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There are signs that oil prices are attempting to bottom out at around $61 per barrel for WTI and $65 per barrel for Brent. In the middle of last week and at the start of trading on Monday, local lows were touched, last seen in early June. However, the local rebound does not look convincing, indicating instead a pause in the decline within the downward movement inside a two-year descending channel.

Fundamental data from the US also remained largely unchanged. The number of oil rigs rose to 412, compared to 411 and 410 in the last couple of weeks.

Commercial stocks remain close to year-ago levels and close to the average for the last 12 weeks. Average daily production levels are close to 13.3 million barrels per day. The US first reached these levels at the end of 2023, after which we saw a plateau in production, fluctuating between 13.6 and 13.2 million.

At the same time, oil is becoming more abundant due to the restoration of OPEC+ supplies. The latest announcement of plans for September returns quotas to pre-November 2023 ‘voluntary reduction’ levels. OPEC+ refers to an oil deficit in its calculations, while the IEA notes the fifth month of inventory growth in July. This process is likely to gain momentum from September onwards, unless there is an acceleration in global economic growth.

Meanwhile, natural gas production in the US is setting records and contributing to the energy surplus.

The difficult situation for oil is also indicated by the reluctance of this commodity to respond to the growth in risk appetite in recent weeks, when hopes for monetary policy easing pushed markets to historic highs.

In such conditions, it is reasonable to expect oil prices to continue drifting downward, with the potential to renew the lows of early May — $55 for WTI and $58 for Brent — before the end of September. In the fourth quarter of this year, the price may well test the lower boundary of the downward channel, setting these lows another $5 below those of May.

Markets

Friday’s European bear steepening trend took a breather today. Changes on the German yield curve range between -1 bp (2-yr) and -2.7 bps (30-yr). The German 30-yr yield holds above previous technical resistance (3.26%). Last week’s steepening could have been somewhat in anticipation of the Trump-Putting meeting in Alaska with European markets starting to contemplate some kind of reflationary rebuilding vibes. While US President Trump touted the summit a “10 out of 10”in a post-meeting interview, no formal agreement was reached: “There’s no deal until there’s a deal”. A first follow-up meeting takes place in Washington today as Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO president Rutte and several other EU leaders. Security guarantees for Ukraine even without full NATO membership are high on the (European) agenda as well as setting up a three-way summit out of this conflict. Territorial concessions are probably the key to unlock the stalemate, but remain strongly opposed by Kyiv. Chances on a near-term breakthrough seem small though. The US dollar is marginally stronger today with EUR/USD drifting back below 1.17, but holding within the narrow 1.16-1.18 range in place since the start of Summer (only temporarily breached on FOMC-payrolls combo end July/early August).

Today’s eco calendar is uninspiring. Tomorrow unfortunately has little to offer neither. The first meaningful release are Wednesday’s UK inflation numbers. UK (money) markets have been retreating on additional BoE rate cut bets for this year after this month’s hawkish (close call) 25 bps rate cut. New CPI projections suggested UK inflation to peak at higher levels in September (4% instead of 3.7%), making it even difficult to stick to the current gradual quarterly cutting pace. Odds for such move fell to as low as 30%. It created some short term breathing space for sterling with EUR/GBP testing 0.86 support last week. Medium prospects for the UK currency remain weak though with fiscal issues and vulnerability in the Gilt market likely to pop up again in autumn. Global PMI surveys are due on Thursday but are overshadowed by this week’s main event: Fed chair Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. The key question being whether he prepares markets for a policy turn at the September 17 FOMC meeting, ie backing gradual rate cuts to counter downside risks to the Fed’s maximum employment mandate instead of sticking with the current stability to fight upside inflation risks. We fear Powell will keep his cards close to his chest. The jury remains out on the issue with payrolls (Sept 5) and CPI (Sept 11) reports likely to be decisive. A 25 bps rate cut is the base scenario.

