Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6251; (P) 0.6311; (R1) 0.6351; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside for retesting 0.6169. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 138.2% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.5781.For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6539 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9707; (P) 0.9773; (R1) 0.9817; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 0.9534 should have completed with three waves up to 1.0092. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.9534/9630 support zone. On the upside, above 0.9872 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, medium term term bearishness is retained with failure to sustain above 55 day EMA (now at 0.9930). That is, larger down trend from 1.2348 (2021 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9534 low will confirm this bearish case. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0092 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1065; (P) 1.1243; (R1) 1.1335; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Corrective rebound should have completed with three waves up to 1.1644. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.0922 support first. Break there will target a retest on 1.0351 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1644 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is part of the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds. Parity would be the next target on resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1759 will confirm medium term bottoming, and open up stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2392).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.44; (P) 147.94; (R1) 148.78; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 151.93 is extending. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Since November 2021, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been experiencing a strong downtrend losing over 70% from its all-time high. Although, sellers may not have capitulated yet, current trends are "typical" for the end of bear markets. According to the data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, seller behavior suggests that a macro price bottom is forming.

Analyst: seller exhaustion "near" bear market lows

In the latest hint that Bitcoin's bear market is nearing its end, Glassnode has revealed that the network is currently weathering a "perfect storm" of low volatility and high on-chain losses.

The Seller Exhaustion Constant is calculated as the percentage of Bitcoin's total circulating supply in profit multiplied by its volatility over the last 30 days. According to the historical data, such lows are rare, having appeared seven times before. Six of those times, upside volatility led to the end of Bitcoin's bearish trend.

Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Constant chart. Source: Glassnode

Fed monetary policy might be the problem

The Federal Reserve approved a fourth-straight rate hike of 75 basis points on November 2 as part of its aggressive battle to bring down the inflation plaguing the US economy. The hike brings the central bank's benchmark lending rate to a new target range of 3.75% to 4%, making it the highest rate since January 2008.

In a news conference following the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the rising probability of an upcoming recession and acknowledged that the path to a soft landing had narrowed. Moreover, he added that the Federal Reserve had raised its target rate because "there are no signs of the inflation decrease."

The Fed may remain hawkish, and this is not surprising. Powell noted several times that macroeconomic indicators have yet to stabilize. The labor market is overheated, as well as the housing market, despite falling demand.

As a result, the US dollar has skyrocketed after the conference pressing risk assets, with US100 (NASDAQ) losing 3.7% and Bitcoin down 1.6%.

If the Fed remains committed to its hawkish monetary policy, demand for risky assets, including Bitcoin, will decline, putting pressure on the price.

CPI data will decide everything

Currently, markets are undecided in their expectations regarding the Fed's next move. According to analysts' expectations, there is a 52% chance for a 50-basis-point rate hike versus a 48% chance for a 75-basis-point increase.

On November 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October inflation data, which will most likely decide the next Fed’s move. If the actual data overperforms or meets the expectations of a 0.4% m/m inflation increase, the Fed will most likely take more hawkish steps at the December meeting. That, in turn, would be negative for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, if the inflation growth decreases, the Federal Reserve will likely slow down the pace of the key rate hikes and BTC may turn up.

Technical analysis

US dollar index, daily chart

The US dollar index has formed a bullish flag on the daily chart. If the price breaks the resistance trend line, the index will most likely reach 120.00 in the near-term pressing risk assets, including the crypto market.

BTCUSD, daily chart

Bitcoin price is squeezed between the 50- and 100-day Moving Average. Investors should wait for the breakout and follow the trend.

If the price breaks above the 100-day MA, it will most likely reach $24 000.00. On the other hand, if the price loses 50-day MA, it will drop to $17 700.00.

Moreover, a Bitcoin breakout above $24000 will open the way to $28500 for the buyers. At the same time, a breakout below $17 700 would mean a further BTCUSD decline toward $12 000 support.

USD/JPY:

The current general bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bearish. Overnight, USDJPY experienced some bullish momentum with the price closing above the 1st support line at 147.410 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is located. Price is currently trading at 148.117 at time of writing. If the overnight’s bullish momentum continues, expect USDJPY to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 149.393 where the 161.8% and 0% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 149.393
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 147.410

DXY:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DXY is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price continued to have bullish momentum and price closed above the 1st support level at 112.572 where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 113.934 at where the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 113.934
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 112.572

EUR/USD:

On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline and ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the 1st support at 0.97456, which is in line with overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. If the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support is at 0.96484, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.98644, where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. If the 1st resistance is broken, the 2nd resistance is at 0.99509, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st support at 0.97456
• H4 2nd support is 0.96484,

GBP/USD:

On the H4, price is below the ichimoku cloud and breaking the ascending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the 1st support at 1.10638, which is in line with the previous support and 50% fibonacci retracement. If the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support is at 1.06357, where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1.14120, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 current price
• H4 1st support at 1.10638

USD/CHF:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCHF is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight, USDCHF continued its bullish momentum upwards with the price currently trading at 1.01210 under the 1st resistance line at 1.01478 where the 100% Fibonacci line and previous swing high was located. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the 1st resistance and head towards the 2nd resistance at 1.02152 where 2 of the -27.2% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at 1.00678
• H4 1st resistance at 1.01210
• H4 2nd resistance at 1.02152

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On H4, with the price within the descending channel and crossing ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1642.052, which is in line with the overlap resistance and then drop back to the 1st support at 1616.659, where the previous swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may break the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1674.398, where the previous swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement are.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1642.052
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1616.659

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud and breaking ascending trendline, we can expect the price drop from the 1st resistance at 0.63351, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.61921, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 2nd resistance at 0.64252, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is.

