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This morning (without any clear catalyst) the cryptocurrency market has shown an extremely worrying dynamic – primarily affecting altcoins. Within just a few hours, the following declines were recorded (approximate figures):

→ BTC/USD: down 2.5%;

→ ETH/USD: на 7%;

→ DOGE/USD: на 10%.

It is possible that market participants were readjusting their positions after the weekend, assessing the impact of recent central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. At the same time, the excessive use of leverage – a common feature of crypto markets – may have triggered cascading long liquidations. Will the decline continue?

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

On 11 September, while analysing Bitcoin’s chart, we updated the long-term blue channel and suggested that:

→ Bitcoin’s price remains in a corrective phase (highlighted by the red channel) within the broader global uptrend, with a bull flag pattern forming;

→ bulls are still dominant, though their momentum could be weakening.

Against this backdrop, today’s decline appears to be the result of insufficient bullish momentum to break through the upper boundary of the flag and resume growth within the blue channel.

Resistance was provided by the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, plotted from the bearish impulse A→B.

What followed was a weak rebound (a dead cat bounce pattern) from the lower boundary of the September upward trajectory (as indicated by the arrow), confirming the fading strength of buyers. Further declines accompanied by expanding bearish candles and higher volumes are a textbook sign of imbalance in favour of sellers.

Therefore, we have grounds to conclude that:

→ bears have forcefully asserted control over the psychological $115k level;

→ bulls are retreating towards the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel.

Given the above, we could assume that over the next 1–3 weeks the BTC/USD rate may consolidate within a broad zone, forming an S-R triangle.

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AUD/USD failed to stay in a positive zone and declined below 0.6650. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5845.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above 0.6680 against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6610 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from 0.6000 and traded below 0.5900.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5860 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear 0.6700. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below 0.6650 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6600. A low was formed at 0.6581 and the pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6706 swing high to the 0.6581 low.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near a connecting bearish trend line at 0.6610 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major hurdle for the bulls could be near 0.6645 and the 50% Fib retracement.

The main selling point could be 0.6660, above which the price could rise toward 0.6690. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6700. A close above 0.6700 could start another steady increase in the near term. In the stated case, the next key resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6750.

On the downside, initial support is near 0.6580. The next area of interest might be 0.6550. If there is a downside break below 0.6550, the pair could extend its decline. The next target for the bears might be 0.6500. Any more losses might send the pair toward 0.6420.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6000 zone. The New Zealand Dollar moved down and traded below 0.5950 against the US Dollar.

The pair settled below 0.5920 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested 0.5845 and is currently consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5860.

If the pair recovers, it could face hurdles near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6007 swing high to the 0.5846 low at 0.5885 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major barrier is at 0.5925 since it coincides with the 50% Fib retracement. If there is a move above 0.5925, the pair could rise toward 0.5945. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 0.5990 in the coming days.

On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.5845 level. The next major stop for the bears might be 0.5800. If there is a downside break below 0.5800, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.5750. The main target for the bears could be 0.5720.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1718; (P) 1.1756; (R1) 1.1782; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.1917 short term top should continued to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1657). Considering bearish divergence condition in D EMA, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that 1.1917 is already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next. On the upside, though, above 1.1793 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1214).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.35; (P) 147.82; (R1) 148.43; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Current development suggests that rise from 139.87 might still be in progress. On the upside, break of 149.12 will bring stronger rally to retest 150.90 high. However, break of 145.47 will resume the fall from 150.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3436; (P) 1.3498; (R1) 1.3533; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3725 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3787 high. Further fall should be seen to 1.3332 support first. Break there will bring deeper fall to 1.3140. On the upside, though, above 1.3561 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress, and would target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. However, with 1.4248 resistance (2021 high) intact, this rally is more likely a corrective move. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3157) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7917; (P) 0.7942; (R1) 0.7978; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.7828 short term bottom is in progress for 0.8006 resistance. Firm break there will bring stronger rise back to 0.8170. On the downside though, below 0.7904 minor support will bring retest of 0.7828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6580; (P) 0.6600; (R1) 0.6614; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.6706 short term top should target 55 D EMA (now at 0.6540). Firm break there will target 0.6413 support. On the upside, though above 0.6622 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.6706 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and path the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3758; (P) 1.3791; (R1) 1.3814; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and more consolidations would be seen first. On the upside, break of 1.3889 resistance will suggest that the corrective rebound from 1.3538 is resuming, and further rise should be seen through 1.3923 high towards 1.4014 cluster resistance. However, decisive break of 1.3725 will indicate that the corrective rebound has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 (2025 high) at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9335; (P) 0.9346; (R1) 0.9356; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.9354 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 0.9394 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9311 will resume the fall from 0.9452 to 0.9265 support.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.80; (P) 199.72; (R1) 200.24; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen first. Further rise is expected as long as 197.93 support holds. Firm break of 201.24 will target 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. However, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and 4H MACD, firm break of 197.93 will indicate bearish reversal and bring deeper fall back to 195.01 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.