Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6480; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6624; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as down trend continues today. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6669 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3500; (P) 1.3557; (R1) 1.3645; More...

USD/CAD's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for long term fibonacci level at 1.3650. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3925. On the downside, below 1.3407 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. Sustained break there will target 1.4667 (2020 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9465; (P) 0.9543; (R1) 0.9588; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 0.9464 indicates down trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269. On the upside, break of 0.9712 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9864 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.81; (P) 157.13; (R1) 158.80; More...

GBP/JPY's decline continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained trading below 151.84 fibonacci level will pave the way to next level at 141.19. On the upside, above 155.61 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 (2020 low) has completed at 169.10. 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 169.10 at 151.84 is already met, and there could be some support from there for rebound. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 169.10 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 151.84 will target 61.8% retracement at 141.19.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.28; (P) 139.28; (R1) 139.88; More....

EUR/JPY's fall from 145.62 extended lower today. Break of 138.38 support raises the chance of larger reversal. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 133.38 support next. On the upside, above 140.25 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, as long as 133.38 support holds, the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still extend through 145.62 high. In that case, next target 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 124.37 support first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4791; (P) 1.4834; (R1) 1.4883; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.4965 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.4663 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.4965 will resume the rise from 1.4281 towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4663 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

USD/JPY:

On the H4 chart, price has reflected off the 2nd support at 140.363 and through 1st support at 142.574 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Price could possibly continue this short term bullish move up towards the 1st resistance line where the 23.6% Fibonacci line lies.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 144.952
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 142.574

DXY:

On the H4, price is still respecting the bullish channel and we are bullish bias. Price has broken the previous high to test at the first resistance at 114.483 where the swing high sits. If bullish momentum continues, it could bring price toward the second resistance at 120.506 where the previous swing high sits. Alternatively, it could pull back to test the first support at 112.571 where the 23.6% retracement sits then the second support at 110.855 where the 50% retracement and overlap support sits

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 114.483
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 112.571

EUR/USD:

On the H4, price is moving within the channel in a descending manner- we are bearish biased. Price has bounced off the first support and it looks like it’s moving to test the first resistance at 0.9709 where the 23.6% retracement and 145% extension sits. If price breaks this level, it will bring prices to the second resistance at 0.9907 where the 50% retracement and 100% projection sits. Alternatively it could continue with its bearish momentum to bring the price back down to 0.9576 where the previous swing low and 161.8% extension sits.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 0.9709
• H4 1st support at 0.9576

GBP/USD:

On the daily time frame, prices are still moving in a bearish momentum hence we are bearish biassed. Price has already tested the previous swing low at 1.0337 where the 138.2% extension sits. If bearish momentum continues, it should bring price to 0.9665 where the 161.8% extension sits. Alternatively price could pull back to test the first resistance at 1.0560 where the 127.2% extension sits then the second resistance at 1.1409 where the previous swing low sits

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.0675
• H4 1st support at 1.0337

USD/CHF:

On the H4, prices have broken the descending channel and we are currently bullish biased. Price has broken the first support and is moving toward the first resistance at 0.9863 where the 78.6% projection and previous swing high sits. If bullish momentum continues, it should bring price to the second resistance at 1.0020 where the swing high and 138.2% extension sits. Alternatively, price could pull back to test the first support at 0.9623 where the 61.8% retracement and overlapping resistance sits. If it breaks the first support, it should bring price to the second support at 0.9475 where the 100% projection sits.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at 0.9623
• H4 1st resistance at 0.9863

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, with the price broke out of the descending channel briefly but maintains below the ichimoku cloud, leading to a continual bearish bias that price may drop to the 1st support of 1585, which is in line with the swing low from March 2020. However, before the move lower, the price may first rebound to test the 1660 price level which is the 61.8% fibonacci extension, before trading lower.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1680
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1585

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with the price breaking the lower bound of descending channel, below ichimoku cloud and breaking the previous key support level at 0.65223, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the 1st support at 0.63965, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may break the previous support level and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.66716, which is in line with 23.6% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration

• H4, current price
• H4, 1st support at 0.63965

NZD/USD:

