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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3797; (P) 1.3810; (R1) 1.3832; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.3720 will reaffirm the case that corrective pattern from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3878. Further decline should then be seen back to retest 1.3538 low. However, break of 1.3878 will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin seems to have gone smoothly. Details are scarce, but so far there are no signs of fresh tensions with Russia and no new sanctions on countries such as China and India that continue buying Russian oil. US crude opened the week with a gap lower but has since recovered part of its losses. Direction remains uncertain, though the absence of immediate stress is notable.

Later today Trump is due to meet Zelensky and European leaders to relay Moscow’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine. Russia continues to demand territorial concessions, while Ukraine rejects this and instead seeks binding security guarantees from its allies. Hopes of progress are keeping oil bears encouraged — with risks that prices test below $60pb — but disappointment remains a clear possibility. The next hours will likely set the tone for crude.

From a macro perspective, ample OPEC supply and cloudy global demand — weakened by trade disruptions and subdued Chinese consumption — keep oil prices in a bearish medium-term trend. The IEA last week projected the largest ever global oil surplus, nearly 3 million barrels/day of inventory build, a pace even higher than during the pandemic. Bulls counter that US output may soon peak near record highs and soften, while a weaker dollar supports demand from emerging markets. Still, the bearish camp holds the upper hand in 2025, with geopolitics only triggering temporary price spikes.

Asian markets started the week higher: Chinese equities gained 1.5% and India’s Nifty 50 rose 1.4%, snapping a downtrend that began in late June amid tense US–India trade talks. Both nations would welcome any truce between Russia and the West, given their desire to maintain ties with both camps. European and US futures are also firmer. The yen is softer, while gold demand remains strong — showing investors are cautious ahead of Trump’s meeting with Zelensky. Material progress could spark further oil weakness, a rally across equities, and softer gold demand. Disappointment would bring oil bulls back, pressure equities (except defense), and lift gold toward its 50-DMA and record highs.

In Europe, equities extended gains last week to their highest levels since March, before tariff announcements. This suggests tariff risk is largely priced out. Earnings showed resilience: carmakers took the biggest hit (VW’s operating profit fell nearly 30% in Q2 due to tariffs), but most other sectors saw limited impact. The stronger euro helped reduce costs and temper inflation, giving the European Central Bank (ECB) room to stay supportive. Overall, STOXX 600 companies posted ~3% earnings growth versus expectations for a ~3% decline, and forecasts have since been revised higher. A Russia–Ukraine truce would add to the bullish case for European assets as investors look for diversification away from US markets.

In the US, indices hover near record highs as markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates at its September meeting — potentially even by 50bp under political pressure from the White House. Attention now turns to Jerome Powell’s appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium this week. While the official theme is labour markets, investors will scrutinize any hint of September policy direction, especially after last week’s mixed inflation data: CPI showed limited price pressures, but PPI surprised higher. Treasury yields fell sharply after CPI, then rebounded on PPI, though remain below post-jobs data levels. The soft inflation backdrop supports equity valuations. Any progress on Ukraine peace talks could push global equities higher still. If not, any dip is likely to be quickly bought.

In focus this week

Today, following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is set to meet US President Trump in the White House alongside a group of European leaders including EU commission president von der Leyen.

In the euro area, we look for final July inflation data on Wednesday, the PMI report for August on Thursday and the negotiated wages indicator released by the ECB on Friday. We will closely monitor the negotiated wages indicator, as declining domestic inflation is the biggest downside risk to our call of ECB holding rates steady for the rest of the year.

Across the Atlantic, the Fed is set to take headlines throughout the week, as the minutes of the FOMC's July meeting are released Wednesday evening. Then on Thursday and Friday the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium will take place. This year's theme is "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy". The main focus of markets will be on Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday afternoon. On the macro data front, August flash PMIs are due for release Thursday.

Economic and market news

What happened over the weekend

In the US, July retail sales came in strong at +0.5% (cons: +0.5%), while the June numbers were revised up from +0.6% to +0.9%. Control group sales, the 'core' group, came in at +0.5% m/m with solid sales reported among most sectors. While employment growth has slowed over the past months, solid wage growth continues to fuel consumption in the US. Meanwhile, US July industrial production grew -0.1% (cons: 0.0%) in July, while the June growth was revised up to +0.4% from +0.3%.

University of Michigan consumer 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9% (preliminary) in August from 4.5% in July. Inflation expectations declined from May to July, but the new tariffs appear to have caused renewed concerns in early August. Worries about inflation also fed into a weaker consumer sentiment which declined to 58.6 from 61.7 in July.

In Alaska, US President Trump and Russian President Putin met to discuss the war in Ukraine. The talks ended earlier than expected and were unsuccessful in making any imminent progress towards a ceasefire. Steven Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, said that Putin agreed that the US could provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a deal, which would, though, also likely require territorial concessions. Following the meetings, Trump decided to hold back on further sanctions against Russia as well as 'secondary tariffs' on countries buying Russian energy such as India and China.

