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In today’s session, gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3960 per troy ounce, up an astounding +1.91%, and has yet again comfortably renewed all-time highs.

With gold pricing up over 50% year-to-date, markets now turn their gaze to the key level of $4,000, having only rallied above $3,000 for the first time in history less than seven months ago.

As ever, let’s take a look at some of the macro themes affecting precious metal markets, alongside some likely price targets for this week’s trading.

Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 06/10/2025

• While wind has remained in the sails of precious metals for much of 2025, news of the US government has provided further tailwind to the current rally, with heightened market uncertainty boosting gold prices north of $3950
• A higher level of market conviction regarding the Federal Reserve’s path to further rate cuts is also boosting gold pricing, with some sources reporting a 92.5% probability that US interest rates will be cut again in the upcoming decision
• Otherwise, a persistent feeling of market uncertainty, particularly concerning worldwide sovereign debt, adds to the current precious metals premium

Gold (XAU/USD) YTD, OANDA, TradingView, 06/10/2025

Gold blasts above $3,900, posting fresh all-time highs

Another day, another session, and another all-time high for the world’s favourite yellow metal

Bar one major exception, the fundamental analysis picture for gold remains virtually unchanged from last week’s coverage, with markets remaining demonstrably bullish.

While gold and silver pricing continue to impress, let’s break down some significant developments in the last seven days, and, most importantly, how bullion trades within touching distance of $4,000 for the first time in history:

US government shutdown: While there will be no prizes for those who correctly predicted the aforementioned exception would be the recent shutdown of the US government, major disruption to the US federal government has proven, somewhat predictably, incredibly positive for gold pricing.

@realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 02/10/2025

While the recent Senate disagreement is not the first time, dare I say, nor the last, that Republicans and Democrats have clashed over government funding, the event is the first of its kind in over six years, adding to a growing feeling of market uncertainty.

Market conviction on Federal Reserve easing path: Defying the odds of a staunchly hawkish Federal Reserve for much of 2025, gold has still rallied to new highs multiple times this year. While an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve has been the prevailing narrative for some time, most notably signified by a reduction in interest rates in their September decision, markets are now more convinced than ever that a second rate cut will follow in October, directly benefiting precious metal pricing.

CME FedWatch, 06/10/2025

To add a further level of complication, and owing to the aforementioned government shutdown, key economic data reports like nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and PCE have been suspended until further notice, which puts the Federal Reserve in an unenviable position if it wishes to maintain its mandate of ‘both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment’, effectively flying blind. This goes double when considering that extended periods of shutdown can significantly hinder economic performance, providing further rationale for a potential rate reduction.

Put simply, the Federal Reserve’s shift from hawkish to dovish has removed a prominent anchor to current precious metal upside, pushing the existing rally even higher.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 06/10/2025

Shifting our focus to market technicals, let’s begin by examining the monthly chart, then move on to the daily.

Gold (XAU/USD): Weekly (W) chart analysis (06/10/2025):

Gold (XAU/USD) W, OANDA, TradingView, 06/10/2025

If I had shown you this chart unlabelled, one would be forgiven for thinking this was the five-minute chart, especially considering the past eight candles or so.

While sustained upside, as shown above, is rare on the weekly chart, gold bulls will undoubtedly be pleased with recent performance, with price action virtually parabolic.

Having broken out of an upwards channel, with the upper boundary held around $3,602, what followed was an explosive move to the upside, marking fresh all-time highs.

While no candlestick structure to the upside could otherwise offer resistance, traders should be aware that a short-term correction remains possible, with the RSI reporting gold pricing as ‘overbought’ for the fourth time this year.

Otherwise, should price stage a move higher, we can expect some profit-taking at the key level of $4,000.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: Key psychological level: $4,000
• Price target 2: 78.6% Fib: $4,096
• Support 1: 78.6% Fib: $3,866
• Support 2: 61.8% Fib: $3,783
• Support 3: Previous high: $3,440

While it seems remiss to mention a potential for bearish momentum all things considered, a fall below the 9-day moving average, currently held at $3,629, could encourage bears, albeit few in number at present.

