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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3780; (P) 1.3806; (R1) 1.3828; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 1.3720 will reaffirm the case that corrective pattern from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3878. Further decline should then be seen back to retest 1.3538 low. However, break of 1.3878 will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538 with another rising leg towards 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6475; (P) 0.6499; (R1) 0.6517; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral, and focus is back on 0.6841 support with current dip. Firm break there will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.6624 is already extending with a third leg. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6418 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352. On the upside, though, above 0.6567 will resume the rebound from 0.6418 to 0.6624 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

The forex market continues to trade without conviction, with major pairs confined to last week’s ranges. Traders are largely in wait-and-see mode, with the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week expected to provide the next significant catalyst as Fed officials weigh in on the September policy outlook.

Still, brief bursts of volatility could emerge from data in the interim. Today’s Canada CPI release is one such event. Headline inflation is expected to hold steady, but core measures may firm. The outcome will be crucial for BoC, which has paused after seven consecutive cuts but remains split on whether more easing is needed in September.

On the geopolitical front, attention has been high but market reaction muted. US President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders at the White House in an effort to build momentum toward ending the war in Ukraine. Yet financial markets have largely shrugged off the developments.

Trump revealed he has begun arranging a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy, with a trilateral summit involving himself to follow. He described the initiative as an “early step” in a war now nearing its fourth year. Expectations are modest, but the symbolic breakthrough has been noted.

Zelenskyy added that a package of security guarantees for Ukraine is being prepared, likely including significant U.S. weapons purchases, and should be formalized within 10 days. Trump confirmed that guarantees would be provided by European countries in coordination with Washington.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.03%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.19%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.30%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.55%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.028 at 1.600. Overnight, DOW fell -0.08%. S&P 500 fell -0.01%. NASDAQ rose 0.03%. 10-year yield rose 0.013 to 4.341.

Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment hits 3.5-year high on RBA boost

Australian consumer confidence surged in August, with the Westpac index rising 5.7% mom to 98.5, the strongest reading since early 2022. Westpac attributed the rebound to RBA’s recent rate cuts, noting that a “long period of pessimism” among households may finally be drawing to a close. Consumers are less worried about their finances and more willing to take a cautiously positive view on the economy.

While policy easing is clearly helping, Westpac said the recovery is still fragile. Sustaining gains will likely require further RBA support, though there is no urgency to cut again at the September 29–30 meeting. With inflation well within the target range and unemployment low, the Board has room to wait and respond to incoming data.

On balance, Westpac expects RBA to hold steady in September before delivering another 25bp rate cut in November.

Canada CPI to steer BoC next cut? EUR/CAD risks correction

Canadian inflation data is today’s key release, with headline CPI expected at 1.9% yoy in July, unchanged from June. More attention may fall on core measures, with CPI common forecast to tick up to 2.7% yoy from 2.6% yoy. The figures arrive at a delicate juncture for BoC, which has cut rates seven times since June 2024 but held steady at 2.75% in its last three meetings.

Expectations for a September rate cut remain divided. The BoC’s July summary of deliberations revealed a split council: some members argued that enough easing has already been delivered, while others highlighted economic slack and warned further support may be needed if labor market conditions soften. The uncertainty has left markets reluctant to price in an imminent move with conviction.

Tariff risks complicate the picture. Policymakers noted in July that U.S. tariffs and the rewiring of global trade are directly influencing inflation and broader growth dynamics. The latest decision to hold rates came just before Trump ratcheted Canadian tariffs up to 35%, though with exemptions for CUSMA-compliant goods.

Despite headwinds, BoC acknowledged some resilience in the domestic economy. Yet policymakers remain wary of timing: additional easing might only take hold as demand begins to recover, raising the risk of fueling price pressures rather than cushioning growth.

For now, inflation remains close to target and the economy has shown pockets of resilience, but the balance of risks is still fragile. Whether today’s CPI confirms contained price growth or points to renewed pressures could influence whether BoC holds steady again in September.

Technically, EUR/CAD is starting to lose momentum as it's struggling to sustain above 1.6151 key resistance (2018 high). Immediate focus is on 1.6063 minor support. Firm break there will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.5910).

But the overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5764 support holds. The larger up trend is expected to resume sooner or later. Once the 1.6151 resistance is cleared decisively, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4682 to 1.5959 from 1.5598 at 1.6387.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6475; (P) 0.6499; (R1) 0.6517; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral, and focus is back on 0.6841 support with current dip. Firm break there will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.6624 is already extending with a third leg. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6418 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352. On the upside, though, above 0.6567 will resume the rebound from 0.6418 to 0.6624 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Key Highlights

• AUD/USD struggled near 0.6565 and reacted to the downside.
• It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.6505 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is correcting gains from the 1.3590 resistance zone.
• EUR/USD is struggling to clear the 1.1720 resistance.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar failed to continue higher above 0.6565 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD corrected gains and traded below the 0.6500 support.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.6505. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6419 swing low to the 0.6568 high.

