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AUD/USD retreated sharply after edging higher to 0.6567 last week but downside is contained above 0.6481 minor support so far. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Overall, corrective pattern from 0.6624 should still be extending. Above 0.6567 will target 0.6624. Firm break of 0.6481 will resume the correction through 0.6418 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD's recovery from 1.3720 extended higher last week and the breach of 1.3809 suggests that pullback from 1.3878 has completed. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.3878 first. Firm break there will resume the whole rebound from 1.3538 towards 1.4014 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.3720 will resume the fall fro 1.3878 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017). Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3511) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

GBP/JPY edged higher to 200.26 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 195.01 support holds. Break of 200.26 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/JPY retreated after edging high to 172.99 last week. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 173.87 is still extending. Deeper fall might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.99 will bring retest of 173.87.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 169.77) will delay this bullish case.

In the long term picture, up trend fro 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.

EUR/GBP fell to as low as 0.08595 last week but recovered after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8652 will suggest that the corrective pattern from 0.8752 has completed and retain near term bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 0.8752 high next. However, sustained break of 0.8600 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8506.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8496) holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.7671 extended higher last week. The late breach of 1.7972 resistance added to the case that correction from 1.8094 has already completed with three waves down to 1.7671. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.8094 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.7245 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.7830 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6414) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.

EUR/CHF turned into consolidation last week but the late breach of 0.9438 temporary top suggests that rise from 0.9265 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Decisive break of 0.9445 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 0.9218 has resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, however, break of 0.9400 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9860) holds.

Monday, Aug 18, 2025

Tuesday, Aug 19, 2025

Wednesday, Aug 20, 2025

Thursday, Aug 21, 2025

Friday, Aug 22, 2025

After an already volatile trading week, next week will see a crossroad of data and geopolitical catalysts that may move currency, equity and crypto Markets.

Before looking at those, let's have a look at what happened this week.

Week in review: US mixed inflation data sending warning signs, RBA rate cut and Trump-Putin meeting

The US path to a much anticipated rate cut was well-drawn, particularly after Tuesday's CPI report coming along the FED's inflation target (2.5% y/y on the headline, 2.7% on the Core.)

However, Thursday's PPI data changed the narrative quite a lot.
Coming in at 0.9% vs 0.2% expected (and bringing the y/y Core to 3.7%!), Markets caught a bad surprise: Tariff-led inflation is making its way to the US Data.

With a mix of downward revised NFP data and a not-so-clear US inflation outlook, the September rate cut isn't going to be such a given.

There will still be one more NFP report and CPI report before the 17th of September Meeting happens.

In the meantime, risk-assets and sentiment have taken a hit from the tariff fears: Cryptos have taken a tough hit and US Indices are a bit more indecisive, yet still holding close to their recent highs.

Weekly Performance from different Asset classes

Weekly Asset Performance, look at how the US data changed the flows twice with commodities being the weekly losers – Source: TradingView

The Trump–Putin meeting should also be making headlines very soon, with the two presidents starting discussions in the afternoon.

The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expects a long meeting, saying that "In general, we can imagine that it will take at least 6-7 hours".

Access our WTI Oil analysis as some heightened volatility can be expected there in the afternoon, with volatility in the commodity possibly also spilling on Monday.

Elsewhere, Markets saw the Royal Bank of Australia cutting rates to 3.60% on mixed signals for the future RBA outlook.

The Week Ahead – Jackson Hole Symposium and a lot more

One of the key events concerning all types of Markets is the yearly Jackson Hole Symposium. A roadmap for the event just got published.

For those who don't know, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual gathering hosted by the Kansas City Fed, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, academics, and market participants to discuss key economic issues.

While the topics vary each year, it’s closely watched for views from Central Banks on the future outlook with the Tariff concerns and global growth.

One of the most memorable market-shaking moments from the yearly conference came in 2010, when then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke used his Jackson Hole speech to signal a second round of quantitative easing (QE2).

The hint sent risk assets surging and Treasury yields lower, cementing Jackson Hole’s reputation as a stage for major policy signals.

Asia Pacific Markets - Royal Bank of New Zealand rate decision

Asian-Pacific Markets will not get too much in terms of key data, with the main event happening in New Zealand.

The RBNZ is widely expected to cut their rates to 3% from 3.25% – Keep an eye on our upcoming RBNZ meeting preview coming up on Monday.|

The rate decision is happening on Tuesday at 22:00 ET.

For the rest, mid-tier data releases include Japan and New Zealand's trade balance, the Japanese national CPI data and Australian PMIs.

Markets are also awaiting for the PBoC Rate decision, just before the RBNZ meeting. The Chinese economy has been stagnant for a while now except for the stimulus offered by the Central Bank.

Economists are waiting to see if there is more stimulus to come to boost notably APAC currencies (like AUD and NZD) and commodities' growth outlook.

US, Europe and UK Markets - PMI data, Canadian inflation and Eurozone & UK PPI releases

The week really starts on Tuesday with the Canadian inflation forecasted at 2% – We will see if the Loonie gets enough of a push to strengthen after a rough past week.

The CAD has been getting dragged around by US Dollar flows, with the USDCAD stuck in a consolidation.

Markets will also see if the UK inflation gets a boost which may confirm further the doubts of prolonged rate cuts from the Bank of England – The BoE conference on Thursday 7th of August had almost failed to deliver a cut.

In Europe, both the UK and Germany will release their PPI data on Wednesday where we will see how producer prices moved on the other side of the Atlantic.
They might be movers for European currencies after this week's market shaking US PPI.

The US doesn't have many economic releases per-se, but will still see a few events including the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday (14:00) and many key speeches from a divided Federal Reserve, including Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole scheduled at 10:00 A.M. on Friday.

