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GBPUSD Hovers Above 20-Day SMA, Broader Outlook Is Neutral
GBPUSD is attempting to break through the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), while maintaining above the 1.3670 support level, which is also the 200-day SMA. The MACD oscillator has moved above the trigger line and is now trading below zero; nevertheless, the RSI is hovering near the neutral threshold of 50.
The psychological figure of 1.4000 could provide immediate resistance to upward moves before testing the 35-month high of 1.4238. Beyond this stumbling block, the 1.4345 resistance level from January 2018 may come into focus.
A drop lower, on the other hand, might revisit the 200-day SMA at 1.3670 before falling towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 1.1405 to 1.4238 at 1.3577. Penetrating this line too, the market outlook could turn to negative, testing 1.3435 and the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.3180.
Overall, GBPUSD has been in a trading range over the last five months, with an upper boundary the 1.4238 barrier and a lower boundary the 1.3670 support. Any advances above 1.4238 could shift the outlook to bullish, though a break below 1.3670 could switch the broader window to bearish.
SPX 500 Resumes Uptrend
The S&P 500 climbs higher as investors bet on a protracted ultra-loose monetary policy.
The latest correction saw strong buying interest at 4290. The rebound was as swift as the pullback, an indication of lasting bullish fever. After lifting offers around 4250, the index has turned the former supply zone into a support.
The bullish MA cross is another giveaway of the trend continuation. 4420 would be the next target. An overheated RSI may temper the enthusiasm and a retracement is likely to meet the bulls.
EUR/AUD Seeks Support After Surge
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar weakens amid a cautious mood. The euro’s rally has gained impetus after it cleared the critical resistance at 1.5940 on the daily timeframe.
Sentiment favors the upside and the latest pullback could be a reaction to the RSI’s overbought situation.
The single currency is looking for support above 1.5800. A rebound above the intermediate resistance at 1.5900 would confirm that buyers are in control and may attract followers.
Then a bullish breakout above 1.5980 may extend the rally.
USD/CHF Tests Key Support
The US dollar consolidates as concerns grow about the resurgence of the pandemic.
The pair has found support at 0.9125, which lies on the 30-day moving average. The greenback is now at a crossroads after its sell-off in the daily supply area. A successful rebound could resume the reversal in the medium term.
However, a bearish breakout could extend the price towards the psychological level of 0.9000.
The RSI has recovered into the neutral area. 0.9260 would be the key resistance ahead if the buying gains strength.
USD/CAD Could Maintain Channel
The 50– hour simple moving average provided resistance for the USD/CAD currency pair on Monday. As a result, the US Dollar fell by 66 pips or 0.52% against the Canadian Dollar during Monday's trading session.
The exchange rate is likely to continue to edge lower in a narrow descending channel pattern during the following trading session. The possible target for sellers will be near the 1.2350 area.
However, the 200– hour SMA at 1.2437 could provide support for the currency exchange rate in the shorter term.
GBP/JPY Bulls Likely To Prevail
The British Pound surged by 84 pips or 0.55% against the Japanese Yen on Monday. The currency pair breached the 200– hour simple moving average during Monday's trading session.
As for the near future, buyers are likely to continue to pressure the exchange rate higher. The potential target for bullish traders will be near the 154.20 area.
However, the upper boundary of a descending channel pattern at 153.50 could provide resistance for the GBP/JPY currency exchange rate within the following trading session.
AUD/USD Bounces Off Support
The AUD/USD currency pair bounced off a support level formed by the 50– hour simple moving average at 0.7453 on Monday. As a result, the Australian Dollar surged by 40 pips or 0.53% against the US Dollar during Monday's trading session.
Everything being equal, the exchange rate is likely to continue to edge higher within the following trading session. The potential target for bullish traders will be near the 0.7570 area.
However, the weekly pivot point at 0.7499 could provide resistance for the currency exchange rate in this session.
EUR/JPY Tests 200-Hour SMA
The common European currency edged higher by 57 pips or 0.47% against the Japanese Yen on Monday. The rise was stopped by the 200– hour simple moving average at 131.09 during Monday's trading session.
All things being equal, the exchange rate could continue to edge higher during the following trading session. The potential target for buyers will be near the weekly resistance level at 131.86.
However, the 200– hour simple moving average at 131.09 could provide resistance for the currency exchange rate in the shorter term.
ECB Lagarde: It’s now a simple, solid, symmetric 2% inflation target
In an FT interview, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the old inflation target of "below, but close to, two per cent" was "vaguely ambiguous and a little bit complex". The target with the new strategy was a "simple, solid, symmetric two per cent target"
The 2% target now is "solid because it gives us space to manoeuvre our monetary policy, it is a well-accepted measurement of price stability around the world and it limits the welfare cost of too high inflation."
She added that the third "s" of symmetry is really important, because "we affirm very clearly that there may be deviations up or down... we know that it's not going to be a straight two per cent linearly forever once we reach the target and we'll recognise that it will oscillate around two per cent. "
Lagarde also said ECB's policy rebound will be especially forceful or persistent", intending to signal that" we will not prematurely tighten".
Daily Tecnical Analysis
EUR/USD
Current level - 1.1875
The currency pair continues to trade within the narrow range between the support at 1.1800 and the resistance at 1.1890. At the moment, the market has no clear direction and the bulls might try to take the trade to 1.1950. Their daily support will be the zone at 1.1844 and their first resistance remains 1.1890. It is likely that the market will need a catalyst before it starts moving in its future direction. This could be the announcement of the consumer price index for the United States today at 12:30 GMT.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| intraday | intraweek | intraday | intraweek |
| 1.1890 | 1.1950 | 1.1840 | 1.1750 |
| 1.1950 | 1.2130 | 1.1800 | 1.1716 |
USD/JPY
Current level - 110.08
The Greenback continues to recover against the yen and, in the early hours of today, trading has reached the resistance zone at 110.40. Even if the bullish rally continues, the expectations are that the movement will be limited to the zone of 110.60-110.80. Bulls can expect their first support at around 110.08. A new test of the support at 109.50 can also be expected when the bearish pressure resumes.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| intraday | intraweek | intraday | intraweek |
| 110.40 | 111.03 | 110.08 | 109.00 |
| 110.80 | 111.61 | 109.53 | 108.50 |
GBP/USD
Current level - 1.3905
The sterling is about to reverse the downtrend and a breach above the resistance of 1.3925 seems a likely scenario as the bears are noticeably losing strength, while the bulls are becoming more aggressive. It is possible that the market will briefly consolidate around the current levels before buyers try to breach 1.3925. The first support for them is the area between 1.3840-1.3860. The most substantial support remains 1.3750.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| intraday | intraweek | intraday | intraweek |
| 1.3925 | 1.4000 | 1.3860 | 1.3750 |
| 1.4000 | 1.4118 | 1.3795 | 1.3610 |