Gold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis (06/10/2025):

Gold (XAU/USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 06/10/2025

At the current pace markets are moving, gold could stage a serious challenge for $4,000 in the next few days.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: Key psychological level: $4,000
• Resistance 1: Upper Bollinger band limit: $3,941
• Support 1: Consolidation: $3,867
• Support 2: 9-period Ma: $3,839

With the current upside bookmarked by a 9-21 MA crossover, price is currently testing the upper limit of the 20-day Bollinger band, suggesting a period of consolidation or a retracement towards the baseline is likely to follow recent bullish momentum.

If prices do retrace, traders would be well-advised to confirm the response at key levels of support, offering a potential entry point for those looking to enter a long position.

Ethereum: ⬆️ Buy

• Ethereum broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to resistance levels 4755.00 and 5000.00

Ethereum cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the end of August (which encloses the previous intermediate ABC correction (2)).

The breakout of this down channel accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the round support level 4000.00.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 4755.00 (top of the earlier wave B) – the breakout of which will open the way for further gains toward 5000.00.

Markets

France and Japan were a rude awakening to markets lulled to sleep by very low volatility on FI and FX markets. Asia’s third largest economy is on track to have its first female prime minister in history after the LDP chair elections this weekend. Sanae Takaichi’s reputation as a fiscal dove is a blessing for local stock markets but a nightmare for government bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve. Add a central bank in tightening mode (both rate hikes and QE tapering) and already above-target inflation and you have rates cranking up 15 bps (40-year tenor). The 30-year maturity (+14 bps) closed at a record high. European bonds are caught in the crossfire. France stands out following prime minister Lecornu’s unexpected resignation in the early morning. He just announced his new government. But basically being a copy paste of the previous one under Bayrou it prompted a backlash, not only from opposition parties that he needs for his minority government to survive, but also from within. Lecornu felt he wouldn’t be able to navigate much-needed fiscal consolidation through such a fractured, dysfunctional parliament. President Macron has three options: call new elections (1), appoint yet another prime minister (2) or resign himself (3). (1) risks stripping established parties (including his own) from even more voters to the benefit of the likes of Rassemblement National, (2) is Einstein insanity and (3) is just not an option Macron is really considering. The bottom line is that if there’s ever going to be fiscal consolidation, it will be watered down to meaningless efforts. The deadline for a budget is next week Monday but won’t be met in this universe, meaning France will have to resort to emergency measures. French credit risk premia (vs swap) rise to the highest level since January this year. We spot spillovers to the likes of Belgium, which faces a similar daunting budget task. German yields add up to 3 bps with the rise only temporarily interrupted by safe haven flows. Treasuries and Gilts join the trend lower. US yields add 1.2-3.2 bps in a steepener. UK yields top that slightly by rising 1.3-4.5 bps across the curve. JPY and EUR are today’s laggards in the FX landscape. EUR/JPY briefly shot up beyond 176 for the first time ever before paring gains to the July 2024 record close of 175.11. USD/JPY returned from above 150 to below (a threshold which one of Takaichi’s advisors said is undesirable for JPY to weaken beyond). The pair is still trading 2 big figures higher than Friday’s close though. The French impasse weighs EUR/USD down to just south of 1.17. The weaker euro allows GBP to benefit marginally (EUR/GBP around 0.87). European stock markets cope well with the bout of uncertainty. The EuroStoxx50 slid around 1% but pared losses to just 0.15%. The French CAC40 underperforms (-1.3%). WS opens mixed.

News & Views

The Czech statistical of published preliminary CPI data for September. Prices decreased a faster than expected 0.6% M/M slowing the yearly figure 2.3% (was +0.1% M/M and 2.5% Y/Y in August). The consensus expected -0.3% M/M and 2.6% Y/Y. Food prices were 0.6% lower compared to August (2.9% Y/Y from 4%), energy prices declined 0.7% M/M (-3.3% Y/Y vs -4.4%). Goods prices fell 0.4% M/M to be 0.8% higher Y/Y (was 1.1% Y/Y in august). Services prices were 0.9% lower M/M but this left the y/y measure unchanged at 4.7% as season factors were in play. In its summer economic forecast, the Czech National Bank (CNB) expected September inflation at 2.6% Y/Y. The Czech 2-y swap yield declines 5 bps. It’s too early to draw conclusions for CNB policy. An important part of the better outcome was due to volatile food and energy prices and the CNB will take the impact of a potentially more stimulative fiscal policy into consideration in the wake of the outcome of this weekend’s parliamentary elections. The Czech korona eases modestly today, trading near EUR/CZK 24.31 compared to a 24.26 close on Friday.

