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Australia’s monthly CPI accelerated from 2.8% yoy to 3.0% yoy in August, above expectations of 2.8% yoy and the highest reading since July 2024. The rise was driven by housing (+4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.0%), and alcohol and tobacco (+6.0%).

Core inflation showed stickier trends. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel rose from 3.2% yoy to 3.4% yoy. Trimmed mean edged down slightly to 2.6% from 2.7%, but remain well above June’s 2.1% yoy.

RBA is widely expected to hold interest rate unchanged next week. But the stronger core reading will keep November’s meeting live, with rate cut expectations now tempered by concerns that inflation may not be easing as quickly as hoped.

Full Australia monthly CPI release here.

Japan’s private sector lost momentum in September, with the flash PMI Composite slipping from 52.0 to 51.1, the weakest in four months. Manufacturing was the clear drag, with the headline index down from 49.7 to 48.4 and output falling from 49.8 to 47.3. Services held broadly steady at 53.0, down from 53.1.

S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes said services remain the “key growth engine,” offsetting a “deepening downturn” in manufacturing. Demand trends diverged sharply, with services seeing another solid rise in sales, but factories reporting the fastest drop in new orders since April.

Cost pressures also remain high. Input price inflation has eased from earlier in the year but is still consistent with a sharp rate overall, prompting firms to raise selling prices to protect margins. Companies were more cautious on hiring, with employment growth slowing to the weakest pace in two years.

Full Japan PMI flash release here.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a sharp downside correction from 1.3725.
• It traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3600 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD remained supported near 1.1720 and recovered some losses.
• Bitcoin dipped below $115,000 and is now at risk of more losses.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound struggled above 1.3700 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a fresh decline below 1.3650 and 1.3600 after the recent Fed rate cut.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3600 and then the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). The bears pushed the pair below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3333 swing low to the 1.3726 high.

GBP/USD tested the 1.3460 support zone and recently corrected some losses. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3550 level.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 1.3580. A close above 1.3580 could set the pace for a steady recovery wave. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 1.3640, above which the bulls could aim for a move toward 1.3680. Any more upsides could send the pair toward 1.3725.

On the downside, there is a key support at 1.3450. The next area of interest might be 1.3420 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1658 swing low to the 1.1918 high. The main support could be 1.3400. Any more losses might increase selling pressure and send GBP/USD toward 1.3255.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair found support near the 1.1720 zone and recently corrected some losses and avoided more downside.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US New Home Sales for Aug 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.1% versus -0.6% previous.
• BoE's Greene speech.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech overnight that the U.S. labor market is showing a “marked slowing” in both supply and demand, calling it an unusual and challenging development. He noted that job creation now appears to be running below the "breakeven" rate needed to keep unemployment rate stable, though other indicators such as job openings and claims remain broadly steady.

On inflation, Powell stressed that recent price pressures are largely tariff-driven rather than evidence of broad-based overheating. Disinflation in services, including housing, continues, and most longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored around the Fed’s 2% goal. Near-term expectations have edged higher on tariff headlines, but Powell argued these effects are likely to be transitory.

He described the tariff shock as a “one-time shift in the price level” that will be "spread over several quarters" as supply chains absorb higher costs.

Powell reaffirmed that Fed policy is "not on a preset course". Decisions will continue to depend on incoming data and the balance of risks, with the FOMC seeking to manage both slowing job growth and temporary tariff-related inflation without overreacting.

Full speech of Fed's Powell here.

Gold prices reached a new record high on Tuesday, helped by growing expectations of more US interest rate cuts. Investors were also waiting for a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to get more hints about future policy.

The price of spot gold went up 1% to $3,784.01 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $3,790.82 earlier in the day.

This optimism was partly due to new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who called for aggressive rate cuts on Monday. He argued that the Fed's current policy is too strict and could put jobs at risk. However, his view was challenged by three of his colleagues, who believe the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.