Areas of consideration

• H4, 1st resistance at 0.63351
• H4, 1st support at 0.61921

NZD/USD:

On the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the ascending channel, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the 1st resistance at 0.57863, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.56811, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 2nd resistance at 0.58979, where the previous swing high, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.57863
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.56811

USD/CAD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCAD is bullish with price breaking the bearish trend line. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price had some bearish retracement with price currently trading at 1.37093 at the time of writing. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.38341 where the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.38341
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.36529
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 1.35040

OIL:

Looking at the H4 chart, the current overall bias for Oil is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price continued to consolidate along the 1st support line at 96.538 where the 100% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 99.439 where previous swing high and 0% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 99.439
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 96.538

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, it continued its bearish momentum downwards with the price currently resting along the 1st support at 31882.24 where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. The price is currently trading at 32006.05 at time of writing. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 33272.34 where the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 31882.24
• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 33272.34

DAX:

On the H4 chart, the price dropped back to the descending trendline. Expecting price to possibly continue this bearish momentum and head towards the 1st support at 12548.42, which is in line with the previous swing low. If the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support is at 11901.16, which is in line with the significant swing low. Alternatively, as the price is above ichimoku cloud, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 13490.91, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, current price
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 12548.42

ETHUSD:

Looking at the H4 chart, the current overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish, with price currently within the green Ichimoku cloud. Overnight, price continued to consolidate under the 1st resistance level at 1561.62 where 2 of the 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. Expecting price to possibly retrace back up and retest the 1st resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1561.62
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1411.43

BTCUSD:

Overnight, the price continued to consolidate under the 1st resistance 20447.45 where the 2 of the 50% Fibonacci lines are located. With the price crossing the Ichimoku cloud and resting on the bullish trend line. We can expect price to continue bearish towards the 1st support level at 19703.43 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance 20447.45
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 19703.43

S&P 500:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for S&P500 is bearish . Overnight, price continued its bearish momentum with price closing under the 1st resistance at 3805.83 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. The price is currently trading at 3719.88 at time of writing. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st support at 3636.87 where the previous swing low and 78.6% Fibonacci projection line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3636.87
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 3805.83

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0044; (P) 1.0095; (R1) 1.0187; More...

USD/CHF retreats mildly ahead of 1.0146 resistance, but intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0146 will resume larger up trend. Next target is 1.0283 projection level. On the downside, below 1.0031 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9840 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9779 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Asian markets are very mixed today, with Nikkei trading lower, following US stocks overnight. But strong rebound is seen in Hong Kong and China. As a result, Dollar is paring some of the post-FOMC gains while commodity currencies recover. It's also possible that traders are lighting up their positions ahead of non-farm payroll data form the US. In any case, much volatility is anticipated before the week comes to a close.

Technically, Gold recovered notably after dipping to 1616.51, ahead of 1614.60 low. On the downside, firm break of 1614.60 will confirm larger down trend resumption. On the upside, break of 1674.72 resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the consolidation pattern from 1614.60 with another rising leg. Upside should be capped below 1729.28 resistance. Today's move could be used to confirm the near term direction in Dollar.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.78%. Hong Kong HSI is up 6.78%. China Shanghai SSE is up 2.47%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.83%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0070 at 0.254. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.46%. S&P 500 dropped -1.06%. NASDAQ dropped -1.73%. 10-year yield rose 0.065 to 4.124.

RBA downgrades 2023, 2024 growth forecast, raised inflation

In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA noted that after a sequence of 50bps and 24bps rate hikes, "the Board recognised that interest rates had already been increased significantly in a short period of time".

"In an uncertain environment, slowing the adjustment of policy allows time to assess the effects of the increases to date and the evolving economic outlook," it added.

The Board expects that "interest rates will need to increase further", but "monetary policy is not on a pre-set path". The size and timing of future interest rate hikes will be determined by incoming data and assessment of the outlook of inflation and labor market.

In the new economic projections, year-average GDP growth forecast for:

• 2022 was left unchanged at 4%.
• 2023 was downgraded from 2.25% to 2.00%.
• 2024 was downgraded from 1.75% to 1.50%.

Year-end forecasts for headline CPI for:

• 2022 was revised up from 7.75% to 8.00%.
• 2023 was revised up from 4.25% to 4.75%.
• 2024 was revised up from 3.00% to 3.25%.