News & Views

Rating agency Fitch this morning confirmed New Zealand’s AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook. The agency mentions a commitment to prudent fiscal policies across the county’s political spectrum even as the government in its May 2025 budget statement indicated it would only return to fiscal balance by the fiscal year ending 2029. Fitch expects the budget deficit to gradually decline to 3.6% of GDP in 2027 from around 4.2% in FY 25 and FY 26 on expenditure restraint and a cyclical recovery. Regarding the debt level, Fitch projections build in a large 3 ppts of GDP improvement between TY 26 and FY 29. After rising from 51% in 2025 to a peak of 56% in 2027, Fitch expects GG debt resuming a strong downward trend. The rating agency expects 1.2% GDP growth in 2025, to pick up to 2.5% in 2026 and 2026. Exports to the US account for only 2% of GDP, limiting the economy’s vulnerability to higher tariffs. Inflation in Q2 rose slightly to 2.7%, but Fitch still expects the RBNZ to cut its policy rate by a further 25bps to 3% this year. Fitch mentions external debt to remain elevated compared the median of this rating category. The current account deficit narrowed to a still high 6.1% of GDP in 2024.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) today published its calculations for core inflation for the month of July. Inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.3% M/M and 3.3% Y/Y (from 3.4%). The measure excluding administered prices printed at 0.2% M/M and 2.7% Y/Y (from 2.5%) . The measure excluding the most volatile prices was 0.6% M/M and 3.9% Y/Y (from 4.5%). The headline figure was already released earlier at 0.3% M/M and 3.1% Y/Y. As such it returned within the NBP’s 2.5% +/- 1.% inflation tolerance band. The National Bank of Poland reduced its policy rate by 25 bps to 5% at the early July meeting. The next meeting is scheduled for September 3rd. The zloty strengthened slightly today (EUR/PLN 4.251) but recently held in a very tight sideways consolidation pattern. (EUR/PLN 4.235/4.2875).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1662; (P) 1.1689; (R1) 1.1731; More...

EUR/USD extending sideway trading below 1.1729 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1589 support holds. Above 1.1729 will bring retest of 1.1829 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.1589 will turn bias to the downside, and extend the corrective pattern from 1.1829 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3532; (P) 1.3553; (R1) 1.3581; More...

GBP/USD is extending consolidations below 1.3594 and intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper pullback might be seen but downside should be contained well above 1.3398 support. On the upside, break of 1.3594 will resume the rise from 1.3140 to retest 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3090) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7997; (P) 0.8040; (R1) 0.8110; More….

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.61; (P) 147.29; (R1) 147.83; More...

USD/JPY recovers notably in early US session but stays well inside range of 146.20/148.51. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 148.51 will indicate that the pullback from 150.90 has completed, and bring retest of this high. This will also keep the whole rise from 139.87 alive. However, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that the rebound from 139.87 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Trading across global markets is subdued today, with Asia and the West pulling in different directions. Japan’s Nikkei hit a fresh record high, but European equities and US futures slipped modestly, leaving overall sentiment sluggish.

Some attention is turning to Washington, where US President Donald Trump hosts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, followed by joint talks with European leaders. The effort is framed as a bid to advance toward ending the war in Ukraine, but expectations remain muted. Observers stress that negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US are still in their infancy. Trump’s recent meeting with Putin showed how entrenched positions remain, making it clear that the road to even a ceasefire will be long and fraught. Markets are tempering hopes accordingly.

In FX, Yen came under renewed selling pressure as the US session commences, making it the day’s weakest performer, followed by Euro and Sterling. A focus is on whether USD/JPY can break above 148.51 resistance, which would confirm the pullback from 150.90 has ended and open the way for a broader Yen decline. By contrast, Loonie is leading gains, followed by Kiwi and Aussie. Dollar and Swiss Franc are trading in the middle of the pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.09%. DAX is down -0.32%. CAC is down -0.80%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.002 at 4.698. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.029 at 2.761. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.77%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.37%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.85%. Singapore Strait Times fell -1.02%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.006 to 1.572.

EU exports stagnate as US, China imports surge

Eurozone recorded a EUR 7.0B surplus in goods trade in June, as modest export growth was outpaced by stronger imports. Exports ticked up 0.4% yoy to EUR 237.2B, while imports jumped 6.8% yoy to EUR 230.2B.

Across the EU as a whole, goods surplus narrowed to EUR 8.0B. Exports held steady at EUR 213.7B, but imports rose 6.4% yoy to EUR 205.7B.

