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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1578; (P) 1.1628; (R1) 1.1665; More...

EUR/USD rebounded after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 1.1698 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.1829 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Above 1.1698 will bring retest of 1.1829. However, break of 1.1589 support will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.1390 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Dollar continued to stay soft in Asian session today, carried over from Tuesday’s post US CPI weakness. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the policy discussion by urging Fed to consider a 50bps rate cut in September to “make up for the delay” in starting its easing cycle earlier this year.

Bessent argued that if Fed had started cutting in June or July, the current debate would look different, and that now it may be necessary to move more aggressively. He also voiced support for the Senate confirming Stephen Miran — currently chair of the Council of Economic Advisers — to fill a temporary Fed board vacancy before September, suggesting Miran’s presence could help pave the way for a larger cut given recent downward revisions to jobs data and favorable inflation readings.

Despite the strong rhetoric, fed funds futures show markets are far from embracing Bessent’s proposal. Pricing currently reflects a 94% chance of a 25bps cut in September, with the remaining probability on no change. The idea of a 50bps cut has yet to gain any traction among traders. Odds of an October cut are at 60%, but the prevailing expectation is still for just two cuts in total for 2025.

In the broader FX markets, Yen continues to underperform as the worst performer as strong risk-on sentiment continues to weigh. In particular, Japan’s Nikkei index surged above 43k mark for the first time ever, extending its record-breaking rally. Meanwhile, in the US, both S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at all-time highs overnight, reinforcing the positive tone in global equities.

Elsewhere, Loonie and Dollar are also under pressure. Sterling leads gains, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc. Despite the buoyant risk mood, Aussie and Kiwi are trading mixed in the middle of the pack.

On the trade front, US President Donald Trump eased market nerves in precious metals earlier in the week by announcing he would not impose tariffs on gold. The move was welcomed by the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP as a positive signal for trade stability. However, the group stressed the need for a formal and binding commitment.

Meanwhile, China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola imports, escalating a trade dispute dating back to Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese EVs last August. Canada has rejected the dumping claim and expressed “deep disappointment” over the decision but said it remains open to constructive dialogue to resolve the dispute.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.35%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.04%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.48%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.84%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.024 at 1.524. Overnight, DOW rose 1.10%. S&P 500 rose 1.13%. NASDAQ rose 1.39%. 10-year yield rose 0.020 to 4.293.

Ethereum outperforms, Bitcoin pauses for breath

Ethereum’s rally has gathered strong pace and the cryptocurrency is now on track towards its record high. The move comes as Bitcoin remains stuck in consolidation, unable for now to decisively break its own record, as traders await the next catalyst.

Both assets are drawing support from the improved clarity around US cryptocurrency policy. However, Ethereum’s outperformance appears tied to larger institutional inflows, with big investors playing catch-up. In particular, Ethereum’s dominant role in stablecoin infrastructure leaves it uniquely positioned to benefit as digital dollar transactions expand under a more certain regulatory regime.

Technically, Ethereum’s near-term outlook stays bullish while above 4,163.97 support. Firm break of 4,863.75 record high would open the way toward 100% projection of 2,110.58 to 3,940.08 from 3,353.16 at 5,128.66.

On the broader horizon, a clean break above 4,163.97 also sets up a medium term move move toward 138.2% projection of 878.5 to 4,092.55 from 1,382.55 at 5,824.36.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is likely to see more consolidation below 123,231 in the near term. The broader outlook remains bullish while above 111,889 support, with the long-term uptrend expected to resume sooner or later.

However, Bitcoin may face strong resistance just below 100% projection of 49,008 to 109,571 from 74,373 at 134,936, which could act as a cap before any sustained move higher.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1578; (P) 1.1628; (R1) 1.1665; More...

EUR/USD rebounded after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 1.1698 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.1829 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Above 1.1698 will bring retest of 1.1829. However, break of 1.1589 support will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.1390 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Since the recent one-week slide of -5.8% seen on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from 24 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low, its price actions have been choppy as markets grappled with US tariffs news flow and the possibility of an imminent US Federal Reserve dovish pivot in September.

Amid this chaotic news flow environment, several technical elements are advocating the potential start of a new short-term bullish trend for the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index.

