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Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.27; (P) 157.64; (R1) 158.04; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for 100% projection of 139.05 to 151.60 from 146.12 at 158.67. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 163.46 next. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 155.74 minor support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8601; (P) 0.8630; (R1) 0.8665; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside at this point. Rise form 0.8517 short term bottom is in progress. But still, as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds, fall from 0.8977 could still have another leg through 0.8517 before completion. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8717 will turn outlook bullish for 0.8977 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. It's seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201 (2022 low). But strong support should be seen from there to bring reversal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6426; (P) 1.6490; (R1) 1.6599; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside rise at this point. Sustained break of 1.6513 resistance will confirm that whole correction from 1.6785 has completed at 1.5846. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.6785 high next. On the downside, break of 1.6255 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rally resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9772; (P) 0.9797; (R1) 0.9815; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Another fall cannot be ruled out, to retest 0.9670 low. Sustained break there will resume the whole fall from 1.0095. Nevertheless, break of 0.9840 will resume the rebound from 0.9670 to 0.9878 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9918). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 96.4 to 95.3 in June, slightly below expectation of 96.0. Employment Expectations Indicator rose from 104.6 to 105.0. Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 21.6 to 20.4. Industry confidence fell from -5.3 to -7.2. Services confidence fell from 7.1 to 5.7. Retail trade confidence fell from -5.3 to -6.0. Construction confidence fell from -0.3 to -2.0. Consumer confidence improved from -17.4 to -16.1.

EU Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 95.1 to 94.0. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 103.9 to 104.3. Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 21.2 to 20.1. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI deteriorated in Germany (-1.9), Italy (-1.1), the Netherlands (-1.0) and Spain (-0.9), while it remained virtually unchanged in Poland (-0.1) and improved in France (+0.8).

Full Eurozone ESI release here.

Yesterday, a forum of heads of central banks was held, organized by the ECB, with speeches by Lagarde, Powell, Ueda, Bailey. In general (with the exception of Japan), according to bankers, they intend to maintain a tight monetary policy, not excluding new increases in interest rates, and plan that inflation will continue to decline.

Against the background of this information, the price of gold in dollars fell — perhaps because forecasts for lower inflation, according to market participants, reduce the value of gold as a "rescue" asset.

The XAU/USD price chart shows that it has made a bearish breakout of the ascending channel that has been in place since last fall and is approaching the psychological level of USD 1,900 per ounce. A rebound can be expected from this level — for example, to the resistance of 1,935 USD per ounce, which was still a pronounced support in early May.

The US 30 cash index bounced off its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and it is now hovering around the 33,754 area. The bulls have managed to record a series of higher lows and they are apparently looking ahead to the recent 34,577 high in their attempt to establish a more sustained bullish trend. However, they firstly have to overcome the current market lull that is clearly depicted in the relative tightening of the Bollinger bands.

Similarly, the momentum indicators appear to have taken a back seat at this juncture. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is hovering below its 25-threshold and signaling a range-trading market, and the RSI is moving sideways, a tad above its 50-midpoint. Even the stochastic oscillator appears to be embracing the quiet market conditions as it is gliding towards the middle of its range.

Should the bears decide to grab the market reins, they would try to overcome the arguably very important 33,348-33,600 area. The combination of the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the October 1, 2021 low and the October 13, 2023 upward sloping trendline means that the bears’ determination would really be put to the test there. Even lower, the 32,767-33,028 range will probably prove tougher to crack than currently anticipated.

On the other hand, the bulls would love a retest of the August 16, 2022 high at 34,280 but they firstly have to break the December 2, 2022 downward trendline. The December 13, 2022 high at 34,930 would be the next aim, a tad below the busier 35,091-35,496 range defined by the April 21, 2022 and May 10, 2021 highs respectively.

To sum up, with the path of least resistance being higher prices, the US 30 bears need to act soon if they wish to stage a significant pullback towards the 33,000 area.

WTI oil futures (August delivery) have been moving within their downward sloping channel for the last 10 months, creating a structure of lower highs. In the near term, the price has been directionless, slightly below the 70.00 region following a moderate pullback from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bearish forces are holding the upper hand. Specifically, the RSI has flatlined below its 50-neutral mark, while the MACD is softening below both zero and its red signal line.

Should the bears try to push the price lower, immediate support could be found at 67.00, which has held strong three times during the past two months. A dive below that floor could open the door for the double-bottom region of 64.20, which is also a 20-month low. Failing to halt there, the price could retreat towards a fresh multi-month low, where the December 2021 bottom of 62.25 could curb further downside attempts.

On the flipside, if the positive momentum intensifies and the price reverses higher, the recent resistance of 72.80 might be the first barrier for buyers to conquer. Crossing above that zone, WTI futures might face the June high of 75.00 before the March peak of 81.00 comes under scrutiny. Even higher, the price could revisit 83.40, its highest level in 2023.

In brief, WTI oil futures have been trading sideways in the past few daily sessions, waiting for developments that could provide fresh directional impetus. However, for the broader outlook to change, the price needs to escape its downward sloping channel.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0883; (P) 1.0928; (R1) 1.0957; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.0850) retains near term bullishness. Break of 1.1011 will resume the rally from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2577; (P) 1.2665; (R1) 1.2723; More...

Focus stays on 1.2628 support in GBP/USD. Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2531). Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already in correction to larger up trend and target 1.2306 support. Nevertheless, rebound from current level will retain near term bullishness for up trend resumption through 1.2847 later.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 1.2341) is a medium term bullish sign. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2306 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further to retest 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).