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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5621; (P) 1.5684; (R1) 1.5728; More...

EUR/AUD is losing some upside momentum but further rise is still in favor as long as 1.5585 minor support holds. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.5764) will argue that whole fall from 1.6434 has completed and bring stronger rally. On the downside, however, below 1.5585 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5354. Break there will target a test on 1.5250 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0528; (P) 1.0549; (R1) 1.0561; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation form 1.0532 is extending. Further fall is expected with 1.0602 resistance intact. Break of 1.0532 will resume the down trend from 1.1149 and target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, however, break of 1.0602 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound back towards 1.0678 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1437; (P) 1.1516; (R1) 1.1556; More...

EUR/USD's break of 1.1512 confirms resumption of larger decline from 1.2348. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1453. Break will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1306. On the upside, break of 1.1607 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1691 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1691 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3349; (P) 1.3457; (R1) 1.3511; More...

GBP/USD's break of 1.3410 support suggests resumption of whole fall from 1.4248. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3164 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 1.3606 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9132; (P) 0.9159; (R1) 0.9209; More....

USD/CHF's break of 0.9174 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming at 0.9084. Intraday bias is back on the upside for stronger rebound. On the downside, break of 0.9084 will resume the fall from 0.9367 to 0.9017 support, and then 0.8925.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.12; (P) 113.56; (R1) 114.35; More...

USD/JPY's break of 113.65 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 114.69 is complete at 112.71. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 114.69 first. Sustained break there will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2422; (P) 1.2463; (R1) 1.2539; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.2497 resistance now suggests that fall from 1.2947 might have completed with three waves down to 1.2286. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.2386 support holds. Rise from 1.2286 would target 1.2894/2947 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7302; (P) 0.7348; (R1) 0.7371; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7555 extends to as low as 0.7294 so far today. Current development argues that corrective rise from 0.7105 has completed with three waves up to 0.7555. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105 low. We'd look for bottoming signal again at around 0.6991 key support. On the upside, though, break of 0.7431 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Dollar stays generally firm in Asian session, following the post CPI rally overnight. Yen is some what helped by the selloff in stock markets despite rebound in US yields, and remains firm except versus the greenback. On the other hand, Australian Dollar tumbles sharply following much worse than expected job data, and leads other commodity currencies lower.

Technically, Dollar has made some progress with EUR/USD breaking through 1.1512 temporary low, and GBP/USD breaking 1.3410 support. USD/CAD's break of 1.2497 resistance is also a sign of more rally. A focus now is on whether USD/JPY would break through 114.69 high to resume larger up trend, and confirm Dollar's one-sided rally.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.47%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.15%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.59%. Singapore Strait Times is flat. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0113 at 0.071. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.66%. S&P 500 dropped -0.82%. NASDAQ dropped -1.66%. 10-year yield rose 0.128 to 1.560.

A look at 5-yr and 10-yr yield after strong rebound

US treasury yields staged a strong rebound overnight following the much stronger than expected CPI data. Five year yield closed up 0.146 at 1.214. The development suggests that pull back from 1.251 has completed after well defending 1.042 support. The stay above rising 55 day EMA also keeps near term outlook bullish. Retest of 1.251 resistance would be seen soon. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.192 to 100% projection of 0.192 to 0.988 from 0.606 at 1.402.

10-year yield also closed up 0.128 at 1.560. While the treat from 1.691 should have completed at 1.415, there is no clear sign of an upside breakout yet. Also, even if 1.691 would be broken, there is another key resistance at 1.765 ahead. Hence, near term outlook is more on the neutral side for now.

Australia employment dropped -46.3k, unemployment rate jumped to 5.2%

Australia employment decreased -46.3k in October, much worse than expectation of 50k rise. At 12.84m, employment level was back below pre-pandemic peak. Full time jobs dropped -40.4k while part-time jobs dropped -5.9k.

Unemployment rate jumped sharply from 4.6% to 5.2%, well above expectation of 4.7%. But participation rate also rose slightly from 64.5% to 64.7%. Monthly hours worked dropped -1m hours.

Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS: "The increases in unemployment show that people were preparing to get back to work, and increasingly available and actively looking for work – particularly in New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory. This follows what we have seen towards the end of other major lockdowns, including the one in Victoria late last year."

"It may seem counterintuitive for unemployment to rise as conditions are about to improve. However, this shows how unusual lockdowns are, compared with other economic shocks, in how they limit being able to work and look for work."

Japan PPI surged to 8% yoy in Oct, highest since 1981

Japan corporate goods price index rose 8.0% yoy in October, up from September's 6.4% yoy, well above expectation of 6.9% yoy. That's also the highest level since January 1981.

Looking at some details, lumber & wood surged 57.0% yoy. Petroleum and cola rose 44.5% yoy. Iron and steel rose 21.8%. Nonferrous metals rose 31.4% yoy. Export price rose 13.7% yoy while import price rose 38.0% yoy.

Looking ahead

UK GDP, productions and trade balance will be featured in European session. ECB will release monthly economic bulletin too. US and Canada will be on holiday.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7302; (P) 0.7348; (R1) 0.7371; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7555 extends to as low as 0.7294 so far today. Current development argues that corrective rise from 0.7105 has completed with three waves up to 0.7555. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105 low. We'd look for bottoming signal again at around 0.6991 key support. On the upside, though, break of 0.7431 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Economic Indicators Update

US treasury yields staged a strong rebound overnight following the much stronger than expected CPI data. Five year yield closed up 0.146 at 1.214. The development suggests that pull back from 1.251 has completed after well defending 1.042 support. The stay above rising 55 day EMA also keeps near term outlook bullish. Retest of 1.251 resistance would be seen soon. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.192 to 100% projection of 0.192 to 0.988 from 0.606 at 1.402.

10-year yield also closed up 0.128 at 1.560. While the treat from 1.691 should have completed at 1.415, there is no clear sign of an upside breakout yet. Also, even if 1.691 would be broken, there is another key resistance at 1.765 ahead. Hence, near term outlook is more on the neutral side for now.