Fig. 1: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 13 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Percentage of Hang Seng Index component stocks above 200-day MA as of 12 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bullish bias above 24,915 short-term pivotal support, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 25,520, 25,750, and 25,890 (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

• The price action of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index staged a bullish breakout above its 20-day moving average on Tuesday, 12 August, which suggests the potential start of a new short-term bullish impulsive uptrend phase.
• The medium-term and major uptrend phases remain intact for the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index as price actions continued to oscillate within a major ascending channel from the January 2024 low and a medium-term ascending channel from the 2 June 2025 low.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD has continued to trend steadily upwards above its centerline since Tuesday, 12 August, which supports the emergence of a new short-term bullish impulsive uptrend phase.
• Market breadth of the Hang Seng Index has also improved as the percentage of its component stocks trading above their respective key 200-day moving averages has increased from 1 August print of 82% to 88% as of Tuesday, 12 August (see Fig. 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at the 24,915 key short-term support negates the bullish tone to reinstate another round of minor choppy corrective decline sequence to retest the next intermediate supports at 24,790/24,725 and 24,600.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.3350 resistance.
• A short-term bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3440 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD climbed higher above 1.1620.
• Crude Oil prices declined below the $65.50 and $65.00 levels.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound found support near 1.3140 and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. GBP/USD climbed above the 1.3250 and 1.3350 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3589 swing high to the 1.3139 low. The pair even settled above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and tested the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair now faces resistance near the 1.3500 level. The next key resistance sits near the 1.3540 level. A close above the 1.3540 level could set the pace for another increase.

In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.3600 resistance, above which the bulls could aim for a move toward 1.3660. On the downside, immediate support is near the 1.3440 level. There is also a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3440 on the same chart.

The next key support sits near 1.3400. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.3350 support zone.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a recovery wave, and the bulls might soon aim for a move toward the 1.1750 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Fed's Goolsbee speech.
• Fed's Bostic speech.
• EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change.

Ethereum’s rally has gathered strong pace and the cryptocurrency is now on track towards its record high. The move comes as Bitcoin remains stuck in consolidation, unable for now to decisively break its own record, as traders await the next catalyst.

Both assets are drawing support from the improved clarity around US cryptocurrency policy. However, Ethereum’s outperformance appears tied to larger institutional inflows, with big investors playing catch-up. In particular, Ethereum’s dominant role in stablecoin infrastructure leaves it uniquely positioned to benefit as digital dollar transactions expand under a more certain regulatory regime.

Technically, Ethereum’s near-term outlook stays bullish while above 4,163.97 support. Firm break of 4,863.75 record high would open the way toward 100% projection of 2,110.58 to 3,940.08 from 3,353.16 at 5,128.66.

On the broader horizon, a clean break above 4,163.97 also sets up a medium term move move toward 138.2% projection of 878.5 to 4,092.55 from 1,382.55 at 5,824.36.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is likely to see more consolidation below 123,231 in the near term. The broader outlook remains bullish while above 111,889 support, with the long-term uptrend expected to resume sooner or later.

However, Bitcoin may face strong resistance just below 100% projection of 49,008 to 109,571 from 74,373 at 134,936, which could act as a cap before any sustained move higher.

Gold prices have seen whipsaw price action today in light of US inflation data and ongoing tariff developments. The precious metal did take out yesterday's low and continues to edge lower, but whipsaw price action as short while ago saw Gold return to the $3350/oz handle.

US CPI Inflation Data

The US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for July came in mostly as expected. Headline inflation increased by 0.2% compared to last month and 2.7% compared to last year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year.

Looking at the details, energy prices dropped by 1.1% from the previous month, while food prices stayed the same. For products most affected by tariffs, the impact seems mild for now. Core goods (excluding cars) increased by 0.2% in July, which is a slower rise compared to the 0.55% jump in June. This suggests that companies are currently absorbing most of the extra costs from tariffs.

Some specific changes: appliance prices surprisingly fell by 0.9%, clothing prices went up slightly by 0.1%, sporting goods increased by 0.4%, and furniture prices rose by 0.9%.

It would appear that any inflationary impact expected from tariffs thus far are largely absorbed within US corporate profit margins.Also frontloading ahead of tariff deadlines may be keeping prices in check.

The question going forward is now whether companies will continue to absorb increasing costs or will it be passed to consumers.

The impact on gold was interesting with an initial move higher followed by fresh daily lows and a test of key support at 3334. Gold should in theory rise, given that the inflation print only helps a Fed rate cut in September.

President Trump Rules Out Tariffs on Gold Bars

Tariffs will not be placed on gold bars, according to a statement by Trump on Monday, ending uncertainty that had caused panic in the gold markets last week.

Last Friday, gold futures prices hit a record high on reports of potential US tariffs on 1kg gold bars, which would have impacted Switzerland, a major gold exporter.

Following Trump’s statement, US gold futures fell 2.4% to $3,407 per ounce, while spot gold dropped 1.2% to $3,357. The Swiss Association of Precious Metals Producers welcomed the news but called for a formal decision to ensure stability.

A White House official said an executive order is being prepared to address misinformation about gold tariffs

Gold Prices Moving Forward

Looking at Gold over the medium-term and none of these events served as a catalyst for the precious metal. For now that 3500 handle seems to be unattainable as every bullish rally seems to be making a lower high the most recent of which occurred around 3407.