Equities: Equities ended last week on a soft note, but the broader picture remains another week of gains. Under the surface, cyclicals underperformed defensives, but the real story was sector rotation - particularly a strong comeback in healthcare. We have highlighted the sector several times recently, and last week investors finally rotated back in: healthcare gained nearly 4% in Europe and more than 5% in the US, outperforming staples by 4% in relative terms. This was not a broad defensive theme, but a clear rotation story, partly reflecting easing tariff fears and the sector's prior underperformance. In the US on Friday, Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4% and Russell 2000 -0.6%. Asian equities are higher this morning, and futures in both Europe and the US are marginally in the green.

FI and FX: Risk sentiment soured through Friday's session as markets awaited the outcome of the Putin-Trump Alaska summit. Rates moved higher across regions with the solid US retail sales data and rising consumer inflation expectations adding to the move. Long-end bonds suffered the most with 30Y yields in Germany and France reaching their highest levels since 2011. EUR/USD drifted higher towards 1.17 on Friday as the USD broadly weakened, ending the week down around 0.4%. EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK rose as market sentiment worsened. Overnight, Asian stocks are trading modestly higher as focus turns towards the Trump-Zelensky meeting.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9417; (P) 0.9431; (R1) 0.9457; More....

EUR/CHF's rally resumed by breaking 0.9438 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Rise from 0.9218 should target 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9400 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8614; (P) 0.8626; (R1) 0.8648; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.8652 will suggest that the corrective pattern from 0.8752 has completed after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600, and retain near term bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 0.8752 high next. However, sustained break of 0.8600 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8506.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8501) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7934; (P) 1.7963; (R1) 1.8017; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Correction from 1.8094 should have completed with three waves down to 1.7671. Further rally should be seen to 1.8094 first. Break there will resume the rally from 1.7245 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.7830 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.72; (P) 172.05; (R1) 172.59; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Corrective pattern from 173.87 is still extending, and break of 170.94 will bring deeper fall to 169.69 support. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.99 will bring retest of 173.87.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 169.87) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.92; (P) 199.57; (R1) 200.23; More...

GBP/JPY recovers today but stays below 200.26 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more consolidations could be seen, but in case of another fall, downside should be contained well above 195.01 support. On the upside, firm break of 200.26 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Asian markets opened the week on a positive note, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 extending its rally to fresh record highs. The interplay between Nikkei and Yen remains crucial. A softer yen improves exporters’ competitiveness, lifting equities. At the same time, robust equity performance can in turn weigh on the currency as investors channel funds into riskier assets. The feedback loop is evident again today, with Yen sliding broadly.

In the currency markets, Yen leads losses, followed by Dollar and Euro. On the flip side, Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie are outperforming, reflecting demand for higher-beta plays in a risk-on environment. Sterling and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the pack.

With the economic calendar light today, some attention is turning to geopolitics. US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders will be closely followed. The talks come after Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, which Trump called “productive” despite yielding no breakthrough.

Before European leaders join the broader conversation, Trump and Zelenskiy are due to meet one-on-one. European capitals are keen to help Zelenskiy avoid another public confrontation like the one in February, when Trump and Vice President JD Vance criticized him in the Oval Office.

To bolster Zelenskiy’s position, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened allies on Sunday. Their aim is to secure stronger security guarantees for Ukraine, ideally with the US playing a central role.

Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar is heavy later this week. Markets will parse Canada CPI on Tuesday, RBNZ, UK CPI, and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, global PMIs on Thursday, and Japan CPI on Friday. All of this culminates with the Jackson Hole Symposium from Thursday to Saturday, where Fed officials’ comments will set the tone for September policy expectations.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.87%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.67%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.24%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.84%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.013 at 1.579.

NZ BNZ services uptick to 48.9, contraction persists

New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index improved slightly in July, rising from 47.6 to 48.9. But the sector remained in contraction for the sixth consecutive month. Also, the latest reading is still well below the long-run survey average of 52.9.

Details showed mixed conditions. Activity/Sales stayed in contraction at 47.5, and New Orders stalled at 50.0. On the positive side, Inventories expanded for the second month at 51.4. Employment component slid to 47.1, extending its losing streak to 20 months.

Business sentiment, while slightly less negative, continued to reflect difficult conditions. Around 58.5% of comments were pessimistic, down from 66.2% in June. Firms pointed to declining sales, reduced spending, and persistent cost-of-living pressures. Inflation, high interest rates, weather disruptions, staffing shortages, and global uncertainty all weighed on confidence.

Key 112K level in focus as Bitcoin reverses from record

Bitcoin’s near-term outlook now hinges on whether 112,000 zone can hold as support after last week’s brief breakout to a record 124,553. The sharp reversal has shifted attention to this key level, with selling pressure still visible as the new week begins.

The current decline was triggered by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who unsettled markets by revealing government Bitcoin reserves were worth only USD 15–20 billion, far below estimates. He added that Washington would not buy new Bitcoin for its strategic reserve, instead relying on confiscated assets to build holdings.

While he later clarified on X that Treasury remained open to “budget-neutral pathways” to expand reserves, confidence took a hit. Investors interpreted the comments as a sign Washington is unlikely to bolster demand in the near term.