On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel, below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the 1st support at 0.56599, which is in line with the 100% fibonacci extension and 200% fibonacci extension. If the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support could be at 0.55626, which is in line with the 127.2% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may pull back to the 1st resistance at 0.58063, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement , if the 1st resistance is broken, the 2nd resistance could be at 0.58718, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.56599
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 0.55626

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with the price having trading within the ascending channel and staying above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1.37, major swing high from June 2020 and also slightly above a major 61.8% fibonacci retracement. There is a risk level at 1.36 which is where our intermediate resistance and the 61.8% fibonacci extension, this level needs to be broken to trigger the next move up to our resistance level. Beyond the 1st resistance, the 2nd resistance is at 1.41, major swing high from May 2020 and also at the 78.60% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.37
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance 1.40
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.35

OIL:

On the H4, the overall bias with oil is bearish since the price is moving within the bearish channel. Price broke through the 1st resistance at 88.305 where the 100% Fibonacci line and previous swing low are. Price could possibily continue bearish and head towards the 1st support at 85.380 where the 141.4% Fibonacci extension line lies.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 88.305
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 85.380

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, price is on a very bearish trend. Price has broke through the 1st resistance at 29653.29, where the 100% Fibonacci line and previous swing low lies. Price might continue heading downwards towards the 1st support at 28456.14 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 28456.14
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 29653.29

DAX:

On the H4, with the price moving below the descending trendline and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the 1st support at 12213.92, which is in line with the swing lows and 100% fibonacci projection. If the 1st support is broken, the next support level could be at 11621.75, where the 200% fibonacci extension is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 13023.43, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance are.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 12213.92
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 11621.75

ETHUSD:

On the H4, overall price is very bearish on ETHUSD. Price has broken through the 1st Support at 1280.00 where the 138.2% Fibonacci extension line is, and went back up having price close nicely resting on it. Price could possible head back up to the 1st resistance for retracement and then head lower back down towards the 2nd support area.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1420.74
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1280.00

BTCUSD:

On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the 1st support at 18527, which is in line with the swing lows and 61.8% fibonacci projection, if the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support could be at 2nd support at 17439.83, where the 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 19554.03, where the overlap resistance is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 18527
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 17439.83

S&P 500:

On the H4, with the price on a strong bearish trend and below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price may drop to the 1st support of 3516.38, which is in line with the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and previous swing low. There is a risk level at 3632.12 which is where our intermediate support and -61.8% expansion is, this level needs to be broken to trigger the next move down to our support level. Alternatively, price could pull back to test the first resistance at 3760.57 where the 23.6% retracement and -27.2% expansion sits

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 3760.57
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3516.38

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8784; (P) 0.8860; (R1) 0.9008; More...

EUR/GBP's rally accelerates further to as high as 0.9267 so far. There is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 200% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.9376. Firm break there will target 0.9499 long term resistance. On the downside, below 0.8959 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8201 is in progress targeting 0.9499 (2020 high) next. Based on current momentum, such rally should be resuming the up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low). Firm break of 0.9499 will target 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9499 from 0.8201 at 0.9786, which is close to 0.9799 (2008 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8720 resistance turned support holds.

Sterling's free fall extends into Asian session today, even against the weak Euro which is pressured against all other major currencies. Dollar is currently the strongest one and would likely remain so for now. Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar are also firm. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are mixed for now, but both are vulnerable to renewed selling in risk markets.

Technically, other than the decline in the Pound, some attention in on whether Euro's selloff would intensify. EUR/CHF has already broken through 0.9464 support to resume recent down trend. EUR/CAD's corrective recovery from 1.2867 might have completed at 1.3332 with today's steep fall. There is no follow through decline yet. But retest of 1.2867 low is now in favor, and break will confirm down trend resumption.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.58%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.17%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.08%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0094 at 0.254.

Fed Bostic: Economy can slow in a relatively orderly way

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on CBS's "Face the Nation" program, "Inflation is high. It is too high. And we need to do all we can to make it come down."

He added the US need to have a "slowdown", but "we are going to do all that we can at the Federal Reserve to avoid deep, deep pain."

"We're still creating lots of jobs on a monthly basis, and so I actually think that there is some ability for the economy to absorb our actions and slow in a relatively orderly way," he said.