The Bank of Japan today released its quarterly report on the country’s regional economies. All nine regions reported that their respective economies had been recovering moderately, picking up, or picking up moderately, although some weakness had been seen in part. However, the assessment from one region (Hokkaido) was slightly downwardly revised. In press conference after a branch manager meeting held today, the manager of the Osaka branch indicated that there was not enough information available on the wage growth, which is a key parameter for BoJ policy. ‘Wage increases will likely continue as a trend, due to structural labour shortages. But it's hard to know what will happen in next year's wage talks, as the impact of tariffs on corporate profits will only start to show from now on," Kazuhiro Masaki, said.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1717; (P) 1.1738; (R1) 1.1763; More...

EUR/USD falls notably today but stays above 1.1644 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.1644 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1679) will indicate medium term topping at 1.1917, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Further fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support. Nevertheless, break of 1.1778 resistance will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1265).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3438; (P) 1.3462; (R1) 1.3502; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and further decline is still in favor. On the downside, break of 1.3322 will resume the fall from 1.3725 to 1.3140 support. On the upside, though, firm break of 1.3535 will argue that pullback from 1.3725 has already completed, and bring stronger rise to retest 1.3725/87 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could be seen from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3176) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7938; (P) 0.7963; (R1) 0.7978; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8006) will suggest that rise from 0.7828 is already correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Further rise should the be seen to 0.8170 resistance and possibly above. However, break of 0.7908 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7828 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.11; (P) 147.47; (R1) 147.84; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 150.90 could have completed at 145.47 already. Further rise should be seen to 150.90. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 139.87 to 151.22 fibonacci level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, below 149.01 will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8704; (P) 0.8717; (R1) 0.8727; More…

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8750 resumed by breaking through 0.8688 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8631 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, though, above 0.8728 will bring retest of 0.8750 first. Firm break there will resume the larger rally towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8539) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Domestic politics dominated global markets today, driving sharp moves in both European and Asian trading sessions. In Europe, political instability in France rattled sentiment, while in Japan, optimism over new leadership sparked a broad equity surge and a dramatic selloff in the Yen.

In European, CAC 40 slumped and Euro is sold off broadly, after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his newly formed government resigned just hours after unveiling their cabinet lineup. The collapse, just 14 hours after formation, deepened France’s ongoing political turmoil and marked the shortest-lived administration in modern history.

Lecornu cited the impossibility of governing amid threats from both coalition partners and the opposition to topple his government. The fallout was immediate, with opposition parties calling on President Macron to resign or trigger early elections. The episode underscores growing public fatigue and political fragmentation that risk eroding investor confidence in French assets.

Yet, Yen’s dramatic selloff overshadowed Europe’s turmoil. The currency plunged below 150 per dollar for the first time since early August and touched a record low versus Euro, as Japanese equities soared. Traders rushed into risk assets, betting that Prime Minister-designate Sanae Takaichi's incoming administration will prioritize fiscal expansion and encourage continued BoJ accommodation.

The move rippled across bond markets, sending short-term JGB yields to two-week lows as traders cut back expectations for further tightening. Market pricing for a BoJ hike by year-end fell sharply to near 40% from 68% at the end of last week, as confidence grew that the central bank will stay on hold through October.

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone in recent weeks aligns with this view, suggesting that policymakers see little urgency to resume tightening. With political stability and fiscal stimulus prospects improving, investors appear comfortable re-engaging in carry trades, accelerating Yen’s decline.

For now, Dollar leads as the day’s strongest performer, followed by Loonie and Aussie. At the other end, Yen remains the weakest, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc, while Sterling and Kiwi hover mid-pack in largely risk-driven trade.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.15%. DAX is up 0.25%. CAC is down -1.27%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.044 at 4.739. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 2.723. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 4.75%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.67%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.52%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.015 to 1.680.

ECB’s Lane: No pre-commitment on rate path, policy to stay data-driven

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reiterated in a speech today that monetary policy will remain data-driven and meeting-by-meeting, with “no pre-commitment to a particular rate path.” He emphasized said the ECB’s policy decisions will hinge not only on the baseline inflation forecast but also on "shifts in the risk distribution".

