Sample Category Title

UK PMI Manufacturing fell from 47.9 to 46.6 in April, a 4-month low. PMI Services jumped from 52.9 to 54.9, a 12-month high. PMI Composite rose from 52.2 to 53.9, also a 12-month high.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

"Flash PMI surveys signalled an acceleration of economic growth to the fastest for a year in April, building on a modest return to growth in the first quarter of the year.

"Growth is lopsided, however, with surging demand for services contrasting with an ongoing downturn in demand for goods. Even within the service sector, growth is dependent on consumers switching spending from goods to services and a revival of financial services activity, both of which are areas susceptible to the impact of higher interest rates and the ongoing cost of living squeeze. Business services and manufacturing are clearly struggling.

"However, for now the key takeaway is that the economy as a whole is not only showing encouraging resilience but has gained growth momentum heading into the second quarter, the latest PMI reading broadly indicative of GDP rising at a robust quarterly rate of 0.4%.

"Inflationary pressures have meanwhile continued to cool in manufacturing, but price pressures have picked up in services following the resurgence of demand.

"This combination of faster growth and elevated price pressures put a twelfth rate hike by the Bank of England an increasingly done deal when it next meets on 11th May, and will add to speculation that further hikes may be needed."

Full UK PMI release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0940; (P) 1.0965; (R1) 1.0996; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1075 is extending. Outlook remains bullish with 1.0830 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.1075 will will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441. However, firm break of 1.0830 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper decline to 1.0711 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2409; (P) 1.2439; (R1) 1.2472; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range below 1.545 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Another rise is in favor with 1.2343 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2545 will target 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2343 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8900; (P) 0.8944; (R1) 0.8967; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Another decline cannot be ruled out with 0.9070 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8858 will resume the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.9070 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.85; (P) 134.41; (R1) 134.82; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Some more consolidations could be seen below 135.13. But another rally will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6702; (P) 0.6737; (R1) 0.6777; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3455; (P) 1.3472; (R1) 1.3496; More....

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3299 extends higher today and focus is now on 1.3552 resistance. Firm break there will argue that fall form 1.3860 has completed. More important, that would also indicate completion of the three-wave corrective pattern from 1.3976 too. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.3860/3976 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing declined from 47.3 to 45.5 in April, hitting a 35-month low. On the other hand, PMI Services rose from 55.0 to 56.6, a 12-month high. PMI Composite rose from 53.7 to 54.4, an 11-month high.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: "The HCOB Purchasing Managers' Indices for the euro zone show a very friendly overall picture of an economy that continues to recover. However, a closer look reveals that growth is very unevenly distributed..."

"For the further, companies are rather positive not only in the services sector but also for the manufacturing sector. According to the companies surveyed, the reasons for this optimism include a diminishing fear of a resurgence of the energy crisis, supply chains that are functioning better again, and the expectation that inflation has passed its zenith. The latter is coupled with the hope that the ECB will pause its interest rate hikes soon."

Full Eurozone PMI release here.

Also released, Germany PMI Manufacturing fell from 44.7 to 44.0, a 35-month low. PMI Services rose from 53.7 to 55.7, a 12-month high. PMI Composite rose from 52.6 to 53.9, a 12-month high.

France PMI Manufacturing dropped from 47.3 to 45.5, a 35-month low. PMI Services rose from 53.9 to 56.3, an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 52.7 to 53.8, also an 11-month high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8804; (P) 0.8815; (R1) 0.8827; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 0.8864 will extend the rebound from 0.8717 to 0.8924 resistance. Further break there should confirm completion of the choppy decline from 0.8977, and should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6208; (P) 1.6285; (R1) 1.6348; More...

EUR/AUD rebounded ahead of 1.6216 support but stays below 1.6444. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6434 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. Rally from 1.4281 should target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6949. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.