Trade with major partners showed contrasting trends. EU exports to the US and China dropped sharply, down -10.3% yoy and -12.7% yoy, while exports to the UK grew 7.4% yoy.

At the same time, imports from the US and China surged by 16.4% yoy and 167% yoy respectively, while UK shipments into the EU declined -3.6% yoy.

NZ BNZ services uptick to 48.9, contraction persists

New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index improved slightly in July, rising from 47.6 to 48.9. But the sector remained in contraction for the sixth consecutive month. Also, the latest reading is still well below the long-run survey average of 52.9.

Details showed mixed conditions. Activity/Sales stayed in contraction at 47.5, and New Orders stalled at 50.0. On the positive side, Inventories expanded for the second month at 51.4. Employment component slid to 47.1, extending its losing streak to 20 months.

Business sentiment, while slightly less negative, continued to reflect difficult conditions. Around 58.5% of comments were pessimistic, down from 66.2% in June. Firms pointed to declining sales, reduced spending, and persistent cost-of-living pressures. Inflation, high interest rates, weather disruptions, staffing shortages, and global uncertainty all weighed on confidence.

NZD/USD stuck in falling channel as RBNZ shadow board splits

NZD/USD is trading quietly within range, with investors cautious ahead of RBNZ’s policy decision this Wednesday. Market consensus is for a 25bps cut, though the NZIER Shadow Board revealed a broad spread of opinions, from a 50bps reduction to no move at all. The diversity highlights some uncertainty surrounding the policy outlook.

According to the Shadow Board, the case for a cut is backed by persistent slack in the labor market and subdued domestic activity. Still, near-term inflation pressures complicate the picture. While one board member argued for a more aggressive 50bps cut to support growth, two stressed the risks of loosening again with price pressures still elevated.

Looking further ahead, views on the OCR in 12 months are diverse, from no additional easing to further cuts required. One member sees strong commodity prices and lower rates supporting activity, with inflation potentially rising toward the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band. That backdrop suggests patience may be prudent. Though, two members maintain the economy will still need further stimulus beyond August.

Technically, NZD/USD remains mildly bearish as its stays confined within the near-term falling channel. Rebound from 0.5855 appears to have topped out at 0.5995. Fall from there is seen as another leg of the decline from 0.6119.

Structurally, while the pullback from 0.6119 looks corrective, risks are skewed toward another dip. A slide to 50% retracement of 0.5484 to 0.6119 at 0.5802 is in favor before NZD/USD finds a firmer base.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.61; (P) 147.29; (R1) 147.83; More...

USD/JPY recovers notably in early US session but stays well inside range of 146.20/148.51. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 148.51 will indicate that the pullback from 150.90 has completed, and bring retest of this high. This will also keep the whole rise from 139.87 alive. However, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that the rebound from 139.87 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude futures) fell as expected, dropping -3.2% to a three-month low of US$62.19 on Wednesday, 13 August 2025. The decline came ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday, 18 August, where talks are set to focus on a potential ceasefire to end the three-year Russia-Ukraine war.

West Texas Oil CFD extended its decline in today’s Asia session, slipping -0.7% intraday following last Friday’s Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska to print a current intraday low of US$62.47 at this time of writing.

While President Trump described the talks as “productive,” he provided no details on a potential Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. Markets now turn their focus to today’s meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, several European leaders, and Trump for further developments.

Let’s examine the latest short-term technical elements in the West Texas Oil CFD and its short-term directional bias (1 to 3 days) from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 18 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bearish bias in West Texas Oil CFD with key short-term pivotal resistance at US$63.85/64.18 and break below US$62.50 reinforces the continuation of a potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$61.30 (gap of 2 June 2025) and US$60.60/60.10 (Fibonacci extension and lower boundary of minor descending channel from 31 July 2025 high).

Key elements

• Price actions of the West Texas Oil CFD have continued to oscillate within a minor descending channel from the 31 July 2025 swing high of US$71.33, which suggests a minor downtrend phase remains intact.
• The upper boundary of the minor descending channel is acting as a key intermediate resistance at US$54.18.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bullish divergence condition in today’s Asia session and has just staged a retreat right at the 50 level. These observations suggest that short-term bearish momentum remains intact.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A clearance above US$64.18 invalidates the bearish scenario and triggers a possible mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at US$64.85, US$65.60, and US$66.30 (also the downward sloping 20-day moving average).

