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BoE MPC member Megan Greene said in a speech overnight that UK inflation remains an outlier among developed peers, with headline CPI running above target for over four years and rising again over the past year. She noted that disinflation has been concentrated in rate-sensitive sectors, suggesting "the bulk of disinflation may have already come through", while labor market slack has emerged.

Greene argued that the data has the “hallmark of an adverse supply shock,” but said second-round wage effects are unlikely to pose major risks as the labor market loosens. She added that while risks from trade persist, they have eased somewhat, and GDP growth is expected to rebound without a sharp deterioration in jobs.

She stressed two lessons from recent supply shocks: when inflation persistence is uncertain, policymakers should prioritize inflation to prevent it from becoming entrenched, and that prices may respond faster than output when inflation is elevated.

Against that backdrop, she said "an appropriate response to the uncertainty and risks we are currently facing should involve a cautious approach to rate cuts going forward", reinforcing her vote last week to keep Bank Rate at 4%.

Full speech of BoE's Greene here.

WTI oil price rises for the second straight day, underpinned by renewed supply concerns and drop in US weekly crude inventories (API report on Tuesday -3.82 mln bls vs 3.64 mln bls previous week).

Oil advanced over 3% in past two days, following formation of Morning Doji Star reversal pattern on daily chart.

Bulls cracked important barriers at $64.27/37 (Fibo 61.8% of $66.01/$61.46 / Sep 16 recovery peak) but may face increased headwinds from nearby base of very thick daily Ichimoku cloud ($64.62). Technical picture on daily chart is mixed as positive momentum studies are countered by formation of 55/100DMA bear cross and pressure from daily cloud.

Two scenarios are currently in play, the fist one sees failure to close above recent range top ($64.37) that will keep the price within the range, although with slight bullish alignment as long as the price holds above $63.40 zone.

This scenario looks favored for now as daily cloud weighs on price and may temporarily sideline bulls.

The second scenario includes break of range top and penetration of daily cloud, which would generate positive signals of break above the range, recovery continuation and formation of higher base at $61.50 zone.

Res: 64.62; 64.94; 65.10; 66.01
Sup: 63.73; 63.40; 63.00; 62.53

USDCAD: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCAD reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3900l

USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the pivotal support level 1.3715 (which has been reversing the price from the start of August) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

This support area was further strengthened by the support trendline of the daily up channel from July and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.

USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next resistance level 1.3900.

EURGBP: ⬇️ Sell

• EURGBP reversed from strong resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 0.8700

EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone between the multi-month resistance level 0.8735 (which has been reversing the price from April) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the earlier upward impulse wave iii from the start of Septembers.

Given the strength of the resistance level 0.8735 and the overbought daily Stochastic, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8700.

Today’s energy story centered on Europe’s gradual but firm shift from Russian oil.

Recent headlines have circled back to the fact that some EU nations were still discreetly buying Russian barrels, prompting Trump’s blunt remark at the UN — that they are “funding the war against themselves.”

Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s reliance on Russian energy has declined considerably, but hasn’t been reduced to zero as promised.

The Trump administration has been moving to sanction Russian oil buyers more aggressively, tightening the screws on Moscow’s revenues to pressure their capacity to pursue the conflict.

As a matter of fact, Trump recently mentioned Hungary that Hungary will “soon stop buying Russian oil" in that same United Nations speech.

WTI prices have reflected the shift in the market, with two consecutive sessions of 1% up-moves suggesting traders are preparing for higher prices sourced from elsewhere as the supply of “cheap Russian oil” continues to shrink, at least for western nations.

About the Ukraine conflict itself, momentum seems to have tilted further toward Kyiv.

President Zelenskiy said US support under Trump could even sway China’s role in the conflict, while Trump himself doubled down, stating that with the EU’s backing, “Ukraine is in a position to fight, win, and take all of Ukraine back.”

In the meantime, let's examine a few key charts for US Oil (WTI) to see where prices could be heading in the current situation.

US Oil Daily Chart

US Oil Daily Chart, September 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView

As can be seen on the daily picture, Oil prices have gradually recessed since the mid-June Middle East war spikes.

Since, a July range, followed by gradual step-by-step price corrections have taken Oil back into just above its May range.

Momentum is still increasing, forming higher lows and bulls will have to push above the 50-Day Moving Average.

Having failed to close above this key technical indicator since the 4th of August (despite many breakout attempts), any break higher followed by a session close should see further continuation. Let's take a closer look

WTI Oil 4H Chart

US Oil 4H Chart, September 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Moving averages could provide further information on the current move and explain why the preceding breakout attempts mentioned in our previous articles have failed to hold.

Indeed, the fundamentals had stayed the same (Russian war continuing and buyers were still actively buying) – Therefore a close above the pivot point was found with sharp rejection.

The technical element to look for could be the 4H-200 period MA: The freshly closed 4H candle was a strong bull one closing at its highs and it seems that there is ongoing continuation.

To confirm the ongoing breakout, a further continuation above the 50-day MA mentioned just before will be necessary.

If not, expect the current $62 to $65 range to hold.

