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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7844; (P) 1.7891; (R1) 1.7942; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.7972 resistance should resume the whole rally from 1.7245 through 1.8094 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.70; (P) 170.44; (R1) 170.96; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. While fall from 173.87 short term top could extend lower, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 172.36 resistance will bring retest of 173.87 first. However, sustained break of 168.97 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 168.80) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.79; (P) 195.67; (R1) 196.29; More...

GBP/JPY's fall from 199.96 short term top continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to 193.99 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 199.96 at 193.99). Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 196.51 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. However, sustained break of 193.99 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Yen continues to outperform in the FX market this week so far, drawing strong support from the ongoing slide in US Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield slipped to close at 4.2% overnight, as Fed rate cut bets gaining traction. Market consensus is solidifying around the idea that Fed will deliver at least two rate cuts this year, with some pricing in the possibility of a third. While that sounds aggressive, it still aligns broadly with the Fed’s latest dot plot, which showed a median year-end rate of 3.9% — roughly 50bps below the current target range of 4.25–4.50%. The dovish shift is not much inconsistent with official guidance. For now, much depends on the strength of upcoming US data, with ISM Services PMI due later today offering the next key signal.

Sterling is currently the second strongest major this week, benefiting from broad Euro and Swiss Franc weakness. However, GBP strength is relative, and the currency still faces a key test later this week with BoE’s policy decision. The BoE is expected to deliver another 25bps cut, but the focus will be on the vote split and inflation forecasts amid last month’s upside CPI surprise. Swiss Franc is languishing near the bottom of the performance table, alongside Euro and Kiwi. Commodity currencies and Dollar are mixed in the middle in this early part of the week

On the trade front, tensions remain despite some diplomatic progress. The EU has postponed a package of countermeasures for six months, as it is working with the US to finalize a joint statement on tariffs . However, key disagreements remain — particularly around US tariffs on EU automotive and strategic sectors, which were left untouched in Washington’s July 31 executive order.

In Asia, Japan’s lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is heading to Washington today to push for the implementation of the agreed tariff reduction on Japanese autos. The US had pledged to lower duties to 15% from 27.5%, but formalization via executive order is still pending.

India is also in the spotlight after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs in response to its Russian oil purchases. New Delhi defended its position, noting that Russian imports only began after Europe diverted traditional suppliers during the war. India accused the US and EU of hypocrisy, stating their own trade with Russia is not similarly constrained by strategic necessity — a sign that political heat may remain in focus even as markets try to look past it.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.62%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.27%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.53%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.034 at 1.477. Overnight, DOW rose 1.34%. S&P 500 rose 1.47%. NASDAQ rose 1.95%. 10-year yield fell -0.020 to 4.200.

BoJ minutes hint at hikes post-tariff deal, AUD/JPY extends decline

BoJ’s June meeting minutes, released today, confirmed that several policymakers were open to resuming rate hikes once trade uncertainty subsides. While the minutes are somewhat dated — the meeting took place before the announcement of the US–Japan trade agreement — they reveal a growing consensus that the central bank may return to a normalization path sooner than previously expected. Markets are now turning to Friday’s Summary of Opinions from the more recent July meeting, which should reflect a more upbeat outlook following the tariff deal.

Some BoJ members noted that as wages remain firm and inflation slightly exceeds expectations, the Bank would likely "shift away from the current wait-and-see approach and consider resuming rate hikes, if trade friction de-escalates" Others emphasized that while the BoJ should pause rate hikes for now due to uncertainty, it must stay “flexible and nimble,” ready to resume hikes depending on US policy and global developments.

Yen continues to strengthen this week, underpinned by falling US Treasury yields and a pickup in BoJ tightening expectations. In contrast, the Australian Dollar is under pressure as markets increasingly price in another RBA rate cut next week. The shift follows last week’s soft Q2 CPI data, which undercut arguments for extended policy pauses and revived dovish speculation.

Technically, a short term top should be in place at 97.41 in AUD/JPY with breach of 55 D EMA (now at 95.08). Sustained trading below the EMA will bring AUD/JPY further lower to 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 97.41 at 93.06, as a correction to the rise from 86.03. Nevertheless, break of 95.85 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

China’s Caixin Services PMI surges to 52.6, on stronger demand and renewed optimism

China’s Caixin Services PMI jumped sharply from 50.6 to 52.6 in July, well ahead of expectations at 50.4, marking the fastest pace of expansion since May 2024. PMI Composite, owever, fell from 51.3 to 50.8 as dragged down by weak manufacturing.

According to S&P Global’s Jingyi Pan, the rise was driven by better domestic demand and a notable improvement in external demand, with new export business expanding for the first time in three months. Business sentiment also improved, reaching the highest level since March.