Gold price edged higher in early Monday, as uncertainty grows ahead of today’s meeting between President Trump and leaders of Ukraine and some European countries.

The US President sent a strong signal that the US wants to end war in Ukraine, following Friday’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, which many analysts described as the most significant political event in 21st century.

Although Trump’s rhetoric is still rough in some cases and includes threats to both sides, it looks that the story may accelerate towards the peace agreement as Trump sees restoring of ties with Russia and new business deals as better solution than to continue to confront them.

The Europe and Ukraine’s space to maneuver has narrowed further, mainly due to their high dependence of US help, which could be reduced or stopped in case they reject Trump’s suggestions.

However, we may see a clearer picture probably by Tuesday morning, when results of top-level meeting (due later today) come out.

Gold price would come under pressure if the outcome of today’s meeting signals a peace deal on horizon, while prevailing hawkish tones would likely boost safe-haven demand and lift metal’s price.

Technical picture on daily chart remains bullishly aligned as near-term price action continues to float above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($3337), also supported by ascending trendline lower boundary ($3327).

Momentum indicator is in positive territory and adds to bullish bias, although near term action needs to see lift above $3365/74 zone (daily Tenkan-sen / Friday’s peak) to strengthen bulls for attack at $3391 (upper triangle boundary) and unmask upper breakpoint at $3400 zone (psychological / Aug 8 high).

Conversely, penetration and closing within daily cloud (below triangle support line) would weaken near term structure and bring in focus key supports at $3300 (psychological) and $3286 (daily cloud top).

Interesting situation could be also seen on monthly chart, where three consecutive long-legged monthly Dojis and four strong upside rejections generate signals of high uncertainty, but also warn that larger bulls might be running out of steam.

Markets will be also focusing on Jackson Hole symposium which starts later this week and look for more signals about Fed’s interest rate path.

Res: 3353; 3366; 3375; 3391.
Sup: 3337; 3327; 3321; 3307.

Market Overview

The crypto market continued its decline on Monday after a pause over the weekend. The total capitalisation fell back to $3.88 trillion, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. As expected, altcoins are falling the hardest, with Ethereum and XRP losing about 5% in the last 24 hours, twice as much as Bitcoin. The crypto market has returned to the area that acted as resistance in July. Will it become support this time?

Bitcoin fell to $115K, the lowest level in the last 11 days. It is now testing the 50-day moving average, which has been the bullish trend line since April. A consolidation below it will sharply increase the chances of a deeper correction, and a failure below $112K — the area of recent lows — will confirm the correction, opening the potential for a decline to $105-107K.

Solana is trading at $180, failing to consolidate above $210 for the second time in the last 30 days. Technically, it is worth watching the coin’s dynamics near the $170 and $160 levels, where the 50- and 200-day moving averages are located, respectively. A rebound from these levels could restore bullish sentiment, while a failure to break above them would signal internal weakness in the crypto market.

News Background

According to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs rose to $547.8 million last week. Total inflows since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 have increased to $54.97 billion.

Weekly inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs in the US rose sharply to $2.85 billion, breaking the mid-July record. The positive trend has continued for 14 consecutive weeks. Total net inflows since the ETF’s launch in July 2024 have increased to $12.67 billion.

According to CryptoQuant, the inflow of stablecoins to Binance from large investors and institutions has reached one of the highest levels in recent months. This may indicate expectations of a new rally.

MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe suggests that Bitcoin may decline a little further before consolidating. The key resistance level for a resumption of growth is $121,000. Glassnode considers $127,000 to be the key resistance level for BTC after it updated its highs.

Trader Nebraskangooner notes that the Bitcoin chart repeats the situation in November 2021, when the asset reached an all-time high of $69,000. Analyst Benjamin Cowen also believes that BTC shows the same pattern every year after halving: growth to the peak of the market cycle in the fourth quarter, followed by a bear market.