Japan FM Suzuki: Will take action against speculations on Yen if needed

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government is "strongly concerned" about one-sided, rapid yen moves.

"We took appropriate action against excessive volatility driven by speculators. The intervention has had a certain effect," he said, referring to last week's intervention to support Yen. "There is no change in our stance that we will take (further) action if needed."

"Governor Kuroda expressed Thursday in his remarks his strong concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen. We have a shared view on this with the BOJ," Suzuki added.

Former top currency diplomat Naoyuki Shinohara, however, said, "it's unlikely Japan will continue intervening to defend a certain line, such as 145 yen to the dollar... It's impossible to reverse the market's broad trend with intervention alone." Shinohara oversaw Japan's currency policy during the global financial crisis in 2008.

Japan PMI manufacturing dipped to 51.0, services rose to 51.9

Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 51.5 to 51.0 in September, below expectation of 51.1. That's the lowest reading since January 2021. Manufacturing Output Index dropped from 49.2 to 48.9. PMI Services, on the other hand, rose from 49.5 to 51.9. PMI Composite rose from 49.4 to 50.9.

Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "Business are reporting concerns around the economic outlook amid steep cost pressures and the rising likelihood of a global economic downturn. The remarkable weakness we've seen in the year-to-date in the yen continues to push up price pressures, with companies struggling to fully pass on these higher costs burdens to clients. Subsequently business confidence slumped to a 13-month low".

US consumer confidence and Eurozone CPI to highlight the week

Economic should be back on center stage in this last week of the quarter. US consumer confidence, personal income and spending, could trigger most volatility. But durables goods orders will also be watched. Germany Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer confidence and Eurozone CPI flash will also catch much attention. Other data include Japan PMI manufacturing, Japan industrial production and retail sales, Canada GDP, Australia retail sales, New Zealand ANZ business confidence, and China PMIs.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Japan PMI manufacturing; Germany Ifo business climate.
• Tuesday: Japan corporate service prices; Eurozone M3 money supply; US durable goods orders, house price index, consumer confidence, new home sales.
• Wednesday: BOJ minutes; New Zealand ANZ business confidence; Australia retail sales; Germany Gfk consumer climate; US goods trade balance, pending home sales.
• Thursday: Germany CPI flash; Canada GDP; US GDP final, jobless claims.
• Friday: New Zealand building permits, Japan industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, consumer confidence, housing starts; China PMIs; UK GDP final, M4 money supply, mortgage approvals; Swiss retail sales, KOF economic barometer; Germany unemployment; Eurozone CPI flash, unemployment rate; US personal income and spending, with PCE inflation, U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8784; (P) 0.8860; (R1) 0.9008; More...

EUR/GBP's rally accelerates further to as high as 0.9267 so far. There is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 200% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.9376. Firm break there will target 0.9499 long term resistance. On the downside, below 0.8959 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8201 is in progress targeting 0.9499 (2020 high) next. Based on current momentum, such rally should be resuming the up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low). Firm break of 0.9499 will target 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9499 from 0.8201 at 0.9786, which is close to 0.9799 (2008 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8720 resistance turned support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
00:30	JPY	Manufacturing PMI Sep P	51	51.1	51.5
08:00	EUR	Germany IFO Business Climate Sep		87.1	88.5
08:00	EUR	Germany IFO Current Assessment Sep		96	97.5
08:00	EUR	Germany IFO Expectations Sep		78.6	80.3

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government is "strongly concerned" about one-sided, rapid yen moves.

"We took appropriate action against excessive volatility driven by speculators. The intervention has had a certain effect," he said, referring to last week's intervention to support Yen. "There is no change in our stance that we will take (further) action if needed."

"Governor Kuroda expressed Thursday in his remarks his strong concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen. We have a shared view on this with the BOJ," Suzuki added.

Former top currency diplomat Naoyuki Shinohara, however, said, "it's unlikely Japan will continue intervening to defend a certain line, such as 145 yen to the dollar... It's impossible to reverse the market's broad trend with intervention alone." Shinohara oversaw Japan's currency policy during the global financial crisis in 2008.