Miran's pro-rate cut stance increases the chances of more cuts, which is a positive sign for gold.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors believe there's a high chance of two more rate cuts of 0.25% each, one in October (90% chance) and another in December (73% chance).

The thing with Gold at the moment is how much longer can the rally possibly go? Now many investment banks and analysts have had to continuously update their price target this year. The problem is there is no historical data to look toward which could give us a sign of where the rally might end.

I have been looking over the past few weeks and have now found some interesting takeaways when looking at past bull rallies which mirror the current cycle.

Let us take a look.

Gold Bull Rallies From a Historical Context - 1970s, 2000s

Looking back at two periods historically paint an interesting picture. The first chart below looks at the period between September 1, 1976 to January 1, 1980 where Gold prices went on a parabolic rise from a low of $104/oz to a high of $875/oz. This equates to a gain of around 738.93% over a period of 1217 days (approximately 3 years and 4 months to complete this move).

Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView

This was followed by a multi-year retracement where Gold prices struggled throughout the 1980 and 1990s.

The next historic bull rally started around September 1, 1999 (note the rally started again in September. Coincidence?) until September 1 2011. This period saw Gold prices benefit from the Global Financial crisis as well.

The rally took Gold prices from $253/oz to a high of $1920/oz which is around a 657.47% increase. The major difference between this rally and the one in the 1970s is the timeframe. This particular rally took a total of 4383 days which equates to around 12 years.

Take a look at the chart example below.

Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView

Now looking at the current rally in Gold prices, and i am using the bottom in price from around January 4, 2016 when price hit a low of $1061/oz

Since then, Gold has been on a rally with gains totaling 257% over a period of 3529 days (just shy of 10 years) to reach a high of $3791/oz today.

Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView

This is quite an impressive rally to say the least. However, it remains some way of the other two rallies historically, so are we looking at a more protracted bull run for Gold?

Firstly comparing historical price moves is something I am a firm believer in. There is of course no guarantee that a similar story will always play out as the past and that also stems from the factors which are affecting prices.

For example in the 1970s, the rally began a few short years after the end of the Bretton Woods system. While the rally in the 2000s was fueled by the global financial crisis, post 2008.

The current rally has been fueled by a combination of many things and one of the reasons why I could see further upside materializing in the current rally. We have strong central bank buying, geopolitical risk, recessionary fears and a potential multi-year Fed easing cycle all forming a perfect cocktail for Gold prices to push on higher.

Now short-term corrections and pullbacks could materialize before Gold moves higher but for this we will have to monitor the lower timeframes for any possible signs.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.

I will personally be focusing on the whole numbers ahead of $3800, $3825, $3850 etc.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 23, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

As I sit down to pen this article, I’m met with a feeling of déjà vu.

The difference is that I have actually been here before, many times in the last few months, in fact, with silver seemingly hitting new highs every time I check my charts.

Naturally, this time is no different, with silver rocketing to new highs in yesterday’s trading, while handsomely outperforming its yellow counterpart, gold, in the last seven days.

As is almost tradition by now, let’s discuss some of the fundamentals responsible for the recent moves in precious metal pricing.

Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView,23/09/2025

Dust settles on dovish Fed, boosting silver prices

Let’s start by establishing a fundamental economic concept: in a total vacuum, lower interest rates benefit non-yielding assets like silver, since the opportunity cost for holding precious metals compared to cash is reduced.

So, why did the recent Federal Reserve rate cut hurt silver pricing?

The devil is, of course, in the details.

Naturally, nothing in the market is black and white; in this case, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the cut as a ‘risk-management’ cut rather than a response to a weakening economy.

This would be a much more hawkish stance than previously thought, which, at least at first, would seriously temper expectations that this would mark the first cut of a deep-cutting cycle.

Considering the predicted trajectory of Fed interest rates before this, generally pegged at two further cuts before year-end, even the slightest suggestion that rates could be kept higher not only weakened demand for precious metals, but also simultaneously strengthened the dollar.

What’s happened since then, however, is a textbook example of reaction versus response.