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels

• Higher timeframe pivot $65 to $66
• Shorter timeframe Consolidation Highs ($64.35 to $65 testing)
• 50-Day MA $64.93
• July mid-range $67 resistance

Support Levels

• Shorter timeframe Consolidation Lows ($62 to 62.50)
• 4H MA-200 63.80
• Current consolidation lows $61.84 to $62
• $60.5 Low of May Range

US Oil 1H Chart

US Oil 1H Chart, September 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Looking even closer to the 1H timeframe, momentum seems to get close to overbought but the daily action holding within a tight bull channel, there is still potential for a breakout.

Follow the latest geopolitical news closely (particularly with new tariffs on Europe oil buying) and NATO potentially responding to the freshest menaces from Russia.

Safe Trades!

Markets

US and EMU yields apparently are some kind of deadlocked. However, the stalemate is due to different reasons. In Europe, the basic assumption is that the ECB has finished its easing cycle. Big and sustained data surprises overthrowing the ECB projections are needed for the bank to leave its wait-and-see modus. A mediocre German IFO business confidence (87.7 from 88.9, with both current assessment and expectations weaker/weaker than expected) isn’t enough to unsettle this balance. German yields today change less than 1 bp. US markets post-Fed also still are looking for a clear direction. However, over here, its a lack of visibility that currently translates into a ‘more erratic trading pattern’. For US markets, the key question is how the Fed will prioritize its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Fed Chair Powell yesterday reiterated that the Fed last week took a risk management approach. However, in the current usual context of upside inflation risks and downside labour market risks, the Fed Chair admitted that there is no risk-free path. The Fed and even more markets, can be wrongfooted by any surprise outcome of important data. Next reference is Friday’s August PCE inflation data. US yields are trading between unchanged (2-y with benchmark change) and 2.5 bps further out on the curve.

The stalemate in interest rate markets keeps the major dollar cross rates locked in tight ranges. Daily gyrations mostly are driven by technical considerations or tell more about swings in short-term mood rather than any eco news. Post last week’s FOMC the dollar tested key technical support levels, but a break didn’t occur as the path/pace of further Fed rate cuts easing was too uncertain. After some hesitancy earlier this week, the dollar today again outperforms. We didn’t see any obvious trigger. DXY jumps from 97.25 to 97.85. USD/JPY rebounds from 147.65 to 148.65. EUR/USD eases from 1.1815 to 1.1740. Central European currencies (CZK and even more the forint and the zloty) underperform. This probably has to do with president Trump yesterday advocating a more decisive NATO response against Russian aircraft violating airspace in (Eastern) Europe. The Czech National Bank today as expected left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and reiterated that a relatively tight policy is still needed.

Global markets for sure aren’t in an outright risk off modus. Still European equities feel some resistance (EuroStoxx 50 -0.2%) as the March top is again coming within reach. US equities open marginally higher after a mild setback yesterday. Fed Chair Powell assessed stocks to be ‘fairly highly valued’. Admittedly, at the same time he also indicated that ‘it’s not a time of elevated financial stability risks’.

News & Views

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration is discussing a $20 billion swap line with Argentina and added that the country stands ready to buy up Argentina’s dollar bonds. Assets in the Latin American country, including the peso, have been sliding in recent weeks. Selling pressures piled up following a weak outcome by its president Milei in local elections in Buenos Aires, suggesting the libertarian’s popularity is ebbing going into the October 26 mid-term elections. Talk of US support gained traction on Monday and would give Milei “a bridge to the election”, Bessent said. The Argentine peso in two days strengthened from USD/ARS 1409.8 back to the levels prior to the Buenos Aires elections.

The National Bank of Belgium’s business confidence indicator continued to rise in September, from -8.9 to -7.9, the highest since April 2023. Confidence grew in all sectors, most markedly in the building industry thanks to growth in orders and a considerably more favourable assessment of order book levels. The manufacturing industry became marginally more optimistic as well, driven by upward revisions of expectations concerning demand and employment. A significantly less favourable assessment of current activity was more than offset by more optimistic expectations for business activity and overall market demand in the business-related services sector. Confidence in the trade sector, lastly, grew thanks to improved expectations regarding orders to suppliers.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1789; (P) 1.1805; (R1) 1.1829; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 1.1724 will resume the fall from 1.1917 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1668). Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that 1.1917 is already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next. However, sustained break of 1.1917 will resume larger up trend to 1.2 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1214).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3496; (P) 1.3517; (R1) 1.3546; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3725 resumed by breaking through 1.3451 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. Corrective pattern from 1.3787 is in the third leg, and deeper fall should be seen to 1.3332 support first. On the upside, above 1.3535 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress, and would target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. However, with 1.4248 resistance (2021 high) intact, this rally is more likely a corrective move. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3157) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7897; (P) 0.7925; (R1) 0.7940; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 0.7971 will resume the rebound from 0.7828 short term bottom to 0.8006 resistance. Firm break there will bring stronger rise back to 0.8170. On the downside though, below 0.7904 minor support will bring retest of 0.7828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).