Firms also began hiring again, albeit mostly part-time. Importantly, companies felt confident enough to raise output charges for the first time in six months — a sign that inflation pressures are being more easily passed on to clients.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.79; (P) 195.67; (R1) 196.29; More...

GBP/JPY's fall from 199.96 short term top continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to 193.99 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 199.96 at 193.99). Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 196.51 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. However, sustained break of 193.99 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

BoJ’s June meeting minutes, released today, confirmed that several policymakers were open to resuming rate hikes once trade uncertainty subsides. While the minutes are somewhat dated — the meeting took place before the announcement of the US–Japan trade agreement — they reveal a growing consensus that the central bank may return to a normalization path sooner than previously expected. Markets are now turning to Friday’s Summary of Opinions from the more recent July meeting, which should reflect a more upbeat outlook following the tariff deal.

Some BoJ members noted that as wages remain firm and inflation slightly exceeds expectations, the Bank would likely "shift away from the current wait-and-see approach and consider resuming rate hikes, if trade friction de-escalates" Others emphasized that while the BoJ should pause rate hikes for now due to uncertainty, it must stay “flexible and nimble,” ready to resume hikes depending on US policy and global developments.

Yen continues to strengthen this week, underpinned by falling US Treasury yields and a pickup in BoJ tightening expectations. In contrast, the Australian Dollar is under pressure as markets increasingly price in another RBA rate cut next week. The shift follows last week’s soft Q2 CPI data, which undercut arguments for extended policy pauses and revived dovish speculation.

Technically, a short term top should be in place at 97.41 in AUD/JPY with breach of 55 D EMA (now at 95.08). Sustained trading below the EMA will bring AUD/JPY further lower to 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 97.41 at 93.06, as a correction to the rise from 86.03. Nevertheless, break of 95.85 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

China’s Caixin Services PMI jumped sharply from 50.6 to 52.6 in July, well ahead of expectations at 50.4, marking the fastest pace of expansion since May 2024. PMI Composite, owever, fell from 51.3 to 50.8 as dragged down by weak manufacturing.

According to S&P Global’s Jingyi Pan, the rise was driven by better domestic demand and a notable improvement in external demand, with new export business expanding for the first time in three months. Business sentiment also improved, reaching the highest level since March.

Firms also began hiring again, albeit mostly part-time. Importantly, companies felt confident enough to raise output charges for the first time in six months — a sign that inflation pressures are being more easily passed on to clients.

Full China Caixin PMI services release here.

Key Highlights

• Gold started a fresh increase above the $3,350 resistance.
• It now faces a major hurdle at $3,400 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil prices declined below the $68.20 support zone.
• EUR/USD is recovering higher from the 1.1400 support zone.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold prices formed a base above $3,325 and started a fresh increase. The bulls gained strength and were able to push the price above the $3,350 resistance.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price settled above the $3,350 level, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). There was a move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,438 swing high to the $3,268 low.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $3,400 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,438 swing high to the $3,268 low.

The next major resistance sits near the $3,420 level. The main barrier could be $3,432. A clear move above the $3,432 resistance could open the doors for more upsides. The next major resistance could be $3,440, above which the price could rally toward the milestone level of $3,450.

On the downside, initial support is near the $3,365 level. The first key support is $3,350. The next major support is near the $3,340 level. The main support is now $3,315.

A downside break below the $3,315 support might call for more downsides. The next major support is near the $3,300 level.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price shows many bearish signs and could decline further below the $66.00 support zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• Euro Zone Services PMI for July 2025 – Forecast 51.2, versus 51.2 previous.
• UK Services PMI for July 2025 – Forecast 51.2, versus 51.2 previous.
• US Services PMI for July 2025 – Forecast 55.2, versus 55.2 previous.
• US ISM Services Index for July 2025 – Forecast 51.5, versus 50.8 previous

Trading in the region of $37.35700 in today’s session, Silver looks to continue bullish momentum shown in Friday’s session, rallying from monthly lows.

Silver (XAG/USD): Key takeaways from today’s session

• Writing after Friday’s weak job report, Silver has found support on a weakened dollar and as traders adjust expectations for Fed monetary policy
• Latest developments on trade tariffs are also boosting safe-haven inflows, benefiting silver pricing

Silver (XAG/USD): Weak US labor data bodes well for precious metals

Having recently succumbed to short-term selling pressure from all-time highs made in late July, recent US jobs data has helped bolster precious metal pricing.

Missing expectations by some margin, coupled with some significant revisions to previous months, Friday’s nonfarm payroll represents not only a poor result, but poses a serious threat to previously held convictions that the US labor market is healthy.