The pair is now trading below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the downside, immediate support is 0.6475. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6419 swing low to the 0.6568 high.

The next key support sits at 0.6455. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 0.6420 support zone. On the upside, the pair now faces resistance near the 0.6500 level.

The next key resistance sits near 0.6525. A close above 0.6525 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 0.6550, above which the bulls could aim for a move toward 0.6620.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a downside correction, and it seems like the bears might aim for a move toward 1.1600.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Housing Starts for July 2025 (MoM) – Forecast 1.30M, versus 1.321M previous.
• US Building Permits for July 2025 (MoM) – Forecast 1.390M, versus 1.393M previous.

Canadian inflation data is today’s key release, with headline CPI expected at 1.9% yoy in July, unchanged from June. More attention may fall on core measures, with CPI common forecast to tick up to 2.7% yoy from 2.6% yoy. The figures arrive at a delicate juncture for BoC, which has cut rates seven times since June 2024 but held steady at 2.75% in its last three meetings.

Expectations for a September rate cut remain divided. The BoC’s July summary of deliberations revealed a split council: some members argued that enough easing has already been delivered, while others highlighted economic slack and warned further support may be needed if labor market conditions soften. The uncertainty has left markets reluctant to price in an imminent move with conviction.

Tariff risks complicate the picture. Policymakers noted in July that U.S. tariffs and the rewiring of global trade are directly influencing inflation and broader growth dynamics. The latest decision to hold rates came just before Trump ratcheted Canadian tariffs up to 35%, though with exemptions for CUSMA-compliant goods.

Despite headwinds, BoC acknowledged some resilience in the domestic economy. Yet policymakers remain wary of timing: additional easing might only take hold as demand begins to recover, raising the risk of fueling price pressures rather than cushioning growth.

For now, inflation remains close to target and the economy has shown pockets of resilience, but the balance of risks is still fragile. Whether today’s CPI confirms contained price growth or points to renewed pressures could influence whether BoC holds steady again in September.

Technically, EUR/CAD is starting to lose momentum as it's struggling to sustain above 1.6151 key resistance (2018 high). Immediate focus is on 1.6063 minor support. Firm break there will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.5910).

But the overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5764 support holds. The larger up trend is expected to resume sooner or later. Once the 1.6151 resistance is cleared decisively, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4682 to 1.5959 from 1.5598 at 1.6387.

Australian consumer confidence surged in August, with the Westpac index rising 5.7% mom to 98.5, the strongest reading since early 2022. Westpac attributed the rebound to RBA’s recent rate cuts, noting that a “long period of pessimism” among households may finally be drawing to a close. Consumers are less worried about their finances and more willing to take a cautiously positive view on the economy.

While policy easing is clearly helping, Westpac said the recovery is still fragile. Sustaining gains will likely require further RBA support, though there is no urgency to cut again at the September 29–30 meeting. With inflation well within the target range and unemployment low, the Board has room to wait and respond to incoming data.

On balance, Westpac expects RBA to hold steady in September before delivering another 25bp rate cut in November.

Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

Dow Jones: ⬇️ Sell

• Dow Jones reversed from strong resistance level 45000.00
• Likely to fall to support level 44500.00

Dow Jones index recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the strong resistance level 45000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2024) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.

Given the strength of the resistance level 45000.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to fall to the next support level 44500.00.

Gold prices have rallied from an overnight low around the $3323/oz handle to a high of $3360/oz before settling around the $3350/oz mark.The precious metal looks set to continue its choppy price action at the start of a busy week.

The recovery in Gold from the overnight low could in part be down to lower US Treasury Yields with the benchmark 10Y US Treasury yield falling from its recent highs.

Russia-Ukraine Developments as Trump and Zelensky Set to Meet

European leaders will meet with Zelenskiy and Trump on Monday to discuss a possible deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Under the proposed plan, Russia would give up small areas of occupied Ukraine, while Ukraine would give up parts of its eastern region that Russia has been unable to take. These ideas were reportedly discussed by Putin and Trump during their summit in Alaska on Friday.

The question moving forward will be whether a peace deal will have a significant impact on Gold prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been running for the better part of three and a half years. It will be interesting to see how much risk premium has been priced into gold as a result and if there will be a significant selloff if a deal is struck.

Either way, this is worth monitoring.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook

The US Dollar Index was higher this morning ahead of what is shaping up to be a busy week. Geopolitical developments, Fed Speak and Jackson Hole are all in focus.

The DXY continues to trade at a key confluence level as rate cut bets from the US Federal Reserve continue to change.