Of course, don't forget to check all the different PMI releases expected from the Eurozone, the UK and finally the US (Thursday 9:45 for US global services PMI).

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

Canadian Highlights

• After last week’s downbeat employment report, market watchers wait for an update on inflation next Tuesday.
• Data out this week suggest the housing market’s freeze is starting to thaw.
• The push (tariffs and trade) and pull (excess supply) on consumer prices is the focus in the coming months, with July’s inflation report hopefully providing a solid glimpse of what might be to come.

U.S. Highlights

• Inflation pressures rose in July, with core CPI rising above 3% for the first time since February. Meanwhile the uptick in PPI suggests a shift to higher tariff passthrough by companies.
• Retail sales recorded healthy growth in July despite growing price pressures.
• The S&P 500 hit a double-digit year-to-date return after rising 1% on the week, which would mark the third consecutive annual double digit return if unconceded by year-end.

Canada – The Week Between Labour and Inflation

With an employment report in the rearview and an update on inflation due next Tuesday this was a quiet week for Canadian economic data. In terms of news, China updated tariffs on Canada’s canola, the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations doubled down on the wait-and-see approach, and we got a bit of good news from the housing market. With consumer and producer price inflation south of the border garnering attention this week, it’s worth taking stock of where things stand and what’re we’re looking for from the CPI report next week.

First things first, an update from the housing market. After some glimmers of hope in late 2024, the market was broadsided by tariff threats and the resulting economic uncertainty earlier this winter. Data out this week suggest this year’s freeze might just be starting to thaw. Sales rose again in July, with strength in Ontario showing that pent-up demand might be starting to soak up some of the ample supply on the market. That said, a signal that the housing market might be finding bottom is not the same as one that it is rising again. A gradual recovery remains our base case, with the associated impacts on housing costs, and inflation.

In particular, one key component we’re looking to is rent inflation. CMHC’s mid-year rental report cited the ongoing churn of tenants vacating rent controlled units that are then relisted at current market rates, contributing to propping up the month-on-month gains in average rents. This helps explain, in part, the still elevated readings in the CPI shelter component (Chart 1). That said, with supply on the market rising, falling asking rents should continue to exert influence on the metric, and as less of the rental stock is left to reset, help it continue moderating in the coming months. Beyond rents, we will also be looking for signs that inflation in cyclically sensitive services (excluding shelter) slowed in July.

These factors ultimately lead to the most important question, “What are we going to see from tariffed goods?” The Canadian government has imposed tariffs on a wide swath of imports from the U.S., and a run-up in producer prices last fall (Chart 2) suggests some degree of margin compression that firms could be looking to recoup. So, we’re going to be looking for evidence that higher prices are being passed on by firms, rather than absorbed.

There are, of course, complicating factors. The BoC’s monetary policy report noted past depreciation of the Canadian dollar as another factor in the current price gains, but given the recent rally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, and our outlook, a firmer currency should act as somewhat of a salve against faster inflation. Further complicating things is the chance that firms could opt to raise prices as their tariff-exposed competitors are forced to pass on higher costs. The push (tariffs and trade) and pull (excess supply) on consumer prices is the focus in the coming months for the BoC. For those of us watching, July’s inflation read will hopefully provide a solid glimpse of what might be to come.

U.S. – Price Pressure Firms in July, Equity Markets Undeterred

It has been one week since the full complement of reciprocal tariff policies went into effect. Those tariffs will not have an influence on the economic data for a few months, but the tariffs that prevailed through the first half of the year continued to show up in the July inflation readings released this week. This included the CPI and PPI, both of which showed signs of rising price pressures that are expected to trend higher over the coming months with the new tranche of tariffs now in effect. Largely undeterred, equity markets continued to probe record highs, with the S&P 500 rising 1.0% on the week and notching a double digit return year-to-date (Chart 1).

The first inflation report we received on Tuesday showed consumer price growth accelerating in July, with the annual percentage change in core CPI rising above 3% for the first time since February. This was driven by stronger core goods prices, largely related to higher tariff passthrough, while core services inflation also trended higher (Chart 2). Producer prices, which we received on Thursday and measure the prices charged by U.S. businesses, also began to trend notably higher in July with the monthly change hitting a 3-year high. This likely suggests that businesses are shifting to pass on more of the higher costs associated with tariffs to consumers after largely absorbing the costs in the first half of the year. Moving forward, with the effective U.S. tariff rate nearly 10 percentage-points higher after last week’s reciprocal tariffs came into force, inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated through the second half of the year.

The Federal Reserve has been acutely attuned to these developments, with the central bank remaining on hold since the start of the year. Although a few Federal Reserve officials have advocated for rate reductions, the balance of the FOMC continues to voice caution regarding the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for inflation and the economy. The officials we heard from this week, including regional Fed presidents Schmid (Kansas City) and Goolsbee (Chicago) who are voting members of the FOMC this year, noted that caution was still warranted. Market pricing fluctuated this week, but currently has 90% odds for a rate cut in September. The annual Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be watched closely after this week’s inflation reports for any signs on the leanings of officials in the run-up to the next Federal Reserve decision in one month.

On a more positive note, retail spending appeared to remain healthy in July, growing 0.5% month-on-month. However, July also had Amazon’s multi-day Prime day event which tends to boost sales activity. A non-outsized reading could suggest that consumption is beginning to slow in line with the downward revisions to the labor market recorded in the second quarter. This is part of the reason why Federal Reserve officials have continued to advocate for caution, noting that it will take time to properly assess the state of the U.S. economy amid the fog of various shifts in trade policy.

Next week, we’ll receive the FOMC meeting minutes for July as well as the July reading for PCE inflation which should help formulate expectations for September’s Fed meeting. With trade policy uncertainty waning gradually, the attention of markets will shift back towards the Fed.