This goes double for the Fed, who have used the perceived health of the US labor market as a reason to defer the lowering of rates.

Meanwhile, POTUS Donald Trump claims the jobs numbers have been doctored for political gain, firing BLS official Erika McEntarfer. If nothing else, this raises questions on how future economic data will be recieved by markets alike.

At least one outcome has been a defiant increase in rate cut bets, with market ovewhelming predicting the Fed will cut in their upcoming decision, which is a undeniable positive for silver pricing.

CME FedWatch, 04/08/2025

Putting things in perspective, silver, previous metals in general, boast one of the best yearly performances of all asset classes bar crypto, even while US rates have have been maintained at ~4.50% since December of last year.

Silver (XAG/USD): Commitment to reciprocal tariffs silver positive

In a relationship well studied by the market, recent developments surrounding tariffs are safe-haven flows, weakening the dollar, and ultimately increasing silver pricing.

Most recently, Trump has renewed his commitment to reciprocal tariffs, and although revised lower than first planned, the White House remains committed to a new era of protectionism for US domestic industries.

This time, it would seem that Brazil is one of the worst-affected countries, and is now subject to a 50% tariff on all US-bound imports since August 1st, since a formal trade agreement between the two nations was not made.

While the eventual outcome of trade tariffs, for better or worse, is yet to be fully understood, any increase in market uncertainty surrounding US trade continues to boost silver pricing.

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical analysis (04/08/2025)

Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView 04/08/2025

• On the daily timeframe, silver currently approaches an area of resistance at ~37.29833. If able to break and hold, this can also act as an area of support
• Having broke the upward trendline, silver will need to stablise before price is able to push higher

The session is risk-on as market participants already seem to be moving on from the consequent miss and downwards revisions to the NFP data – and this was just Friday.

Some questions remain on the current state of affairs as safe-havens have also appreciated on the session, but the rally is still way more consequent in risk-assets.

Cryptos haven't rejected the positive mood around markets as most digital assets are green today, and by a decent margin.

They were leading on the way down after starting to correct last Wednesday and most coins are now aiming to catch up to their recent highs.

Bitcoin wicked on its support zone at 112,000 and now trades around the $115,000 level – Sentiment will need to be watched closely to monitor potential bull traps, but for now the day is green.

Taking a look at the ongoing session for Cryptocurrencies

Current session in Cryptocurrencies, August 4, 2025 – Source: Finviz

The picture is very green for now, with cryptos up between 0.50% for BTC to 7% for Litecoin.

There has been some kind of small intraday top that has just formed though – let's take a look at Bitcoin and Ethereum to see if it has there is some more potential to the current move.

Bitcoin 4H Chart

Bitcoin 4H Chart, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

This weekend marked some touches to the $112,000 level serving as Main support which triggered some small buying.

Momentum is stalling a tid bit as the middle level of the downwards ATH descending channel is approaching.

Traders will need to be watch for the reactions at the current level:

Rejecting here shows a more bearish outlook (as prices would fail to breach the mid-line, a typical sign of buyer exhaustion) while consolidating here / breaking above would point to a test of the higher bounds of the channel around $118,500.

Levels to place on your charts:

Support Levels:

• lower bound of descending Channel $113,200
• Previous ATH Support $110,000 to $112,000
• $100,000 Major Support

Resistance Levels:

• $116,000 to 117,000 Pivot (confluence with 4H MA 50)
• $120,000 Resistance (+/- $300)
• Current ATH Resistance $121,000 to $123,000

Ethereum 4H Chart

Ethereum 4H Chart, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Ethereum has rallied strongly in the session, up at one point 4.30%.

Some sellers seem to be appearing at the 4H MA 50 at a confluence with the $3,700 resistance zone.

RSI is back from bearish to neutral but the imminent action is essential as the momentum seems to be stalling around here – Failing to pass above the neutral line gives a more bearish tilt.

Levels to place on your charts:

Support Levels:

• Overnight lows $3,483
• Pivot Zone 3,400 to 3,500
• Support around 3,250

Resistance Levels:

Immediate resistance Between $3,700 to $3,750

• 4H MA 50 $3721
• $3,946 Intermediate highs
• $4,090 December 2024 highs
• $4,870 All-time highs

Safe Trades!

Ethereum: ⬆️ Buy

• Ethereum reversed from the key support level 3400.00
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 3800.00

The Ethereum cryptocurrency recently reversed from the support zone between the key support level of 3400.00 (formerly a resistance level from January) and the upper trendline of the recently broken up channel from May.

This support zone was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from July.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3800.00.