Silver (XAG/USD) & DXY, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 23/09/2025

Having had time to digest, it would seem that the market uncertainty has all but dissipated, with the recent rally in silver pricing a shining example.

While Powell’s recent ‘risk-management’ comments can’t be ignored, against the backdrop of recent US labour and GDP data, the numbers otherwise point to further rate cuts, assuming inflation remains under control.

While it would be fair to say that the financial markets’ collective hive mind is not always known for robust decision-making in light of shock economic news, the dust has now settled, with the narrative around Fed monetary policy returning essentially to the dovish angle held ahead of the recent decision.

CME FedWatch, OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025

This goes double when considering dissent from FOMC member Stephen Miran, who voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut in the most recent decision, showing some support for further rate cuts already exists amongst decision-makers.

Strong fundamentals bolster silver prices

At risk of repeating myself from previous coverage, here’s a quick-fire round on the macro themes responsible for the current rally:

1. Questions remain on sovereign debt, especially in United States, with the recent downgrade in credit rating fresh in the collective memory. Similar to 2011, uncertainty on the long-term solvency of major world economies, especially with no shortage of radical US policy changes, directly benefits silver pricing
2. Silver demand continues to outstrip supply, which in and of itself is a relatively new phenomenon. Used both as a store of value and across industry alike, the recent classification of silver as a ‘critical mineral’ by the US Government further cements its use case on a significant scale. In line with the most basic principles of economic theory, if demand cannot be met by supply, prices rise, as seen particularly of recent
3. Usually lumped under the moniker of ‘safe-haven flows’, precious metals like silver are often used as a reliable store of value in times of economic uncertainty. In 2025, there has been no shortage in demand for safe-haven assets, with increased geopolitical tensions, questions on sovereign debt, and, of course, US trade tariffs, all making valuable contributions
4. Less so a macroeconomic factor, more so a consequence of the above, a weakening dollar has helped extend the current rally in precious metal pricing, since precious metals are typically priced in USD. So far, 2025 remains on record as one of the U.S. dollar’s worst-performing years in some time, helping boost silver prices

In a nutshell, and owing to the rock-solid fundamentals, markets have clearly shown their preference for higher silver pricing this year, with current prices on pace for their best percentage performance since 2010.

Since late August, it would appear that markets are ready to metaphorically bite the hand off any opportunity to push precious metals higher, with no obvious signs of slowing down any time soon.

Silver XAG/USD: Technical Analysis 23/09/2025

Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025

• Renewing multi-year highs recently, XAG/USD currently trades toward the upper boundary of the upwards channel. Price may need to retrace lower before an attempt higher, with bulls likely to target $45 first, then onto $45.69
• According to the ADX, current trend strength is at its highest level since June 2024, suggesting conviction in market direction. For the contrarians, shorts should be approached with extreme caution

EURCAD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURCAD reversed from key support level 1.6200
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6365

EURCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.6200 (former monthly high from August) intersecting with the 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from the start of September.

The upward reversal from the support level 1.6200 continues the active impulse wave 3 which belongs to the extended upward impulse sequence (5) from May.

Given the clear daily uptrend, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.6365 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI crude oil reversed up from the key support level 61.70
• Likely to rise to resistance level 65.00

WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 61.70 (which has been reversing the price from the start of August) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from the support level 61.70 will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – if the price closes today near the current levels.

Given the strength of the support level 61.70, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.00 (which stopped earlier waves a, 2 and ii).

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he sees scope for interest rates to come down “a fair amount” over time if stagflation risks fade, though the adjustment should be "gradual". Speaking to CNBC, he suggested neutral rate is 100–125bps below the current 4.00–4.25% range, implying a longer-run policy level around 3%.

Goolsbee stressed that inflation risks remain real, noting price growth has been above target for more than four years. He cautioned against being “overly upfront aggressive” with rate cuts despite growing confidence that inflation can ease back toward 2%.

At the same time, he highlighted that the labor market is cooling at a “mild to modest” pace, providing room for cautious policy adjustment.