear that the next move could be a hike if some of recent inflation drivers prove more persistent than expected. Kiwi continues to follow as the second-strongest currency, underpinned by spillover from Aussie's strength while Loonie ranks third.

At the other end of the spectrum, Yen is still the weakest performer, facing renewed selling pressure even after comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Euro sits as the second-softest, while Dollar is the third weakest amid positioning ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC outcome. Sterling and Swiss Franc are holding in the middle of the pack.

The configuration reflects a mild risk-on undertone, though this is not yet translating into directional trades. With FOMC event risk looming, markets appear reluctant to commit. Speculation of a “hawkish cut” has grown, with some investors preparing for the possibility that the Fed signals a lengthy pause after tomorrow’s widely expected 25bps reduction.

One noteworthy development comes from U.S. trade policy. In a Politico interview, President Donald Trump suggested he could make further adjustments to tariffs to ease consumer prices, saying he had already done so in certain categories. “Prices are all coming down,” he said. “Everything is coming down.”

Meanwhile, Ueda told the Financial Times that Japan’s economy has weathered the impact of U.S. tariffs better than many expected. He noted that the “real side of the economy is doing OK,” with underlying inflation “continuing to rise” toward the BoJ’s 2% target.

So far, Ueda said, U.S. corporates have absorbed much of the tariff burden instead of passing costs aggressively to consumers. At the same time, Japanese car exporters have cut prices to absorb their share of tariff costs, helping stabilize auto export volumes and preventing job losses.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.09%. DAX is up 0.32%, CAC is down -0.54%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.011 at 4.517. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.006 at 2.856. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.14%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.29%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.37%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.14%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.008 to 1.965.

Silver eyes clean break above 60 as shallow pullback indicates underlying strength

Silver’s advance paused below the key projection near 60 psychological level, yet the pullback since has been modest, signaling no damage to the broader uptrend. The metal’s consolidation appears tied to caution ahead of the FOMC decision, with traders weighing talk of a “hawkish cut” and the possibility that the Fed may signal a longer pause after tomorrow’s move. Once the policy risk is cleared, Silver is expected to resume its uptrend.

Fundamentally, the backdrop remains supportive. ETF demand continues to surge, with total holdings rising by close to 590 metric tonnes last week. Inflows have increased in nine of the last eleven months, reflecting a sustained shift toward precious-metal exposure amid global uncertainty. November’s inflow of 15.7 million ounces—the strongest since July—further highlights steady investor engagement.

This pattern of strong ETF accumulation is expected to persist in the coming months. Safe-haven interest is being reinforced by geopolitical risks, while industrial consumption and supply-side tightness continue to bolster the structural case for higher prices.

Technically, outlook remains firmly bullish while 54.36 resistance turned support stays intact. The shallow nature of the recent retreat suggests consolidation rather than exhaustion, and price action remains well-positioned for a clean break above the 60 psychological level on next move. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.60 at 59.42 could prompt upside acceleration got 100% projection at 100% projection at 66.11.

RBA holds at 3.60% as Bullock signals no cuts, open to 2026 hike

RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% today, as markets had fully priced. But the tone from Governor Michele Bullock was firmer than expected, pushing back against speculation of early-2026 easing. “Given what’s happening with underlying momentum in the economy … it does look like additional cuts are not needed,” she said, adding that she does not see rate cuts “on the horizon for the foreseeable future.”

While Bullock confirmed the board did not discuss a rate hike as an active policy option today, she stressed members spent “quite a lot” of time examining what conditions might force them to lift rates next year. The discussion centered on the persistence of inflation and how much further the economy needs to cool before the board can be confident price pressures are returning to target.

Asked whether a February rate increase is plausible, Bullock did not rule it out. She said the RBA will monitor whether inflation remains sticky: if inflation fails to move back toward target, “then I think that does raise questions about how tight financial conditions are and the board might have to consider whether or not it’s appropriate to keep interest rates where they are or in fact at some point raise them.” Any decision, she added, will be made “meeting by meeting.”

The accompanying statement echoed this mildly hawkish stance, noting that recent data show inflation risks have “tilted to the upside.” Although the board judges part of the recent lift in underlying inflation as driven by temporary factors, policymakers admit uncertainty about the new monthly CPI series and acknowledge signs of a “more broadly based pick-up” in price pressures that may prove persistent.

Labor market indicators continue to suggest conditions remain “a little tight.” While the Wage Price Index has eased from its peak, broader wage measures are still running strong, and unit labor costs remain high.

For now, the RBA is signaling a steady policy stance, but the barrier to easing has grown significantly while the door to a potential hike in 2026 is now visibly open.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.22; (P) 155.61; (R1) 156.31; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pullback from 157.88 could have completed at 154.33 already. Further rise should be seen to 157.88 and above. Firm break of 158.85 structural resistance will be a strong bullish sign, and should target a retest on 161.94 high next. For now, risk will stays mildly on the upside as long as 154.33 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.