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The US dollar edged higher after Fed officials reiterated the need to keep tightening. The pair has recouped most of the losses from a previous liquidation, which suggests solid buying interest at 140.50 along the 30-day moving average. The peak at 145.90 is a key resistance and its breach could resume the rally towards August 1998’s high at 147.60. From the daily chart’s perspective, sentiment remains upbeat and the bulls may see pullbacks as opportunities to stake in. 143.60 is the first level should this happen.

It would appear we're in for another day of risk-off trade, with parts of Asia recording heavy losses and Europe opening on the backfoot.

Fear of tightening-induced recessions has wiped out the recovery we saw in stock markets over the bulk of the summer as investors were once again burned by an over-eagerness to catch the bottom in the market despite there being little evidence of it being justified.

That fear has now gripped the markets and we may see a little more caution going forward as the Fed has made clear that one inflation reading doesn't make a trend and it will take a lot more than that to convince it that it can afford to ease off the brake. Other central banks may have a lot more work to do; one in particular springs to mind, thanks to the misguided direction the government is taking the country in.

IMF adds to scathing attacks on UK mini-budget

The negative response to the UK's "mini-budget" has continued with the IMF adding their voice to the chorus of scathing attacks on the country's fiscal plans. It appears everyone is unusually united in their objection to the Treasuries tax-cutting plans at a time when inflation is almost 10% and rising.

The IMF was particularly forthright in its criticism of the debt-funded and untargeted measures, urging the government to re-evaluate during the budget event in November as current measures simply increased inequality.

Moody's was equally scathing warning that the measures are a credit negative that could threaten the country's credibility with investors and more permanently weaken the UK's debt affordability. It's no surprise then to see sterling plummet once more alongside Kwasi Kwarteng and Liz Truss' credibility on the world stage. Not the best start to life in Downing Street. ​

BoJ not ready to tighten despite weak yen

The BoJ minutes showed little inclination among board members to change course despite ongoing pressure on the currency and core inflation that is currently above target. The belief remains that temporary commodity inflation is responsible and therefore not sustainable although board members did acknowledge that they see price increases broadening with one even suggesting there's a stronger chance of sustained inflation backed by higher wages. A small step in the right direction but a step at least.

Of course, it's not one that changes the near-term outlook for Japanese monetary policy and so the pressure will remain on the yen as long as the dollar remains king.

Oil rebound brief as gas spikes amid sabotage on Nord Stream pipelines

Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday but that proved to be only a brief correction as economic doom and gloom has driven them lower again this morning. With Brent trading only a little above $80 and WTI below, you have to wonder how much more OPEC+ will tolerate and the size of output cut they may be considering next week in light of the new economic outlook and price.

Gas prices have also been highly volatile in light of the latest developments on Nord Stream one and two. While the latter was never likely to come online and the former unlikely as flows have been gradually reduced to zero over the course of the year, the apparent act of sabotage on both kills any hope of additional gas along those routes. The question for many is therefore what the sabotage sought to achieve, occurring around the inauguration of a pipeline that will deliver Norwegian gas to Poland.

Gold slipping again on a stronger dollar Gold is falling again as yields rise and the dollar rallies once more on Wednesday. The yellow metal has been hammered by the repricing of interest rate expectations recently and is now threatening to break below $1,620, with support next appearing around $1,600. It's now fallen more than 20% from its highs this year and could have further to go yet before we see peak inflation and rates priced into the market.

Bitcoin's show of resilience was short-lived

Bitcoin was showing remarkable resilience at one point on Tuesday, trading more than 5% higher and comfortably outperforming the broader market in a manner that was very impressive. Unfortunately, it didn't last long and actually ended the day in negative territory before slipping another 2% this morning. On the one hand, the risk environment is very unfavourable but we are seeing substantial support around $17,500-18,500. If that can hold, the rebound could be strong. The question is how long can it hold out if risk assets continue to head lower.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.26; (P) 155.32; (R1) 156.49; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 148.93 is still in progress. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 160.64 support turned resistance holds. Break of 148.93 will resume the decline from 169.10 towards 141.19 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 (2020 low) has completed at 169.10. 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 169.10 at 151.84 is already met, and there could be some support from there for rebound. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 169.10 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 151.84 will target 61.8% retracement at 141.19.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.52; (P) 139.03; (R1) 139.45; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 137.32 will resume the decline from 145.62 to 133.38 key support next. On the upside, though, break of 142.28 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 145.62 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 133.38 support holds, the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still extend through 145.62 high. In that case, next target 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 124.37 support first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8889; (P) 0.8947; (R1) 0.8996; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral as consolidation from 0.9267 continues. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8720 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.9267 will target 0.9499 long term resistance. However, break of 0.8270 support will mix up the near term outlook.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8201 is in progress targeting 0.9499 (2020 high) next. Based on current momentum, such rally should be resuming the up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low). Firm break of 0.9499 will target 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9499 from 0.8201 at 0.9786, which is close to 0.9799 (2008 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8720 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4842; (P) 1.4888; (R1) 1.4954; More...

EUR/AUD's rally from 1.4965 resumed by breaking through 1.4965. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5139 and then 100% projection at 1.5400. On the downside, break of 1.4716 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9480; (P) 0.9520; (R1) 0.9556; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for consolidation above 0.9407 temporary low. Outlook remains bearish with 0.9712 resistance intact. Break of 0.9407 will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9864 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9551; (P) 0.9610; (R1) 0.9652; More...

EUR/USD's decline resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current down trend should target 161.8% projection of 1.0368 to 0.9863 from 1.0197 at 0.9380 next. On the upside, above 0.9700 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first, and bring consolidations again, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0645; (P) 1.0742; (R1) 1.0829; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1080). On the downside, break of 1.0351 will resume larger down trend towards parity next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Next target is 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. There is no scope of a medium term rebound as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9852; (P) 0.9912; (R1) 0.9975; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9780). Break of 0.9964 will target 1.0063 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.