The failure to gain acceptance above the 3400 handle does leave the precious vulnerable to further downside.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold on a two-hour timeframe is also flashing bearish signs.

There was a short-term ascending trendline which has been broken, with resistance being provided by the 100-day MA.

If the 100-day MA holds firm further downside could materialize. Immediate support rests around the 3330 handle with a break below opening up a retest of the swing high at 3314 and then of course the 3300.

A move higher has significant hurdles to clear in the short-term. First we have the 100-day MA at 3361 before the 50-day MA at 3373 and then of course the psychological 3400 handle.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, August 12, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 67% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.

After a rough month of July taking the most traded Major pair from 1.1830 highs to a 4-handle correction, the NFP report at the beginning of the month led a huge wave of higher mean-reversion – An end-July daily double top on the pair had brought fresh technical fuel to sell the Euro.

August 1st marked lows at 1.13915, with oversold daily levels and an over-extended US Dollar created a perfect recipe for consequential dip buying in EURUSD.

The pair is now trying to reach the 1.17 psychological level amid another fresh wave of US Dollar selling.

Positive data releases for the pair have worked towards bullish fundamentals, allowing fresh buying to take place.

This morning's US CPI in line report saw further pricing of FED cuts for the September meeting – with the Eurozone main policy rate staying put at 2% for the past two meetings, Markets expect rate differentials between the Euro and the US Dollar to converge further.

Euro buyers seem to discard the miss in the Eurozone consumer sentiment as Markets put more emphasis on the Dollar weakness theme.

For those who haven't seen, the mid-tier data release saw a weaker than expected 25.1 Eurozone ZEW Consumer sentiment vs 28.1 estimate.

Let's now turn to the EURUSD technicals to spot if buyers have enough strength to break the 1.17 handle amid the broader USD weakness.

The current Daily picture for Forex Majors

FX Major Watchlist, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

There has been some heavy selling in the US Dollar after the data release, leading to most major currencies appreciate except for the Loonie getting dragged down.

The Dollar index touched 97.90 lows and has now weakly reverted above 98.00. A failure to retest higher levels points to further USD weakness (for the time being at least)

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD Daily Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair is up close to 0.50% on the session, with the morning daily candle trying to break out of a multi-day consolidation.

Buyers stepped in at the 50-Day MA to bring EURUSD to current levels. This moving average, currently standing at 1.16160 is a key barometer for bull/bear strength.

RSI Momentum is back above neutral and turning higher, however more work needs to be done for bulls to push the pair higher.

Let's analyze shorter timeframes to see why.

EURUSD 4H Chart

EURUSD 4H Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

As long as buyers don't break the intermediate highs (1.16990), the momentum is more rangebound than upward trending.

Despite this morning's push using the 50-period MA as support, the 4H MA-200 is flattening indicating indecision – This technical formation also coincides with the few overlapping bull and bear candles, generally indicating rangebound action.

Furthermore, this morning's highs are forming a shorter timeframe double-top on the currency pair.

EURUSD would need a further boost from USD selling to push above 1.17 – Above 1.17 however, there isn't much resistance before the 2025 highs 1.18 Zone.

EUR/USD Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.17 psychological level (coincides with daily highs)
• 1.1760 to 1.18 2025 highs resistance zone
• 1.1830 2025 top

Support Levels

• Current Pivot Zone 1.16 to 1.1650
• 1.15 Psychological Level
• 1.1350 to 1.14 Support 2

EURUSD 1H Chart

EURUSD 1H Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking even closer to the hourly charts, we see how well defined the intraday range is between the 1.1590 to 1.16 range lows and the 1.1680 to 1.17 range highs.

Look for breakouts both ways to mark new momentum, however, the action looks more rangebound in the immediate picture.

Safe Trades!

Ethereum: ⬆️ Buy

• Ethereum rising inside impulse wave (3)
• Likely to rise to resistance level 5000.00

Ethereum continues to rise inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which previously broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 4400.00 and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from June.

The breakout of this resistance zone strengthened the bullish pressure on Ethereum – accelerating the active impulse wave (3).

Ethereum can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 5000.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said in a speech today that with the economy still showing momentum, business optimism rising, and inflation remaining above Fed’s 2% goal, it is appropriate to keep monetary policy “modestly restrictive” for now.

Schmid noted that while higher tariffs appear to have had only a limited effect on inflation so far, he sees this as a reason to maintain the current policy stance rather than an opportunity to ease.

He stressed that his view is not a “wait-and-see” approach but rather a data-backed assessment of the need to stay restrictive. In conversations with business contacts, Schmid said growth remains solid and inflation “too high,” reinforcing his position that policy should not be loosened yet.

Full speech of Fed's Schmid here.