Year-end forecasts for trimmed mean CPI for:

• 2022 was revised up from 6.00% to 6.25%.
• 2023 was left unchanged at 3.75%.
• 2024 was revised up from 3.00% to 3.25%.

Year-end forecasts for unemployment rate for:

• 2022 was revised up from 3.25% to 3.50%.
• 2023 was revised up from 3.50% to 3.75%.
• 2024 was revised up from 4.00% to 4.25%.

NFP in focus, USD/CAD forming head and shoulder top?

US non-farm payroll employment data is the major focus of the day. Markets are expecting the job market to grow 200k in October. Unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 3.5% to 3.6%.

Looking at related data, ADP report showed solid 239k growth in private employment. ISM manufacturing employment also improved from 48.7 to 50.0. However, ISM services employment dropped notably from 53.0 to contractionary reading of 49.1. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose slightly from 207k to 219k. The set of data overall suggests that job market should remain tight.

As per market reaction, USD/CAD would be an interesting one to watch considering that Canada will also release job data. For now, near term outlook stays bullish for another rise through 1.3976 to resume larger up trend. However, break of 1.3494/3501 support will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.3832; h:1.3976; rs: 1.3807). In the case, deeper correction would likely be seen back to 1.3207 resistance turned support, before USD/CAD find renewed buying.

Elsewhere

Eurozone will release PMI services final and PPI. UK will release construction PMI. Canada will also release job data and Ivey PMI.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0044; (P) 1.0095; (R1) 1.0187; More...

USD/CHF retreats mildly ahead of 1.0146 resistance, but intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0146 will resume larger up trend. Next target is 1.0283 projection level. On the downside, below 1.0031 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9840 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9779 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
21:30	AUD	AiG Performance of Construction Index Oct	43.3		46.5
07:00	EUR	Germany Factory Orders M/M Sep		-0.60%	-2.40%
07:45	EUR	France Industrial Output M/M Sep		-1.00%	2.40%
08:45	EUR	Italy Services PMI Oct		48.5	48.8
08:50	EUR	France Services PMI Oct F		51.3	51.3
08:55	EUR	Germany Services PMI Oct F		44.9	44.9
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Services PMI Oct F		48.2	48.2
09:30	GBP	Construction PMI Oct		52.1	52.3
10:00	EUR	Eurozone PPI M/M Sep		1.70%	5.00%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep		42.00%	43.30%
12:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls Oct		200K	263K
12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate Oct		3.60%	3.50%
12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings M/M Oct		0.30%	0.30%
12:30	CAD	Net Change in Employment Oct		11.0K	21.1K
12:30	CAD	Unemployment Rate Oct		5.30%	5.20%
14:00	CAD	Ivey PMI Oct		60.2	59.5

US non-farm payroll employment data is the major focus of the day. Markets are expecting the job market to grow 200k in October. Unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 3.5% to 3.6%.

Looking at related data, ADP report showed solid 239k growth in private employment. ISM manufacturing employment also improved from 48.7 to 50.0. However, ISM services employment dropped notably from 53.0 to contractionary reading of 49.1. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose slightly from 207k to 219k. The set of data overall suggests that job market should remain tight.

As per market reaction, USD/CAD would be an interesting one to watch considering that Canada will also release job data. For now, near term outlook stays bullish for another rise through 1.3976 to resume larger up trend. However, break of 1.3494/3501 support will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.3832; h:1.3976; rs: 1.3807). In the case, deeper correction would likely be seen back to 1.3207 resistance turned support, before USD/CAD find renewed buying.

In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA noted that after a sequence of 50bps and 24bps rate hikes, "the Board recognised that interest rates had already been increased significantly in a short period of time".

"In an uncertain environment, slowing the adjustment of policy allows time to assess the effects of the increases to date and the evolving economic outlook," it added.

The Board expects that "interest rates will need to increase further", but "monetary policy is not on a pre-set path". The size and timing of future interest rate hikes will be determined by incoming data and assessment of the outlook of inflation and labor market.

In the new economic projections, year-average GDP growth forecast for:

• 2022 was left unchanged at 4%.
• 2023 was downgraded from 2.25% to 2.00%.
• 2024 was downgraded from 1.75% to 1.50%.

Year-end forecasts for headline CPI for:

• 2022 was revised up from 7.75% to 8.00%.
• 2023 was revised up from 4.25% to 4.75%.
• 2024 was revised up from 3.00% to 3.25%.

Year-end forecasts for trimmed mean CPI for:

• 2022 was revised up from 6.00% to 6.25%.
• 2023 was left unchanged at 3.75%.
• 2024 was revised up from 3.00% to 3.25%.

Year-end forecasts for unemployment rate for:

• 2022 was revised up from 3.25% to 3.50%.
• 2023 was revised up from 3.50% to 3.75%.
• 2024 was revised up from 4.00% to 4.25%.

Full SoMP here.