Money markets now see an 83% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by a quarter point next month. However, traders have become less certain about a rate cut after recent data showed higher U.S. wholesale prices and strong retail sales in July.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy and the Fed's plans at the Jackson Hole symposium from August 21 to 23.

MUFG Bank predicts the Fed will cut rates in September but doesn’t expect Powell to clearly signal this during his speech. This will be Powell's last address at the conference before his term ends next May, as he balances the Fed's goals of keeping prices stable and unemployment low.

A pivotal week for the greenback and one which could have implications for Gold prices as well.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Source: Tradingview

Gold Prices Moving Forward

Gold prices continue to hold firm for now with downside potential limited thanks to a host of uncertainties still prevalent in global markets.

Safe haven demand remains in play and this could in part explain Gold's resilience.

The performance of Gold moving forward hinges on potential changes in rate cut bets as well as geopolitical developments.

There is another concern for Gold prices. Given the rally over the last 18 months, Gold's value could lead to a pivot or rotation toward other commodities which continue to play catch-up to gold.So while we could still see some upside in gold, I’d say the bigger opportunity is elsewhere in commodities at this stage of the monetary-macro-metal cycle.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, on the two-hour chart below we can see that Gold has rejected of the 50-day MA.

Price is however trading just above a key area of support as market participants seek clarity.

The RSI Period-14 remains above the 50 neutral level which is also a sign of bullish momentum.

Either way Golds next move will need a catalyst in either direction for a potential breakout.

Immediate support rests at 3331 before the 3314 and 3300 handle came into foucs.

A move higher first need acceptance above the 50-day MA before the 3361 and 3375 handles come into focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, August 18, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 67% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.

There were a few signals traders could have spotted ahead of the ongoing selloff.

After last Friday's warning from Bitcoin, with an all-time high leading to a direct retracement, the crypto market has started to make its way off its most recent highs.

Ethereum staged a huge rally toward its record levels, but buyers failed to break through the $4,870 all-time high—a sign of hesitancy from the market that sellers enjoy.

Altcoins were also a bit timid on the last leg of the rally showing some lack of depth in buying.

And with cryptocurrencies still firmly in the risk-asset camp, renewed geopolitical headwinds (including uncertainty with the Russia-Ukraine war) are giving investors further reasons to cash out from the rallies.

Let's see through BTC and ETH intraday charts if this should keep on going or if this is just a small retracement in the longer-term trend.

Bitcoin 8H Chart

Bitcoin 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is $9,000 (7.20%) from its most recent ATH at $124,269, with the shape of the most recent highs appearing as a double top.

Despite this warning sign, the ongoing 8H candle is showing a doji-indecision as shorter timeframes enter oversold territory.

The current candle appears as dip buyers try to re-enter at the upward trendline that has served as support since the end of April.

Prices are located right between the 50 and 200-period MAs – showing that the action is much less balanced than the previous uptrend.

Levels to watch for Bitcoin trading:

Levels for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $114,500 to $115,500 rebound at the current supporting trendline
• $110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone (MA 200 at $111,350)
• $100,000 Main support at psychological level

Resistance Levels:

• $116,000 to $117,000 Pivot
• 50-period MA $117,330
• Major Resistance $122,000 to $124,500
• Current all-time high $124,596

Ethereum 8H Chart

Ethereum 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Ethereum's outlook doesn't look as bleak, with the ongoing retracement hanging around the $4,200 to $4,300 consolidation zone (yellow box).

With prices evolving in a current upward channel, sellers seem to have appeared at the higher bound just before the $4,870 2021 record.

Buyers took the current rally to $4,790. As mentioned in the intro, a failure to breach the past highs is interpreted by sellers as lack of persistence from ETH bulls.

Nonetheless, after reaching ultra-overbought levels, such retracements are healthy.

Probability of a higher rebound from here are still decent as long as prices hold above the $4,000 pivot, and even higher probability if buyers take the short-term hand here.

Levels for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• $3,500 Support zone
• $4,000 Main pivot (confluence with 50-period MA)
• $4,200 to $4,300 consolidation zone (currently testing)

Resistance Levels:

• Current highs $4,793
• $4,700 to $4,900 All-time high resistance zone
• $4,870 2021 record
• Potential resistance at 1.618% Fibonacci extension of April to July up-move

A look at the crypto Market Cap

Total Market Cap Weekly Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Total Crypto Market Cap is testing the 2024 highs.

As long as profit-taking doesn't go below 3.50T, we can assume that this is just some healthy retracement instead of the beginning of a bear trend.

Altcoins are retracing a bit more strongly, but this is common as they are the most risky of the already-risky crypto asset class.

We will stay in touch frequently to see how this story develops.

Safe Trades!