The downside inflation risks outlined in September include a stronger Euro, weaker export demand caused by higher global tariffs, and the possibility of rising market volatility linked to trade tensions.

Conversely, Lane highlighted several upside risks that could keep inflation elevated. These include "fragmentation of global supply chains"; surge in defence and infrastructure spending that boosts medium-term demand; and climate-related disruptions.

He elaborated that persistent Euro movements tends to have "multi-year impact" on both inflation and growth, with the size of the impact depending on its source. Appreciation stemming from external weakness or capital flows tends to depress inflation more sharply. On the other hand, changes driven by domestic demand strength or domestic risk premiums carry a smaller inflationary force.

Eurozone Sentix rises to -5.4, mood brightens from exaggerated pessimism

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone improved in October, with Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising from -9.2 to -5.4, topping forecasts of -7.7. Current Situation Index advanced from -18.8 to -16.0, while Expectations climbed sharply from 0.8 to 5.8.

Sentix said the latest data initially looks like the long-awaited economic turning point, with strong improvements seen across Germany, Austria, and Switzerland as well. However, it cautioned that the improvement may not mark a lasting turnaround. Most country-level readings and the Eurozone composite still sit below August’s levels, implying that September’s pessimism was "negatively exaggerated".

Meanwhile, Sentix also noted that inflation remains a key worry, with its related index barely rising to -17.75. Still, markets appear to expect that the ECB will maintain a steady policy stance, and perhaps even lean slightly supportive, despite mounting fiscal pressures. Sentix warned that such expectations may have a “limited half-life,” as growing debt levels and persistent inflation could restrain the scope for policy easing in the months ahead.

Eurozone retail sales edge up 0.1% mom in August, momentum muted

Eurozone retail sales rose 0.1% mom in August, matching expectations and signaling only a modest pickup in consumer activity. The increase was driven by 0.3% rise in food, drinks, and tobacco sales and 0.4% gain in automotive fuel, partly offset by a -0.1% decline in non-food product demand.

Across the wider European Union, retail sales were flat on the month. Among member states, Lithuania (+1.7%), Cyprus and Malta (+1.5%), and Sweden (+1.1%) posted the strongest gains, while Romania (-4.0%), Poland (-0.8%), and Luxembourg and Portugal (both -0.7%) recorded notable declines.

BoJ report highlights resilient recovery but tariffs cloud wage, capex outlook

The BoJ’s Regional Economic Report released today painted a mixed picture of recovery, with assessments for eight regions left unchanged and one downgraded. Most local economies were described as “recovering moderately” or “picking up” .

Businesses in some areas reported that they may scale back wage hikes if tariffs begin to bite into profits, a risk that could slow Japan’s nascent wage-led inflation. Still, several regions pointed to ongoing wage pressures from tight labor markets and rising living costs, suggesting that the underlying trend in income growth remains intact for now.

The survey also revealed continued commitment to capital investment, particularly in automation and IT-related projects, as firms seek efficiency gains. However, a number of companies plan to delay or reassess spending amid uncertainty over global demand and the evolving impact of tariffs.

WTI oil recovers ahead of 60 after OPEC+ opts for measured output hike

Oil prices recovered modestly in today after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed a small production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, matching the rise announced for October. The restrained decision eased fears of a larger supply boost.

Following Sunday’s ministerial meeting, OPEC+ said the move was made “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals.” The statement emphasized low global inventories as evidence that supply-demand conditions remain tight enough to justify a gradual output approach.

The limited hike contrasts with speculation that major producers—particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia—might push for a faster restoration of supply to reclaim market share. Instead, the decision reflects caution amid volatile demand signals and lingering uncertainty over global growth.

Technically, for WTI oil, some consolidations would be seen above 60.62 temporary low for the near term. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 63.49 minor resistance holds.

Break of 60.62 will resume the whole decline from 78.87. Next target is 100% projection of 71.34 to 61.90 from 66.70 at 57.26. However, firm break of 63.49 will bring stronger rebound back to 66.70 resistance instead.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8704; (P) 0.8717; (R1) 0.8727; More…

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8750 resumed by breaking through 0.8688 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8631 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, though, above 0.8728 will bring retest of 0.8750 first. Firm break there will resume the larger rally towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8539) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.