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USD/JPY's rally continued last week and matched 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32 already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 142.48 fibonacci level. on the downside, break of 138.22 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 135.42).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

GBP/USD gyrated further lower to 1.2306 last week, but recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. Further decline is expected as long as 1.2468 resistance holds. Decline from 1.2678 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.0351. Break of 1.2306 will target 1.1801 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2678 at 1.1789). On the upside, above 1.2468 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

In the long term picture, while the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has been strong, there is no clear indicate of long term trend reversal yet. As long as 1.4248 resistance holds (2021 high), long term outlook will remain neutral at best.

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9072 last week but lost momentum again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.8939 support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9039) should confirm that current rally is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.0146. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8818 at 0.9325. On the downside, though, break of 0.8939 will bring retest of 0.8818 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is expected to continue between 0.8756/1.0342. However, sustained break of 0.8756 will open up deeper fall back towards 0.7065 (2011 low).

AUD/USD's decline from 0.7156 resumed by breaking through 0.6563 support last week. A temporary low was formed after falling to 0.6489. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6604 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Break of 0.6489 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.6224.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3313 extended higher last week but failed to break through 1.3666 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Overall, price actions from 1.3976 are seen as a triangle consolidation pattern. Above 1.3666 will target 1.3860 resistance first. Firm break of 1.3860 will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 1.3976 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is expected to resume through 1.3976 after consolidation from there completes. On decisive break of 1.3976, next target will be 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3031) holds.

GBP/JPY's up trend continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. Nevertheless, break of 171.26 minor support will delay the bullish case, and turn bias to the downside for deeper retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 155.33 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 154.52) holds, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) could still extend higher at a later stage to 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY's rise from 146.12 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 151.60 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 153.64 projection level. On the downside, however, break of 148.83 will extend the corrective pattern from 151.60 with another falling leg, back towards 146.12 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 139.05 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, break of 149.76 (2014 high) argues that whole up trend form 94.11 (2012 low) is resuming. Sustained trading above 149.76 will pave the way to 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68, which is close to 169.96 (2008 high).

EUR/GBP had been losing downside momentum last week, but there is no sign of bottoming. Further fall is expected this week as long as 0.8717 resistance holds. Current fall from 0.8977 should target 100% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8614. On the upside, however, break of 0.8717 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. This is part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall would be seen through 0.8545 support. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8874 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, long term range pattern is extending. But rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is expected to extend at a later stage, to 0.9799 (2009 high).

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.6134 extended higher last week and the development argues that correction from 1.6785 has completed, after drawing support from 55 D EMA. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.6356 minor support holds, to retest 1.6785 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.6309 minor support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.6134 support again.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, it's still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Attention will be paid on the structure on the current rally to make an assessment later.

EUR/CHF dipped further to 0.9675 last week, but turned sideway just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Strong support should still be seen around 0.9670 to complete the whole corrective pattern from 1.0095. On the upside, firm break of 0.9760 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9878 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.9670 will pave the way back to 0.9407 low instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9945). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

In the long term picture, it's still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0515) and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.