Sample Category Title

The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0080 and 1.0100 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair reacted to the downside and declined below the 1.0040 support.

There was close below the 1.0000 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now consolidating losses near the 0.9990 zone. An immediate resistance on the upside is near 1.0025 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The first major resistance is near the 1.0040 level.

A break above the 1.0040 resistance level could start a decent upward move. In the stated case, it could even surpass 1.0080 on FXOpen.

Conversely, the pair might start another decline below 0.9960. The next key support is near 0.9920, below the pair could decline towards the 0.9860 level. Any more losses might send the pair towards the 0.9820 level.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 93.6 to 92.5 in October. Industrial confidence dropped form -0.3 to -1.2. Services confidence dropped from 4.4 to 1.8. Consumer confidence improved from -28.8 to -27.6. Retail trade confidence rose from -8.4 to -6.9. Construction confidence rose from 1.8 to 2.6. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 106.6 to 104.9.

EU Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 92.4 to 90.9. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI fell in Germany (-1.0) and Italy (-0.9), while it remained essentially unchanged in the Netherlands (-0.3) and France (0.0) and improved in Poland (+0.4) and Spain (+1.4).

Full release here.

USDCAD has been in a steep uptrend since mid-September when the price managed to forcefully cross above the 1.3222 region. Although the pair recently spiked higher to a fresh 29-month high, it quickly lost some ground, hinting that its latest rally could be overstretched.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are waning. Specifically, the RSI has fallen marginally below its 50-neutral mark, while the MACD histogram has dived beneath its red signal line but remains in the positive territory. Nevertheless, the price action remains above the Ichimoku cloud, endorsing that the short-term picture has not turned bearish yet.

Should the negative momentum strengthen, the pair could extend its recent decline and encounter initial support at the double-bottom region of 1.3500. Sliding beneath that floor, the bears might aim for the crucial July peak of 1.3222 before the attention shifts to 1.3074. Even lower, the September low of 1.2960 could appear on the radar.

Alternatively, if buyers re-emerge and push the price higher, the 1.3850 hurdle may act as the first line of defence. Crossing above the latter, the 29-month high of 1.3976 could provide further upside protection. Should that barricade fail, the price could ascend to form fresh multi-year peaks, where the May 2020 resistance of 1.4140 may curb any advances.

Overall, even though bullish pressures appear to be subsiding, USDCAD’s uptrend remains intact. Nevertheless, a dive beneath the 1.3500 floor could be the starting point of a moderate downside correction.

USD/JPY is in positive territory today. In the European session, the yen is trading at 146.94, up 0.47%.

BoJ maintains policy

All eyes were on the Bank of Japan, which wrapped up a crucial 2-day policy meeting on Friday. The meeting came just days after Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in the currency markets after the yen had fallen close to the 152 line, a new 32-year low. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki would not confirm that the MOF had intervened for the second time in two months, but issued a blunt warning, declaring that the government was “facing off with speculators via markets.”

This set the stage for today’s BOJ meeting. In the end, it was business as usual, as the Bank maintained ultra-low interest rates and kept its dovish guidance. The BoJ remains an outlier with its loose policy, as most other major central banks are tightening in order to curb inflation. What was noteworthy was that the central bank revised upwards its inflation forecast for fiscal 2023. Headline inflation was raised to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in July, and core inflation to 2.9%, up from 2.3% in July, with the BoJ warning that risks were skewed to the upside. The Bank also lowered its growth forecast for fiscal 2022 and 2023.

Inflation has pushed above the BoJ’s target of 2%, but BOJ Governor Kuroda has insisted that he will not consider tightening policy until it is clear that inflation is sustainable. There was a hint from the Bank that this may not be so far off, as today’s BOJ quarterly report, noted that rising inflation is expected to “lead to sustained price rises accompanied by wage gains”.

The yen has paid the price for the BoJ’s ultra-loose policy, tumbling some 20% against the dollar this year. With the BoJ making it clear that it won’t be throwing any lifelines to the yen, the currency will be under pressure from the widening US/Japan rate differential, unless the MoF continues to intervene in the currency markets.

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY faces resistance at 147.50 and 148.59
• There is support at 145.23 and 143.14

Germany GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q3, much better than expectation of -0.2% qoq contraction. The economy finally exceeded pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019 for the first time.

Destatis said, "The German economy managed to hold its ground despite difficult framework conditions of the global economy, with the continuing Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain interruptions, rising prices and the war in Ukraine. The economic performance in the third quarter of 2022 was mainly based on private consumption expenditure."

Full release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.53; (P) 169.39; (R1) 170.05; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for the moment, but further rally is expected with 164.95 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 170.57 will confirm larger up trend resumption. However, break of 164.95 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 159.71 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will pave the way to retest 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.96; (P) 146.33; (R1) 147.10; More....

EUR/JPY's consolidation from 148.38 is extending and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained by 140.88/144.06 support zone to bring another rally. Break of 148.38 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 133.38 to 145.62 from 137.32 at 149.56, which is close to 149.76 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 (2014 high). Decisive break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 156.22. This will now remain the favored case as long as 137.32 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8586; (P) 0.8637; (R1) 0.8666; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8779 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8577 will resume the fall from 0.9267, towards 0.8201/8388 support zone. However, firm break of 0.8779 will indicate that such decline has completed after defending 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 0.9267 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5350; (P) 1.5479; (R1) 1.5567; More...

EUR/AUD breached 1.5412 support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281 to 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.5412 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9846; (P) 0.9900; (R1) 0.9928; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current retreat and some more consolidations would be seen below 0.9953. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9798 resistance turned support holds. Break of 0.9953 will resume the rise from 0.9407 to 100% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9798 from 0.9641 at 1.0032.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish condition in daily MACD and the firm break of 55 day EMA, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9407. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9641 support holds, even as a corrective rebound. Next target 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072. Reaction from there, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0120) will reveal whether the trend is reversing.