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• AUD/USD rotates near 20-SMA as Australian inflation heads higher.
• Short-term signals are encouraging; a close above 0.6540 could secure more gains.

AUD/USD accelerated into the 0.6200 zone early on Wednesday on news that Australia’s monthly CPI inflation surged the fastest in a year to reach again the upper band of the RBA's range target of 3.0% in August from 2.8% previously.

The data suggest little urgency for the RBA to cut interest rates at its September 29–30 meeting, as the unemployment rate continues to hover near record lows. However, investors still believe the cautious rate-cut cycle could resume in November.

The technical picture is also favoring the bulls. The pair has decisively rebounded from its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), increasing the odds of another acceleration toward the 0.6700 level. Still, traders may stay patient until the price breaks above the nearby 0.6620 barrier – aligned with July’s peak and a broken support trendline – before targeting higher levels. Adding to the positive signals is the RSI which is looking ready to pivot near its 50 neutral mark, while the Stochastic oscillator appears to have bottomed in oversold territory, both endorsing the positive momentum.

A move beyond September’s near one-year high could initially test the 0.6755 zone before the 0.6800 psychological threshold.

On the downside, only a drop below the 50-day SMA at 0.6540 could trigger aggressive selling toward the double-bottom area at 0.6415, formed in July–August. Notably, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous long downtrend and the 200-day SMA are also in the neighborhood.

Overall, AUD/USD is setting the ground for its next bullish wave, though the bulls may need to recharge near 0.6620 before attempting a sustained continuation higher.

The minor corrective pull-back of -2% seen in the AUD/USD ex-post FOMC from 17 September 2025 high of 0.6707 to 22 September 2025 low of 0.6575 has reached an inflection point to kick-start a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence.

Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

In today’s Asia session, the Australian dollar outperformed all major peers against the greenback. On a 1-day rolling basis as of 24 September 2025, the US dollar slipped -0.4% versus the AUD, outpacing the modest -0.1% intraday decline in the US Dollar Index (see Fig. 1).

The AUD’s intraday strength was underpinned by Australia’s latest CPI report, which showed August inflation accelerating to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in July, beating expectations of 2.9%. This marks the highest reading since July 2024, a 13-month high.

Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis factors of the AUD/USD to decipher its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key levels to watch.

Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 0.6655 before a retest on the major resistance of 0.6680/0.6700 (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• The major resistance of the AUD/USD stands at 0.6700, which is defined by the upper boundary of the multi-month “Expanding Wedge” range configuration in place since 24 April 2025 (see Fig. 3).
• The 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the rising 20-day moving average that managed to stall the prior three days of decline in the AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has staged a bullish momentum breakout from its former descending resistance (see Fig 2).
• The yield spread between Australia’s 2-year sovereign bond and its US Treasury counterpart narrowed from -0.21% on 23 September 2025 to -0.10% at the time of writing. This contraction in the US yield premium has added support to bullish momentum in AUD/USD (see Fig 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below 0.6580 key short-term support negates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to expose the 0.6555 medium-term pivotal support.

Gold price started a fresh surge above $3,750 and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $64.30 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price rallied to a new all-time high and traded close to $3,800 against the US Dollar.
• A short-term bullish flag pattern is forming with resistance at $3,770 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above $62.60.
• There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near $63.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near $3,625. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $3,660, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the price above $3,750 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded to a new all-time high at $3,791. The price is now consolidating gains below $3,770 and the RSI is above 50.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,627 swing low to the $3,791 high at $3,750 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

A downside break below $3,750 could start a larger downside correction. In the stated case, Gold could drop toward the 50% Fib retracement at $3,710. The next area of interest for the bulls might be $3,690. A daily close below $3,690 could spark bearish moves and send the price to $3,625.

If there is a fresh increase, the price could face resistance at $3,770 and a short-term bullish flag pattern. The next sell zone might be $3,790. An upside break above the $3,790 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,820. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase to $3,850.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price found support near $61.60 against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $62.60 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $64.32 swing high to the $61.58 swing low. The hourly RSI is above the 60 level, but the price is struggling near $63.65.

Besides, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near $63.65. It coincides with the 76.4% Fib retracement. A close above the trend line resistance might send the price toward the $64.32 high.

The next hurdle could be $65.00. A clear move above $65.00 could send the price toward $66.25. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of $68.00.

Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from $63.65. Immediate support sits near $62.95. The key breakdown zone on the WTI crude oil chartmight be $62.60 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $62.60. Any more losses might encourage the bears for a push toward the $61.58 low.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8719; (P) 0.8733; (R1) 0.8748; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 0.8631 is in progress for retesting 0.8752 high. Firm break there will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.8877, which is close to 0.8867 fibonacci level. On the downside, though, below 0.8707 minor support will turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8518) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7812; (P) 1.7850; (R1) 1.7916; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the upside, break of 1.7929 temporary top will resume the rebound from 1.7588 to retest 1.8155 high. Firm break there will resume the whole rise from 1.7245. However, break of 1.7588 will resume the fall from 1.8155 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 174.04; (P) 174.38; (R1) 174.80; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the upside with break of 174.48 temporary top. Further rise should be seen to retest 175.41 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 173.45 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 172.11 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. However, sustained break of 169.69 support will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.27; (P) 199.53; (R1) 199.89; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 201.24. Further rise is expected as long as 197.93 support holds. Firm break of 201.24 will target 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. However, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and 4H MACD, firm break of 197.93 will indicate bearish reversal and bring deeper fall back to 195.01 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9341; (P) 0.9349; (R1) 0.9358; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.9354 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 0.9394 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9311 will resume the fall from 0.9452 to 0.9265 support.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3815; (P) 1.3832; (R1) 1.3853; More...

USD/CAD is still bounded in range of 1.3725/3889 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3889 resistance will suggest that the corrective rebound from 1.3538 is resuming, and further rise should be seen through 1.3923 high towards 1.4014 cluster resistance. However, decisive break of 1.3725 will indicate that the corrective rebound has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 (2025 high) at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6581; (P) 0.6599; (R1) 0.6616; More...

Despite breaching 0.6622 minor resistance. momentum of AUD/USD's recovery is so far weak. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 0.6574 will resume the fall from 0.6706 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6544). Firm break there will target 0.6413 support. On the upside, however, decisive break of 0.6713 fibonacci level will resume rally from 0.5913, and carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and path the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.