Combined with stretched technicals, the backdrop encouraged traders to lock in profits, ending Bitcoin’s latest rally attempt prematurely.

Technically, momentum is fading. Bearish divergences in both the daily and 4-hour MACD highlight loss of upside strength. While another test of the highs cannot be ruled out, gains above 124,553 appear constrained.

Instead, focus has shifted to the 111,889 structural support. Decisive break there would confirm correction of the rally from 74,373, opening the door for a pullback to 38.2% retracement of 74,373 to 124,553 at 105,384.

That could set the stage for either prolonged consolidation or a deeper pullback before any fresh bullish leg.

Jackson Hole to test Fed’s September cut resolve; RBNZ cut as last?

The coming week is dominated by the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 21–23, which traditionally serves as the Fed’s most important policy forum outside of formal FOMC meetings. This year, markets are focused less on abstract long-term themes and more on whether Fed officials drop any clues about the likelihood of a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting.

For now, the Fed still has two critical data points in hand before that decision — August CPI and the next Nonfarm Payrolls report. That gives officials room to remain cautious. Some may argue it is too early to commit, but their tone at Jackson Hole will be parsed carefully for signs of whether the committee is leaning toward action if those reports come in broadly in line with expectations.

The balance of voices will matter. Doves like Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented at the July meeting in favor of an immediate cut, suggesting internal debate is more intense than usual. The minutes of that meeting, due earlier in the week, will shed light on the arguments for and against moving sooner. Traders will be keen to see whether more members are quietly sympathetic to the dovish camp.

Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech is the highlight of Jackson Hole. But investors have learned not to expect Powell to deviate much from his hallmark cautious, even-handed style. He sees himself more as a moderator of the FOMC rather than its chief ideological driver, and is unlikely to give away a firm commitment. Still, even subtle phrasing shifts could tilt expectations on whether the Fed is preparing to cut as soon as September.

Beyond the Fed, markets also turn to New Zealand, where the RBNZ rate decision will be closely watched. A Reuters poll showed 28 of 30 economists expect a 25bps cut to 3.00%, with only two calling for a hold. Inflation has slowed to 2.7% in Q2, inside the bank’s 1–3% target, while unemployment rose to 5.2%, the highest since 2020. These conditions give the RBNZ reason to ease policy further.

The debate is now about where the easing cycle ends. Of 29 economists forecasting year-end levels, half see rates steady at 3.00%, half at 2.75%, with one outlier expecting no further cuts. Local banks are also split: ASB and Westpac think the RBNZ pauses after this week, BNZ sees a path to 2.75%, while ANZ and Kiwibank expect easing down to 2.50% next year. Markets will weigh not just the cut, but also how Governor Christian Hawkesby frames the road ahead.

In the UK, attention will turn to CPI and retail sales after last week’s strong Q2 GDP print reinforced Sterling’s outperformance. With inflation still elevated, the BoE’s cautious approach to cutting rates is unlikely to change, and fresh data could give the Pound another leg higher if it confirms persistent price pressures.

Elsewhere, CPI from Japan, CPI and retail sales from Canada, and global PMI readings will round out the week’s calendar.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: New Zealand BNZ services; Japan tertiary industry index; Eurozone trade balance; Canada housing starts; US NAHB Housing.
• Tuesday: New Zealand PPI; Australia Westpac consumer sentiment; Canada CPI; US new residential construction.
• Wednesday: Japan trade balance, machine orders; China rate decision; RBNZ rate decision; Germanny PPI; UK CPI; Eurozone CPI final; US FOMC minutes.
• Thursday: New Zealand trade balance; Australia PMIs; Japan PMIs; Swiss Trade balance; Eurozone PMIs; UK PMIs; Canada IPPI and RMPI; US jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, PMIs, existing home sales.
• Friday: UK Gfk consumer sentiment; Japan CPI; Germany GDP final; UK retail sales; Canada retail sales.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.92; (P) 199.57; (R1) 200.23; More...

GBP/JPY recovers today but stays below 200.26 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more consolidations could be seen, but in case of another fall, downside should be contained well above 195.01 support. On the upside, firm break of 200.26 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1620 resistance.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1665 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD rallied and tested the 1.3590 resistance zone.
• USD/JPY is consolidating losses below the 148.00 resistance.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base and started a fresh increase above 1.1550 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD cleared 1.1620 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 1.1620 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even surpassed the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1768 swing high to the 1.1391 low.

On the upside, the pair now faces resistance near the 1.1720 level. The next key resistance sits near 1.1750. A close above 1.1750 could set the pace for another increase.

In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 1.1800, above which the bulls could aim for a move toward 1.1880. If the pair fails near 1.1720, there could be another decline. On the downside, immediate support is 1.1665.

There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1665 on the same chart. The next key support sits at 1.1620. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.1550 support zone.

Looking at USD/JPY, the pair started a recovery wave above 147.00, but the bears were active above the 147.50 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• NAHB Housing Market Index for August 2025 – Forecast 33, versus 33 previous.